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- Published on Monday, 06 June 2016 23:43
Dauphiné: Stages 5-7
June 5th to June 12th
We start to get towards the serious end of the Critérium du Dauphiné now with a weekend trilogy of tough mountain stages. It starts with the uphill finish to Vaujany, followed by the Queen stage to Meribel on Saturday and then the final stage to Superdevoluy on Sunday.
Something strange is happening to my site content management system, can't save any new text to this preview, so I've added Part 3 here which hopefully will work!
Stage 5
Stage 5 - La Ravoire to Vaujany
Friday June 10th, 140km
A strange finish today, it turned out that finish was a lot harder than it looked on paper, not just to us trying to pick winners, but to the sprinters team's also. In the end it was a 'puncheur' finished 1st, 2nd, 5th and 7th, with Eddie B proving too powerful for Bouhanni in the last 200m. Sam Bennett was in a brilliant position (5th wheel) going through the tricky chicane with about 800m to go, but around 500m to go a wave came up on his left and Nathan Haas who was in front of him almost stopped dead and held him up and by the time he got going again he was in about 15th place with only about 300m to go.
Kristoff again failed to deliver, finishing way down in 18th place, and after some great work by Zico Waeytens, Koen de Kort and the G-A guys, Degenkolb finished 8th, he's getting closer.. It was a good sprint by Alaphilippe to take 2nd, the guy is just so powerful, he came from a mile back with 100m to go and if the line was 10m further along, he'd have won.. Sam Dumoulin also sprinted well to take 6th, he's getting closer too.
In the chaos of the sprint, Alberto Contador and Richie Porte were ruled to have finished at the wrong side of a split and were given a time loss of 9" - this sees Froome move up to just 4" behind Contador and now is ahead of Porte who has slipped back to 3rd.
We're starting to get towards the business end now with the trilogy of crucial stages that will decide the outcome of this race. First up is a very short but punchy stage that leaves La Ravoire and heads almost due south, but via a large Z shape. They get 12kms of fast, flat roads at the start, but then the climbing starts. There's a Cat 4 and Cat 3 climb to get over in the next 11km, but the first real test will be the climb of the Col du Barloz, a Cat 1 climb that averages 6.5% over 7,8kms, but there is a kilometre at the start and at the end that average over 9%.
There's barely a kilometre of flat roads for the rest of the stage and over the next 40kms they climb a Cat 2, Cat 4 and Cat 3 climb before diving downhill for 15kms to Vizille, from where the road starts climbing again. The drag up to the finish in Vaujany is nearly 40kms long in total, first climbing for 20kms at 2.2%, getting steeper nearer the top. There's a little plateau for 5kms until they reach Allemont and after an easyish 5kms of climbing they then reach the last kick up to the summit finish in Vaujany.
The climb to Vaujany averages 6.5% for 6.4kms, but it's quite a varied climb, with a kilometre at 10.8% and a kilometre at 12.5% inside the last 4.5kms. Once over the steep 12.5% section there's just 1400m to go, of which the next kilometre is a gentle downhill before the final 400m kick up at 7.3%.
It's going to be a wild stage, these short ones usually are and they very often make for very exciting viewing. The GC men, if feeling up for it could be going at each other from 100kms out with the Cat 1 climb of the Col du Berloz. It's more likely though with Saturday's Queen stage to Meribel in mind that they show a little restraint. A strong break of climbers will build a healthy enough lead as some KOM hopefuls go in the hunt for the jersey with so many points available out of the route. It should be that Sky, Tinkoff and BMC keep them on a tight leash though later in the stage and within catching distance by the time they start the last 30kms. There are crucial time bonuses available at the finish after all.
Dan Martin has been made a very short price 7/1 favourite for this stage, and I'm not really sure why. Yes, he's in great shape clearly from what we saw in the Prologue, and he has also been prominent at the front quite a lot, but in stage 2 on the uphill finish to Chalmazal, on a slope of 6.5%, he only managed 12th. Ok, the steeper slopes of 11-12.5% are more his style, the type of slopes of the Mur de Huy, but he could be caught out by the flat kilometre before the line and the easier 7% last 400m. I think, and as always, I hope, that he goes well, but he won't be carrying my money tomorrow.
Chris Froome should go well, but I'm not sure this finish suits him so well either, I think we might see a small group come to the last 3kms or so and if so, he won't outsprint them. Alberto Contador will really like the steep slopes on the final 5kms, but he will find it hard to get away, he'll be a marked man. And also, he claimed this evening that he is still missing a little speed, he got caught out by the split today and lost what could by 9 very valuable seconds.
I think Richie Porte will like this finish, it's a bit Willunga Hill like, which is 3kms at 7%, he could attack with 3.5kms to go on the 5.8% section and time trial through the last 1500m, or even sit in and attack in the last 400m like he did in Trentino and Catalunya last year. He is lean and fit and clearly in great shape based on his prologue, beating Froome by 6". He opened at 25/1 and I thought that was too big so took some, he is now in to 16/1 best price and as short as 12/1.
Julian Alaphilippe has to be considered as well of course, he is climbing really well, and after seeing how he finished today's stage, if it comes to a reduced group of favourites coming to the last few kilometres then he surely has a chance. He was quite a way back though on Chalmazal, in 28th place, so it's putting me off a little on him, although I'm sure he'll have his supporters at 11/1 with PP, he's only 8/1 with Will Hill.
Bauke Mollema, Joaquim Rodriguez and Daniel Moreno could all be involved in this finish, and maybe Moreno and Herrada can pull off their double act in the finale again, I wouldn't put it past Herrada after that finish on stage 2. The 28/1 with Ladbrokes is tempting, the 18/1 with Will Hill isn't so much.
One rider I was waiting to back for this is Alexis Vuillermoz, he was furious when Bardet knocked him off his bike on the way to the finish in Chalmanaz on stage 2 as he said himself afterwards "alors que je visais la victoire d'étape" - "I was aiming for the stage win". He looks good value at 28/1 with Bet365, he's only 12/1 with Hills, I think he could fly away off the front here with 2kms to go and the favourites might just look at each other like when he won in the TDF last year.. the rider that chased him home that day? Dan Martin of course..
Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot should go well, and Adam Yates and Tony Gallopin could attack earlier in the climb, and what about Fabio Aru? Can he repeat his great escape from Wednesday when the road is going uphill rather than downhill? I don't know.. but wouldn't put it past him.. Mikel Landa could be a big danger as well if he is anything near to his best, and we could see Poels, Landa and maybe Henao try multiple attacks like they did on stage 2, and maybe Landa will make it stick while Contador and Porte watch Froome instead.. Too much of a risk though that he just works for Froome instead though to back him at 14/1.
Lastly, my final pick is Daniel Navarro - I've heard he is looking forward to this stage and he will like this final climb. He is going really well, he attacked multiple times on the final climb to stage 2 and although he is sitting quite high up in the GC (9th), I think if he was to go on the attack in the closing stages he might not be chased down as quickly as someone like Dan Martin or Julian Alaphilippe. I took 50/1 when PP opened around 6pm, he is now 33/1 with Ladbrokes and that's worth a bet.
Recommendations:
0.5pts each-way on Richie Porte at 25/1 (take the 16/1 with PP)
0.5pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 28/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Daniel Navarro at 50/1 (take the 33/1 with Ladbrokes)
MatchBets
Daniel Navarro to beat Pierre Rolland - 3pts at evens with Bet365
Porte to beat Contador - 2pts at 8/11 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Col du Barloz
Stage 6
Stage 6 - La Rochette to Méribel
Saturday June 11th, 141km
Almost a very nice winner today, Richie Porte rode as well as I expected him to, but was still not able to beat the greatest actor in the peloton, Chris Froome. One minute Froome is on his knees, sliding back through the group, losing the wheel, and generally looking in all sorts of trouble, the next minute he is sprinting away up the road like on a motorised bike again. Only Porte was able to stay with him, Contador was unable to do anything and Dan Martin, who had been looking really good a few seconds before, suddenly found himself floundering in the wake of Froome's acceleration.
Martin ended up dragging Contador up the rest of the climb and Adam Yates rode up to join them, but couldn't do much more. Ahead I was screaming at Porte to just sit in, but instead he decided to ride - he should have known there would be no gifts from Froome, even to ex team-mates, the bonus seconds were far too important. Porte had no answer to the relentless driving by Froome, who didn't even seem to be out of breath, an incredible ride again from him.
The place money landed though and the Porte to beat Contador landed, but incredibly, despite Navarro finishing 13th, he was beaten by Rolland, who finished a massively surprising 7th place but in the same group, ahead of some fancied names. It meant a zero profit or loss though despite picking the 2nd place rider..
Behind Martin's e/w backers at the very short price he was were left cursing as Adam Yates pipped him by millimetres for 3rd place. Contador came home 2" later and Bardet 4" later in 6th. Pierre Rolland and Louis Meintjes had two great rides with top 10 finishes, they came home in the same little group as Rodriguez, Landa and Navarro.
Losers on the day, which I wasn't totally surprised with, were Aru and Pinot, they were dropped surprisingly early though. The Alaphilippe mania maybe can be calmed down a little as he was no match for the top climbers when they went, but then again, it would have been pretty extraordinary if he had. It was a good ride from him all the same to finish in the same group as the likes of Rodriguez, Navarro and Mollema.
It means though that the two picks I picked for the overall, Froome for the win and Porte each-way now sit in 1st and 2nd place, with Porte holding a 20" lead over Contador and 30" lead over Martin. We may be looking at the final podium with the way the top two guys rode away today, but we know that nothing can be taken for granted in this race ever.
Stage 6 then, and at 141kms, it's only 1km longer than stage 5. The Queen stage from La Rochette to Meribel is going to be another short and brutal stage, with the tone being set by the opening 24kms which sees them tackle a Cat 1 and a Cat 2 climb, with the climbing starting after just 6kms.
A 13kms descent off the Col de Grand Cucheron and 13kms along the valley takes them to La Chambre and the foot of the HC climb of the Col de la Madeleine, a famous old climb, oft-used in the Tour de France (below: Ludo Peters in 1979 having some fun..) In fact it has been used 25 times in total in the TDF since 1969, with stunning views over Mont Blanc.
The Madeleine is 19.2kms long at an average of 7.9%, and it's a very steady 7.9%, rarely dipping above and below it all the way to the top, which reaches almost 2,000m. The last time the TDF came over the Madeleine was in stage 19 in 2013, where one Pierre Rolland led over the top. They crest the top of the climb with 71kms to go, of which they spend the next 25kms descending before the road starts rising upwards again as they come out of the valley.
First 
up is the Cat 1 climb of the Montée Des Frasses, 8kms at 6.5%, then a twisty, fast descent for 13kms to the foot of the final ascension to the finish at Meribel. The climb to Meribel starts with 12.3kms to go and it rises at an average of 6.6%, but it's a more uneven sort of climb than the Madeleine. The opening 3kms are a steady 7%, then a kilometre at 5.5% takes them to the steepest part with a kilometre at 10.4%.
The next 7kms are pretty steady around 6-7%, before the last 300m kick up to the line at 11.4%, a nasty sting in the tail after what should be a fast and furious stage.
Break or not? It's possible - I give it about a 20% chance of making it. It all depends on who is in it and how the GC men want to race it. I thought beforehand that the GC men might rip it up on the Madeleine and that it would be a wild stage that could possibly see the break doomed.
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Now though, with Froome in the leader's jersey, the strongest rider in the race and the strongest team in the race don't have to do anything early in the race, other than set a steady tempo, it's unlikely we will see Contador attack from a long way out, like on the Madeleine. With only 37" seperating the top 4, it's still all to play for though and it mat be that we see them wait until the final climb to Meribel to go at each other - a good strong attack could still take 30" and with a 10" time bonus at the finish, a 20" win by Contador could put him in the lead.
But looking at today's stage, it doesn't look like Contador has any answers to Porte, let alone Froome. He couldn't respond to Froome's attack and he slipped further and further away in the last 2kms, losing 21" by the finish. Froome doesnt' have to do anything other than sit in the wheels of his team-mates or behind Tinkoff and BMC who might look to stretch things throughout the stage, but if Froome wants to attack again near the finish, then I think he will, and not many will be able to stop him..
But if the opposition are unable to put enough pressure on, then the break would have a chance - Contador might have to wait for the last climb, although he'll probably need the bonus seconds, Froome will be happy to wait to the last climb. Some candidates for the break - Bart de Clercq at 66/1, he was in a break earlier in the race that didn't make it, might try again. Liliane Calmejane at 250/1, Emanuel Buchmann at 125/1 and Igor Anton at 80/1 are others that might go up the road, but it's hard to pick any with confidence to finish the job on such a hard stage.
If it does come to a GC battle for the stage win, I think it's hard to look past Froome again, and I was surprised to see him at 4/1, I honestly thought he'd be 2/1 or shorter. The only danger would be that with a shallower final climb than we had today, some more might be able to hang in there and someone might have a punchier finish than him in the last 1300m. I thought Richie would attack him late in the stage, but he instead rode with him and in the front and never made a move. If Froome keeps the pressure on tomorrow, Richie may be the only one able to stay with him again, and if so, we could see the same outcome to the stage.
Adam Yates was caught out too by the Froome whirlwind, but finished the stage really strongly, to ride up to Martin and Contador and beat them both to 3rd place. He seems to be coming in to good form and this finish with it's steadier, easier gradients could well see him close to the front again. The 20/1 could see some each-way reward again.
Dan Martin was actually looking really good today i thought and it looked like he was just biding his time to ride away off the front, but like the others, was left behind briefly and had to chase hard to try to close the gap again. This slightly steadier finish might suit him better and if it comes to the last 400 and he's still in the hunt he has a chance. But I avoided him today, despite hoping he would win, he finished more or less where I expected him to, and I think 3rd to 6th might be where he'll finish again.
Mikel Landa was disappointing to me today, he attacked and got a small lead, but looked to be under a lot of pressure and never really got very far. It could have been a plan to make the others chase before Froome attacked, and if so, it worked. They might try the same thing tomorrow, or they might reel in all the help they have to secure the win for Froome. Either way, not interested. Neither am I interested in Aru or Pinot after today, but with Aru, you never know how he'll be tomorrow, despite struggling today.
Romain Bardet rode well today, finishing well and he was full of confidence and very pleased with his ride after the stage. He could well attack on the Montee des Frasses and shoot down the descent before trying to hold them off on the climb to Meribel. Louis Meintjes and Pierre Rolland were two surprises in the top 10 today, I don't know if Rolland will be up there again tomorrow, but he must be feeling really good to finish where he did. Meintjes is going well too but can you see him beating Frome or Porte tomorrow? Me neither..
Valerio Conte and Diego Rosa continue to ride well and both now sit in the top 20, Rosa in 7th place. Rosa is Astana's best man now on GC and the team should get behind him tomorrow and work hard to set him up, but it's hard to see him beating the top guys unless he gets away and they all start playing cat and mouse.
It looks all over bar the shouting in the GC you'd think, it's unlikely Froome will let it slip now, but these short stages in week-long races can bring all sorts of wild racing and unexpected results. I can see him really looking to stamp his authority in this race and put the fear in his rivals ahead of the TDF. When he starts the legs spinning again tomorrow, maybe only Porte and maybe Martin, Yates, Contador and Bardet can stay near him, but he should be too good. Porte could chase him home but he's too short to take a chance on each-way now.
I am unable to do a preview for the Tour de Suisse this week, but I like Ion Izagirre at 8/1, he's in great form and will like a tough, hilly, wet week. Also like Rui Costa at 8/1 - likes it is Switzerland and goes well in the wet..
Cancellara should take the TT, looks tailor-made for him. Matthews should go well too, but judging by how well Dowsett is going in TTs at the moment he's worth a shot at 40/1 ew. Cancellara and Froome double pays 10/1..
Recommendations:
2pts win on Chris Froome at 4/1
0.3pts each-way on Adam Yates at 20/1 with Bet365
0.2pts each-way on Bart de Clercq at 66/1 with Bet365
TOUR DE SUISSE
3pts on Cancellara at 11/10 with PP
0.3pts ew on Dowsett at 40/1 with PP
1pt on the Froome/Cancellara double at 10/1
1pt ew on Ion Izagirre to win the Tour de Suisse at 8/1
1pt ew on Rui Costa to win the Tour de Suisse at 8/1
Matchbets:
1pt on Yates to beat Contador at 9/4 with Bet365
Martin to beat Rodriguez and Bardet to beat Mollema - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Col de La Madeleine
Stage 7
Stage 7 - Le Pont de Claix to Superdevoluy
Sunday June 12th, 151km
A chaotic and frantic stage of the Dauphiné today, most of the action going unseen as the broadcasters decided to show only the last 35kms, when the break of the day that included Pinot and Bardet had almost 3 minutes lead, and it was enough to see the duo go to the finish together to fight it out.. Bardet had traded to something like 4/6 in play, but Pinot did look strong, reeled in Bardet pretty easily each time he attacked, and in the sprint was just too good for the AG2R man.
Behind, the other GC men finally started chasing hard as they could see Bardet slipping in to the Maillot Jaune, and they did enough at the finish to prevent that happening. Martin attacked hard this time and only Froome could go with him this time, an impressive surge from Martin, even dropping Froome on the run-in by 3". Contador had no answer again, but this time, neither did Porte, but he did just enough to hold on to his 2nd place, he sits on the same time as Bardet, 21" back from Froome.
Yates was there but was unable to just finish ahead of Contador for us, he finished just 2" behind him. With Cancellara winning in Switzerland though and the matchbet double coming in, we eeked out a tiny profit on the day. It was a good start too for Ion Izagirre in the TT, he is the top-placed GC rider starting stage 2. Not such a great time from Costa though, finishing 38" down, but Van Garderen is only 10" ahead of him. Thomas is just 6" behind Izagirre though, a good start from the Welshman.
And on to stage 7 then, with it still really all to play for - as I said last night, and as we saw today, anything could still happen in this race, and 30" is a small time gap to make up if you're on a really good day.
Its another lumpy stage with no fewer than six categorised climbs in the short 151km stage to finish the race. None of the climbs are overly difficult, but we've seen before in the Criterium that anything can happen on the final stage. It should be all action from out of the gate, as they head south-west from Le Pont de Claix and start climbing straight away, up the Cat 2 climb of the Cote de Monteynard which tops out after just 13kms.
They keep heading south-east for another 80kms, passing over two Cat 2 climbs and a lot of other uncategorised bumps along the way. With 92kms gone they tackle the Cat 1 Cote de Moissiere, which is a tough 8.2% for 8.3kms, and after descending off it they almost double back on themselves and start heading north-west again.
There are two more climbs to get over in the last 20kms, with first the Col du Noyer, a tough 7.5kms at 8.4%, with the last 3kms being particularly steep, hitting gradients of 11-13%. This is followed by the final climb of the race up to Superdévoluy, it's a short and easy one at just 3.8kms at an average of just 5.9%. It looks a day for the breakaway riders, it's a very lumpy and tricky stage to be trying to control for 150kms and it is likely that we will see the GC favourites keep it together for the last 60kms, or possibly even for the last 20kms with the double ascension of the Noyer and the Superdevoluy.
GC riders first, PP have priced up the stage like it still will be the GC men battling it out, and have made Dan Martin favourite. I can see why he would be made favourite following today's stage, he looked really good at the finish, not even Froome could stay with him at the line. The finish will suit him perfectly, it has a similar gradient to today's finish and he was just too good for all the rest, if the break hadn't been up the road he'd have won the stage.
I've held off on backing him all week, but was impressed by him today, that sort of final climb often has seen him struggle before. But the way he attacked with 500m to go, and kept going all the way to the line, moving away from Froome in the last 100m was very impressive. If the break hasn't won the stage, I fancy Martin to finish the race in style with a win - a win that would also see him secure a podium spot - he's just 9" off Porte and Bardet in 2nd/3rd place.. If he gets a gap of 20"+, he wins the race.. Pity he's just 5/1, it's not a great price on him, but maybe you might get a better price inplay if a break has a decent lead.
Froome of course is the big danger, but he looked held today, he was not able to attack himself to finish off all the hard work from Henao, Landa and Poels, it took Martin's attack before he finally upped his pace. Porte disappointed today, after such a promsing stage the day before, he was one of the last of the leading group to finish and lost 17" to Martin, almost losing his 2nd place to Bardet. He is in danger now too of possibly losing his podium spot, so he needs to pull off a decent ride on this final stage. Maybe he'll be better on this shorter final climb, but the Noyer is a pretty hard climb just before it.
Louis Meintjes continues to impress, finishing ahead of Contador, as does Rosa who was just behind. Alaphilippe continues to climb exceedingly well, but he was severely on the limit today and I think he might struggle at the top of the Noyer. Bardet and Pinot had a particularly hard day today and it will be hard to see them going in to the red twice in two days with the Tour so close, Bardet might just look to consolidate his podium position, if he just stays with the GC men and finishes close enough to Martin (unless Martin wins the stage), then he will take a podium spot.
As for the break? Lots of riders are tired and will just want to get through this last stage and on to thinking about the TDF or their next races. Alexis Vuillermoz was one I was thinking might get a chance, but with Bardet now in a podium spot, he might be asked to work. Serge Pauwels was one I was tempted to pick for today, and he got in the break, but he faded towards the end and dropped away. Jurgen Van Den Broeck did a great ride today, being up the road in the break and was only passed in the last 3kms, eventually finishing 17th. He was pleased with his ride but said he felt it at the end from riding too much in the big ring.. he might try again tomorrow and might do a little better, at 100/1, he's worth a small bet.
Tomorrow might also see AG2R, Tinkoff and BMC pushing it at the front, so Sky might have a lot of support and maybe Landa will try something on the Noyer in order to make the others chase him, the 66/1 is tempting, but I'm not sure he has the legs. Stef Clement finished 20th today after being in the break, he could try again, while further down the page today, Daniel Moreno, Marc Soler and Dayer Quintana could try for Movistar.
Soler was in the early break today, but was dropped early, Quintana attacked several times with Contador and Aru, whereas Daniel Moreno just seemed to be taking it easy, either as he doesn't have the legs, or he was saving himself for this final stage, a finish that might suit him pretty well.. He lost over 15 minutes today so is no danger now and could get a chance to attack. Mikael Cherel was on the attack today too and could try again tomorrow too.
Overall though, I think Froome will hang on to his lead, but the battle for 2nd and 3rd is really on and any one of Porte, Bardet, Martin or Contador could still take a podium spot. I like Martin's chances for tomorrow though and got 6/1 on Betfair tonight, which you might be able to get too, but will scatter a number of longshots for a possible breakaway winner.
And don't forget to sign up for my Tour de France subscription service, I'll be doing some cool giveaways and offers with some partners during the tour, exclusively for subscribers - watch this space for more info in the coming weeks!
Recommendations:
2pts win on Dan Martin at 6/1 on Betfair
0.2pts win on Daniel Moreno at 80/1 with Bet365
0.2pts win on Mikael Cherel at 100/1 with PP
0.2pts win on Jurgen Van Den Broeck at 100/1 with PP
Matchbets:
Froome to beat Contador, Martin to beat Alaphilippe, Porte to beat Pinot - 4pts on the treble at 11/8 with Bet365
Navarro to beat Rolland - 1pt at 2/1 with Bet365
Route Map
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Col de Moissiere
