Details

Published on Sunday, 03 July 2016 20:24

TDF Stage 3

Grandville to Angers 

Monday 4th July, 222kms 

The puncheurs had their day Sunday, but today should be another day for the fast men, who will get a chance to make up for errors or mistakes that cost them places and maybe even the win on stage 1.  

What a cracking stage today, full of drama right up until the last metre of the stage. The break did a great job, and in particular Jasper Stuyven, who almost pulled off a heroic ride to land the stage win, only being caught with less than 2kms to go. Drama early in the stage too with Contador crashing and taking a long time to get back on, but the peloton seemed to ease off to help him get back on. He lost time on the run in too though, he lost 48". 

Drama late in the stage too with the inevitable disaster for Richie Porte, he punctured in the closing kilometres and had NO team-mate wait for him. A slow Mavic wheelchange and all of a sudden he was losing lots of time and his race looks over before it even started. He did fly through the back markers, but the delay was a hammer blow to him. 

And up front, Sagan finally broke his drought in the Tour de France and landed the win for us, good for him and good for us to get a win on the board! Julian Alaphilippe looked to have done enough to take the win, but he probably went too early, allowing Sagan to take a draft behind him and pounce late. Sagan thought there were riders up the road ahead of him, hence the lack of celebration, he only found out in the interview area after the stage. 

Valverde was close, but not close enough in 3rd place, with Dan Martin just behind in 4th - if you backed him with Paddy Power you will collect as they are paying out on 5 places, something I only realised after placing the bets, was pointed out to me last night. That's a nice initiative if they keep it up for every stage. 

Bryan Coquard didn't have a great day and unfortunately he even contrived to finish 2 places behind Stuyven who was in the break all day.. that bust some of the matchbets, as everything else won, it would have been a 9pt profit otherwise. If only they had caught Stuyven maybe 1km or two earlier he should have easily beaten him.. very annoying! The double won though and with Sagan winning it was a 1.25pt profit.. if you got Martin with PP then it was a 4pt profit. I did tweet with about 5kms to go too that I was laying Stuyven at 1/3, I laid 5pts there to lose 1.5pts, that worked out pretty good too. 

Most of the previous finishes in Angers were decided with a sprint, including the last one claimed by Tom Boonen in 2004. But the city also hosted the first prologue in the history of the Tour in 1967. Despite Raymond Poulidor being the expected winner, the Yellow Jersey would once again elude him, finally going to Spaniard José María Errandonea, winner of the time-trial by 6 seconds. In 1972, another prologue took place there and the win by Eddy Merckx would launch the Grand Départ of the Tour.

The Route

Stage 3 looks like a second chance for the sprinters, with a stage that starts out rough and lumpy for the first 100kms, but flattens out for the last 120kms as they head south away from the coast. There's a Cat 4 climb inside the first 25kms and a nasty little pinch with 48kms gone at La Chapelle Urée. The rest of the course is pretty flat but the intermediate sprint with 52kms to go could mean that we see the break of the day reeled in in time for the sprinters to try to fight for points and the time bonus.

With 2kms to go the road dips down before a run uphill to the line for the last kilometre, at a gradient of around 2.5%. It's not steep enough to be called a puncheur's finish, but it will suit some sprinters more than others.

But it's a tricky finish in store for them, with two roundabouts to negotiate just outside 4kms to go, a sharp right-hander with 3.8km to go and a left-hander with 1.9km to go. They then cross the river just outside the Flamme Rouge and with just 300m to go they have to negotiate one final rounabout and make a right hander on to the finishing straight.(right) 

Contenders and Favourites

A lumpy, bumpy stage that sees them head inland and away from the coastal winds but it doesn't mean the route is any safer or more relaxed for the riders as we are still only 3 stages in. The break only has a really small chance of making it today, there will be too many of the sprinters teams looking to make up for the result on stage 1. Teams like Lotto-Soudal and Etixx Quickstep, Direct Energie and Katusha - all will be looking to make amends for blowing it on stage 1. 

The slightly uphill finish will suit some more than others, it's a slightly different proposition to the flat finish on stage 1, but the gradient isn't too hard at all, the rise is barely perceptible on Google Maps. As soon as they cross the river the road rises gently up the straight Boulevard Ayrault and as they swing through that final roundabout, if you're not in the first 5 or 10 going through the bend then you probably won't be winning.

Marcel Kittel will be desperate to make up for Saturday, that was a disaster for EQS after they were looking so strong for so long, they suddenly just evaporated, with Richeze and Sabatini pushing in the wind too early and leaving Kittel to have to fend for himself far too early. But Kittel also screwed up, instead of trying to come across on to Sagan's wheel he instead just pushed on on his own up the middle of the road in the wind. Cavendish on the other hand jumped on Sagan's wheel and got a great tow all the way to the last 50m or so when he jumped out and zipped past.

He's the 15/8 favourite with PP when their prices came out first, and it's one of those where you'll be kicking yourself tomorrow night if he wins, after he was just 6/5 for the opening stage. But also, he was beaten by Cavendish for the first time in his career on Saturday. He also came down in a crash on Sunday and there were shots of him with cuts on his left knee. He didn't seem to be too hampered by it, but rolled in 7 minutes down, probably saving energy.

Surely EQS will do a better job than they did on Saturday. They have to come late and take control coming over the bridge and through that last right hander on the roundabout, if Richeze and Sabatini are near the front with him in tow, I think he wins. He should be released after the final bend, meaning that even if he has to go early, there are only 200m or so to go. 

Mark Cavendish confounded the critics, including me, with his performance on Saturday, he played it very smart though and outfoxed Sagan and Kittel with his late burst. But 4/1 now? He might be a 'bet to nothing' with an each-way at 4/1, you get your stake back if he places in the top 3 again, and if you're a Cav fan, that might be worth a bet. I'm not interested in it though, he could be 1st, he could be 5th.. 

André Greipel had a mare for his backers on Saturday as he didn't even finish in the first 3, his lead-out going from hero's to zeros in the last kilometre, but more so that Greipel got lost again, as he can often do in a hectic sprint. Greg Henderson had done some huge power numbers in the last kilometre, all for nothing. Lotto-Soudal are sure to be desperate to right those wrongs though at the earliest opportunity, and I'd rather be on him at 4/1 or bigger to get it right at the second time of asking than Cavendish. 

Peter Sagan is in the yellow jersey after a superb sprint saw him finally land his first stage victory since 2013. Unless a break wins by a long way, or Sagan has an incident then he should retain his yellow jersey probably until Wednesday. With the form he's in, and the yellow jersey on his shoulders, he may just lift himself on to the podium again. There are few better than Sagan at a streetfight like this one with the uphill pull from the bridge and around the final right hand bend, the uphill finish suits him too..

And the pressure is off.. a stage win and a Yellow Jersey and Green Jersey already in the bag, he can float in to a great position coming in to the final bend and could land another podium. 6/1 each-way might be worth a small bet again. 

Apparently Dylan Groenewegen has been ill, but that didn't seem to hold him back on Saturday, as he came there strongly with two team-mates in the last 2kms. He lost position a bit in the last kilometre though and then got held up by the crash, he said he was lucky to stay upright. Hard to know what to make of all of that, but I'm not backing him again until I see signs of an improvement.    

Bryan Coquard was interviewed before today's stage and said that his condition is fantastic but he wasn't sure if he was going to be there at the death today, he was hoping, but didn't sound too confident. In the intermediate sprint during the stage he was right there near the front, but then decided to follow Cavendish's wheel, a schoolboy error as Cavendish didn't really go for the sprint and Kittel and Greipel got the jump on him on the left. He should like this finish you'd think, the uphill finish might suit him more than the heavier guys, if he can tuck in behind Greipel or Sagan say he might get a good tow to the last 100m where it levels out a little bit. 

Sam Bennett is a walking wounded at the moment, forget about him. Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb are going to click one of these days, but both finished way off the pace today. Edward Thuens, Christophe Laporte and Dan McLay made the top 10 on stage 1, they should be there or thereabouts again.

A tricky stage, as always though, but I think the break will be reeled in on time. The peloton left it very late today, causing panic for the last 10kms, I think they won't take as many chances tomorrow. I can see Kittel making up for Sunday, but I also think Sagan is in such good form he can't be ruled out of landing another podium spot. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Marcel Kittel at 13/8 with Boylesports

1pt e/w on Peter Sagan at 6/1 with Various 

Matchbets:

Coquard to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365

Samuel Dumoulin to beat Davide Cimolai - 1pt at 11/8 with Bet365