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Published on Saturday, 02 July 2016 17:44

TDF Stage 2

Saint-Lô to Cherbourg

Sunday July 3rd, 183km

The sprinters might have had their fun on stage 1, but it's unlikely that we will see them involved in this finish, with an uphill pull for the last 3kms, that includes the Cat 3 climb of the Cote de la Glacerie and a final pull to the line at 5.7% for 700m.

Well that wasn't the start that anyone expected was it, Mark Cavendish outsprinting Marcel Kittel in what was an incredibly messy sprint. The leadout trains of Lotto and Etixx were in great shape with 3kms to go and then it just fell apart and riders were all over the place. So much so that in the chaos Michael Morkov hit a barrier, or something sticking out from it and went down, taking Edvald Boasson Hagen and the desperately unlucky Sam Bennett with him. 

The sprinters were left on their own, Sagan jumped from a long way out, Kittel spent a long time in the wind on Sagan's left, whereas Cavendish tucked in behind Sagan and came late and fast. Kittel seemed to look across at Sagan and thought he had this, he didn't seem to see or expect Mark Cavendish to come past him as fast as he did. Worst possible start then with Cavendish beating Kittel and Groenewegen, who had been very prominent getting held up by the crash too. Bennett's sprint cost him the matchbet win as Dumoulin finished way down the field. Coquard beat Kristoff at least, by one place.. 

After a bit of a chaotic start at the Mont St Michel turnaround, the race finally got underway and the attacks started immediately, with Jan Barta and Paul Voss, who had practically been riding pillion passenger on the TV motorbikes during the neutralised zone, going on the attack for Bora. Leigh Howard went with them, Alex Howes and Anthony Delaplace chased behind. Voss took the KOM points on offer after breaking away.. 

Meanwhile, Alberto Contador provided the first GC favourites scare of the Tour when he came down heavily with about 75kms to go, hitting the deck hard with Brent Bookwalter and Luke Rowe. It looks like he has a lot of road rash on his shoulder and elbow, but should be ok. He did have to perform the tricky manouever of changing a broken shoe while moving, Matteo Tossato showed what a loyal teammate he is by holding Contador's insole in his mouth while swapping his shoe for him (right).  

This came at a time when the guys at the front tried to split things in a cross wind and the pace was really high, with the likes of Pozzovivo, Cummings, Voeckler and Eisel all tailed off. But Cancellara called for calm up front to let Bertie back on and it all came back together again. The break did a superb job though and Howes and local boy Delaplace were not caught until 5kms to go, and the race was set up for the sprint and Cavendish's superb sprint win. 

The Route

After leaving Saint Lo they arc their way towards the west coast of the Manche, cresting three Cat 4 bumps in the first 50kms before coming down to the sea at Lessay. They spend the next 30kms hugging the coastline on the flat roads before the road starts to get a little lumpy again inside the last 60kms as they swing around the top of the peninsula and it starts to get interesting inside the last 10kms. First up is the little bump of the Cote de'Octeville with 9km to to, a 1.3km drag at 4.6% and after 2kms of a descent and 3km on the flat they tackle the difficult end to the stage.

With 3kms to go they first scale the Cote de la Glaciere, a 1.9km drag that comes in off the coast, it averages 6.5%, so it's probably where we will say goodbye to the sprinters, especially the less punchy guys like Marcel Kittel. With barely 500m of flat at the top they go straight on to the final rise to the line, a 700m rise at 5.7%. 

The last hills will be the decisive part of this stage of course, but so too will the fact that they will spend the vast majority of the stage on the coast of a very windy part of France

The early climbs will encourage a big battle at the start of the stage to get in the break, with two Cat 4s and a Cat 3 climb in the opening 52kms of the stage. Expect to see Paul Voss in the break again in an effort to retain the jersey for a few days more at least. I think it will be very hard for the break to hold off the peloton though as there is a good chance for one of the puncheurs to take the yellow today, as Cavendish will lose time on that run in. Also, the cross-winds on the coast will not be helpful for the break, it will be a hard day in the saddle for them.

The last 3kms are going to be wild though, there are going to be so many teams and riders trying to pack in to the front of the race and get through the town of Cherbourg safely and in a prime position to attack the last climb. There are a number of bends, roundabouts and split roads in the last 10kms so riders will have to be on their guard.

As they approach the 3km to go mark the road starts to rise, starting first on the Cote de La Glacerie, winding through a hairpin, a roundabout which takes them off the main road and on to the suburban streets (right),and four bends on tight roads in just over a kilometre.

Once past the KOM point there's a brief pause for 500m, slightly downhill as they come back down on to the main road. There's a slight kink as they come back on to the main road with 700m to go (left), but otherwise it's a pretty straight run to the line with good, wide roads.

The finish isn't that steep really, when you look at the road, it drags up but is not too difficult, it's a strong puncheur or strong sprinter who can climb a bit I think who will take it. It's a similar finish to the finish in Le Havre last year, that was 850m at 7%, it will be remembered as the stage where Tony Martin crashed out while in the yellow jersey, but up the road, the 7/4 favourite Peter Sagan was mugged by Martin's team-mate Zdenek Stybar who jumped off the front with 800m to go, and as all the others in the little group at the front waited for Sagan to do the chasing, Stybar soloed to victory. 

Behind, Sagan again finished 2nd, but Bryan Coquard was just behind him and Degenkolb and Van Avermaet were right there too. Paddy Power were out early on Friday night with their prices for this stage and had made Julian Alaphilippe their 5/1 favourite. Ok, Alaphilippe is in great form this year and many people fancy him to have a great race, but 5/1? That's way too short to me. He should be right up there though, he can handle the Claciere without at problem I think and will be involved in the uphill sprint to the finish. But if there are some of the sprinter types there at the finish, he could be beaten. 

Alejandro Valverde is the 9/1 second favourite, and should like a finish like this, but I'm not that convinced he'll be getting too involved in this finish, he is here to do a job for Quintana and he hasn't done much since the Giro, as he has the Olympics in his mind. He wasn't firing on all cylinders at the national championships, but stil finished 4th in the road race. I'm not sure he'll be fighting for a win here, but you never know with Valverde, he's always in the hunt for a win. 

Peter Sagan has to have a huge chance tomorrow, he looked so good today, sprinting in the wind for a long time and still taking 3rd. He will love this tricky, technical finish and you can be sure he'll be in a good position coming down that hill I mention above and through the kink on to the finishing straight, so will be in prime position hitting the last 500m. He showed today that he doesn't particularly need a leadout, but Gatto and Kreuziger are good men for this sort of finish, if anything were to happen to Sagan, I'd almost give Gatto a chance.

It might depend though on how sore Contador is after his crash today, the team might be asked to rally around him and look after him, Sagan might have to fight it alone. Even on his own though, it looks like a great opportunity to finally break his drought. As I mentioned above, this finish is like the finish in Le Havre where he 'won' the group sprint, as long as no one has gone up the road again he has a big chance. 

At first glance when the prices came out I thought that the 33/1 on Dan Martin was way too big and mentioned it on Twitter around lunchtime. He will have no problem with the Glaciere, he should be near the front, dragged in there by Tony Martin, Keisse and Vakoc. With a finishing slope that is the exact same gradient more or less as the finish to Liege Bastogne Liege (1.5kms at 5.6%) then he has to have a chance you'd think, he's a master of that finish. It doesn't look anything like as steep as the LBL hill though on Google maps, but if it is, watch out for Martin. 

Greg Van Avermaet likes an uphill finish like this too, as Sagan knows - he outsprinted the World Champ in Rodez last year on an uphill finish (was far steeper than this though) and also in Tirreno Adriatico and in the Omloop. He will be right up there you'd think on the first hill and if near the front hitting 300m to go will have a chance in the sprint, he finished 5th on that stage to Le Havre behind Sagan. He hasn't won since the 14th March though so I'm a little reluctant to back him at just 12/1 now, he was 25/1 this morning, that was just about acceptable. 

One that I really like for tomorrow though is Bryan Coquard - that day in Le Havre, on the tough, uphill finish, Coquard was '2nd' behind Sagan. He came late today in the sprint and finished 7th, but there was nothing between him and 2nd place really. He weighs only 60kgs and climbs fantastically well for a sprinter over short, punchy climbs like this, and if he can be in the mix hitting the home straight he'll have to have a chance of pulling off the win. If he wins, with Sagan outside the top 3, he takes the yellow jersey. 

Michael Matthews is another of course who be involved here, this is his speciality, uphill sprints after a tough finale that shakes out the likes of Kittel and Cav. He has been pretty average this year though, but with Gerrans and Impey working for him he should be in the right place at the right time. I think though if they are there, Coquard and Sagan will outsprint him in his current form. He was invovled in the crash today, but they say he is ok, and Matty White hinted that this stage was a big target for them as he said that with Sagan taking bonus seconds today it makes it a little harder for Matthews to take yellow, as if that was the plan coming in to the race. 

Normally I'd have been mentioning EBH has having a chance, but the big Norwegian hit the ground hard in the crash at the finish, so although he seemed to be going really well and was involved in that sprint I'm going to pass over him for tomorrow. Alex Vuillermoz might like the first part of this climb on the Glaciere, and might try an attack there, but I don't think he'd win a sprint if it comes to it. His little team-mate Sam Dumoulin might be involved though, he is good at uphill sprint finishes too. 

And speaking of Dumoulin, Tom Dumoulin could feature also, he is strong on finishes like this, all depends on where he's positioned after the Glaciere, he has the power for an uphill sprint. Jesus Herrada, Daniel Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Fabian Cancellara, Jarlinson Pantano - all could be involved in the sprint, if it comes to it. And I say 'if it comes to it' as there is a chance we see someone do a 'Stybar' like in Le Havre last year, stealing away on the penultimate climb, charging down the descent and holding them off on the final climb - guys like Tony Gallopin, Adam Yates and Luis Leon Sanchez. 

So not a great start today, but like Contador, we'll dust ourselves down and go again. I like Coquard tomorrow and took 40/1 on him earlier, there is still 25/1 available on him and that's worth an each-way bet. Peter Sagan looks the obvious choice though, I took 10/1 earlier, he's best price around 4/1 now with Betfair and I think he's worth a saver. Dan Martin at 22/1 is one to have a nibble at too, as this finish should suit him so well. So hard to narrow it down though as Valverde, Alaphilippe, Van Avermaet and Matthews could all be involved as well. It's sure to be a fantastic finish though. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Peter Sagan at 4/1 on Betfair

0.5pts each-way on Bryan Coquard at 25/1 with various

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 22/1 with various 

Matchbets:

Sagan to beat Matthews, Martin to beat Herradda , Coquard to beat Stuyven, Gallopin to beat Paul Martens - 1pt at 3/1 with PP

Sagan to beat Matthews and Martin to beat Herrada - 2pts on the double at 5/4 with PP

Rui Costa to beat Wilco Kelderman - 2pts at 11/10 with Bet365