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- Published on Friday, 03 June 2016 23:33
Critérium du Dauphiné
June 5th to June 12th
The Critérium du Dauphiné starts on Sunday the 5th of June with a very short, but nasty 4km prologue from the ski station at Les Gets. The race sees most of the key contenders for the Tour De France lining up to test each other ahead of the Grand Boucle, which starts in a month's time in Mont St Michel in Northern France.
Chris Froome is back to defend his title, and is going for his third win in the race in four years. He is supported by a strong Sky team which includes Sergio Henao, back after his hiatus following the investigation in to his biological pasport issues, and Mikel Landa, making a swift return to racing following his abandonment in the Giro.
He will face strong opposition though from Alberto Contador, who will be looking to lay down a marker ahead of their clash in the Tour in a month's time. In the four stage races he has entered this year he has finished 4th (Algarve), 2nd (Paris Nice), 2nd (Catalunya) and 1st (Pais Vasco). Contador comfortably beat Froome when they clashed at the Volta a Catalunya earlier this season and while Contador has been notching top GC places, Froome was finishing in 39th place in Romandie, although he did pulled off a stunning solo ride on stage 4 to salvage something from the race.
They are also joined by the likes of Fabio Aru, making his debut in the race but has not seen since DNF'ing in Pais Vasco and Amstel Gold Race in mid April, home favourites Romain Bardet and Thibaut Pinot and others like Richie Porte, Dan Martin, Bauke Mollema, Pierre Rolland and Julian Alaphilippe.
The eight stages of the CDD include an opening uphill TT which will give us a quick indication as to who has good climbing legs, and they will need them as there is plenty of climbing to be done over the rest of the race. There are three mountain-top finishes, two, possibly three days for the sprinters and a trio of hard stages in the mountains, as you'd expect from the Dauphiné.
The sprint stages have attracted the likes of Alexander Kristoff, John Degenkolb, Sam Bennett and Nacer Bouhanni and they will fight it out on stages 1 and 4, possibly on stages 2 and 3 also, if they can hang in over the lumpy terrain that preceeds the finish.
The Critérium was first run in 1947, when, like so many other races, a local newspaper, the Dauphiné Libéré organised a stage race in the Alps just before the Tour and it quickly became popular as a preparation race for the Tour. It maintained it's independence until 2010, when the organisers eventually reached out to the ASO as a result of financial difficulties.
Since the ASO took over it has extended its ties with the TDF even more and shortened the name to the Critérium du Dauphiné, but continues to be an important TDF build-up. Even more than ever in fact with the ASO adding stages over the last five years that were either exact replica's of stages in the TDF like this year's stage 5 to Pra-Loup, or stages that contained some of the climbs like the climb of the Lacets de Montvernier on stage 8 this year.
Despite it's association with the TDF, there aren't many riders who do the double, there is the dilemma of wanting to win the race, but also not being 100% tuned up yet or going too deep a few weeks before the big one. In recent years Wiggins (2012) and Froome (2013 & 2015) did it, but before that you have Armstrong in 2002 and 2003 and Indurain in 1995 in the modern era who have pulled it off.
It still remains an important part of rider's calendars, and seems to be becoming more important with every year than the Tour de Suisse, which this year really has only attracted second division GC men. The field this year should ensure an exciting and revealing race and should be packed with action and drama right up to the final climb on the final day to Superdévoluy.
2015 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Froome | Team Sky | 30h 59min 02s |
| 2 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC | at 10s |
| 3 | Rui Costa | Lampre-Merida | at 1' 16s |
The Route
It's a typical Criterium Du Dauphiné route, with the big change from last year being that the team time trial has been removed and instead they have added a 3.9km uphill TT on the opening day. Stage 1 starts out lumpy but should in a bunch sprint, but stage 2 should see the first GC battle of the race with the summit finish to Chalmazal.
Stage 3 is a tough stage that has a Cat 2 climb that hits 8% in the last 20kms, so we should probably see most of the sprinters getting dropped, but it could still be a reduced sprint of some sort. Stage 4 will be a bunch sprint probably but has an uphill drag to the line which will suit some sprinters, but not others. Stage 5 sees things get a lot more serious, with seven categorised climbs, including the summit finish to Vaujany.
Stage 6 is going to be a hugely important one in deciding the winner of the race, with the Col de Champ-Laurent, Col du Grand Cucheron, Col de la Madeleine, Montée des Frasses and the final 1st category ascent to Meribel, all squeezed into 141 kilometres of racing. Stage 7 is one last chance to shake up the GC, with a hard stage that includes a Cat 4, two Cat 3s, two Cat 2s and a Cat 1 climb.
It's a race definitely suited to the strong climbers and it's no wonder that Froome and Contador are strong favourites, it looks like it will probably be between the two of them and should be a fantastic battle.
Prologue
Les Gets to Les Gets
Sunday, June 5th, 3.9kms
This is going to be a fascinating start to the race, a 3.9km Prologue sounds easy right? Well, not when it averages a 9.7% gradient, with the last 1500m or so averaging around 15%! This is going to be a serious test of the climbers on the very first day - this is a difficult discipline that will only suit a small number of the riders here. Normally, strong sprinters can do well in a short prologue like this, pushing out big watts for a short spell, but this is a different matter entirely, only the strongest and lightest climbers will excel on this hill.
It starts out easy enough, averaging 6.1%, but it soon gets steep and stays steep as it winds through no fewer than 11 hairpins in less than 4kms. There is a pretty bad forecast though for Sunday, with rain likely all day, with some thunderstorms possible from around 1pm onwards. As the last rider is expected to finish at 1.47pm local time, this could have an impact on the later starters so it will be worth looking closely at starting times and who of the favourites go early or late.
Stage Analysis and Picks
Alberto Contador or Chris Froome? The betting seems to think it's probably going to be one of the two of them - Contador is the favourite at 9/4, Froome is 4/1. Contador was 10/3 when betting opened and has been supported in to 9/4 now. Contador is rightly favourite for the stage, he's a strong climber, a strong time triallist and can pull it together well in a hill TT like this. In the TT in the Pais Vasco he smashed it up the climb, dancing on the pedals in his unique style. He beat Quintana by 5" and Thibaut Pinot, who was supposedly after improving his TTing by 1'09". I think he will be very hard to beat here too and the 9/4 looks like a bet.
Froome won't be far behind of course, he will fly up this climb too, but I am just a little worried he might be a little ring rusty and might build himself in to the race rather than come flying out of the traps. Joaquim Rodriguez is another who could go well here too - remember how well he did in the TT at the Pais Vasco in 2014.. on the steep slopes up to Aia he beat all bar Tom Dumoulin, only losing to him by 5", and beating Quintana by 26". He has not been seen racing though since Liege-Bastogne-Liege, six weeks ago, so it's hard to know how he'll go.
Richie Porte will be one to watch as well though - killer of the hill TT in Paris-Nice, a decent time triallist and a decent climber, he could fly up this climb. Col d'Eze is a very different type of climb to this one though, it's not as steep and twice as long, but I think Porte will be able to get the power down and keep a very steady rhythym up this climb.
Thibaut Pinot is just 12/1, I am not interested in that, he didn't sound confident himself ahead of it so I'm not backing him. Sergio Henao is just back from his ban, how hard has he been training in the mean-time? Hard to know, but I'm not going to have money on him to find out. I think he will use this race as good race training and may test himself on some of the later climbs in support of Froome, but I can't see him springing a surprise here.
Dan Martin looks big at 20/1, but although he's an excellent climber on gradients like this, he's a pretty poor TTer, so I think he might have to settle for 5th to 10th. Julian Alaphilippe was flying in the Tour of California, including some excellent TT'ing and excellent climbing to secure overall victory and a stage win - can he pull it together for this sort of explosion of pure power? I think he will go very well but may not podium. Fabio Aru - who knows what sort of ride this guy will pull off, with Astana you can never be sure, but he's a pretty rubbish TT'er so he may not do as well as you'd think given his climbing abilities.
Romain Bardet, Jerome Coppel, Dayer Quintana, Dario Cataldo, Luis Leon Sanchez could all go well too, Sanchez at 66/1 might be a good longshot, Jurgen Van Den Broeck at 100/1 is another that could go well here too, Diego Rosa at 200/1 and Mikael Cherel at 400/1. But I think this is a perfect opportunity for Contador to put one over on Froome and take a small, early lead in to the first stage.
05/06, 01:00am - update - I thought a bit more about some other outsiders and one that I liked was Alexis Vuillermoz at 40/1. Vuillermoz is a very punchy rider and does well on steep climbs like this, and in the 10.7km TT in the Etoile de Besseges in 2014 he finished 11th, that finished with a steep last 2.5kms, parts of which hit over 15%. He is in the best shape of his career too and he could possibly pull off a surprise here.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Alberto Contador at 9/4 with PP
0.3pts win on Alexis Vuillermoz at 40/1 with Skybet
Matchbets
Rodriguez to beat Henao - 3pts at 4/6 with PP
Route Map
Profile
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Cluses to Saint Vulbas
Monday June 6th, 186km
A good start then with a 6pt profit from today's stage, it all worked out more or less as I expected - Contador was simply too good for them, a sensational performance from the Spaniard. Froome set the standard as expected, and his time looked like it might be good enough to win as rider after rider finished a long way off his time. Pinot was as disappointing as I expected, 12/1 was a shocking price for him.
Richie Porte almost beat him, it was a superb performance by Dickie Doors, one that puts him right in the mix with time bonuses available on some of these uphill finishes. He's been slashed from 16/1 to 5/1, Contador is now the 7/4 favourite (as short as 5/4) with Froome more or less the same price he started at around 3/1.
Surprise package of the day though seems to be Dan Martin, but should we really be surprised one of the best climbers in the world finished 4th?! I thought he'd do well, I said 5th to 10th, I was just out! But he fairly flew up the climb and it puts him right in the mix too. Losers of the day were Pinot (52" down already), Aru (1'08" down already) and Rodriguez (1'02" down).
On to stage 1 then, a zig-zaggy run for 186kms from Cluses to Saint Vulbas, which starts out quite lumpy with three Cat 4 climbs in the first 75kms, but they're nothing too hard and shouldn't really cause any problems. We should see a break go early on and probably build a big lead, but with one of the few sprint opportunities available at the end of the stage, it's likely we'll see the sprinter's teams reel them in and set up a sprint finish.
There's not a huge amount of sprinters here though to focus on, but we still have some of the peloton's top sprinters here to battle it out. Alexander Kristoff and Nacer Bouhanni are more or less joint favourites around 9/4 and both have their pros and cons about their chances. Nacer Bouhanni has quite a few 1s in his results this year, but to be fair, the wins were almost all against poor opposition. When he came up against better opposition, like in Dunkirk or Paris-Nice, he was beaten nearly every time. On paper he is the fastest sprinter in the race, and he has a big chance of course, the 7/4 with Ladbrokes is very short, the 9/4 with PP is a bit better.
Alexander Kristoff of course is a super-powerful sprinter, and after a break after Paris-Roubaix, he returned with a win in Frankfurt, beating Richeze and Bennett. He then took two thirds in California and a stage win, but one of those 3rds was effectively a 'win' as he won the sprint behind Ben King and Evan Huffman. He looks to be in great shape again and will go close to winning this.
As mentioned above, 3rd behind Kristoff in Frankfurt was Sam Bennett, and he went in to the Tour of Belgium in good form and with high hopes of some good results, but a nasty crash on stage 2 took him down and badly bashed him up. He really felt the effects of it in the following day, and it was only a week ago so it's hard to know if he's recovered fully, and that's enough to put me off backing him for now, I'll watch and see how he goes for later in the race - he finished dead last in the TT today, so either he was in ultimate energy saving mode for tomorrow, or is still struggling.
Moreno Hofland is another second division sprinter who could take advantage of the low-quality field of sprinters here this week to try to get a rare victory. The best result he's had this year though is a 2nd place in the Tour of Oman and when up against the top sprinters in the Giro he started well with a 4th in stage 2, but nothing more really after that.
Nicolo Bonifazio is another who rarely visits the winners podium, but he's come very close this year on a number of occassions. 3rd in the Cadel Evans race and 2nd in stages in the Herald Sun Tour, Paris-Nice and Tour de Romandie, on that occassion, just behind Kittel. He wasn't able to get near the winners of the sprint stages in California though, and even Degenkolb beat him in the last stage. His team-mate Edward Thuens has a chance as well too though, it will be interesting to see who gets the nod to go for the stage tomorrow. They are pretty similar in price so it looks like it's not clear at all who will be going for it, so I am not going to play the guessing games as to who it will be.
Speaking of John Degenkolb, he continues to recover from his pre-season crash and has now got 1,500kms under his belt since starting his season in Frankfurt and California. As California went on he got more and more in to it and landed an 8th and a 5th place in the last two sprints. He'd prefer a tougher finish than this one though I think and on a flat out finish I don't think he'll be beating Bouhanni or Kristoff.
Samuel Dumoulin is worth a mention I think as he is in superb form at the moment, having won two races in a row in France last week. The little pocket rocket can surf wheels well and he could nip up for a place - at 33/1 he offers a small bit of value.
The race should probably come down to the sprint trains, and it looks like it will be cracking battle between Katusha and Cofidis, with Haller, Morkov and Guarnieri a strong trio to lead out Kristoff, and Soupe, Bozic and Vanbilsen a good trio for Bouhanni. I think that Katusha will bully Cofidis out of it in the finale, Kristoff will get a great lead-out, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Bouhanni nip out from behind him in the last 100m and take the win.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Nacer Bouhanni at 9/4 with Paddy Power
0.3pts each-way on Samuel Dumoulin at 33/1 with various
Matchbets
Samuel Dumoulin to beat Boasson Hagen - 2pts at 6/5 with PP
Hofland to beat Bennett - 2pts at 11/8 with Bet365
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Crêches-sur-Saône to Chalmazel - Jeansagnière
Tuesday June 7th, 168km
Two winners in a row then with Bouhanni battling and butting his way to victory in a proper old-fashioned crazy sprint. There were shoulders, head-butts and barges in the last few kilometres, with Katusha and Cofidis leaning in to each other so much at times they were almost riding each others bikes. Lots of riders have taken to twitter to complain about the lack of care and the generally dangerous behaviour in the sprint, and they may have a point, it did cross the line at times, but it is pretty obvious that Bouhanni is not well liked in the peloton, such was the animosity with which his win was greeted.
Sam Bennett looked the winner with 50m to go after a superb sprint from far out, he was the first to go, but got passed by both Bouhanni and Debusschere on the line. Still good signs that he has recovered well from his crash. Kristoff was outside the top 10, he started his sprint, but looked laboured and Bennett almost clipped him when he came past, and Bouhanni too so he twice had to snatch up his sprint in about 10m and that was that. Dumoulin finished 15th, just behind the wave of riders who finished together at the front. So it two out of two with the main picks, but ended up down 0.1pts as the two matchbets lost!
After a flatish stage for the sprinters, it's back to a GC stage with the uphill finish to Chalmazel. They start in Creches sur Saone and after just 5kms they start on the first of three similar climbs that come one after the other over the next 45kms. The Col de Durbize is a Cat 3 climb, then the uncategorised Che Nelette, followed by the Cat 2 Col de la Croix Nicelle. By the time they get over that final climb of the trio, there's still well over 100kms to go and it's likely that the break of the day will be after building up a decent lead - it should contain a number of strong rouleurs and climbers, you will need to be able to climb to get away in that opening 50kms, it's sure to be super-fast.
The next 90kms are pretty rolling as they continue to head south-west and after 145kms the road starts to rise again as they tackle the double ascension of the Cat 2 Cote de Saint George en Couzan, followed shortly after by the final climb to the finish at Chalmazel. The first part is 8.5kms at an average of 4.9%, just a warm up for the final climb to the summit. After going over the top they roll along a bit of a plateau for around 8kms before hitting the final rise to the finish. The climb to Chalmazel is pretty easy though, averaging only 3.7% over 6.8kms, but it even hits a flat part for 2kms before it kicks up for the final kilometre at 6.8% and then a 100m flat run to the line.
Even though it's a double final climb, it's not really very difficult, the first part is a very steady 5% and the second part is also pretty steady around 5% for only 3kms before the final kick up to the line for a kilometre. It may mean that we see a lot more riders in contention for the finish here than you would get on a typical summit finish.
Full stage preview can be found here.
Route Map
Profile
Chalmazel
Overall Contenders
This should be an interesting race, right from the very start - the TT will be fascinating and it will be eyeballs-out for the main contenders for 4kms so as not to lose any time early on and be on the back foot. I think Contador will probably win the TT, meaning he will be in the leader's jersey, and with a sprinters stage on stage 1 it should be that we see the first real challenge to his jersey on the uphill finish on stage 2 to Chalmazel. It may be that a break gets away on stage 3, and if someone takes over the leader's jersey by a small margin I'm sure he won't mind too much to take the pressure off for a day or two.
The race is going to be decided though on the final three hilly stages, with stage six a Saturday afternoon treat with the tough ascents of the Col de La Madeleine followed by the the climb to the finish in Meribel.
Chris Froome is favourite, but has been really hit and miss this season so far. He has only raced 19 days this year and only 2,651kms - an incredibly small amount of racing - Alexander Kristoff for example has raced nearly 3,000kms more this year. Winer of the Herald Sun Tour, he then disappointed in the Vuelta a Catalunya, finishing down in 8th place, finishing 4th in the TT behind Pinot, Dumoulin and Jungels. He has obviously been training lots, preparing for the TDF, but like always with prep races like this it's hard to know if he is going to be going flat out for the win or just looking to prepare well and get some good hard days under his belt.
He always tends to go well and try hard in the Dauphiné though and is the defending champion. His GC result in Romandie was masked by a mechanical which took him out of contention, but he came back in style with a stunning solo win in stage 4, holding off a pack that included Quintana, Zakarin and Pinot to win by 4". He might start quietly, but I think he will be going all out in the last three stages to win here and I think Saturday's stage 6 to Meribel will be the day that Sky and Froome will make their mark, thinning out the peloton on the Madeleine and then pushing hard on the Meribel before Froome attacks. He may attack as early as 8kms out on the steep 10% part, but he might hold for the last 3kms, it depends on how much time he will need to pull back.
I think he is a strong favourite for the win and he'll be looking to lay down a marker again ahead of the TDF, especially to put Contador back in his place. Sky have a strong team here and should be able to look after him pretty well, but needs to stay out of trouble and avoid bad luck again.
Alberto Contador is showing no signs of easing up in what is supposed to be his final season (unlikely I think!) with podium places on every stage race he has started this season, including a win in Catalunya. He is clearly in great form and looking forward to this race, and he should start well in the TT. He has never won the Dauphiné though which is suprising. He has skipped the Giro this year to concentrate on the Tour so his prep should have been focused on the Dauphiné too so he should be in great shape and ready to carry on his fine start to the season - he too will be looking to lay down a marker and make a statement against Froome before the Tour.
Thibaut Pinot - what do we make of his chances here? The hype is building with Pinot, and it would have been interesting to see him in a flat TT against the top two, but I am not sure we'll learn a great deal from the hill TT with regards to his form vis-a-vis Froome and Bertie. He has started the season really well too - in the six stage races he has started this year he has not finished lower than 5th place, including a win in the Criterium International. Fourth in Pais Vasco, but 1'13" behind Contador, he lost that time on the TT, where Contador beat him by 1'09". He will need to do a lot better in this TT if he is not to blow his chances on the very first day.
An impressive TT stage win and 2nd place overall in Romandie was a very positive result, he beat Froome and Dumoulin in that TT and will take great heart from that result. Winner of a stage of the TDF to Alpe d'Huez last year, he showed he can win on big climbs on big days, and he will like some of these mountain stages. But can he leave Contador and Froome behind on the climbs here? Unlikely, but he it might depend on whether they watch each other too much and he is let slip away, a little like how Talansky took advantage of their stand-off in 2014.
Fabio Aru - who knows what sort of form he will bring to this race, but with Nibali winning in the Giro, the pressure is now on Aru to deliver in the Tour, as his season is now focused around that. We haven't seen much of him this season (23 days racing only) and what we have seen of him hasn't been very impressive, his best result being a 2nd place behind Contador on a stage in the Algarve, albeit 20" behind him. He has finished on the podium twice in the Giro and has won the Vuelta of course last year, but he has yet to beat Froome, Contador and Quintana on the big stages, and I can't see him toppling Froome or Contador here either.
Richie Porte I think again is a dark horse for this race, like he often is for races like this. He should go well in the opening TT, he is light and fast uphill and has always done well in the TT up Col d'Eze in Paris-Nice. He will like some of these longer climbs too later in the race and he can sit in and shadow the likes of Froome, Contador and Pinot and maybe pounce late on some of these finishes. He was 2nd in the TDU earlier in the year, 3rd in Paris-Nice and 4th in Catalunya, but got sick on stage 2 of Romandie so we never really got to see him against his former team-mate Froome. He has always done well in one-week races, while struggling in the longer stage races, but with Van Garderen going to the Tour de Suisse probably as their TDF leader, Porte will need to impress so he doesn't end up as TVG's domestique in France. At 16/1 with PP he was worth an e/w bet, he is half that price with most of the others.
Mikel Landa - what can we expect from him following his withdrawal due to illness from the Giro? He would have been in top shape ahead of a tilt at the Giro, will he have held his form through his illness? He will be interesting to watch on the TT, he will be interesting to watch should anything happen to Froome, but unless something happens to Froome I don't think he'll be allowed to go attacking, unless they try the old attack-and-bridge tactic with him and Froome some day on one of the longer climbs, it will be up to the other teams to chase him hard.
Joaquim Rodriguez - Can go well on some stages, could go well in the TT, could attack on the uphill finishes to stages 2 and 7 and a stage win would not be out of the question on these finishes. I don't think he'll be able to stay with Contador and Froome though when they go full gas and we might see him in a 5th to 10th place finish.
Dan Martin - longer climbs are his achilles heel, he struggles to match the likes of Froome and Contador when the pace is relentessly high and then lifted even further by the top climbers. He's no bad climber himself of course, but he does better when he has attacked out solo on his own and is able to ride at his own pace. He might be stage hunting and form hunting ahead of the TDF, we haven't seen him since his disappointing 47th in Liege-Bastogne-Liege six weeks ago.
Romain Bardet is the second French hope and he too could be one to mix things up with the favourites here - he will probably go on the attack a number of times and a stage win is not out of the question. He has won a stage here in the past of course and stage 7 looks a possible one for him, to attack at the top of the Col du Noyer, charge down the descent and try to hold them off on the final climb up to Superdevoluy. I think he too will be left behind by the likes of Froome though on the big climbs as they are a level higher than Bardet.
Daniel Moreno, Woet Poels, Sergio Henao, Julian Alaphilippe - all could go well too, there could be stage wins amongst them, but I can't see them winning, or even podiuming here. It will be interesting to see how Henao rides on his first race back after suspension, but it could be that he keeps a relatively low profile and helps Froome as much as he can.
It's not a race I am willing to get heavily stuck in to from the start, there are just so many question marks about so many of the contenders and we will only really probably see who is in top form or not after stage 2's uphill finish. I think Froome, if he is anywhere near the form he needs to have to win the TDF then he should win this again this year. The course looks good for him and he should stamp his mark over the final weekend and I think he is the likely winner of Saturday's Queen stage to Mirabel, where he could gain enough time to win the race overall.
Contador is likely to chase him home, and there is a scrap on for 3rd place - Porte at 16/1 is a good price to take a 3rd spot, or more if things go his way, Thinaut Pinot is a likely top 5 finisher, as is Aru, but I'm not willing to take a chance on them at the prices they are.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Chris Froome at 9/4 with various
0.5pts each-way on Richie Porte at 16/1 with PP
Overall Matchbets:
To come.. nothing appeals to me in the PP odds, Pinot should beat Bardet and Alaphilippe should beat Gallopin, but the double pays just 7/10, I'm not all that keen on it at that price.
