Contenders and Favourites

So far we've had three sprint stages and have had three unexpected results you could say. Unexpected, yes, shocking? Not really. Ok, Cav caught nearly all of us off guard with his poor form coming in to the race, but he's a class act at the end of the day and was just faster and smarer in both circumstances. Kittel was the big disappointment then on stage 3, completely fluffing his lines but bounced back when least expected to do, on the uphill sprint on stage 4, defying odds of 10/1.

Greipel has not won a stage yet, he's been close, he's been not so close. Coquard has come as close as you can possibly come without winning and Peter Sagan has been his usual dominant self, winning a stage and coming 3rd twice and 4th once. Kristoff is getting closer, Degenkolb and Matthews aren't. Dan McLay, Sondre Holst Enger and Edward Theuns are after pulling off some fantastic rides with superb top ten placings in their first Tour de France.

Froome and Quintana have had incident-free passages so far, both have shortened in the betting, but I think Froome has gone way too short now on Betfair at 11/10, I didn't consider Contador a big rival for him anyway so the fall in his price has been overdone. I laid 3pts at 11/10 to lose 3.3. Richie Porte is another big loser thanks to his unfortunate puncture, going to be a big ask to get in to the top 3 now, but with Contador's injury he may still win that matchbet. A long way to go yet for Richie to fuck it up though.

So another sprint is the most likely outcome of today's stage, although the break could have a small chance, perhaps the best chance so far of the race. The course is lumpy and suitable to some, the distance is a lot shorter than the really long stages we had before and there will be a lot of tired legs after today's stage. And there will be a number of guys who coasted in in the Autobus who will have saved themselves specifically for a crack at today's stage or stages to come. 

Guys like Bodnar and Vermote who were trying to get away on stage 4 but failed - they might try again. De Gendt was also trying to get away on stage 4, but did get away as we know today, so he won't be trying again. Guys like Stuyven, Irizar, Voss, Delaplace and Naesen who were in breaks that just weren't given enough leeway, they might try again. And plenty of others who will fancy a day like this - Voeckler, Lars Bak, Chavanel, Geschke.. I think though they will be reeled in so I'm holding off on wasting money on them.

As for the sprint, well, it's trying to figure out which Mark Kittel turns up today time again. He said after his win on stage 4 that they had analysed their performances from the previous two stages in great detail, identified mistakes and changed the plan a little. He said he had been motivating the team and trying to keep them positive and it all must have worked as they were far, far better in taking the win. They let the others scrap it out a long way from the finish line and sat back a little, almost to the point that you thought that they were not going to be involved, David Miller had written them off saying that maybe Kittel had told them he wasn't up for it or something.. 

But they swept through brilliantly with three men in front of Kittel with less than a kilometre to go, bringing him right in to the mix, on Sagan's wheel. He still had one man leading him out coming in to the last 500m and it made a big difference, when he went, he had more power and a clear road in front of him. He tired a little bit as they approached the line, but that is only natural as it was a hard, uphill sprint, but he comfortably held all the other sprinters bar Coquard. 

And speaking of Bryan Coquard, another metre or two and I think he'd have won. If he'd come out past Sagan a second or two earlier, he'd have won. If his arms were just a few cms longer, or he threw his bike a bit more foreceably, he'd have won. If he'd been wearing proper shoes instead of those daft looking bowling shoes, he'd have won.. (right)

That finish was suited to him though with the uphill pull suiting a light, fast guy like him, he hasn't been able to get so close in the flat sprints. But now, he knows, that he can win - he was something like 2/1000ths of a second from winning. He thinks he can win a flat sprint with a tail-wind, maybe he was hinting at this one, as it's likely to be a tail-wind coming in to Montauban. Not a very strong one though, around 3-4mph, but it does look like being a tail-wind. He's 10/1 to come closest, or maybe even beat the Etixx man this time around.

Second favourite with Paddy Power is Mark Cavendish at 7/2, Bet365 have André Greipel as their second favourite at 4/1. Both have pretty equal chances, but to me, seeing them both so far in sprints, it's almost impossible to split them. Cavendish won on stage 1, with Greipel in 4th, and again in stage 3 with Greipel in 2nd place. In stage 4 up the hill they both were well off the pace, but Cav again beat Greipel with an 8th place finish versus Greipel's 14th. On that basis, to pick one of them, you'd have to go with form and back Cav each-way at 9/2 with Bet365. 

Peter Sagan is around 10/1 and as well as he was sprinting, he seemed to really suffer today. Ok, he knew he was losing the yellow jersey very early on, and just rolled home at his own pace, but he will have had some of the sting taken out of his legs I think with that effort and on a flat sprint, he might be outpaced. 

Dylan Groenewegen has been improving and managed a fine 4th in the uphill sprint of stage 4. He says that he is in the form of his life and the whole team is working for him in the sprints. He hasn't got close enough on the other flat stages though I think to have a chance here. Alexander Kristoff on the other hand is getting closer, with a 5th place on the last stage, where he even led for a while with about 100m to go but got swamped. It was a nice improvement on the 8th and 11th from the previous two sprints. With a strong team with him and with the legs improving, he might offer a little bit of value at 20/1.

Matthews, McLay, Enger, Laporte, Theuns - all should be fighting it out for top ten places, but I don't think they'll be making the podium. 

As it is though, although he has burnt me already, I'm going to go back in with Kittel at 15/8 on Betfair, it looks a decent enough price, he's as short as 11/8 elsewhere. I think Cav is a 'bet to nothing' at 9/2, he should podium again if he hasn't burnt himself out, and 3rd place is a scrap between Greipel, Groenewegen Theuns, McLay and Coquard, with a preference for Coquard. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 15/8 with Betfair or Betway 

1pt each-way on Mark Cavendish at 9/2 with Bet365 

Matchbets

Coquard to beat Kristoff, Kittel to beat Greipel and Theuns to beat Matthews - 2pts at 7/4 with Bet365

Cavendish to beat Sagan - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365

Cavendish to beat Greipel - 2pts at 4/6

McLay to beat Groenewegen - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365