Details

Published on Sunday, 12 May 2019 22:20

Giro d'Italia St 3

Vinci - Orbetello

Monday 13th May, 220kms

Stage 3 is a celebration of the 500th anniversary of the death of Leonardo Da Vinci, as they set out from the town bearing his name. It looks like another day for the sprinters, with the pan-flat last 20kms run-in to Orbetello. 

There might be a little Cat 4 bump 38kms from the finish, but that shouldn't cause anyone any problems and we should see a very v finish to the race as they sprint along the spit of land at the side of the Nature Reserve lagoon from Albinia to Giannela. 

Stage 2 Review

Got it wrong with the hill, from the interrupted viewing I had of today's action it looks like they just didn't go hard enough at the front, teams were just happy to control things. Nizzolo was unlucky to puncture 10kms from home, blowing our winning double and treble, there's no doubt he'd have beaten Modolo who finished way down the field. Got the two main match bet fields spot on though, Sbaragli was top 10, Canola was well down.. And Roglic finished near the front, Jungels eased off after doing a job, as I hoped. Saved the damage to just 1pt.

Ackermann looked very strong and fast, Bora controlled things well and when he kicked with 150m to go he was just way too strong. Ewan was in the perfect spot, got to the front but just didn't have the power to hold off the big German. Viviani finished fast, but came too late. Démare had a team-mate come down in the last kilometre, which didn't help his cause, he started from too far back though and wasn't fast enough. But it's points on the board for later hopefully!

Nothing else to report really. 

The Route

The profile is rolling and flattens out towards the finish. The route crosses the hills around Siena before reaching the plain around Grosseto. After one last hill 38kms from the finish, the Poggio l’Apparita categorised climb, the final kilometres leading to Orbetello are pan-flat.

The last 15km roll along on flat, broad roads, with a good tarmac surface. With 15kms to go they hit the narrow spit of land linking Albinia to Giannella and with the road being so exposed and out on the sea effectively, we could see the winds whip up and cause havoc - you can be sure some teams will be looking to put the pressure on and try to create echelons and force some splits.

After the Flamme Rouge, the route turns left and then right, leading to the home straight (on 7.5 m wide asphalt road). The last bend is 400 m from the finish.

Contenders and Favourites

This should be a straight-forward sprint battle, that is, unless the winds cause some problems as they hit the last 20kms or so on the coast. With Bob Jungels, Peter Serry, Florian Senechal and Fabio Sabatini here for DQS, you can be sure that they will try to put the hammer down and see what happens.

The weather for Monday at the moment is for it to possiby rain in the afternoon just as they are coming to the closing stages of this race, but more crucially, there are winds of up to 40kmph forecast to whip at them from the north-east. That makes it a cross/tail-wind for most of the day, but as they enter the last 38kms or so it comes a strong tail-wind. But as they turn left with just over 5kms to go it will now be a full-on cross-wind coming at them from their left-hand side. 

Masters of the cross-wind, DQS will know exactly when and what to do and I think they will put the hammer down in the last 5kms and should have the peloton strung out. With about 1,800m to go they turn left and straight in to a headwind, all the way to the line. If a team has blown things up and has put some riders out the back door in echelons, they might not be getting back on inside the last 2kms. 

They will want to try to get rid of the likes of Ewan and Gaviria, and anyone else like Modolo and Marezcko who might struggle in the cross-winds with teams that are unable to protect them properly. The GC men will have to stay awake too though, we've seen plenty of situations in the past where splits in cross-winds have cost GC men time, it's very early in the race to be throwing away time. 

Again, Bora will be looking to also blow things up with DQS, maybe even go so hard they put Viviani under pressure.. it would be a big ask with DQS looking after him, but maybe not impossible, he can be quite flakey and has been known to be caught out, even when his own team are leading him out, like that stage won by Alaphilippe in Tirreno. If it is a straight out sprint with all the sprinters involved, then it looks like a battle between Ackermann, Viviani, Gaviria, Ewan, Démare, Nizzolo, Modolo, Marezcko, Sbaragli, Rojas, Belletti and Canola. 

Based on today, you'd think we have to get behind Ackermann and Bora tomorrow, they should control things again, string things out in the last 5kms and deliver Ackermann to power to victory. He looked very strong and will be full of confidence now. 

Elia Viviani could be a big danger though, he finished quite fast today but had made the mistake of getting on Gaviria's wheel, but Gaviria was never going to win today, he even finished the last 50m or so of the sprint sitting down, he was pretty knackered. Maybe the tough stage took a lot out of both of their legs after all. DQS will be keen to get Viviani back on track though, so it could be very close. 

Caleb Ewan was leading with 100m to go, 75m to go, but with about 50m to go he was passed by a charging Ackermann. Lotto did a good job to get him in position, he hit the front at the right time it seemed but just didn't have the stamina to hold it, he too might have had the sting taken out of his legs by the climbing. I think he could have a big chance tomorrow - as long as he doesn't get lost in the cross-winds!

If he can position himself as well as he did today, and hit the front with 150m or so to go, his low sprinting position will be much more advantageous than Ackermann's big frame in cutting through the headwind on the finishing straight. There's 6/1 with Skybet and that's a decent enough 'bet to nothing' as I think it's unlikely he'll be out of the frame if he sprints as well as he did today. 

Arnaud Démare had his mojo rattled a little in the last kilometre when Olivier Le Gac came down after a tussle with Davide Cimolai, he could have had a decent leadout in to the last 300m if Le Gac had stayed upright. In the end he started too far back and never really got closer. He might get a better leadout tomorrow, but will he have the speed? It doesn't look like he has enough of a kick to beat the top three guys here on a flat finish like this. 

Giacomo Nizzolo was very unlucky today, expect him to be involved tomorrow, but I don't think he'll be troubling the top guys. Davide Cimolai had a very lucky escape when Le Gac went down, riding over the feet of a barrier but staying upright. He sprinted well to finish 6th, it bodes well for his points jersey ambitions, he might be one of the last men standing in Verona.

Viacheslav Kuztensov did well to finish 7th today, hard to see him getting any closer than that, and Jasper de Buyst was the recipient of a wheel change by Thomas de Gendt late on when he punctured which kept him in the race and he did extremely well to finish 8th. There's lot of others who could be fighting for the final places in the top 10 like Canola, Gibbons, Sbaragli etc but I can't see them troubling the top 3. 

Should be another close sprint then, we'll probably see the same guys involved in the top 6 but I'm willing to give Ewan a go, I thought he did well today and could nab it this time. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Caleb Ewan at 6/1 with Skybet

Matchbets:

Ewan to beat Gaviria - 3pts at 5/6

Sbaragli to beat Canola - 2pts at 4/6 (sticking with this one, the stats are still with Sbaragli)

Demare to beat Nizzolo and De Buyst to beat Sabatini - 2pts on the double at 5/4