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Published on Monday, 22 May 2017 22:12

Giro d'Italia St 16

Rovetto to Bormio

Tuesday 23rd May, 222kms 

Back after the rest day and in to the crucial final week. Who would have predicted two weeks ago that Tom Dumoulin would hold such a commanding lead over Nairo Quintana with just six stages to go,. 

I don't think even Tom Dumoulin, in his wildest dreams, could have predicted where he sits as we head in to the final week, with a TT still to come on the final day. The Dutchman has been imperious though, destroying them all in the TT and then destroying them again on the climb to Oropa, gaining even more time on Quintana. 

As good as Dumoulin has been, the race so far has been pretty suited to him. The TT has put him ahead, and the gradient to Oropa actually suited his TT'ing skills, he put in a massive effort for 20 mins and that was a perfect situation for him to just grind his way back up to Quintana with the others in tow. And as impressive as Dumoulin has been, Quintana has been a bit 'Meh'.. ok he won on Blockhaus, but it wasn't all that impressive, and his performance on Oropa was pretty poor too, never really got away from  the rest and couldn't stay with them at the finish. Then he crashed on the descent between the two climbs today to add more stress to his situation. 

Pinot, Nibali, Zakarin and Mollema are still there or thereabouts and looking to stay in the top 10, but they haven't really shown a great deal yet to suggest they will be taking back a lot of time in the coming week. Kriujswijk has been a disappointment, Yates and Landa have been unlucky, but they are sure to add some drama and excitement to the stages to come. 

Stage 15 Wrapup

What a crazy stage we had again on Sunday, with the first two hours raced at over 52kmph and no break succeeding for well over 100kms, with Cannondale chasing down what looked like being the break of the day, only for the next break to go and Cannondale missed that one too. They really have been pathetic at getting in to breaks here, if they didn't have Rolland in the race we'd barely have seen them at the front of the race at all. 

And what a bonkers and brilliant end to the stage, with Luis Leon making a race of it by bridging to Rolland and the remnants of the original race, and holding a healthy lead for a while.. but Orica-Scott were having none of it and drove on at the front to reduce the lead enough so they were within sight as they approached the finale in Bergamo. Bahrian Merida attacked first, with Visconti, Jungels pushed hard, and suddenly it was just the GC top men who were left fighting for the win, all the puncheurs, sprinters and everyone else went out the back door. I don't think many saw a GC battle coming at the end of that stage, but it just goes to show once again who the strongest, and best protected riders in the race are. And it goes to show just how hard it has been to land a bet in this race so far.. it's been very frustrating. 

Nibali attacked, but incredibly the race came down to a sprint amongst the top GC candidates, with the brilliant Jungels proving the fastest. Also, incredibly, Nairo Quintana stole 6" back by sprinting to 2nd place, with Pinot pipping Yates to 3rd place. And that was despite crashing in the descent and having to stop again later to get a bike change. Tanel Kangert came a cropper in a horrible crash when he hit a traffic island sign, he has fallen out of the top10 too.  

The Route

The Queen stage across the Alps will feature a double pass over the Stelvio, first along the Bormio side, and then taking a first-ever climb up the Swiss side. The stage starts from Rovetta and initially the route climbs gently heading north-east, cutting across the Val Camonica as far as Malonno., where the first intermedieate sprint comes after 60kms. After passing through the intermediate sprint they start to tackle the Mortirolo Pass, from the along the southern side, as in 1990. The Mortirolo is a tough start to the day with an average gradient of 7.6% for 12.6kms, with gradients topping out at 16% in the last kilometres.

Then comes a narrow and very technical descent for 14kms leading to Grosio, where the route will run up the Adda River valley, passing through the finish town of Bormio that marks the beginning of a 100km circuit. First, the route climbs up the Stelvio Pass, which is this year's Cima Coppi for the highest point in the race. The Stelvio is also another brute,  climbing for 21.7kms at an average of 7.1% with some parts around 4.1%, but mostly between 7-8% and a pretty steady. Once over the top there is a very technical descent for 34kms leading to Prato allo Stelvio, and the circuit then enters Switzerland, heading for the Umbrailpass (Giogo di Santa Maria).

This is basically climbing the same mountain as the Stelvio, but from the Swiss side. The climb totals 13.5 km, at a steady 9% gradient, with peaks topping out at 12%. Another technical descent (with a few tunnels along the route) then leads all the way to Bormio, which has been a stage town at the Giro fourteen times already. Whoever crests the top first has only got 20kms left and they are almost entirely downhill. A little after the Flamme Rouge, the route takes a U-turn and levels out a little. They go through a number of bends in the last kilometre, including three sharp 90 degree turns, and finally on to the gently sloping finishing straight for the last 100m. 

Contenders

This is going to be a big day on a number of levels. It's going to be big for the KOM competition firstly, as there are a massive 150pts up for grabs today, and it could almost bring the competition to a close if someone takes all the points. The Mortirolo has been given a special prize this year in memory of Michele Scarponi, with double points awarded to the first over it, making it 70pts and the Stelvio is the Cima Coppi, which offers 45pts. This could be the day that Luis Leon goes on a points blitz as I pointed out in my jerseys preview, I think Astana, and Luis Leon in particular will want to take the Scarponi prize on the Mortirolo back to the Astana camp, and he could well carry on to take the points on the Stelvio, and possibly the Umbrailpass. 

It all depends on how the race is run again - we've seen far too many stages in recent grand tours where the main GC contenders seemingly couldn't care less about the breaks and just have their own battle after the break has taken the win. But then we had Sunday's stage where it was full gas from the very start as the GC men seemed to have their eyes on the finish and the break never had a chance. Which will it be tomorrow? Well, the GC men will want to take the Queen stage of the race, especially one that goes over such legendary climbs as the Stelvio and the Mortirolo... It's a long stage too, and with that much climbing breakers will be shattered once they hit the Umbrailpass and will be probably caught half way up it..

That then opens up the door for further attacks from the GC men towards the top of the pass. But with a 20km descent to the finish you'll need 30" or more over the chasers to have any hope of staying away to take victory. It's a tricky little finale too, so if there is a small group come to the last 2kms together, a smart attack could see someone get the jump on the others. 

The climb to Oropa was perfect for Tom Dumoulin in hind sight, a 20 min effort at 437 watts average or something like that, with not a whole lot of steep sections to upset his rhythm. This stage is a different matter entirely though and I expect Quintana to come out all guns blazing on these climbs. The Stelvio, at nearly 22kms and the Umbrailpass at 13kms will require a far longer and harder effort, and Movistar are sure to try to push him to his limits on the Stelvio to exhaust him ahead of the final charge up the Umbrail. 

We'll really find out what Dumoulin is made of tomorrow, and if there are any chinks in his armour, like in the Vuelta of 2015, he could be found wanting, it's a similar stage to that one to Cecedilla when he lost the race to Aru. I think Movistar will crush it with Anacona, Amador, Rojas, and the rest, and I think TomDum will be isolated a long way from the finish and will have to do all the chasing himself. Nairo could well go from 5 or 6 kilometres out if he's feeling good, he needs to gain lots of time and he won't do that attacking 1km from the top and hoping to hold off Dumoulin on the way down. 

But can Quintnata win the stage? At 13/8 he's pretty poor value, considering the fact the break might have chance of staying away, and if his lead is slim over the top of the Umbrailpass, then the chase by the likes of Nibali, Dumoulin and Mollema could be pretty fierce and he might be reeled in before the finish. 

Mikel Landa is second favourite, at just 7/2 with 365 and that also looks terrible value. Ok, he rode brilliantly on the road to Oropa, but he was seriously on the limit and couldn't muster an effort at the end to contest the stage win. And that was on the 'relatively' easy Oropa compared to these climbs. He did say after it that he still feels some pain following his crash, but that he was almost better and hoped to be 100% after the rest day, and that he hopes to do something in the final stages. Yes, he may go off on the attack early, or on the final ascent up the Umbrailpass, but I've just got a feeling that he might just ease himself in to it again tomorrow and try to stay with the GC men, and have a go on stage 18 and 19, which should suit him too. 

Vincenzo Nibali is an interesting one, he has said today that he plans to race without fear and with bravery in the coming days and he has not given up. He has been probing a few times in stages so far, but nothing really was right, but he looked lively and keen to take on the other guys in the downhill run to Bergamo on Sunday. If he has managed to stay with the likes of Quintana over the top of the final climb, he'd have a chance of getting away on the descent and soloing to victory. In fact I'd make him favourite of the GC men if they come over the top of the climb together, there's not many will be able to stay with him down that twisty and tricky descent to the finish.

Tom Dumoulin is 12/1 for it, and if he wins this stage I'll give up betting for the rest of the Giro.. I just can't see him pulling off a stage win on a day of savage climbing like this, but with the new, svelte, pencil-thin TomDum, who drops Quintana on the climb to Oropa, who knows!! I think he will struggle on his own, but not lose too much time, maybe 30-40". He's not the fastest descender in the world, and I can't see him getting over the top on his own that he can hold them off all the way to the finish.

Ilnur Zakarin seems to have bounced back from a poor showing on Blockhaus, with an excellent ride on Oropa, almost winning the stage. You'd have thought that after seeing off Quintana and getting 5m or so on Dumoulin that the stage was in the bag, but he faded badly on the cobbled last 50m and had to settle for 2nd place. He sits in 5th place in the GC now and with Pinot and Nibali above him, he might be starting to fancy his chances of making the podium, he's only a minute off of 3rd. He was hanging on a bit to Dumoulin on Oropa, but had the legs to try a late attack that almost paid off.

He had a number of good results in stages in the Giro last year, taking two 3rds and three 7ths on stages, but generally does better on stages that finish on a summit rather than a downhill. I think he could go well but fear for him losing some time on the descent as others like Nibali should be able to descend faster than him. But if he climbs like we know he can, there's a possibility that he could be one of a few guys who might stick close to Quintana and therefore could be in with a shot at a top 3 finish.

Thibaut Pinot could go well going up the climbs, but the downhills will his achilles heel again. He is stll a poor descender - and 21kms of a brtually fast descent with plenty of switchbacks, going hell for leather for the stage win could see Pinot come a cropper. But he looked one of the strongest on Blockhaus and the longer climb will suit him a lot better than the punchy, sharp climb of Oropa. 

Pierre Rolland and Omar Fraile are two more who are sure to have an interest in today's stage's KOM points, they both are showing a keen interest in the jersey, with Fraile minding the jersey for Dumoulin at the moment, He's just 2pts behind Dumoulin, but I doubt Tom will be going for points tomorrow, or even cares about the jersey from here on in, it's all about the GC win. Fraile was very impressive on stage 11, riding hard all day and taking a fantastic win, he could well try for the break again here I think, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Igor Anton or Van Rensburg or someone like that go with him to help. If he gets a big enough lead, he could well ride away from his companions on the Umbrailpass and solo all the way to the finish. And we saw on stage 11 just how good a kick he has in a small group at the finish.      

Pierre Rolland was impressive, for a while, too on the stage to Oropa, impressivley riding away off the front of a fast-moving peloton to bridge to the Deignan group in pretty quick fashion. He just ran out of gas towards the finish though when things kicked off behind, and was swallowed up with about 4kms to go. He is sure to go full gas for the first two climbs I think for the big KOM pts, and that might make him vulnerable to blowing up on the Umbrail. I'm going to pass on him, because even if he does manage to stay ahead with a small group, he'll not be able to stick with the faster descenders on the way down.

I don't think Steven Kruijswijk or Adam Yates are going to be winning tomorrow, I don't think it's a stage to suit either of them, and neither look super sharp at the moment, after all the effort by Orica on Sunday, Yates never got in a blow on the Alto di Bergamo. I thought Diego Rosa might try something on the Lombardia roads, but he was nowhere to be seen, I don't know if this stage suits him either, there might be other chances for him later on.. unless of course he tries to get away in the break with Landa or Deignan or Kiryienka..

Patrick Konrad is an interesting one though at 40/1. Sam Bennett said in his Independent column after Sunday's stage that Konrad was 'a sprinter trapped in a climber's body according to team tests', Bennett called him 'a beast'. He was in great form on Sunday, but like most of the peloton, he just missed out on the 9-man move that got away behind Jungels but he managed to bridge to the front group in the finishing straight and finished 6th on the stage, but he said that he reckons he'd have won if it was 100m further. He is now over 22 minutes down on GC so is not a threat if he gets in the break of the day, and he also possibly has a chance of staying with the GC men if the pace isn't furious, he might drop 30" or so on the climb, but could get it back on the descent.. 

Giovanni Visconti could be sent up the road to help Nibali later on if he needs him, if they happen to stay away he'd have a great chance on this finish. Can Cannondale get someone else up the road in the break? It could be one for the likes of Joe Dombrowski, who has been incredibly quite up until now, so much hype has been built up about him but he rarely delivers. His big problem is getting in to breaks, he's too much of a lightweight, but I think there could be a big group of 20 or so might get up the road tomorrow and he might make it. He's worth a tiny bet at 125/1.

Hubert Dupont might fancy the break, he's been riding well and sits in 22nd overall in the GC. He's 150/1 and worth a small bet too. And I'm going to give Felix Grosschartner another go too, as he's 400/1, the Austrian will like these long climbs. And finally, Sebastien Reichenbach might be worth a bet, he's been riding very well, he'll possibly be sent up in the break for Pinot later, or could stay with the GC men too, as he's in good form, and he's Swiss, heading in to Switzerland.. 

So crunch time for Quintana it seems - can he repeat his dominance on Blockhaus and solo away to victory? I think he will - this climb suits him far better than Oropa, Movistar will have beaten up the opposition the first time up the Stelvio and he could go long I think, with maybe 6kms to go when it hits the 9-10% gradients. I think there will be very few able to stay with him, but Thibaut Pinot and Zakarin look the most likely to. The question is though, will they have caught the break in time? It might be close, so I'm covering both angles. 

Recommendations:

3pts win on Nairo Quintana at 7/4 with WillHill

0.5pts each-way on Patrick Konrad at 40/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Hubert Dupont at 150/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Sebastien Reichenbach at 100/1 with 365

0.1pts each-way on Felix Grosschartner at 400/1 with 365 

0.1pts each-way on Joe Dombrowski at 125/1 with 365

Matchbets

Formolo to beat Jungels - 2pts at 17/10 with WillHill 

Konrad to beat Hirt - 2pts at 5/4 with 365

Pinot to beat Landa - 2pts at 13/8

Dupont to beat Monfort and Polanc to beat Cataldo - 2pts at 11/8