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Published on Thursday, 04 May 2017 18:10

Giro - Other Markets 

A selection of other bets that caught my eye..

I've done the Favourites and who I think will win the Sprints jersey, the KOM jersey and the Young Riders jersey. Here I take a look at some of the other markets that are available such as Team Classification and more. 

There's a lot of different bets available for the Giro and I've taken a look at the ones I'm interested in. I'm not saying by any means back them all, but have a look through, see which ones you agree with and stake accordingly! I may add some more bets here as the race goes on and we start to get a picture of who's going well and who's not. 

Team Classification

The team classification is always an interesting market to try to predict, you have the GC favourites teams like Movistar and Sky who will have riders at the top of the GC and you will have teams like AG2R and Cannondale who may not have the GC winner in their ranks but will have a number of riders who will be regularly on the attack, finishing in the top 20 in a number of stages, sometimes with quite a large gap. Astana were the 11/10 favourites last year and they duly obliged, but not by a whole lot, only 6'57" ahead of Cannondale in 2nd place, with Movistar in 3rd, 21 minutes back. 

It's a bit more open this year, with Team Sky the 5/2 favourites, Cannondale at 4/1, AG2R at 5/1 and Movistar at 11/2. Sky are surely going to be right up there based on the fact that Landa and Thomas are two of the top favourites for the race, and should be right up there on all the key stages. The back-up team of Ellissonde, Rosa, Henao, Deignen etc are the problem for me though, I can see them burning themselves out quite early on some of the key climbs and maybe losing a lot of time. Also, I don't think the rest of the team will be given much freedom to go on random attacks on quieter days, they days that breaks might succeed and give a nice time gap for the winning riders. 

Cannondale on the other hand will have a team of wild cannons, attacking when they want, climbing with, or close to the best and I think generally they will be finishing with a lot more riders high up the ranks than Sky will. Dombrowski, Formolo, Rolland, Woods, Villela, Carthy, Howes - all will ride well in the mountains, all are capable of being in multiple breaks along the way. And not only that, I wouldn't be surprised to see two or maybe three of them in some of the breaks. I think they should aim for the team prize, while supporting Formolo's attempt at the top ten. Keep it steady, ride with him, get a good few guys home in the top 40. 

Movistar obviously will have a say in this competition too like last year, Quintana is expected to win it and the likes of Izagirre, Amador, Anacona and Herrada will go ok on the mountain stages as they look to look after Quintana. Izagirre and Anacona are also guys they might send up the road in attacks if someone else is leading and some other team has the responsibility to control the race (for example Tom Dumoulin after stage 10s TT).. Beyond the five of them though the other guys will lose a lot of time in the mountains, but if some of these five burn out on earlier climbs (like the Stelvio before the Umbrail Pass) then Quintana might be left all on his own and they might come in a long way back. They collectively wouldn't be the best team in the TTs either though, they could lose a lot of time over two TTs. 

AG2R are more or less the same price as Movistar around 11/2 and I just don't get it. Ok, Pozzovivo should go well, but the rest are either young, inexperienced guys or old workhorses. I can't have them winning it, I just don't understand their price. 

Bahrain Merida lack the stregth in depth required to win this compeition, besides Nibali they are lacking quality climbing talent, with maybe Javi Moreno and Gio Visconti their best finishers most days. BMC could go ok too, it might all depend on how Dennis goes in the mountains, as we know he will go well in the TTs (He has a good chance of winning both of them in my opinion). With Rosskopf, Hermans and Dillier also here they might do ok on most mountain stages, but they also have a number of guys who can get in winning breaks like Teuns, Quinziato or Ventoso.

Astana with 8 riders is going to be a struggle, and FDJ lacks strength in depth too, besides Reichenbach and Pinot they will struggle to get other riders consistently high enough to score well. 

Overall, though I think it could be tight between Sky, Movistar and Cannondale and it may even change hands a few times by the final stage, but I'm leaning towards Cannondale at 4/1 with Skybet, I think they should be top 2 at the worst and Sky are offering each-way terms of 1/3 the odds for the first two, Bet365 and PP are not offering each-way betting at all. 

2pts each-way on Cannondale-Drapac at 4/1 with Skybet

Top 10 Finish

Rui Costa - 7/1: I've already detailed this one in my overall preview, I think at 7/1 a rider of Rui's class should be backed. 1pt at 7/1 with Bet365

Davide Formolo - 11/8: I also outlined this one in my overall preview, I think he will go very well here and is capable of a repeat of his Top 10 showing in the Vuelta last year. He was 13/8 but is now 11/8 but it's still worth a bet I think. 

Domenico Pozzovivo - 10/11: Pozzo is capable of staying with the best climbers on most of these stages and is looking better than he has in a few seasons right now. I think he has a good team around him and given my reservations about some of the others in the betting above him (Zakarin, Jungels, Landa) I think he could sneak in in 8th or 9th place. 

Top 6 Finish

I really liked Adam Yates for a top 6 at evens on Betfair, I speculatively put in a back order at 2.4 instead to see if anyone would take it, and they did.. I recommend 3pts on Adam at 2.4 if you can get matched there too, I'd take down to Evens. 

Overall Head to Heads

As per my overall preview, here are my overall head to head picks. 

Yates to beat Mollema - 2pts at 6/5

Pozzovivo to beat Jungels - 3pts at 11/10

Monfort to beat Kangert - 2pts at 5/4

Dumoulin to beat Zakarin - 3pts at 4/5, all with 365

Rider Stage Wins

How many stage wins will these riders achieve? I picked four last year and they all landed for a profit of 10pts, hopefully we can do something similar this year: 

Vincenzo Nibali to NOT win a stage 4/6: ballsy or stupid? Well I think that it's not a bad price, I think he will really have his work cut out to win a mountain stage against the opposition here. Quintana and others like Yates or Thomas would have the beating of him in tight mountain-top finishes, and he's unlikely to win solo unless he is after falling so far down the GC that they let him go in a break. The only risk to this is that he rides inspired one day in memory of Scarponi, or divebombs down one of the descents to the finishes, such as on the Queen stage to Bormio off the Umbrail Pass, but he'll have tough competition for the honours on the Queen stage. Small bet of 3pts, can cover it in-play some day if it looks like he might be on for a stage win.

Pierre Rolland to NOT win a stage- 1/2: I think Rolland is going really well at the moment, but he's an infrequent winner and I have a feeling he might be asked to reign it in a bit in support of a top ten target for Formolo. I think even if he does get in breakaways he might find one or two too good for him, and with a number of the breakaway finishing at the bottom of descents, he's at a slight disadvantage there too as he is a terrible descender. 5pts on that. 

Kristian Sbaragli to not win a stage - 2/7: I can't see him besting any of the sprinters in any of the key sprint stages and even if he stays in the race after a lot of others have abandoned he will find it almost impossible to win any of the last 8 stages. 7pts on that, free money. 

Luis Leon Sanchez to win a stage - 5/4: I've picked him for the KOM prize, I think he will be active in this race and is a master finisher from break-away positions. He's not that frequent a winner any more, but he's riding well this year and I think he'll be inspired to try to win a stage for Scarponi. Stages 11, 15, 17, 20 are all stages I think might suit him. 2pts on that.  

King of the Mountains Head-to-Head 

Pinot to beat Nibali - I just have a feeling that Pinot will finish ahead of Nibali in a lot of the climbs where they come in together, he's got a better finishing kick and will sprint for places and as a result, points. Also, I wouldn't be surprised to see him kick on at the top of some of the big climbs to try to get a bit of a head start on descents, Nibali can afford to hang back a little as he's a better descender. This could happen on stage 11, 16, 20 and maybe others. It looks a good bet at 11/10 to me so I'm having 3pts, but also adding Quintana to beat Kruijswijk in a double to make it 1.86/1 - 2pts on that too. 

Team Classification Matchbets

BMC to beat FDJ - 2pts at 11/10 - I think BMC have a stronger overall team here and will do a lot better in the TTs. 

Dimension Data to beat Bora Hansgrohe - 3.3pts at 8/11 - Dimension Data look like a team that are coming here with aggressive intent and have plenty of guys who will take time in breakaways and on the climbs. Bora look a weak climbing team, built around Bennett and Pelucchi's sprint chances. 

More might be added later!!