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Published on Tuesday, 02 May 2017 07:44

Giro d'Italia St 2

Olbia to Tortoli

Saturday 6th May, 221kms 

A second day in Sardinia, as they work their way from north to south of the island, on a lumpy route that may well see the KOM jersey pass to a second rider on just the second day as they pass over their first 1,000m climb of the race at Genna Silana.

There's barely a flat kilometre of road bar the last 10kms, but none of the climbs are overly steep and the main climb of the day, although it's 26.6kms long, it averages a rather sedate 3.3% average, so the sprinters should be safe enough.

So today's stage started as you'd expect with a break of six getting a quick 7 min lead on the peloton who were happy to roll along to start with, but pretty soon they upped the pace and with still 100kms to go the lead was back to only around 3 mins. They let them dangle in front until the catch with just 6kms to go.. 

But no one expected that finish though did they? Postlberger stunned the sprinters by taking advantage of the confusion and reluctance to take up the pulling in the last kilometre and soloed to victory. It was simply brilliant by the young Austrian -he was supposed to be leading out Bennett who was in a good position too, but he got a 10m gap and no one wanted to chase. Bennett saw the opportunity in the chaos around him and was screaming ‘GO GO GO’ down the radio to Postlberger. The crash with 3.2kms to go started the confusion and the twisty finale disrupted the sprinters trains even more, to the point that there wasn’t really any trains, it was every man for himself.

Talk about a bookies bonanza – Postlberger was probably 300/1, Gaviria was outside the top 10, Ewan was beaten, Griepel was beaten, and Nizzolo even got up to beat Modolo to confound those who thought he might need a few stages to get up to speed. The end result was a clean sweep for Bora, something they could not have seen coming in their wildest dreams. Not only did Posti win the stage with time to celebrate, but he took the Maglia Rosa, Maglia Azzura and Maglia Blanca for the points and young riders competition too. And on top of that Cesare Benadetti took the KOM jersey after being in the break all day. A full house for Bora. 

Not a great start then, but if it’s any consolation, no one saw that coming and no matter what sprinter you'd have backed today you'd have lost.. Ewan did beat Greipel, but Nizzolo pipped Modolo.. And Gaviria blowing up in the sprint with 50m to go saw him blow the double which is annoying, you’d have expected him to beat Bennett’s 9^th normally, Sbaragli did the business vs Bauhaus. The crash has seen Steven Kruijswijk lose 13" and Joe Dombrowski lost over a minute. 

The Route

The stage starts in Olbia where stage 1 finished and for the first 50kms they head south-west, climbing gently all the while until they reach Budduso. The road meanders south-east for the remainder of the route, over the Cat 3 Nuoro climb with 114kms gone and towards the coast to the town of Drogali for the second sprint of the day. From there they head inland again and up over the first 1,000m climb of the race, the Genna Silana, although it's a nice and gentle climb that just drags on at 3.3% for 26kms in total, if ridden hard enough will put some sprinters under pressure. 

From the top of the climb there is a wavy, but gentle descent for 37kms down to the coast before the flat last 10kms that takes them to the finish in Tortoli. There's a sharp right-hand turn with 2,500m to go and another 90 degree right turn with exactly 2kms to go where the road narrows and they cross the dreaded railway tracks, which could cause problems. But from there it is dead flat and dead straight for the last 1800m as is perfect for a big bunch gallop.

One thing to bear in mind though is that even though the weather is forecast to be beautiful and sunny, there is wind of around 13-14mph forecast for the afternoon, coming from the south-west, meaning that it will be a headwind for most of the day and especially in the last 10kms or so as they hit the coast. 

Contenders and Favourites

So a lumpy day in the saddle on rough, uneven roads, possibly being buffeted by south-westerly winds for most of the day. It's a relatively long stage too at 221kms, and with a Cat 2 climb coming 46kms from the finish we may see splits that are not closed back up as they put the hammer down in to the headwind on the descent. There's 36(!)kms of descending and then 10kms of flat along the coast, even if there is a 30" to 1 minute gap on the descent to some riders they may not get back on again.

Matty White of Orica said today that he didn't expect to see any sprinters involved in the finish tomorrow, that there was as much elevation gain as Liege-Bastogne-Liege. Sam Bennett and Trek also concurred that the climbs will cause problems, Nizzolo has in fact ruled himself out of tomorrow's stage, he thinks it will be too hard and he wants to ease himself back in so he can do more later in the race. He suggested Stuyven would be going for it, but even he would be on the limit. Knowing this, I think the stronger teams like Quickstep will probably push hard on the climb in an effort to blow the other sprinters out the back. 

You couldn't rule out a breakaway winning this stage either, there are lots of guys with lots of energy bursting to get up the road early and take the KOM points on Genna Silana as it would put them in the KOM jersey for stage 3 and they'll probably hold on to it until the rest day as there is only one Cat 4 climb the next day. 

So what do we make of today then? Well I think you can forgive Gaviria's failure today, he and most of his team got caught up in the delay, whatever it was, and it actually saw him lose Richeze, Keisse and Serry from his leadout and he was left to fend for himself and try to pull himself back to the front, so it was little wonder he was cooked in the last 200m. I think it will be a different matter altogether tomorrow, Quickstep will need to sort themselves out, they were a bit all over the place today, but Gaviria as we know is well capable of getting over a tough little climb like this, as we've seen in races like Milan Sanremo. The question is will Quickstep be able to get him in position or not like today?

Caleb looked really fast, he would have won were it not for Postlberger, but I don't think he will feature at the finish, he'll be dropped on the climb. Andre Greipel did more or less what I expected of him, he will get better in the next few stages, but I don't think he'll make it over the climb either.

Nizzolo impressed me a lot though - with about 60kms to go he was right at the back of the peloton and I was thinking that he was going to roll around today and break himself in gently. But he cut through the head of the group quite impressively in the finale to take 4th, he'd have podiumed without Postlberger. But he has ruled himself out! I think Nizzolo's performance bodes very well for the points competition and Bet365 agree, they have cut him to 2/1 favourite now.  

Modolo rode ok today but doesn't have the top speed to beat the guys in front of him, but if you take them out of the equation, Modolo has a good chance I think then and he looks a good price of 9/1 - this is the guy who was 10th in Gent Wevelgem and 6th in Flanders, he doesn't mind a tough day of climbing. 

I also think that Sam Bennett has a chance tomorrow, well he would have if they didn't have to defend the jersey.. In the interview after the stage today he sort of left it slip that they were going to go for it with him tomorrow, but cut his train of thought by realising that he might have to ride to protect the jersey.. But there is still a possibility that they can do both, they should get help from some of the teams like Quickstep and UAE to control the race and if they get to the finish with Postlberger in a good position they might let Bennett go for it, with the right combination of results, he could take the lead too. There's also an intermediate sprint half way up the climb, where some of the sprinters might go for it in an effort to take the Pink Jersey at the finish - there are quite a few of them 10" back. 

Bennett earlier in his career was a rider who could deal with lumpy races, winning a tough stage of the TOB after a lot of climbing a few years back. This year he has been working to regain some of that power for the climbs are losing some of it in recent years while training to improve his sprinting. He has spent a lot of time training at altitude and I think it could well pay on a stage like tomorrows. He was looking really good today in the last 3kms, moving up with ease outside other riders to slot in to 3rd wheel behind Postlberger, but when the gap came he screamed at Posti to keep going. He might get rewarded for his unselfishness tomorrow. 

Kristian Sbaragli was right up there today too and finished a fine 6th, with Ryan Gibbons just behind him in 8th. Dimension Data have a few options tomorrow too, Sbaragli could make it over the climbs, Nathan Haas will too, but I don't think Haas will be able to take the sprinters that do make it. Luis Leon Sanchez looked good today, he was near the front a lot and he might fancy giving it a go for the KOM points tomorrow if they've reeled in the break, and if so he might get away with a small group which could stay to the finish. 

Enrico Battaglin finished well for LottoNL today, taking 13th just behind Gaviria, he should like tomorrow's stage with the climbing and he could be a big danger if we get a reduced sprint at the finish - he's a decent price at 33/1. 

it could well be a chaotic finish again tomorrow, there are a number of twists and turns inside the last 5kms, but the roads are generally pretty wide and smooth, so they should be ok I think. We could see late attacks from the likes of Rui Costa, Bob Jungels or Alexander Edmonson (if he is free of Caleb duties), but I think it will come down to a reduced sprint and I'm plumping for Modolo, Bennet and Battaglin. I'm also going against the weaker sprinters in match bets as they will either be dropped or will have had a lot taken out of them. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sacha Modolo at 10/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 10/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Enrico Battaglin at 36/1 with WillHill 

Matchbets:

Modolo to beat Nizzolo - 3.5pts at 4/7 with WillHill

Modolo to beat Ewan - 2pts at 5/6 with WillHill

Modolo to beat Nizzolo and Gaviria to beat Greipel - 2pts at 6/4

Gaviria to beat Greipel, Sbaragli to beat Tsatsevich and Battaglin to beat Kuznestov - 2pts at 6/4 with 365