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Published on Wednesday, 29 June 2016 07:13

Tour de France Favourites 2016

The main contenders

The last of the prep races are done, the talking stops soon. 198 riders take to the start line again in Mont St Michel on Saturday morning, but realistically probably only about ten riders really have a chance of wearing the Maillot Jaune in Paris in three weeks time. 

I say ten, some would even argue there's only two that could win this race. It looks that way according to the betting anyway, with Froome at 5/4 generally and Quintana at 2/1, making it a 78% probability almost that one of the two of them will win it, and just a 22% chance that the rest of the field will. 

Add in Contador and we're already on 96% probability of it being one of those three, not counting in an over-round. With so many others in the race, and with the possibilities of anything like a crash, mechanical incident or illness happening during the three weeks of the race, surely there must be value elsewhere you'd think, right?

Well we saw in the Giro that anything can happen - 150/1 shot Steven Kruijswijk was a 2/5 shot to win the race with a few stages left to run, before he crashed in to a snow bank and crashed out of the lead. Esteban Chaves who assumed the lead was a 66/1 shot pre-race, he traded to something like 1/3, before ore-race favourite stole it from him on the final mountain stage. 

And in the Tour too, anything can happen - 2014 being the prime example when Froome and Contador both crashed out and JC Peraud and Thibaut Pinot finished on the podium. I think Peraud was around 100/1, and Pinot was 150/1, I know as I backed him each way in the first week!

So let's take a look at the contenders then, I'll cover the 'Outsiders' in another article. 

Chris Froome - Team Sky

7/4 Best Price (Boylesports the only one taking him on at that price)

Chris Froome is rightly the 11/8 favourite for the race, he is the reigning champion who bossed the race last year, winning by 1’12” from Nairo Quintana and 5’25” to third place Valverde. OK, he started to fade towards the end a little, but the race was in the bag..

This year has started well for him too, winning in the Herald Sun Tour in Australia, but Catalunya and Romandie didn't exactly go to plan. He looked like he was not quite yet on top form in the Dauphiné either, yet still won a stage, finished in the top ten in four other stage and took the overall by 12” from Romain Bardet, with Contador 35” back.

When he attacked on stage 5 and only Porte could stay with him, he looked his dominant, imperious self. He went hard - so hard that Dan Martin was expressing his shock at Froome’s explosiveness, something he prides himself on in those sorts of situations (and later showed himself).

After that it was a case of just managing the lead without putting himself too much in to the red just a few weeks before the TDF starts. He always seemed to have an answer for Contador’s and Bardet’s attacks, but had no answer to Dan Martin’s move on stage 7 that would have ordinarily won the stage, had Cummings not taken it from a breakaway.

As always, Sky will have a formidable lineup here, with a mixture of loyal domestiques and strong, punchy guys they can also maybe rely on for a stage victory or two. The problem Brailsford has is who to leave out of the squad, as guys like Roche, Kennaugh, Poels and Konig would easily make the lineup of most other teams. Their lineup though of Thomas, Nieve, Rowe, Stannard, Henao, Kiryienka, Landa and Poels will strike fear in to their rivals hearts, expect them to be crushing it on the mountain stages with Kiryienka, Stannard and Rowe doing the grunt work and Henao, Landa, Poels, Thomas and Nieve taking over at altitude.

They’ll need to stay on their toes in the first week, the 2nd stage could cause problems and the mountain stage to Le Lioran can also be tricky, the descent off the Puy Mary is dangerous (just ask Jurgen Van Den Broeck and Alexander Vinokourov who came to grief in 2011) and the run in over the Col de Perthus and the finish at the ski station at Le Lioran are all quite challenging, Froome has been known to hit the deck at times.

He should do best of the GC favourites in the TT in stage 13 and will also do well in the uphill TT on stage 18, as we saw in the Dauphiné. Although this is another uphill TT, this one is over four times as long at 17kms than the short and nasty 4km climb in the Dauphine, and will have to be ridden very differently, it’s not so much about explosive power, more sustained high watts for a lot longer period, which probably suits him better than a short, explosive one.

We already know that he is well capable of leaving the field behind on Mont Ventoux, he could put some serious time in to his rivals if he goes full gas like the last time up it in 2013. Then, he beat Quintana by 29”, with Nieve and Rodriguez 1’29” back and Contador 1’40” back. And when it comes to the high mountains, he’ll be licking his lips again – there’s a good chance that he’ll be in the yellow jersey after stage 17, maybe even as early as stage 9 and can defend it with his Skybots over the remaining days.

He says that becoming a father in the last 12 months has given him extra focus and motivation, not that he ever lacked motivation. It should inspire him to push himself even harder though, so his rivals better watch out.

Potential negatives against him? The first week will be tricky and full of potential dangers, mixing the usual nervousness, crashes, windy stages on the coast, and lumpy days in the Massif Central. It may be that Froome might lose some time in this first week somewhere, and may be a better price than 11/8 going in to the first rest day. The team looks strong, but there is also the danger that he will be isolated on the harder climbs, when the likes of Quintana and Contador start ganging up on him.

He’s a strong favourite for the race for sure, I am sure many will back him big, but at that sort of price it’s a bit short to be sweating over for three weeks, as he is prone to accidents and crashes and should face a real battle from Quintana this year. Overall though, to go against him is clasping at straws a bit, but there are a few holes in Froome’s armour I think - he didn't look so hot in some races this year and the short, explosive stages will be hard to control at times.

Nairo Quintana - Movistar

2/1 Best Price (Various)

We’ve not seen a lot of the little Colombian this year, his forays to European races have been few and far between, but when he has come here he has impressed, as you’d expect.

He didn’t do the Giro, and he didn’t test himself against his key rivals Froome, Contador and Porte in the Dauphiné, but instead his last big prep before the Tour was the unglamorous and low-key affair that was the Route du Sud.

He got in an early break-away at the start of the stage 1 that had the tough climb of the Therondels in the opening kilometres, building a lead of over a minute and a half at one point, but was eventually reeled in and just rode home in the bunch. I think he came there for a few key tests – one, to attack early in the race to see how the legs were feeling, two, to give the TT a real go on stage 3 – which he won, and then to test himself again in the later mountain stage, where he ‘helped’ Soler take the stage win.

The 35km flat-ish TT is going to be very interesting though – ordinarily I’d have said it will be his big problem, I was thinking he could lose 30” to a minute to Froome over that distance, and Contador, Porte, Van Garderen, Pinot should all do far better than him. But when interviewed at the RDS he said that he has been working really hard on his TT and he is pleased with his progress.

That certainly looked the case in the TT in the RDS, even though the opposition weren’t any great shakes he beat former French TT champ Sylvain Chavanel by 6” to win the stage, he’s not won many TTs in his life. In fact, the only other pro ITT he has won in his career was in the Giro in 2014, on the 27km uphill TT to Cima Grappa, with Aru 17" back and Uran 3rd, 1'26" back. Maybe he'll repeat that sort of feat this year and possibly go in to yellow that day.   

What he might lose in the first, longer TT though he could well get back in the uphill TT on stage 18. He finished 2nd in the hilly TT in the Pais Vasco this year over 16.5kms, and in 2015 he finished 6th in the hillier one to Aia, but 30” ahead of the likes of Van Garderen and Pinot.

The mountain stages are where he’ll come in to his own though and the stages in Andorra and Spain and the stage up to Ventoux will be ones he’s looking forward to, he’ll be hoping to go better than in 2013 when he couldn’t stay with a rampant Chris Froome in the last 1.5kms, the famous stage where Froome’s power numbers have been analysed and scrutinised as to their genuineness.. The stages in the Alps will be where he may have to go on the attack to pull back time, it could make for a very exciting end to the race.

Even though he has a Giro d’Italia on his palmares, he is a nearly-man when it comes to the Tour, with two 2nd places behind Froome, separated by his win in the Giro. He’s a year older, a year stronger and a year more experienced, but will he be able to turn the tables on Froome on a course that may suit him less than it would say Froome or Contador? I think he has a big chance. 

Alberto Contador - Tinkoff-Saxo

13/2 Best Price (Boylesports)   

Two Tour de France, two Giros, three Vueltas, four Pais Vasco and two Paris Nice - and those are just the races he was allowed keep after his ban. He is bidding to go out on a high, as he may, or may not, be retiring this year.. 

He has skipped the Giro this year after being forced to try to do the Giro-Tour double last year by Oleg Tinkoff. He pulled off the first part, but was so exhausted by it he never really came close to Froome, eventually finishing nearly 10 mins behind him and promptly called it quits for the season.

The year before of course he crashed and broke his leg, but was already quite a bit behind Nibali, but less than six weeks later he not only started the Vuelta, but won it comfortably from Froome, Valverde, Rodriguez and Aru.

So what to make of his chances? He's had a great season by anyones standards - he has started five stage races this year and finished 1st (Pais Vasco), 2nd, 2nd, 3rd and 5th - not outside the top 5 in any of them and on the podium of 80%. He is 13/2 standout price with Boylesports for this, they are biggest price on him like they are with Froome, he is just 9/2 with most of the rest of the bookies. He is evens to finish in the top 3 with most, so 50/50 that he does or doesn't finish on the podium.

He has said himself that he feels far better for not having done the Giro or the Route du Sud - "One thing is clear. I’m fresher than I was in the build-up to the last Tour, and I hope my body will react accordingly as we get into the Tour, and I recover better than I did from my efforts. I think I was more on the limit last year." He also says that he is going there to win - "If I wasn’t, then I wouldn’t be motivated to train so hard for the Tour. The only thing I have in my mind right now is to fight for the win". 

He also thinks that Ventoux won't be that important, that the time lost there can be got back in the Alps, it's the Alps where the race will be won he says. He has Kiserlovski, Majka and Kreuziger to help him in the mountains, and, as he put it, Peter Sagan to 'shake things up' for him. 

I hope he gives it a right good go - I hope he does indeed shake it up and that he is in the hunt still coming in to the Alps to see what he can do. He will probably attack early some stage when he has Sagan and someone else up in the break and look to cause panic in behind. I think he is borderline for the top 3, he should get there based on his incredible record, as well as the fact that the uphill TT late in the race will suit him really well also. I might hold off on backing it though until maybe the day before stage 5 after seeing how he got on in the opening stages, I don't think his price will drop much.

It may be that when he gets to the last few days and sits in 3rd or 4th behind the favourites though, he might just settle for what he has and fight to defend a podium spot.  

Fabio Aru - Astana

20/1 Best Price (Paddy Power)

I really don't like Aru. If you're a regular reader you've probably picked that up by now! I just can't warm to him and can't admire his wins. Maybe it's his personality, maybe it's the team he rides for and the boss he works with, I don't know, I just don't like him. 

Good rider though, but is he good enough to take a podium spot above three of the best climbers in the peloton? I am not so sure at all.. To me he has had a really poor season so far, he has been soundly beaten by the likes of Contador, Quintana, Porte, Bardet and Van Gaderen in various stage races and was way down the field in 45th in the Dauphiné. He managed to save face somewhat with his victory on stage 3, but I still maintain the opinion that he was fortuitous and not I'm not taking a lot of value from it. 

Ok, he could be doing a Froome and only caring about the Tour, but at least Froome pulls off decent rides along the way, Aru hasn't. He has a strong team with him here though, starting with Giro winner Vincenzo Nibali and it will be intersting to see how those two get on, there is supposed to be no love lost between them. I wouldn't even be surprised to see Nibali the stronger of the two later in the race after Aru's challenge has faded away. He doesn't interest me right now at just 20/1. 

Thibaut Pinot - FDJ

22/1 Best Price (Bet365)

Thibaut Pinot is a funny one, it's hard to get a handle on what he is going to do from race to race and from day to day. All the talk for the last year has been about how great he was becoming at time trials.. And he has certainly proved that with 2nd in the Etoile de Besseges TT, 1st in the Criterium International, 6th in Pais Vasco, 1st in Romandie but then he disappointed in the uphill TT in the Dauphiné to lose 52" to Contador and his race was done in the first stage.

He did save his race too (like Van Garderen, and like Aru.. there's a pattern here...) with a good stage win to Meribel, when he and Bardet went off on the attack. Despite looking like he was struggling at times to stay with Bardet, he wrestled his way back to him each time and outsprinted him at the finish. I think though that his weak team will let him down, he will lose lots of time in the uphill TT of stage 18 and he will crack on some mountain stages that will cost him time. We might see him stage hunting instead, a little like when he took a famous win on Alpe d'Huez last year. 

Richie Porte - BMC

18/1 Best Price (Ladbrokes)

Little Richie, and he really is little, he looks like a kid off the bike, is after moving his way up in to 4th favourite with a solid ride in the Dauphiné. He really should have done better than 4th there, but was very unlucky on the final stage when he got bumped by Froome at just the wrong moment, lost momentum, lost 2" and lost 3rd place. Before that he had ridden a brilliant uphill TT, to finish 2nd behind Contador, but 7" ahead of Froome. 

It's been a different kind of prep this year for Porte, with no Giro and all the emphasis on the Tour, and he showed in the Dauphiné that his prep is going well with that TT performance, but also how he was the only rider capable of going with Froome when he made his explosive attack on stage 3. He needs to find consistency though, as he has struggled with longer Tours in the past, he has not finished higher than 19th in any Grand Tour, since the TDF of 2013, but before that he did manage to take a 7th place in the Giro in 2007 when he also won the best young rider classification.. 

It's a strange situation with BMC, as they are going with joint leaders apparently, but the betting shows who probably actually is team leader, with Porte at 18/1 and Tejay at 40/1. If Porte can ride two good TTs though, which he is very capable of, and can stay with Froome longer than most others on the decisive climbs, then he has a chance for sure of making a podium. In fact, in their current form I'm very tempted to pick Porte to beat Contador in a GC matchbet at 3/1 with PP. 

Porte himself is full of confidence - he said in an interview with ESPN this week: "I have controlled everything I can to be ready. I'm as in good condition as I've ever been. I've done the training and reconnaissance; I've checked out nine of the 21 stages." And those nine stages are undoubtedly the key mountain ones, so he is prepared. If things all fall in to place for Richie, with a strong team of experienced riders with him (Bookwalter, Moinard, Schar and Burghardt all rode on the BMC team that helped Evans win in 2011) I think he could go very close to pulling off a podium spot.

Tejay Van Garderen - BMC

40/1 Best Price (various)

This time last year I was picking Van Garderen as a dark horse for the 2015 TDF, after a decent showing in the Dauphiné, where he lost the race in the last 2kms of the final stage. Up until then he had ridden really well and went in to the Tour with a relaxed attitude. 

He started really well in the Tour, moving in to 3rd place in just the 3rd stage and even went second for a while after the TTT in stage 9. Then he suddenly got sick and was devastated to have to abandon the race. Almost as devastated as I was!

This season has been a bit hit and miss for him, taking 2nd in Andalucia, just 25" behind Valverde in his first race of the season, but in Tirreno, Catalunya and Romandie he disappointed to be honest. His Tour de Suisse summed up his season I think, with one great day and a stage win on one of the hardest stages of the race, let down by poor performances in the other key stages. He finished 6th overall but he really should be beating guys like Talansky and Pantano. I think he might do ok, but too many doubts about him, too many stages where he could run in to problems. 5th to 10th for me. 

Vincenzo Nibali - Astana Pro Team

33/1 Best Price (various)

Nibali is supposedly on domestique duties for Aru here, having had his chance to lead in the Giro, a chance he grabbed with both hands at the death, after it looked very unlikely with just three stages to go. He looked in real trouble at times and was languishing in 4th place, nearly five minutes behind Kruijswijk before SK slammed in to the snow wall and his race started to fall apart. Nibali was suddenly energised and the shark smelt blood in the water. 

So what do we expect of him here? He hasn't raced since, a break of five weeks, part of which was no doubt filled with Giro winner duties, but the rest training hard at altitude with Jacob Fuglsang in San Pellegrino in the Dolomites (right).  

The 'Shark of Messina' attempted to be the first rider to land back-to-back Tour de Frances last year since Lance Armstrong, or if you ignore him, like you should, since Miguel Indurain in 1995 (and some say we should ignore him as well), but he ended up 4th, 8'36" behind Froome, but ahead of Contador. 

There is the strange dynamic in the team in that Nibali is leaving Astana and the two of them don't get on apparently, so it'll be interesting to see just how much effort Nibali puts in for Aru.. I can see him doing some work, losing time and then going stage hunting over the last four days, especially if, as I expect, Aru will be out of the GC race. 

Conclusion

This is a Tour that has the makings of being a wide open race, if Chris Froome and Nairo are not at 100% for some reason. I think it's going to be between the two of them mainly, but there will be savage battles all over the road for the minor placings, and I think some of the top 10 placings will be still up for grabs right up to the last descent off the last climb on the penultimate day. 

And of course, it's not just the six guys above - there are a number of possible outsiders that could do a Peraud or a Pinot like in 2014, or a Valverde in 2015, I've covered them in my Outsiders analysis and preview.

My final Recommendations are on the foot of my 'Outsiders' analysis. Click here to read that now.