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Published on Wednesday, 06 July 2016 22:00

TDF Stage 7

L'Isle-J'dain - Lac de Payolle

Friday 8th July, 162.5kms 

For the first 100kms, this stage is nice and easy as they head south towards the fringes of the Alps. But that all changes with 60kms to go as the riders get their first taste of the Pyrenéen air, rising up and over the Col d'Aspin and on to the finish in Lac de Payolle. 

So a better day today, with the saver on Cav definitely worth having as he once again overpowered Kittel to take an
incredible third stage win out of 6. Kittel was a bit all over the place in the leadout, his team came very late to
the party, inside 2kms to go, which looked like the right strategy, but it looked like he was even having trouble
following his own leadout as he constantly lost contact with them. When he finally went, he never really exploded away
and Cav easily matched him, and beat him. But what about Dan McLay - a stunning sprint finish from him saw him come
from about 12th wheel with 200m to go to take 3rd place on the line, finishing the fastest.. He easily took the
matchbet with Groenewegen though at a nice 5/4.

Greipel disappointed again so lost his matchbet to Cav, Coquard got a little lost in the sprint and ended up in 9th,
with Shane Archbold making hay while the sun shone for Bora to take 9th. Matthews was outside the top 10 but Kristoff
almost justified my belief that he was value at 20/1 by taking 4th place. He will be winning soon.
Rather incredibly we head in to the Pyrenées with all 198 riders still in the race and most of the top GC candidates
on the same time. Only Porte, Contador and Nibali have lost time so far.

While a finish line was never set on its shores, the riders of the Tour were often able to see and admire the Lac de
Payolle. When the pack takes on the climb to the Col d'Aspin from the village of Sainte-Marie-de-Campan, the passage
through the nordic skiing resort announces far steeper climbing gradients. In 2015, it was on a downhill that the
riders went through Payolle before going up the Tourmalet and eventually reaching Cauterets.

The downhill run from the summit of the Aspin could well decide this stage, whether it's from a break or from the
group of favourites. A good descender will really go for it on this descent, knowing that a gap of even 10-15" at the
bottom could be enough to hold on for the stage win, there's only 1500m left at an easy gradient.

The Route

A flat opening 45kms or so as the course follows the valley of the Save river as far as Boulogne sur Gesse, where the road gets a bit more challenging for the next 45kms as they head west over seven lumps and bumps until they reach Chelle-Debat where they head south again and start on the foothills of the Pyrenées. 

The road starts to rise again from Tournay as they start on the Cat 4 Cote de Capvern, an easy introduction to the climbing, that although is 7.7kms long, it averages only 3.1%. A plateau for 25kms takes them past the intermediate sprint at Sarrancolin, which comes with just 25kms to go, we might see Peter Sagan popping up to take the points here.

At Arreau, with 19kms to go they start on the Col d'Aspin, a Cat 1 climb which is 12kms long and averages 6.5%, getting steeper towards the latter part of the climb, with parts hitting 7, 8 and 9%. Once over the top there's a very fast and tricky descent for 7kms, before the final kick up to the line for the last 1500m, the first kilometre averages 4.2%, the last 500m is almost flat. 

Contenders and Favourites

The day in the Massif Central mountains to Le Lioran didn't really tell us a whole lot about who's got it and who doesn't, as although the pace was very high, and they were pushing hard to eliminate riders out the back, we didn't really get any serious attack from the GC favourites. Movistar lined out with almost the whole team for a while, Then Sky took over with three riders in front of Froome inside the last 15km.

Pinot, Alaphilippe and Yates were struggling and dangling for quite a lot of the last 30kms, but they hung in there and didn't lose any time, Matthias Frank lost a few seconds at the end. Pinot's team-mate Reichenbach was impressive in finishing 14th. It was a good day for BMC too as Porte and Tejay finished strongly, but also, Amael Moinard also finished in the front group for them. Katusha had Purito and Zakarin; Kelderman, Barguil and Meintjes continue to underline their potential as future GC stars. 

When there was finally a bit of action at the finish, in the last kilometre or so of climbing on the Col de Font de Cere, Bardet at least gave it a go for us, but Valverde marked him and Quintana and Pinot came too, it looked for a while like they might get a small gap, but they were reeled in. Valverde proved what he said he was going to do and look after Quintana, he led him in to the last hill. But Quintana was looking very comfortable, Froome was distanced a little bit at the finish, but I wouldn't look too much in to that just now. 

So what of tomorrow's stage then? Do we see the break make it again? Will the peloton take a bit more care this time 
and not let them get an unassailable lead this time? As this is the first Pyreneen stage I think they'll control it a 
lot better and the break will be kept on a tight leash. There will be candidates go and as the real climbing doesn't 
really start until there's more than 140kms gone, it could be more rouleurs rather than climbers who will take on the 
break.

Guys like Steve Cummings, but I won't be backing him at just 22/1; Voeckler, Geschke, Preidler.. One I like at a big price though is Stef Clement at 250/1 with PP - he was moaning on Twitter on Wednesday that he missed the break of the day, "IAM dissappointed about not making it into the break today. Not too many chances will come, so it's a big loss." He might try to make up for it on this stage, or maybe Naesen again like on stage 4 or another possibility is Jerome 
Coppell who would have good climbing skills at the end of the day if the break looks like they will make it. I think 
it's worth keeping IAM onside and at 150/1 he's worth a few pennies.

Another for the possible long break would be Nicholas Edet for Cofidis, he's always good for a long range attack and 
can climb a bit, he's not gone up the road yet, but no one is pricing him. Ruben Plaza is another possible, but I think he'll wait for a more up-and-down day to go. Brice Feillu and Damiano Caruso could be two more at big prices that could go up the road.

There are three likely scenarios though - the long break, a late attack on the Col d'Aspin (or the descent) or an 
uphill sprint amongst the favourites. The second scenario of a late attack is a little harder to try to figure out - 
will it come from a GC man looking to shake it up like Froome or Quintana? I am not so sure, I don't think they'll be 
looking to show themselves too early, and whatever gain they might make on the ascent, they might lose again on the 
descent, just waste energy unnecessarily.

Richie Porte could attack as he has a bit of freedom now that he is further down on GC and they might be watching TVG 
(and Froomey might let his old mate go). At 50/1 with Bet365 I thought it was too big (and I missed the 66/1 he was 
when I started looking at it!), he is only 25/1 with PP, which is about right I think. Mikel Landa or Nieve could 
attack late in a similar sort of move, but I don't trust either of them. And Vincenzo Nibali - what if he was just sandbagging 
and playing games on the Pas de Peyrol and had an attack on a stage like this in mind? A late attack on the climb, a 
plunge down the other side in his trademark style and punch it up to the finish? It wouldn't surprise me.

Luis Leon Sanchez could pull off a similar move, Sanchez is good at a late surprise attack and is a good descender. 
And if it comes to a GC men's sprint, then they haven't much time to get themselves organised once off the climb - 
depending on how many team-mates teams have, it could be really strung out going in to the final 1.5km kick to the 
finish and those with 'leadout' men could be positioned well - Think Moinard for Porte, Nieve and Henao for Froome, 
maybe Izagirre, Herrada and Quintana to release Valverde in the sprint, Frank and Reichenbach, Alaphilippe for Martin 
or vice-versa depending on what team orders are.. Zakarin for Purito, who seems to be finding form now with his fine 
(but very annoying) 4th place on Le Lioran.

Julian Alaphilippe is too short again I think, the Aspin, if raced hard enough will take the sting out of his legs, he was really struggling on the Peyrol and the GC men were not even going full gas. Alejandro Valverde is the favourite across the board but the question is, will he be working for Quintana again like on Le Lioran and not  sprint? It's very possible, it looks like team orders are team orders and with Quintana on the same time as Froome so far they'll go all out to make sure nothing happens to Quintana or that they don't waste energy unnecessarily. I could be very wrong of course and he sprints up that hill, but I'm reluctant to get involved because of that worry.

Dan Martin has been very bullish on Twitter tonight, going on about 'bring on the mountains' and how they were "Gutted 
we missed out on the win again today but what a start we've had. In the race everyday. Plan to continue the run" I 
think the finish might be a little too easy for him at only 4% and 500m of flat, but he seems to be sprinting so well he could have a chance. It may even be that he attacks on the final kilometre or so of the Aspin and charges down the descent.

Wilko Kelderman and Warren Barguil could both go on the attack near the finish here, they both have a bit of a devil-may-care attitude and ride freely and may just be given a little bit of freedom if they attack. Kelderman has a strong finishing kick on him too as he showed on the uphill finish of stage 2, he might sneak in to the 4 places with Skybet at 66/1, he's only 33/1 with Paddy Power. 

One rider that looks quite short to me, but that I think might actually have a good chance here is Rui Costa. The Lampre Merida man wanted to focus on stages but Lampre were insisting that he should focus on GC and not lose time, but whether through accident or design he lost a lot of time on the stage up to Le Lioran, so that's that argument sorted. He could go in the break, he could attack late on the Aspin, he could attack on the descent, and if he manages to hang in there this time and not get dropped he would be one of the favourites in a gentle uphill sprint like this. Costa probably will have more freedom as Meintjes will be a marked man by the 'youth' of the race. . He's only 20/1 but worth a small bet I think.

Really hard to pick who will win this tomorrow, there are so many potential scenarios. I like some longshots for the break, I like some for the late attack but am struggling to find a strong case for one rider over another really of the GC favourites. Froome likes to lay down a marker on the first big mountain stage, but with this stage not finishing on the Aspin, it might be different. It should be a good stage though, could be a very exciting last 10kms or so.  Lots of little bets and matchbets scattered around for an interest, some of the matchbets look pretty good to me. 

Recommendations

0.2pts each-way on Stef Clement at 200/1 with Paddy Power paying 5 places

0. 5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 20/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts on Richie Porte at 50/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts each-way on Wilko Kelderman at 66/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.3pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 33/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

Matchbets

Thomas to beat Contador - 2pts at evens with Bet365

Costa to beat Pantano - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Kelderman to beat Mollema - 1.5pts at 5/4

Tony Gallopin to beat Steve Cummings - 2pts at 5/6 with Paddy Power

Ilnur Zakarin to beat Tom Dumoulin - 3pts at 4/6 with Paddy Power

Luis Leon Sanchez to beat Thomas Voeckler - 4pts at 8/13 with Paddy Power