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Published on Wednesday, 17 May 2017 21:28

Giro d'Italia St 13

Reggio Emilia to Tortona

Friday 19th May, 162kms 

Another boring flat stage, but thankfully not as long as yesterday's, it's 70lkms shorter at 162kms. But it's the flattest stage of the race, there's barely a ripple on the profile all day. 

So a pretty boring stage today as expected, with just three riders going up in the break and never getting much rope from the peloton who were happy to just roll along all day. It all kicked in to life though in the last 10kms as the GC teams and the Sprint trains started doing battle. Bora took up most of the pulling, and looked superb in the last 5kms, totalling dominating the leadout, but I tweeted that I was worried that they were doing too much, too soon, and that was indeed the case as they ran out of men too early and Bennett was launched too late, with Gaviria powering up the left side of the road.

A very obvious indication as to who did the best final part of the leadout was the fact that Gaviria's leadout  man Richeze finished in 5th, he was super strong right at the point when he was needed most and when Bora faded away.  And what about Jakub Marezcko, he almost rewarded his six team-mates who helped him limp home yesterday, finishing an impressive 2nd place, annoyingly busting what would have been a clean-sweep of matchbets. Modolo wasn't far off, in 7th, I really didn't expect Marezcko to perform a lazarus-like recovery today.. Bauhaus was impressive in 4th, Gibbons with another superb 8th place and Greipel was disappointing in 8th, his shit leadout letting him down again. 

As for Sam Bennett, well, they did everything right, but just too soon. He was looking great, but they got swamped at just the wrong time and he had to settle for 3rd, but at least comfortably beat Ewan at a tasty 13/8 in our matchbet. There was no sign of Ewan in the sprint, in fact he finished in 82nd position, Yates finished in 17th on the right side of a split (along with Pozzovivo) and made up 6" on his rivals. So a 3.6pt profit today, annoyingly Marezcko reduced what would have been an alright day considering we didn't pick the winner. 

Well not a lot to say about this next stage though really, let's not waste each other's time!

The Route

The most boring stage of the race it looks like, a route that is completely flat, and passes through the entire Po Valley. The stage finale, past Casteggio, follows the traditional Milan-Sanremo route. After leaving Reggio Emilia, the route first heads for Cavriago, and then past Montecchio Emilia and goes back onto the ss. 9 “Via Emilia” leading to Piacenza following a very straight road.

After Piacenza, the route takes the former Statale Padana Inferiore all the way to the finish, passing through several cities that have been featured in many Giro stages, and in the Milan-Sanremo finale. The finish is in Tortona, awhich was also a finish town in the Giro in 1989. The only thing of note about this stage are the last few kilometres, where there are roundabouts with 2.5kms and 1.5kms to go and a wide left-hand bend with 450m to go. The home straight is 450 m long, on 7.5m wide road, so again there's plenty of space for a fast and safe sprint.

Contenders and Favourites

The usual suspects again? Probably.. but with Oropa the next day is there a chance a strong break could make it? It's possible, but I don't think so.. Sprint it is again, and to be honest, I'm losing interest in these sprints.. Gaviria is clearly now looking the strongest of them all, and has the smartest, best leadout. I say smartest, because it is obvious once again that smartest often beats strongest in a sprint finish. Bora led for nearly 10kms in an impressive show of strength, only to disappear with 300m to go. Instead, QuickStep rode a stealthy race and Richeze produced a master-class in leadout to deliver Gaviria to the last 200m and was so fast he took 5th himself. Ewan is a broken man and will probably go home after tomorrow's stage, same with Greipel. 

Bennett owes his team after today, but I don't think he's done yet, a smarter leadout, with two men at 500m to go instead of one could do it for him. But confidence in any of them is so low, it's hard to make a case for a bet. Gaviria's odds will probably be around evens, too short to take a gamble on, Bennett will be short but may have to settle for a place again, the only one that would interest me slightly would be Marezcko again as he is riding really well, but he'll probably be 8/1 or something like that. 

I'm saying it's a no-bet day I think, I'll have a look at some matchbets later on again though when they come out, I'll be possibly looking to take on Ewan in some again.  

Update - 23:20: As predicted, Gaviria is evens, and he probably will win, but I'm not interested in that, anything could happen again. Ewan at 4/1 I'm not interested in either, and Bennett at 4/1 probably just means you are getting your stake back at best, he just can't get his nose in front. As for the rest, Greipel is riding his last stage here, he could well lift himself to one last big effort, but he hasn't suggested he can win one of these sprints lately. At the prices, Jakub Marezcko is the only bet I'm interested in at 9/1 with 365, he's only 6/1 and 7/1 elsewhere. He has twice finished 2nd and is in good spirits, he could well podium again.

But.. what about this from leftfield.. what if Gaviria leads out Richeze to pay him back for all the hard work he's been doing?? Richeze was fast enough today to beat most of the other sprinters while easing down, with a good leadout himself he could well take a podium spot at worst.. He's 40/1 with WillHill, 28/1 with 365, I'm having a little on him too for an interest. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Jakub Marezcko at 9/1 with 365

0.25pts each-way on Max Richeze at 40/1 with WillHill

Matchbets:

Marezcko to beat Modolo - 3pts at 8/11

Gaviria to beat Ewan, Richeze to beat Selig, Yates to beat Albanese - 2pts at 2/1