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Published on Friday, 12 July 2019 18:50

TDF 2019 Stage 8

Mâcon - Saint-Étienne  

Saturday 13th July, 199kms

A hilly run to Saint Etienne sees them take on an Ardennes-like course, with hill after hill dotting the 199km route. The Tour last finished in Saint Étienne in 2014 when Alexander Kristoff got the better of Sagan and Démare in a sprint finish. 

It might have ended in a sprint finish in 2014, but I'm not sure it will today as this is a very lumpy day in the saddle and it looks like a stage that could well favour the breakaway. Five Cat 2s and two Cat 3s will tempt out the KOM hunters, and we could very well see Tim Wellens and Thomas de Gendt form their break double act again. It could have been one for Ciccone to go after more KOM points, but now he's in yellow it's unlikely for the time being, he might just sit in and enjoy his time in the jersey and save his legs for bigger stages to come.  

One thing I wanted to pass on was some info I got today from a journo who is well connected. He was the same guy who said to me last year that he had been told from within the Sky camp that Froome would win the Giro with a week to go when he was something like 28/1.. I regrettably didn’t get involved last year at those silly prices, but just passing on what he sent me today.. “Former Italian colleague who knows cycling told me yesterday that Bernal is in great shape and is going to win overall. He’s given me good info in the past.”

I must add that I thought the move against Bernal and for Thomas in the betting was overdone, Bernal going out to 4/1 on Betfair made him far better value than he was just 24hours before. I don’t think we should read too much in to yesterday’s result, it was a bit of an odd one in terms of a finish. It was on gravel, it was very steep and I think G actually caught a lot by surprise by attacking when he did, including Bernal.

Granted, it was the first real test and G did leave all the others behind, but there’s a lot of racing to be done yet and the real high mountains are where Bernal will come in to his own. So I’m adding 2 more points at 4.8 on Betfair on Bernal to win overall, I think he will definitely shorten up from that in the next week.

Also, I backed Michael Matthews (without Sagan) for the points at 11/4 with Bet365, I have a feeling Viviani might not make it to Paris and Matthews will keep chipping away. 2pts on that. 

Stage 7 Review

So we got the non-break I expected, more or less, with just two riders going up the road. Then hours of boring nothingness, with only crashes to Tejay, Teunissen and Roche to give the commentators something to talk about. That was until the intermediate sprint with 34kms to go when Colbrelli got a big leadout and took 3rd place ahead of Sagan, Viviani and Matthews..

But suddenly the peloton was strung out and Dan Martin and Nairo Quintana got caught out off the back.. Very quickly they were 38" down and it looked like a massive mistake by the two GC men. Luckily for Martin though that Quintana was caught out as well, as Movistar dropped men back to help with the pursuit and they quickly got back on, partly helped by an easing back in pace again in the bunch. 

It all came down to the sprint then as expected and going in to it Groenewegen was still favourite at 3.2 on Betfair, with Viviani at 3.45, Ewan at 7.0, Sagan at 11 and Kristoff at 14. The sprint was the usual chaos, but Jumbo did a huge amount of work in the last few kilometres, WVA in particular, and they were rewarded when Groenewegen pounced late to just take it from our man Ewan.

It was a very disappointing sprint from Viviani in the end after DQS looked like they had everything under control coming into the last kilometre, he was let go by Richeze but didn't seem to be going at a high enough speed, the guys coming from behind him came at a faster speed and quickly swamped him. But it turns out that he supposedly had a front wheel puncture in the sprint, apparently that's what he told RAI after the stage.. it explains why he went out like a light from a perfect leadout I guess.. more bad luck.. 

We were also very unlucky I think with Ewan, he once again came very close, if he'd have started his kick maybe 2" quicker I think he'd have won it, Groenewegen came from behind the lot of them but when he launched he had huge speed and shot past the first four, Ewan went after him but just missed out. He beat Sagan again though, so limited the loss to 1pt, close to a good day with Ewan.

Very disappointing sprints from Kristoff and Trentin though, Kristoff couldn't replicate his power-packed sprint and finished down in 15th, in fact, Jasper Philipsen sprinted for UAE instead, maybe Kristoff wasn't feeling so good today. Trentin came in down the pack in 44th, but there were good sprints by Colbrelli in 4th and Nizzolo in 7th. 

The Route

Almost 200kms, the stage is punctuated with hill after hill, with five Cat 2 climbs and 2 Cat 3 climbs, but lots of other little lumps and bumps to get over along the way. They head generally south-west all day, bar a little section just after half way where they turn and head south-east for about 30kms. The first climb comes after 20kms and they come more or less every 20kms after that.

There are five Cat 2 climbs, and they are Cat 2 because they are quite steep - up around the 7, 8 and even 9.7% levels, but they are quite short, averaging around 5kms, with one as short as 2.1kms and one 8.5kms. The final climb could well decide the stage, even though it's only 1.9kms, it averages 7.9%, but it does kick up to 14.5% for the last 500m, a perfect launchpad for the strongest rider. It tops out with just 12.5kms to go, 8kms of which are downhill. 

The last 5kms are going to be challenging, with a fast descent down to the 4.5km to go mark, then it climbs gently for 1.5kms at a gradient of around 1.6% before kicking up for the next kilometre at 5%, the top coming with just 2kms to go. A quick 1km descent and they start the last kilometre, which is uphill, just about, averaging around 1% all the way to the line. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a difficult stage to predict, simply because anything can and will happen. It looks like it could be a day for the break given the profile, and that the GC teams probably won't want too much stress heading in to a tough second week. Also, with Porte seemingly going ok Trek might not want to waste too much energy chasing for Ciccone. But it could also be a day for the real tough sprinters, The hardest, longest climbs come with more than 70kms still to go so the pace won't be too hot and some will be able to hang in there.

The final climb is very short at only 1.9kms, but in reality it's 1km at 12%, some of the stronger sprinters that have hung on until then will be under immense pressure to stay with the peloton, but if they can hang in to within 20" or so of the bunch coming over the top they should get back on in the last 12kms in time for the sprint.  

Break lottery first - it could be a day that tempts out Greg Van Avermaet, CCC need to start finding some results, and he's probably their best chance. He has won on a far tougher day than this to Le Lioran in 2016 and outsprinted Sagan up that tough finish in Rodez the year before. Last year he got involved in a break on stage 10, to Grand Bornand won by Alaphilippe, a very lumpy day, he seems to start to come alive around this point of the race, he finished 4th that day.

This is a bit Ardennes-like, he shouldn't be too troubled by the climbs, unless he's with a really strong climber, and I could see him attacking away to a solo victory on that final climb. Not only that, but if it does come back together he could be one of the strongest guys for a finish like this, we could have a double chance with him. He's just 22/1, they clearly fear him, but I'm definitely having some of him. 

As I mentioned already above, Lotto-Soudal could well send Tim Wellens and Thomas De Gendt up the road again, or at least one of them, there are 29pts up for grabs on the road and that could be a nice buffer to start to build a decent lead with. Wellens does seem to struggle at the end of stages though after putting in the effort, and TDG totally blew up on Thursday, so if they do get in the break we could see something similar with someone who let them fight it out for KOMS fresher in the last 14kms, especially on the final climb where a powerful attack should distance them. 

Another rider who was in the break and did remarkably well on Thursday was Xandro Meurisse, he was a little bit of an unseen hero in finishing 3rd, he was barely seen because of the focus on the battle out front and among the GC men. He was strong all day, just couldn't match Ciccone and Teuns in the finale, but stayed on well. He has won a lumpy stage of the 4 days of Dunkirk before so doesn't mind the lumpy days, and finished 11th in that lumpy stage to Colmar won by Sagan on Wednesday and 8th in the stage won by Alaphilippe on Monday and was 14th in the Dauphiné - he clearly has excellent legs and he needs to take advantage of them while they're still hot, 50/1 is pretty good. 

Natnael Berhane seemed keen to fight for KOM points on Thursday, but I think maybe he should wait and preserve his energy for one of the tougher stages with longer climbs and more points. I thought Toms Skujins could be tempted out for another go but team orders with Giulio in yellow dictates that he has to eat some wind for a while for the team. 

Looking back again to that stage 10 last year, other riders that were involved in the big break were Rein Taaramae (finished 3rd), Serge Pauwels (5th) and Lilian Calmejane (6th). Rein Taaramae I've already mentioned a few days ago, TDE will be looking for men in the break on a day the break has a big chance and I think both Taaramae and Calmejane could try to get in it. At 300/1, he's on my team. 

Taaramae is good at these kinds of days, Lilian Calmejane is coming close to his home town of Albi, the next stage finishes there, but this looks much more like a day for the break succeeding, the next stage is likely to end in a bunch sprint of some sort. The stage he won in 2017 was also stage 8 and it had a very similar profile over a similar distance. He should have plenty of support out on the road and he knows the roads well, have to be on him with all that coming together. He was quickly cut from 40/1 to 33/1 with Bet365 as soon as they opened, but there's 50/1 at Betway which is a great price. 

Serge Pauwels tried to get in the break on stage 5, he was in the first break that got about 20" but was eventually reeled in and missed the next break that made it. It shows though that he is keen to get in the breaks and the legs are good, it might be one of those days where we get 12 or 14 in a break and there could be some teams with two riders in there, Pauwels could join GVA. At 300/1, he's in the team. 

Alexis Gougeard also tried to get in the break on stage 5 but missed, but he also looks like a likely candidate for this stage, AG2R might have to go a little bit more on the offensive now that Bardet is struggling. Gougeard is going well this season and won a similarly lumpy stage solo in the Circuit Sarthe in April. He also won the Boucles de L'Aulne in June solo too by over a minute, on a circuit that had numerous short climbs of 6-8% gradient. He's a massive 300/1 to boot too. 

Nico Roche is another I thought about for tomorrow, but I think he might wait for a more pure mountains stage, and give himself a bit of time to get over his crash today. Guillaume Martin and Fabio Aru are two more I was thinking might want to try something, they are both over 3 minutes down now, but it's probably not enough of a gap to allow dangerous riders like that up the road just yet. Wait until they are maybe 8-10 mins down. 

The bookies have made Alaphilippe the favourite once again, but he's too short for me at 8/1, can reassess in play to see if it will come back together.. he is keen to get his jersey back though, which he would do with the bonus seconds on that final climb and at the finish. If it does come back together, Sagan, Matthews, Colbrelli and Van Aert could all be invovled again, but I'm going to take a chance that tomorrow we'll see the break make it and we have some very nice odds running for us. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Greg Van Avermaet at 22/1 with 365

0.5pts e/w on Lilian Calmejane at 50/1 with Betway (take down to 33/1)

0.3pts win on Xandro Meurisse at 50/1 with Betway

0.2pts win on Serge Pauwels at 300/1 with 365

0.2pts win on Alexis Gougeard at 300/1 with 365

0.2pts win on Rein Taaramae at 300/1 with 365

Matchbets

Buchmann to beat Kruijswijk - 2pts at 8/11

Nothing else really interests me, too many are too close to call.