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- Published on Wednesday, 13 July 2016 22:30
TDF Stage 12
Montpellier to Mont Ventoux
Thurs 14th July, 184kms
The first 'real test' for the GC contenders. The mythical, magical, monstrous Mont Ventoux. A legendary climb in cycling folklore, the 'Giant of Provence' rises up out of the flatlands that surrounds it and in to the clouds. As is often the case with stages that climb Ventoux, most of the stage is flat, then it goes vertical.
Another day, another dramatic stage today. Chris Froome is completely rewriting the opinion that he and Sky are boring and predictable, his attack with Sagan today was simply sensational. 12.2kms to go, the race in tatters and stretched out all over the road, Sagan attacked with Bodnar, Froome followed and Geraint Thomas latched on too. And they held it. Incredibly they held it, all the way to the line, with Froome gaining another 6" on the line and 6" bonus. Sagan of course won the stage, the man is incredible. Truly, one of the most complete, all round cycling superstars you will see in a long time. Appreciate him, admire him, fear him. He is brilliant.
Quintana was once again caught napping, as were Etixx, I really can't understand what was going on with Eitxx, they had 5 or more riders up front, they had the stage favourite, they had the 3rd man in the GC, yet they didn't do enough, early enough. The gap was up at over 25" before they came to the front and Tony Martin pushed for a while, but not for long enough. Katusha were limp and ineffective once again as were Direct Energie, none of those behind were committed enough, or strong enough to pull them back. That left Alexander Kristoff pissed off as he missed out on a stage win, as he 'won' the bunch sprint ahead of an impressive Christophe Laporte.
BMC were at the head of the peloton with 12kms to go, with a few riders, and Sean Kelly was sure that they would pull back the break on the run in. But they didn't. Behind, most of the favourites were in the front group though, except for Joaquim Rodriguez and Louis Meintjes, who both lost 1'03 to their GC rivals and slipped out of the top 10. Bauke Mollema moved up in to 5th on the GC.
On to Stage 12 then and the trip to Ventoux... It doesn't just go straight up the Ventoux this year though like some sort of prolongued warm-up to a hill-climb, they do tackle a Cat 4 and a Cat 3 climb in quick succession with 50kms to go. But they are mere appetisers for what's to come, the main course of the Ventoux. But all of a sudden today there has been a dramatic, but unavoidable change to the route, with the top 6kms of the climb being cut off due to 100kmph winds at the top of Mont Ventoux.
The stage is now set to finish at Chalet Reynard, which is 6kms from the top. Who does that benefit more? Well we'll never know for sure whether going all the way to the top would have helped or hindered any of the GC candidates, but it's still a very tough finish to the stage. It's still 10kms at nearly 10%, a nasty, horrible climb in anyone's book.
The Tour last went up the Ventoux in 2013, when Chris Froome rode away from everyone else, including putting 29" in to Quintana and 1'40" in to Contador. Quintana said he made mistakes last time around that cost him, and the primary mistake was probably attacking as early as he did. He attacked with 12.8kms to go out of the Froome group and at one point with about 9kms to go he had around 45" on Froome.
But Porte and Kennaugh blew the race apart for Froome and with 7.1kms to go Froome went to the front, shook off all bar Contador. But he didn't last long either, as Froome went in to full overdrive in one of the most explosive attacks you are likely to ever see on a mountain like Ventoux. He bridged to Quintana and then went straight past him with another explosive acceleration, but Quintana came back to him and stayed with him until 1.4kms to go when Froome accelerated again and finally Quintana cracked. (see the video below)
Quintana has improved massively as a rider since then and will have learned a lot since then too, and maybe Froome won't have the motor in this time.. :-)
I think this time Quintana needs to sit in and save energy and maybe then try something in the last 3 or 4kms, if Froome has not put the race to bed already. Quintana didn't try anything on the climb to Andorre Arcalis, nothing.. didn't attack once, showing either a scary lack of ambition or a seriously cool and calculated game plan.
One important thing to remember for this stage though is that it is Bastille day in France, and that's always an invitation for the French riders to try something special. Last time around Christophe Riblon and Sylvain Chavanel were on the attack but were reeled in on the lower slopes of Ventoux. Expect to see the French on the attack again this time around.
Ventoux first appeared on the Tour in 1951, the Giant of Provence welcomed a first stage finish in 1958 after a time-trial that allowed Charly Gaul to build on his future Tour success. For the first finish of a normal stage, Raymond Poulidor triumphed in 1965 without however managing to take the Yellow Jersey from Felice Gimondi's shoulders.
The Route
This stage is one of those cliches - you may not win it today, but you certainly can lose it. The main GC contenders will have to stay as close to Froome as they can if he puts the hammer down again, the last thing you want to do is to have to try to play catch up of a minute, two minutes or more on Froome with only half the race left.
They start out in Montpellier on the coast and the first 128kms are more or less pan-flat,and soon after Cavaillon they start on the Cat 4 Cote de Gordes, a 3.3km climb at 4.8%, which basically takes them to the base of the second climb of the day, the Col des Trois Termes, a Cat 3 climb of 2.5kms at a much steeper 7.5% average. A quick descent takes them to Mazan and they are suddenly faced with the Giant of Provnce in front of them.
Ventoux is now 10kms long at an average of 8.83%, a really hard climb in anyone's book, but the first 6% are closer to 9.2% and there's a section at 9% with 3kms to go.
I had written this paragraph prior to the race, it was almost like I cursed it..."There are lots of long exposed stretches in the last few kilometres, with one final bend to the right up to the finish line with 50m to go. The winds can really whip up the mountain, last year they had a tail/crosswind from their left as they were climbing the last kilometres, it's likely to be the same this year, although it could equally be a block headwind to make life even more difficult."
Map
Profile
Mont Ventoux
Contenders and Favourites
You have to start with Chris Froome of course when it comes to Mont Ventoux - winner last time up, and in some style. The way he spun away from Contador and the rest of the remains of the front of the race, and then away from Quintana again was just incredible. Contador had no answer, but Quintana was able to stay with him at first. But then the pressure eventually cracked Quintana too with 1400m left and Froome just rode away.
It was a dominating performance that was to seal the race, he went from leading Mollema by 2'28" to 4'14" and his lead to Quintana became nearly 6 mins. Fast forward to this year and of course we had the mixed performances by Froome in the build up to the Tour, but he has done pretty good on the mountain stages so far in this race. He was comfortable on the top of the Peyresourde, although the attacks on him were not full efforts, more probes and prods, he was distanced a little bit but quickly got back with the help of Henao and Nieve. His attack down the hill was sensational too, it certainly got people talking.
It got some people talking too after the next day when he fought off all comers in the rain up to Arcalis, he might have been on the limit, but he coped and actually gained time on the likes of Rodriguez, Bardet and Mollema. I say he got some people talking, the Gazetta were discussing the fact that his cadence seemed to be a lot lower than in past years, like he has lost some of the 'washing machine' like furious spinning that was on show last time up the Ventoux. If that's the case, then it might be that we see others like Porte, Quintana and Martin sticking closer to him this time. And if that's the case we could see multiple and co-ordinated attacks like we saw on the way to Arcalis.
He could defy those beliefs though of course and turn on the style. Thomas, Kiryienka, Landa and Rowe will do the softening up earlier on the climb, Henao and Nieve will take over later in the hill. Remember Nieve was the 3rd rider home on Ventoux last time around, while still with Euskatel Euskadi. Henao seems to be going particularly well too, he might be sent up the road to attack the others like they did on Arcalis, and Froome counter-punches when he is reeled in. If he gets a gap and they let him go then he may well keep going while the others watch and wait for the Froome attack, or just end up attacking each other. That could give Nieve a chance to take the stage victory. Even if Froome rides up to him and rides to the finish with him, he might give him the stage, but Froome seems to be so selfish and desperate for every second he probably won't give it to him!
I have a small inkling though that Froome is a little worried about his form. He and Sky are saying that the attack on the downhill from the Peyresourde was spontaneous and just him 'trying something new, to catch them off guard', But I'm not sure I agree - he had a 54-tooth chainring fitted and the way that he was brought up on the left-hand side of the road right at the top of the climb and went straight through without hesitation? That looked planned to me. It looked like he gambled to take every second he could, and it worked well for him. If his cadence is lower and he is worried to the point he attacks on the downhill, or even attacks on the flat in the wind today, maybe we should be worried he will be put under pressure here. But Froome is Froome, we won't have a clue how he really is going until we see him accelerating away from them all, or is being left behind. 2/1 though? It's a bit short...
Nairo Quintana has looked very, very comfortable so far in this race, but hasn't pushed himself outside his comfort zone by attacking a whole lot yet. A few probes here and there, but nothing like full-gas yet. He didn't attack once in the rain to Arcalis, when maybe an attack or two might have seen Froome struggle. So he is either not entirely happy with his form and didn't want to put himself too much in to the red to the point that he could've lost a bit of time like Bardet or even Dan Martin, or he is playing a very cool waiting game. But is he waiting for Ventoux, or is he waiting for the last mountain stages at the end of next week? He lost more time sloppily today again to Froome, so the gap is going up, and the miles are coming down.
He now knows Ventoux after the last time, he has done fresh recon rides there too and he says he has learnt his mistakes from last time around. He could well go on the attack here - he needs to probe Froome for weaknesses ahead of the TT where he is likely to lose time to Froome. What he doesn't want though is to lose another 30" to Froome here and another 30" to him in the TT, his race could be over before we get to the Alps. I think he has a good chance if he sits in and waits this time, letting Bardet, Martin and Porte attack away at Froome, and then pouncing with 2kms or so to go. If he attacks hard, as hard as he can do, there mightn't be anyone can go with him.
Richie Porte has been looking really good to me too and he and the team reckon he is in the shape of his life. He was looking good on the Arcalis and looked comfortable with the attacks on the Arcalis, even attacking himself, an attack that put Martin in a bit of trouble after his initial attacks. It was Porte who blew the race apart for Froome last year earlier in the climb, whittling the pack right down, pulling over to the side, giving a nod to Froome and Froome took off. He doesn't need to do that this time, or at least he shouldn't!
With the two TTs coming up Porte has a chance still I think of sneaking on to the podium, despite his time loss earlier in the race. He could well stay with Froome to the finish here and could possibly even drop him on the run in and gain back some time. The 10" bonus at the finish could be crucial to him. His confidence is very high right now, he just needs to keep calm and time it right. At the same time, he can't go too far in to the red as he has the crucial TT the next day and I think that's an opportunity for him to move up the GC too, he'd be one of the best TT'ers in the list of GC men.
Dan Martin has been riding very well in the mountains all year and really stepped it up in the Dauphiné, to a point where he could have won two stages had the breaks not taken the wins ahad of him. He even managed to drop Froome and Porte on the way to 2nd place on Superdevoluy. He was equally impressive riding on his home roads to Andorre Arcalis when he attacked repeatedly. The Dan Martin of old wouldn't have had a chance of staying with Froome if he accelerates like he did in 2013, but Dan has changed his training this year to include a lot more longer climbs and looks to be benefitting from that.
His move to Andorra seems to be helping too, not just to his tax liability. Even though his head continues to bob and weave like one of those dashboard wobbly-head Jesus, which on most riders means they are in big trouble, Dan is always well positioned and always looks like he is ready to attack. He needs to be really patient here though and just sit on Sky and BMC and let them carry him to the last 2kms. He might be distanced by some of Froome's accelerations, but when Froome eases off, like in Andorra, he might be able to get back on.
I think it will take either an extraordinary day from Dan though, or a slight off-day from Froome in order for him to win, he will need to be able to stay with the accelerations, or pull himself back on, but if Quintana or Porte counters just as he is about to get back on, then he could be left behind. Ventoux is a good gradient for him though, and the 6km shorter route will suit him too, so it's possible he'll be able to land a top 6 on the stage, possibly even a podium spot.
Bauke Mollema was very impressive on the climb to Andorre Arcalis, he didn't seem to have much trouble staying with the leaders for almost all the climb and his attack was impressive too, putting Martin in to the red and stretching Froome. He did pay for his attack at the finish though, he couldn't stay with Porte's acceleration and came home 21" down on Froome. He looks incredibly lean and says he is in the best shape of his career, and I would agree given how he raced in Andorra.
He's got a chance I think of finishing on the podium in the Tour given how well he's riding, but he needs to just wheel-suck tomorrow and come home in the first four or five and he has a chance I think. On Tuesday I thought the 20/1 with Skybet in the 'Without Froome and Porte' market looked interesting as an each-way bet, it would mean he has to finish in the first five for you to collect. He was 2nd place in the Tour coming in to the Ventoux stage in 2013 remember, and although he lost time to Froome, it still let him in 2nd place. He did fade badly in the third week though to fall out of contention again. Today though he moved up a place to 5th, so just as I was about to recommend the bet to you Skybet cut him to 14/1. I still think there's a bit of value there, he could still finish in the top 5, but actually you are better off backing him at 3/1 on Betfair to finish in the first 6.
Joaquim Rodriguez announced in an emotional press conference on Monday's rest day that he is retiring at the end of this season, the end of a long and distinguished career for Purito. He has been riding very well in this Tour, a lot better than I expected, and what better way to go out than to win a stage in his last TDF? I don't think this will be the stage though, he won't be able to match Froome and Quintana's surges when they come I think, but you'd never know. He lost more time today though and dropped out of the top 10, he'll be keen to rectify that error.
Romain Bardet - will we see him in the 'Bastille Break'? It's possible, but I'm not sure he'll be let go as he still lies within a minute of Froome. I think he will be looking to attack later on the climb though so watch out for his bursts, but I don't think he's good enough to pull away from a field of guys like this. He should be good enough for a top ten I think though.
Tejay Van Garderen has been struggling a little compared to Froome and I can't see that changing here, it might be that he has to work for Froome even though he is higher than him in the GC, I think he could still take more than a minute back on Tejay by the end of the TTs. He might be sent up the road on a feeler attack, he is only 17" away from a top 5 placing after all.. If they don't chase him then he could move right up the GC. If they do, then it's an opportunity for Porte to counter.
Louis Meintjes suffered in the wind today and trailed in a minute behind Froome, that might have taken a lot out of him and I think he'll be doing well to just hang in there tomorrow. Adam Yates has been riding incredibly well, can he keep it up? We might see a late attack from him again, he does like a late attack when the likes of Froome and Porte are looking at each other a little. It will be up to the likes of Meintjes to chase after him to keep the White Jersey within reach.
Rafal Majka and Thibaut Pinot will be probabaly on the attack looking for the KOM points earlier in the stage and may hope to stay out front all the way to take the points on Ventoux. It's going to be very hard for the break though with the strong winds that are expected tomorrow though, we may even see splits and echelons again on the way to Bedoin, we may not even get the full peloton starting the climb. That could spoil Pinot's chances of trying to win on Bastille day I think, he's not going to attack away from the group of favourites on the final climb.
Alejandro Valverde and the rest of the Movistar team will have to up their game from the shambles that they were today, they were all over the place and offered Quintana no protection at all, the was all on his own at the crucial moments of the race. Something of course Sky noticed and it was probabaly why Froome was so keen to try to split the peloton. Valverde will have to work hard for Quintana and try to stretch things to make Froome react and chase and then let Quintana counter.
Fabio Aru, Rui Costa, Vincenzo Nibali, Domenico Pozzovivo.. all guys who could still be involved hitting the last 5kms or so, but can they win it? I don't think so. It looks to me like it's probably between Froome, Quintana, Porte, Martin and Bardet, with a big battle on behind for the rest of the top 10 places.
Froome should be the strongest, but I've a feeling we may not see him ride away from everyone tomorrow. He had a really hard last 12kms today, he was on the limit to hold the gap with Sagan. Having said that though, he must be either feeling very, very strong, or he's worried about his climbing. I think he might be covered tomorrow by quite a few guys and we may actually see a bit of a stalemate develop between Froome and a Quintana still biding his time for the Pyrenees. Porte could attack though, and if it comes to a sprint finish in a select group, which is possible due to the headwinds, then Dan Martin can pop up with his powerful sprint and win the stage. Of course Froome and Quintana are the favourites and probably will win, but at the prices, Porte and Martin appeal to me a lot more.
Recommendations:
Dan Martin - 0.5pts each-way at 20/1 with Boylesports paying four places
Richie Porte - 0.5pts each-way at 14/1 with Ladbrokes
Matchbets
Dan Martin to beat Richie Porte - 2pts at 6/5 with PP
Zakarin to beat T Dumoulin - 1pt at evens with PP
Majka to beat Pinot - 1.2pts at 5/4 with Bet365
Henao to beat Valverde - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365
Martin to beat Yates - 2pts at 4/5 with Bet365