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- Published on Monday, 15 May 2017 20:03
Giro d'Italia St 10
Foligno – Montefalco
Tuesday 16th May, 39.2km ITT
Rest day's over and it's time for the time triallists to have their fun, on a long and challenging route that runs through cereal fields and the vineyards of the Sagrantino di Montefalco wine estate.
Plenty of snigger opportunities for commentators and fans alike on this stage with the location of the second check-point located in the town of Bastardo.. And I'm sure that was a name that was flying around today in the team buses of Sky, Sunweb and Orica, as I'm sure that the motorbike policeman was the brunt of many a swear word after what happened today. It was shocking to see the hopes and dreams of Thomas, Landa, Yates and Kelderman shattered in a moment of madness. It overshadowed what was a superb stage of racing and the stage will be remembered for it rather than the battle between Quintana, Nibali, Dumoulin, Pinot and Mollema.
Now, of course the moto shouldn't have been there. Of course he shouldn't have stopped, and if he had to stop, should have stopped on the right, which is protocol I believe. BUT.. we don't know why he stopped.. maybe the engine died or something and he could do nothing about it.. and, the riders should have been alert to what was up the road ahead of them. Looks to me like Sunweb weren't paying attention, and no one gave a shout or a warning. Even my 13 year old shouts out every pothole and issue ahead of us when riding, it's a club-run basic.
The other contentious issue of course was whether Movistar should have eased up after the crash to allow the fallen to get back in.. On the balance of things, I think they should have eased, although the 'race was on' as they hit the bottom of Blockhaus, there were still 13kms to go and plenty of time to take it up again. But they'll argue the race was on, and they were on a mission.
The end result though is that Quintana is now leading by 28" from Pinot and 30" from Dumoulin, with Thomas and Yates 5'14" and 4'49" behind him respectively. Quintana has been slashed to 2/5 and you can see why, no one could match him today and he's only going to get better in the third week. But this race is far from over - Dumoulin climbed brilliantly today and will take 3 mins or more off of Quintana in the TTs, he could well be in pink on Tuesday afternoon.
And Pinot rode very well too, it looked for a while like he might be the only one to be able to stay with Quintana, and he easily won the sprint for second from Dumoulin to land the each-way money for us. The match-bet treble won and the Mollema matchbet won too to return 4.25pts profit, we'll take that and move on to week two where hopefully we'll have a bit more luck.
There were great rides too by Mollema in 4th, Nibali was very impressive in 5th, and he'll get better as the race goes on. Pozzovivo was very solid in 6th and is laying the foundations for a good top 6 placing potentially. Kangert was a surprise in 7th, he wasn't seen all day, then suddenly appeared in the last 200m. Zakarin was a disappointment, losing contact with the front guys quite early on in the climb, but ground it out and recovered to come home in 8th, but lost over 2 mins.
Kruijswijk was also a disappointment, losing 3'43". Reichenbach finished a superb 9th, given that he seemed to go backwards with about 7kms to go, and Formolo marked his intentions out with a fine 10th place, moving him up to 8th in the GC and in to the white leader's jersey with the demise of Yates, our 8/1 bet on him is looking nice this evening.
The Route
After the start in Foligno, which will host the Giro for the 7th time, the route leaves the old town centre and takes relatively wide and mainly straight roads for over 12 kilometres, until past Bevagna where the first time check is.
The route then starts to climb at an average 4-5% gradient, and reaches Madonna delle Grazie, where the road becomes a false flat. A fast-running and technical descent twists and turns all the way to San Marco, where the road flattens and straightens out a bit. The route takes a U-turn in Bastardo after they pass the second time check, then a false-flat uphill drag leads to Montefalco.
The slopes aren't very steep, yet the climb is unrelenting, dragging on at around 2-3% average. The road, narrowed at points, leads all the way to the walled city of Montefalco. The final kilometres are slightly uphill. In the last kilometre, the route descends and passes through a gateway, and then goes up again, on a short, steep ramp, leading into the 200-m long, uphill home straight.
Route Map
Profile
Last kms
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
Well this TT takes on a whole new slant now what with what happened on Blockhaus, Geraint Thomas will be the most disappointed considering he would probably have taken time off Quintana.. But how close would he have been? Where would he have finished if he hadn't come down? That is the question.. I reckon he'd have possibly have been close to Dumoulin and Pinot, not sure he'd have got any closer to Quintana, definitely no lower than Nibali I'd say.. but we don't know what sort of form he really has, but Sky were very close to the front and seemed ready for battle. In fact, it was being so close to the front that caused them the problems, riders further back were able to take evasive action and avoid it.
Rohan Dennis would probably have won this had he still been in the race, but as he's not, we're down to only a handful of riders I think who can win this stage. It's a hilly TT, but you don't have to be a climber to do well in this stage. The opening 12kms are slightly downhill, making for a very fast, powermans section, the real strong men can make up good time here. Then there's a little climb for 9kms, but it's very irregular with some steep and some easier parts, then it's undulating for the next 14kms or so before the final climb to the finish.
Tom Dumoulin looks the obvious pick. He has lost a lot of weight in the last year or so from the solid frame that he used to be, in an attempt to improve his climbing, and that part of it is clearly working, as he showed Sunday with his superb effort on Blockhaus. But has he lost a lot from his TT'ing power? Some it seems, as he hasn't been performing at his usual level recently, such as his 13th in the ITT in Tirreno when Thomas beat him by 7". His 11th in the World's TT last year was also a disappointing result for him, he was more than 2mins behind Tony Martin.
But he did finish 1st and 2nd in the TTs in the Tour last year, so he's still well able to pull it off when it clicks for him. And there is huge motivation for him here - he beats Nairo by 31", he goes in to Pink. And after yesterday's performance he must be a strong fancy for a podium spot now too, he has shown he's one of the best climbers and he also has the final TT too in his favour. He'll be starting 3rd last too so will have all the time checks and I expect him to post a seriously good time here.
Jos Van Emden on paper is possibly the second best TTer here, and this sort of rolling course will suit him. He has rolled around so far, coming home in the Grupetto Sunday and is over an hour back already. So it might all depend on what LottoNLJ want from him for the rest of this race as to how hard he goes for it tomorrow. Kruijswijk's chances of a podium could well be gone already, but they might not want to give up the fight yet and a top 10 place is probably something he needs to defend now, possibly a top 6 place could be in reach. But Van Emden isn't exactly a climber is he, it's not like he'll be needed to keep SK in position in the last 5kms of a climb..
So, I think he will be let off the leash to try to get a good result for the team here. As a pure TT'er and someone who will like this course I think, he could well be in with a shout here of a podium. His last two TTs, in Tirreno Adriatico earlier this year and the Eneco Tour last year, saw him finish a very close 2nd to Rohan Dennis, a pretty good benchmark. In the Eneco TT, although it was only over 10kms, he took 15" out of Dumoulin. In the hilly 40km TT in last year's Giro he finished 8th, 1'08" behind Roglic. He was 2nd in the Dutch Nationals to Dumoulin, finishing 34" behind him, but he has also won the Dutch TT championship in the past in 2010. I think this less hilly route will suit him a lot more than that one though, it just depends on whether he can keep the power going for 40kms, his best results seem to be on shorter TTs.
Bob Jungels finished 23" ahead of Van Emden in that TT in the Giro last year, finishing 6th, just 45" off Roglic's time. This guy is a superstar and just seems to get better and better - he has already been in pink for four days in the Giro again this year following his three days in Pink last year. I hoped he would be able to stay close enough to Quintana on Blockhaus to be able to take the jersey back tomorrow, but although he rode admirably to finish 15th on the stage, he's now 3'30" back on Nairo.
I think that performance, and his performance on Etna shows though that Quick-Step are molding him in to a bone-fide GC contender for the years to come, his climbing has improved, possibly to the detriment of his TTing ability, a bit like Dumoulin. His 13th in the TT in Romandie (19" behind Van Garderen) might have been a warning shot that maybe he's not the TT'ing machine he used to be.. But he is riding so well, so strong at the moment, he has to be top 6 I think.. whether he will podium or not? Possible - but 6/1 is very short I think.
Victor Campanaerts is one I like though, I've backed him before to succes and he continues to fly under the radar in big TTs like this. The other LottoNL man already has a hilly TT win to his name this season with his victory in the Ruta del Sol TT, finishing 1" ahead of Valverde. That was only over 12kms though, but he did win the Belgian TT championships last year on a course of 38kms, almost the same as this. He was also 2nd in the European Champs TT last year, on a course over 45kms, with an uphill last 3kms. I think he will be right up there and the 16/1 with Skybet was too big to leave, I think he might be 14/1 now, I'd back him e/w down to 12/1.
Thibaut Pinot could be anything here - he has improved his TT'ing, but maybe not enough to win a TT in the Giro.. But having said that though, he won three TTs last year, including the National champs (over 49kms), in the Criterium du Daphiné (over 7kms) and Romandie (over 15kms), so he has excelled across all distances. His two TTs this year haven't been great though, he was down in 17th in Tirreno (24" behind JVE) and was 9" behind Campanaerts in 4th in Ruta del Sol. He will have been massively boosted by his ride on Blockhaus, he looked very comfortable for most of the climb, just couldn't match Quintana's explosiveness.
Vasil Kiryienka - who knows what Vasil we'll get again here, could be the one who won a TT in the Giro for us a couple of years back, or it could be the Kiryienka that finished 22nd in Tirreno and 56th in Romandie... He won the Chrono Des Nations last year, against a pretty lightweight field, but that was his first TT win since also winning the same race in Oct. 2015. He would have been asked probably to save himself in this TT for mountains work in the days ahead for Thomas and Landa, but with Landa's race all but over and Thomas over 5 mins down, all bets are probably off on Sky's GC hopes. He might therefore be left go flat out tomorrow.. He may have come down in the crash Sunday, he was definitely there helping Thomas up, but he looks to be unhurt and looked fine on his bike today in the rest day recon ride. (below)
Geraint Thomas may well have been looking forward to this test as an opportunity to put time in to Quintana and maybe some of the others like Kruijswijk and Nibali. As it is now, he is needing a massive ride to even maybe pull him close to a top 10 sort of position. He is a good TTer, ex track racer of course, but you'd have to worry about him holding a position in the TT bars for nearly 40kms with a shoulder that had to be popped back in on the road.. Yes he rode well to the finish to limit his losses, but if he was hurt, the adrenaline and anger were great pain relievers while he was charging through the stragglers.. But after the adrenaline subsides and a night's sleep is had on those wounds, he might not feel great at all.. I can't have him for a top 3 here.
Tobias Ludvigsson is real hit and miss, he will like a long and lumpy TT course like this, but he's not won a TT like this since 2014. He did take 3rd place in the ITT in the Vuelta last year, on a TT over 37kms on a mostly flat course. He finished 23" ahead of Campanaerts that day, but 40" behind 2nd placed Castroviejo. The fact that he lost the Swedish ITT by 1'22" to a Conti Team rider says it all for me, you just can't rely on him.
Tejay Van Garderen - great in Romandie, disappointing again on Blockhaus. He led the 18km TT in Romandie for quite a while, but was eventually passed by the flying Roglic and Porte. That sort of performance will have him up in the top 10, but his morale took Sunday with him dropping off like that.. It certainly looks like the end of the talk of TVG ever being a Grand Tour contender. He did win a lumpy 21km TT in the Ruta Del Sol last year though, beating Kruijswijk by 35" and Mollema by 38" as a guide.. He can go ok here I think, and has pride and some places to try to make back up, but I don't think the top 3 is in reach.
Jan Barta, Ilnur Zakarin, Andrey Amador - three more that can go ok, but 5th to 10th at best I think. Michael Hepburn at 80/1 will probably set a decent time too, as could his team-mate Alexander Edmonson at a massive 250/1, but they are real longshots.
So Dumoulin is almost unbackable at 4/6, I say almost, but still looks like it's worth taking - he could win this TT by 30" and could beat Quintana easily by the time needed to take over the pink jersey, something I think he will be gunning for. He looked very strong on Sunday, bridging up to, and leaving Nibali behind, and staying with a charging Pinot all the way to the line. Kiryienka is being backed, he's in to 15/2 best price from 9/1 earlier, as short as 13/2, but that's too short for me, we could get anything from Kiry. Campanaerts at 16/1 with Skybet looks ok to me though, he could well be in the first three, and who knows, an off-day for Dumoulin could see him win it.
UPDATE - 11:48am - Incredibly it now seems that Campanaerts is not going to be going 'a bloc' as he put it in today's TT, but is saving himself for helping SK in the final week. That's very annoying, especially as 365 have pulled the matchbet with Ludvigsson and we can't even really trade out of it. I'm adding a small bet on Jungels at 8/1 e/w instead, if Campanaerts isn't going for it, I think Jungels will and could well podium instead. The 6/1 was short, 8/1 is acceptable.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Victor Campanaerts at 16/1 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on Bob Jungels at 8/1 with WillHill
Matchbets
Campanaerts to beat Ludvigsson - 2pts at 5/6
Mollema to beat Nibali, Dumoulin to beat Kiryienka and Jungels to beat Thomas - 2pts at 13/8
Van Emden to beat Barta - 4pts at 4/6