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Published on Thursday, 25 May 2017 23:12

Giro d'Italia St 20

Pordenone to Asiago

Saturday 27th May, 190kms 

The last chance saloon. The final day in the mountains, the last opportunity to move up in the GC if you are not a time triallist, and let's face it, not many of these guys are. But with 15kms to go from the top of the Foza, who can take the stage?

The Monte Grappa is a familiar climb for the Giro, last used in 2014 when they came up a different route on an individual TT, won coincidentally by Nairo Quintana. That day he beat Aru by just 17", but 3rd place Rigo Uran was 1'26" behind him. 5th place that day was Domenico Pozzovivo. They also climbed it in 2010 but they didn't go all the way to the summit. 

Well, we wanted action today and we got action today with the race exploding early on amid rumours and confusion that Nibali and Quintana had attacked while Dumoulin had stopped for a 'natural break'.. It was all a bit frantic for a while but came back together only for a group with our man Luis Leon, Bilbao, Rolland, Costa, and Henao involved. A second wave of attackers came out of the peloton in chase, including Landa, Plaza, Bussato and another 10 guys and they bridged to the leaders with 51kms to go, with the peloton 7 mins behind. 

Luis Leon attacked, he got 40 something seconds, but was caught and passed by Landa, Costa and Rolland and Landa indeed went on to take his stage victory finally after two close calls. And Rui, Rui, Rui... I knew I should've had a bet on him each-way, I basically talked myself in to it, but didn't back him and he landed 2nd place at 28/1.. And we were unlucky with Sanchez, he gave it a go coming home in 7th place, the story of our race.. Pinot won his 6/5 matchbet over Dumoulin, but unbelievably Formolo finished one place behind Reichenbach to bust the double. Sick as. 

Up front, Dumoulin finally started to crack, his rivals slowly started to turn the screw and it all exploded up the road, with Nibali and Quintana both taking time on him and Nairo slipping on the Pink jersey with just two stages left.. But he will need more time to secure the win, 38" is not going to be enough to hold off TomDum in the TT. Annoyingly, Pinot attacked from the GC mens group powerfully like I expected him to, and he came home alone in 11th place, with Pozzovivo and Zakarin also attacking and taking time. And rather incredibly there is just 90" separating the top 6 in a Grand Tour with just 2 stages to go, I can't recall such a close fight for victory, or indeed the top 3 in many a race. 

The Route

The stage starts from Pordenone which has already hosted 6 stages in the history of the Giro, and the first 100kms are on relatively flat roads. They run along at the foot of the Prealps in the province of Treviso, with a small little bump to get over in the Muro di Ca’ del Poggio after 37kms and an intermediate sprint in Feltre.

The route then gets serios as they start up the Monte Grappa, a brute at 24kms long, averaging 5.35%, but it's a very irregular climb that rises and drops in gradient numerous times along the way. It has featured recently in the Giro, conquered in 2014 by Nairo Quintana and in 2010 by Ivan Basso. It's quite a narrow road, and is steep and sharp at first, then the gradient declines, with a few changes in slopes before the categorised summit.

A very long (26km) and technical descent follows, with several hairpins and the route then takes in the last climb in Foza, a climb being used in the Giro for the very first time. It is 14kms long in total, rising steadily at a 7% gradient, with a number of hairpins.

The final 15 km are rolling and wavy. The route descends slightly over the last 5 km, up to 400 m before the finish. The roads are wide and well paved outside the city centres. When entering Asiago (four times starting stage and four times arrival) , the peloton will encounter roundabouts and traffic dividers. There is a last bend 450 m before the finish line, and the home stretch, on 7-m wide asphalt road, has a mild uphill gradient.

Contenders

I think we'll get all out action on this stage from early on - the race is most definitely still up for grabs. The break will go with 2-3 Movistar,1-2 Sunweb, some Bahrain M and Cannondale riders possibly, and it should go within the first 40kms. There could be 20 guys or more in it, and it could well be that the peloton downs tools early on and they could get a big lead very quickly. But.. if the GC men decide that they want in on the action and want to fight for the 10 bonus seconds on the line, then they might well be all over that break from early on and may even try to infiltrate it and start attacking Dumoulin from as early as around the 100km mark when they start the Monte Grappa. Looking at what happened today, that seems the most likely outcome and I think the break could be doomed if they race the Monte Grappa really quickly. 

If anyone wants to take serious time back on their rivals they need to attack on the Monte Grappa. Riders can crack. Tom Dumoulin can crack - we saw it yesterday, and we saw it in the Vuelta in 2015 when Fabio Aru and Astana did a magnificent team job on him and stole the race from him. Not only stole the race off of him, but Dumoulin dropped from 1st to 6th he lost so much time with just one stage to go. I'm sure that is still hurting him a lot, he must have gone through agony in those closing kilometres as he found himself sliding down the GC.

But this is a very different TomDum to then. He's lighter, fitter, stronger, smarter. He has managed his efforts superbly well to avoid putting himself in to the red and has paced himself back to the leaders almost every time. Even yesterday, when many a guy would have blown up and lost minutes, Tom kept it within a winnable margin in the TT. 

To be honest, up until now, Movistar have looked incapable of pulling off what Astana did in the Vuelta, they have tried to be clever with men up the road, getting in breaks etc, but it just hasn't worked for them, by the time Quintana has come up to them, like on Thursday, they were already suffering and couldn't add any real extra kick to help him get away from the peloton.

And Nairo looked incapable of kicking away from his team-mates when he realised that they were not taking him away. It's just been wait, wait, wait from Nairo up until Thursday's stage when he decided to go with 53kms left, but that attack was pathetic, he barely got 100m and was pulled back in no time, tail between his legs. And again today, he was limp and flacid, incredibly disappointing from what we expected of the swash-buckling Columbian. 

Can he do it today? If he doesn't go on the Monte Grappa, forget it.. he'll then have confirmed that he is on a public training ride for the TDF and will have pulled off a disappointing deception on the race, his fans and cycling in general. He has to go on Monte Grappa and he needs to have allies like Nibali again. Nibali's podium is in danger from Pinot in the TT and he needs to gain time too.. but does Nibali go all-in so far out, when he knows he's got to probably make up 2 mins on TomDum to win the race? He may well do - we know he's a racer and gets better towards the end of Tours, we saw that with his win in the Giro last year. And we know he could... COULD on a really good day take the 43" he needs off of Quintana in the TT, or even better, if he goes to the finish on this stage and takes the stage win, he gets 10" bonus too. 

But he too looked tired and cooked today and on the final climb of stage 18 to Ortisei, attacking early with Nairo and struggling on the final climb too to make an impression. The finish doesn't suit him massively either though so I'm not sure it'll be a Nibali day. 

Thibaut Pinot was great again yesterday, attacking away from the dead wood that is the 'GC Challenge', sprinting up the hill in great style. If the break has been reeled in ahead of the Foza, I really fancy him to do something similar on this finish and attack away from the rest, I think he has a good chance tomorrow. 

Steven Kruijswijk collapsed again today on the final climb, he won't be making any impression tomorrow I'd think. Ilnur Zakarin has been going ok lately too and was strong with Pozzovivo yesterday, attacking away also and coming home in 13th, just 6" behind Pinot. He could be one that launches a big attack with 5kms to go on the Foza, he has a podium place potentially in his sights and is great at those late attacks. The final rolling section won't inconvenience him as much as others, but he could do with a partner in crime or two who can help them stay away.. possibly Pinot who is also going to be protecting his GC place. 

Mikel Landa had yet another hard day yesterday as he was part of the chasing group that bridged to the leaders and went on to win the stage in fine style.. surely he can't be on the attack again today? I didn't think so.. I thought 'job done' for him, stage win and the KOM jersey. But once again he's the favourite! That's the third day in a row I think he's been favourite, but there's a little bit more doubt today, he's 9/2 instead of the 9/4 I think he was yesterday. Clearly he's the strongest rider in the race and clearly he will be given latitude to attack again, the KOM jersey is sewn up, so there will be no battle there, and he has no GC battle to fight.. IF he gets away in a break that comes to the final climb with 3 mins lead, then he wins, he'll just ride away from all the other guys.. but if the GC men close down the break, then he probably won't be winning.

Domenico Pozzovivo has been very good in this race too without ever looking like he was going to win a stage. He may enjoy the Foza and he may get away with one or two other riders, but the run-in is the problem, he's not going to excel on that finish. 

Rui Costa is one of those also that could be either in the break, again, or possibly could hold on to the GC men over the Foza and would have a good chance on this finish. But as there is probably going to be an all-out GC war on the final climb I don't think he'll be hanging in there, he'll be dropped when the big attacks go. 

Adam Yates is another who has to attack though, he wants a top 10 finish and it's quite tight around the 9th, 10th and 11th placings so he will have to ride hard.. If he can get away with any attackers like Pinot or Zakarin he could well sprint to stage victory. He has been a bit disappointing and below the level I expected of him, but he has one last chance at redemption. He will do ok in the TT Sunday, but it will be more comfortable for him if he can gain a little time tomorrow. 

But Bob Jungels will be Yates's shadow today, he's only 28" behind him in the white jersey competition, and in fact he's the 4/5 favourite to take that prize as he'll take 30" or more off of Yates in the TT. Jungels did brilliantly yesterday to claw his way back to the GC leaders and finished with Yates and Quintana, he's clearly still got great legs. If he can stay with the leaders over the hard part of the climb, he could well launch a big powerful attack in that closing section and solo to victory.. It's a big ask though as Yates will be all over him, he may just be content to just mark Yates and then win it in the TT. In fact, I think that's the bet to have on him, back him to win the White jersey at 4/5 rather than the stage.  

Tejay Van Garderen was 80/1 to win that stage a few days ago, he's 20/1 to pull off only his second GT stage win. He could go in the break, he'll have the freedom to go, and he might be one to stay with Landa again and we know he can outsprint him now. But 20/1 though? I think I'd want 50/1 or bigger for him. 

Pierre Rolland, Omar Fraile, Ruben Plaza, Diego Rosa and Luis Leon - they are some of the strongest in the race and could all be in the break of the day again, but surely they must be getting tired now after the week they've had? There's no KOM to fight for any more, so it would be just for stage honours they would be working tomorrow... 

Another impossible juggling act to try to predict.. will the break make it, or will the GC men pull them back.. I gave the break every chance yesterday, but I think actually, today the GC men will be racing so hard from the start, and racing over the Monte Grappa so hard they will pull the break back in in time to make it a batle of the GC men. And I make Pinot my bet to take the win, he could have won yesterday had all the breakers not finished in front of him.. So FDJ will work, Movistar will work, Bahrain Merida will work and Pinot will  possibly skip away, either on his own or with the best climbers in the race, and then he'd be able to outsprint them too at the finish. You can't trust Quintana to do anything, same with Nibali and most of the rest of them, Pinot at least looks to have some fire in his legs still.  

Dumoulin is still 6/5 favourite to take the overall, and that looks like the bet to have.. although he will be under attack all day long possibly, the Monte Grappa and the Foza are not as hard as the Piancavalla and he may be able to limit his time losses to a manageable minute or two. .I think he'll still take 2 mins or more off of Nibali and Nairo so he won't panic too much. And the finish will allow him to time trial back over the last 15kms and claw back whatever time he's lost, so he should be in good shape going in to the TT tomorrow. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Thibaut Pinot at 11/2 with various. 

3pts win on Jungels to win the white jersey at 4/5 with various

3pts win on Dumoulin in the overall market at 6/5

Matchbets

Zakarin to beat Pozzovivo - 2pts at evens

Add Mollema to beat Reichenbach and Pinot to beat Dumoulin to make it a 9/4 treble.. 2pts on that too.