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Published on Friday, 12 April 2019 16:35

Paris-Roubaix 2019

Sunday 14th April, 257kms

What a race we were treated to last year, and it almost turned out to be the second massive-price winner in three years, as 500/1 outsider Silvan Dillier danced along the cobbles, the only one able to stay with a rampaging Peter Sagan. 

But there was to be no fairy-tale ending this time, unlike Hayman in 2016, as Sagan easily outsprinted him to take his first Paris-Roubaix. Nikki Terpstra continued his fine run of form, finishing on his own 57" back in 3rd, with Van Avermaet, Stuyven and Vanmarcke a further 37" back. 

It was a bizarre way that Sagan got away from his rivals, he just rolled off the front of a strong group of favourites with 54.4kms to go, no one wanted to chase him, and suddenly he was gone. Van Avermaet was at the front, he looked around to see who would go after Sagan, and as no one did, he sat up too. (below)

He soon caught up with the break of the day, of which only Dillier had the strength left to stay with him and they worked very well together to keep the chasers at bay. Sagan even had time during the race to tighten his own handlebars with an Alan key, he was that much in control and at ease all day long. It was the performance I thought he'd pull off in Flanders, unfortunately it was a week late!

Speaking of Flanders, it was one hell of a race we were treated to last Sunday, as the prognosis of "one of the most open Flanders I can remember in a long time" proved very accurate indeed.. It was a race that was so open, with so many riders on a similar level, that none of the key players could get away from each other. 

It was a ballsy move from a 50/1 'outsider' Alberto Bettiol on the Kwaremont that ended up winning the race, as the others all looked to each other to take up the chase, and none of them were willing. Most surprising for most I think was the performance of Deceuninck. Gilbert never really featured as I expected, Stybar was dead coming out of Ronse with still the Kwaremont and Paterberg to go. Lampaert, Jungels and Asgreen were all in the leading group, but made no coordinated effort whatsoever to reel in Bettiol. 

Alejandro Valverde had ridden a brilliant race all day, but wouldn't take a pull as usual, Van Avermaet tried to drive it along and looked one of the strongest out on the road, but eventually he decided too that it was "not my job to drag all these guys to the line for them to beat me".

Peter Sagan was cooked a long way from home and did well to stay with the leading group and Kristoff and Matthews were happy to just sit in thinking they would be just towed to the line for the sprint. Kristoff sprinted well again to take 3rd, Matthews looked shattered and started his sprint in a terrible position, he finished pretty fast but could only manage 5th. 

And what about that ride from Van Der Poel?? Bloody hell, it had everything. Whacked a kerb at around 40kmph, damaged his wheel, it collapsed under him and he smashed in to the ground. Shoulder held in that grimace that suggests 'collarbone', he gets up and gingerly starts to ride through the cars.. but he not only got back on, he went straight to the front and played a big role in the rest of the race, even managing to do a kerb slide along the way too.

To sprint to 4th at the end of the day was phenomenal, and suggests he could well be the king of Flanders for years to come. Hope some of you took the 7/1 with Skybet paying 4 places, you'd have got something back there at least.

But credit where it is due, EF were superb on Sunday. Vanmarcke was very active, starting little attacks, making guys chase, then he and Langeveld buried themselves to get Bettiol in to a position where he could attack from the front on the Kwaremont. Vanmarcke sat up and Bettiol was gone. Then Langeveld proceeded to block all attempts at organising a chase, popping up in second wheel repeatedly and just easing off the gas when put on the front. 

As for Bettiol.. Well, he was 50/1 for a reason, he had never won a race in his career before, let alone a Classic or a Monument! It's wrong though to say that the warning signs weren't there over the last month or so, he had been riding extremely well, including 4th in the E3 Bingbong, and had been very aggressive in his racing. And to be fair, he was 24th two years ago. But not even his former team-mate Van Avermaet saw that coming:

"I think the performance of Bettiol was the biggest one, no one expected him for the win. He was my team-mate last year. I saw he had some attention, but he was never had a super level in BMC. No one was expecting this.”

There were also good performances from Nils Politt, Tiesj Benoot and a 'sick' Oli Naesen with top 10 finishes, Wout Van Aert sat out the sprint and finished 14th, and Van Baarle gave us a bit of fun for our money with a superb ride, eventually coming home in 18th. It leaves a lot of questions unanswered though ahead of Roubaix, with the picture cloudier than ever based on the stalemate at Flanders.  

Paris-Roubaix is a different beast altogether though to Flanders. The terrain may be flatter, allowing some riders a better chance than the hilly Ronde route, but it contains no less than 54.5kms of cobbles altogether in 29 sections this year.  The route is more or less the same as last year, with a small change in the earlier part of the race, but the second half of the course is exactly the same.

One notable change to the course is the renaming of the Viesly to Briastre sector of pavé to the 'Secteur Michael Goolaerts' in memory of the Belgian rider who died of a heart attack during last year's race.  There are three five-star sectors, the highest degree of difficulty: Trouée d’Arenberg (sect. 18,  2.4km at 161.5km), the Mons-en-Pévèle (sect. 10, 3kms at 208.5km) and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre (sect. 4, 2.1km at 240km).

Known as 'L'enfer du Nord' or the 'Hell of the North' it was first run in 1896 and is one of the oldest races in the world - it's the 117th edition of the race this year. 

The Route

Every year they start in Compiegne in the Place du Palais, just north of Paris and the first 97.5kms are pretty uneventful, flat and boring until they hit the first of the cobbled sections at Troisvilles to Inchy, a 3-star, 900m stretch (shortened from the usual 2,200m) to ease them in to the Pavé.  Over the next 60kms they pass nine cobbled sections covering a total of 16.8kms of Pavé as they head predominantly northwards towards Valenciennes. 

The three 'Five-Star' sections of cobbles will have a major bearing on the outcome of the race. The first comes with 92.5kms left, section 19 of the Trouée d'Arenberg (the Trench of Arenberg) which is a punishing and very rough 2.3kms long (above). F irst proposed by Jean Stablinski, a former world champion who used to work in the local mine, it's an ominous and iconic section of 'road'.  As Stablinski said more than 50 years ago "Paris-Roubaix is not won in the Arenberg, but from there the group with the winner is selected."

Pippo Pozzato once described it as follows: "It's the true definition of hell. It's very dangerous, especially in the first kilometre when we enter it at more than 60kmph. It's unbelievable. The bike goes in all directions. It will be a real spectacle but I don't know if it's really necessary to impose it on us"

The next key five star section is the Mons-en-Pévèle section which comes with only about 45kms to go and has been a race-shaper on a number of occassions in the past. It's John Degenkolb's favourite stretch of cobbles, he had this to say about it: "I like Camphin-en-Pévèle. It’s a very decisive stretch most of the times. We made the decisive acceleration there, last year in the Tour, but also in Paris-Roubaix if you look back at the previous years you need to be attentive there. It’s technical, with corners and you know that Carrefour de l’Arbre is coming straight after that, there’s not a lot of time between them."

In 2010 Cancellara launched his race-winning move just before this section of pavé. In 2012, Boonen kicked off his long solo effort just before this section, putting the hammer down and quickly building up a lead.  In 2008 Stijn Devolder attacked here and helped set up Boonen for another of his wins. It's 3km long and the first 1,100m are in ok condition, but the last 1,100m are quite rough.

There's a series of tough cobbled sections that come one after the other in the last 40kms but it's the 4th last section of the Carrefour de l'Arbe with 16.5kms to go that can be a race maker or race breaker.  Not only is it a place where the strongest will try to shed any remaining hangers-on by hammering it at the front, it is also a section which sees it's fair share of crashes and accidents. It's where GVA got rid of all bar Langeveld and Stybar in 2017.

Then on to the finish in Roubaix.. First, one last section of cobbles, but it's flat and easy, almost procession-like in the town as they approach the velodrome and pass under the 1km to go flag. Then on to the finish, a lap and a half of the velodrome, which often sees the leading riders joined on their last lap by the chasers starting their first lap, or like last year, gapped riders making it back as those up front almost start to perform track stands and prepare for the sprint.

You have to time your sprint right and get the right line, if you are on your last legs you need to hug the track edge and try to hang on, if you've still got strength you can come around the top and try to outsprint your rivals. There's no other finish like it in cycling.

Contenders and Favourites

Here we go again, how do you pick a winner of this race, especially in light of what we saw last Sunday?! Well, do we discount Peter Sagan completely? It's probably foolish to do so, but he looked cooked from a long way out and barely hung on up the Kwaremont and Paterberg. He didn't even sprint at the end, no energy left to sprint for minor places. And I think a Peter Sagan who was at, or even near, 100% would have worked hard to try to pull back Bettiol, or at least cajole the others in to forming a more coherent chase.

On the flip side, every tough race he does, will be getting him fitter and closer to where he needs to be to win this. He struggled on the hills, but looked ok on the flat - no hills in this race to worry about. Burghardt, Bodnar, Selig and Oss will look after him well, and he's the reigning champ after all.

But despite winning last year, his best result other than that was 6th in 2014, although his 11th place in 2016 came after he and Cancellara had got caught behind a crash, and was also the race where he bunny-hopped over Cancellara's bike after he crashed on the Mons-en-Pévèle sector. But 7/2 favourite? I don't think so. Way too short, even if he was 100%, given how level the playing field has looked in recent races. 

Second favourite is John Degenkolb at 10/1, and you all know he's a personal favourite of mine. He delivered for me in this race in 2015, he delivered for me in the Tour de France stage last year on these roads at 33/1.. He struggles a bit on the hills, but has been riding well lately, especially in Gent Wevelgem where he was one of the strongest at the end of a tough day, sprinting to 2nd place behind Kristoff. 

2nd in 2014, winning the sprint behind Terpstra, winner in 2015 after a superb ride to get away and bridge to the leaders. He also showed his mastery of this race with his performance in the 2018 TDF stage, suddenly emerging out of the dust of the Mons-en-Pevele with Van Avermaet and Lampaert, with Sagan, Jungels, Stuyven and Gilbert left floundering behind.

It made for a nervous last 10kms or so for me, sat in a little bar not far from the course, screaming at the TV, but once it came to a sprint, I knew he wouldn't be beaten. And his post-race interview was one of the most emotional I have seen, where he said that "everyone said I was finished, but I never gave up".. It had me welling up I'm not ashamed to say!

His build-up has been good, he was almost in the mix at Flanders but just couldn't do the hills, he'll be much more comfortable on this terrain. With the chances of us getting another small group of favourites, unable to shake each other off coming to the velodrome, I expect Dege to be there, and will have a big chance of victory. 

And Dege is looking forward to the race too.. “I think everyone knows I really love this race, it’s my favorite race. I am not the only one who loves this race obviously, but for me it’s an outstanding race. Knowing that if you go fast on the cobbles, they will suffer in the back and you can potentially drop them, is an amazing feeling. It also requires a specific skillset and you need the technique to ride on them. You need to keep the traction. It’s all about producing the right power at the right moment."

But could Trek have another dark horse in Jasper Stuyven? He's been below the radar in the spring Classics so far, but that was because he got sick before KBK "My preparation is done, but it was obviously not ideal that I got sick before Kuurne-Brussel-Kuurne and I really felt this in the previous races. The Tour of Flanders however gave me a big confidence boost. It was the first day in the whole year where I felt really close to the Jasper I should be and it’s maybe just on time to finish high on Sunday.”

19th in Flanders, 14th in Dwars Door, 17th in G-W, not bad for a guy that wasn't 100%. Remember too that he has finished 5th and 4th in the last two editions here, and was 6th in the TDF stage last year. He has also won the Junior edition of the race in 2010 and finished 2nd in 2012 in the Espoirs version.

When asked about his favouritre sector he had this to say: "Cysoing is my favorite sector. I have always liked it. I attacked there when I won as a junior, and it was a decisive stretch when I finished 2nd as an U23. And obviously now it’s where my fan club is going, and that gives it a little extra, but I’ve always felt good at that sector.” He's generally around 20/1, but the 33/1 with Bet365 is worth an interest in.

Greg Van Avermaet at 12/1 is another former winner in the race, winning in the small sprint in 2017, but he has also finished 3rd in 2015 and 4th in 2018 and 2013. Very consistent in this and the Belgian cobbled Classics, he has actually looked quite strong to me in recent weeks, but just can't get away or catch a break. If there is a small group of say 5 or 6 favourites to manage to break away on a sector like Mons-en-Pévéle or the Carrefour, I'd expect him to be up there.

And depending on who else is with him, he's very capable of sprinting to a top 3, maybe even winning. But it's his weak team that could be his downfall again, in a race with high probabilities of accidents and punctures, he might find himself standing at the side of the road all on his own at the worst possible time. But he's generally had good luck in his races and unless any misfortune happens in the crucial last few sectors I think he'll be ok. I expect a big showing from Greg Sunday, he must be pretty frustrated with his Spring campaign so far and will be desperate to get a result for CCC. 

Alexander Kristoff shot up in the betting for this after his impressive win in Gent-Wevelgem, coming back from the dead to prove the strongest of an exhausted group in the sprint. He followed that up with another impressive ride in Flanders, just about hanging on to the coat-tails of the leaders over the Kwaremont and Paterberg, getting back on in the kilometre or so after the descent off the Paterberg, and then getting up to win the 'sprint' for 3rd. 

He's now just 12/1 from 66/1 in February, a massive shortening in price for a guy who seems to find trouble here almost every single year. Four DNFs out of nine starts, with his best results being 9th in 2013 and 10th in 2015. It's a pretty inexperienced and lightweight team he has with him here though too, he's going to be pretty isolated 100kms from home.

Fernando Gaviria has been riding really well of late, and really surprised me for quite a while in Flanders, but then dropped through the field like a stone to finish in 78th, over 6 minutes down (not sure if he crashed or had a mechanical). Can this course suit him better? Will Kristoff be asked to look after him in the hope that it comes to a small bunch finish? As much as I'd love to see Kristoff win it, I just think there are too many questions to back him. 

And then we come to the 'Wolfpack' - the Deceuninck QuickStep boys. Zdenek Stybar is the shortest of them again at 12/1, and I did speculate ahead of Flanders that his hectic season to date might catch up with him. I called him out as looking to be struggling on the hill out of Ronse, he was dropped soon after. Will he have recovered in time for something as brutal as this? 

2nd twice (2017 and 2015), 5th, 6th and 9th, he's finished in the top 10 in five out of the six times he's done the race. Outsprinted by GVA in 2017 and Dege in 2015, he had done everthing right up all day, just didn't have the kick to win. He showed though this year in the E3 that he can have the measure of GVA now in a sprint, could he finally land the win? 

Yves Lampaert is the second favourite for DQS, currently trading at 16/1 like Stybar, and he will be fancied by a few to go well here too following his powerful performance in the TDF stage last year when he finished 3rd behind Dege and GVA. 7th here in 2015, he came home on his own 7" behind the Dege group, but he's also finished 2nd in the 'Espoirs' edition back in 2012. The guy that beat him that day, winning by an astonishing margin of 2'49", was none other than his now team-mate Bob Jungels, with Mike Teunnissen in 8th and Florian Senechal in 9th. 

Lampaert has been doing a great team job so far this season, working for Stybar, Jungels and the rest, but has also managed top 10 finishes in OHN, KBK, Dwars Door and finished 11th in Strade Bianche. Could this be a chance for him to shine in a race that often turns out to be every man for himself?

Well he's just one of a massively powerful squad though, with Ilio Keise, Florian Senechal, Tim Declerq, Philipe Gilbert and Kasper Asgreen, who finished 2nd in Flanders. The only surprise is that Bob Jungels is taking a break until the Ardennes (citing fatigue) and isn't here, but I think we could see at least 3 of them in the leading group hitting the last 50kms and they will play a major part in the outcome of this race.. but are any of them good enough to win it? 

Stybar and Lampaert have started to look tired to me, Gilbert could still be below par after his stomach trouble, so it could be that we see Florian Senechal taking a lead role for the team here after sitting out Flanders. He has finished 12th here in 2017 and 9th in the Espoirs version in 2012, but he won the Juniors version in 2011. He hails from Cambrai, practically on the route, so he'll get plenty of support, and knows the roads like the back of his hand. I've backed him at 400/1 and 200/1 over the years, and I did manage to get 150/1 on him as he was winning Le Samyn a few weeks back, best price now is 66/1, but still worth a shot. 

Oliver Naesen is next at a general 12/1 price, is he over his champagne-induced bronchitis? Well he rode pretty well in Flanders for a guy who was sick, finishing 7th, but it was noticable how anonymous he was in the race. You saw flashes of his Belgian stripes sometimes poking out from behind the main riders, but generally he hid away all day and just followed wheels. His record here isn't brilliant though, 12th,31st, 13th, 57th over the last four years, and he has yet to win a race of a higher calibre than the Bretagne Classic.. 

Just a point too on performances here last year - on the right you can see the times over the various sections from the Trouee d'Arenberg onwards for GVA (left) and Naesen (right). Van Avermaet was quicker than Naesen over almost every single key sector and was 1'11" faster than Naesen over all sectors.

Crucially, Naesen lost 19" to him over the Mons-en-Pevele and 17" on the Carrefour, and finished 57" behind him at the finish, all time lost on the cobbles. If Greg puts the hammer down again and goes with the strongest cobbles guys, Naesen might find himself floundering again. Ok, they are both in different condition/form to this time last year, GVA down, Naesen up, but it's worth noting. 

Teisj Benoot is 22/1 and the Lotto man is another who will be pleased, but probably a little bit disappointed too with his performance in Flanders. He was there or thereabouts at the front all day, being looked after by a strong-looking Keukeleire, but couldn't throw a meaningful punch either. Seeing as Benoot seems to like the hillier courses better these days, and his results in this race read 114th (2016) and 100th (2015), I'm steering clear this weekend.. Although it's worth pointing out he was 15th in the Espoirs version in 2014 (won by Mike Teunnissen).

Sep Vanmarcke seems to either be losing his punch or has been building up his form to be ready for this race.. Ineffective and dropped early in OHN, crashed in E3, he then looked to be more up for it in Flanders, making his presence known in the lead-in to the Kwaremont. Then, he put the hammer down and gave his last ounce of energy for Bettiol, who jumped off the front and went on to win. The joy on his face when celebrating with Bettiol after the finish line showed how it meant a lot to him. 

Interestingly he did Scheldeprijs Wednesday, rolled around and finished 72nd, more training in the legs though. Hugely consistent in this race, he's always involved it seems, with 6th, 4th, 11th, 4th and 2nd his results over the last five times he's done this race. 10/1 for this race in back in January (12/1 for it last year), 22/1 could be a tremendous price come Sunday afternoon if he hits top gear on the cobbles and gets in a small group. But it'll have to be less than four for him to podium, he won't be beating many in the sprint.. 

There's no Bettiol here this weekend, but Sep's team-mate Sebastian Langeveld has finished 3rd in this race in 2017, being part of the winning group with GVA. He's also finished 7th in the Espoirs version, way back in 2005, he clearly goes well on this course, and has been riding well in recent weeks, but I think I'd want something closer to 50/1 than 33/1 for a guy who hasn't won since the Dutch Nationals in 2014. EF have multiple cards to play Sunday though, as they also have Taylor Phinney who could go well. 

Sky's best chance probably rests with Dylan Van Baarle who put on a good show last Sunday in Flanders, but ultimately got nothing out of the day. He needs to sit in Sunday, save energy until the crucial points and then put the hammer down and see what happens. He's been top 20 the last 3 years, he's riding well, he might get a bit closer this year. I backed him weeks ago before he had his accident at 50/1, he's basically the same price now..

They also have Luke Rowe, Ian Stannard, Gianni Moscon, Owain Doull and Chris Lawless  fresh off his 3rd in the Scheldeprijs, but this is a different ball game altogether, don't think we'll be seeing him, or indeed any of the other sky guys in the final shake-up. 

Nils Politt - he doesn't look much like he'd go well over cobbles, with his tall, ungainly looking body, but he loves riding cobbles, and particularly Roubaix.. 7th last year in his first ride in the race, Politt is really looking forward to this race: 

“It is fun riding Roubaix. I like riding on the cobbles. I like to fight for position with everybody. It’s all about the legs and full gas racing. I like it. I don’t like races that start easy and we only really race in the last hour. I like it hard the entire time. This is a nice thing in Paris-Roubaix - you are constantly fighting to come onto the pavé in a good position.”

Coached by Dirk Demol, who won the race in 1988 by being part of a record-breaking winning break that were away for 222kms, Politt says "My legs are good. I look forward to Roubaix and I think I can do a good result there but you never know. You can have bad luck with a flat tire. Or one time not in the right position and there is a split, or you crash out. It’s like war. My goal is to be again in the top 10." 

And the way he has been riding this year would suggest he is capable of a top 10 (5th in Flanders, 6th in E3) but it will be really hard for him to make the top 3 this year I think, so there's not much value in him at 20/1.. but give him another year or two and I think he'll be capable of challenging for the win. 

Wout Van Aert - has he gone off the boil a little bit too following a brutally-tough spring campaign so far? Remember he came in to this road season off the back of a tough cyclo-cross season, he could be forgiven for starting to feel some fatigue in the legs. 13th last year though, he has to be respected if the legs are still good.

But of the Jumbo-Visma guys I'd rather have a nibble on Mike Teunissen at a far more tasty 150/1. As mentioned earlier he won the Espoirs edition in 2014, and finished 11th last year, and he's been riding ok of late as well with 10th in the Dreidaags and 18th in Dwars Door. 

Other than that, you might see the likes of Arnaud Démare, Matteo Trentin, André Greipel and Jens Debuscherre who could possibly hang in there on a good day, Trentin being the most likely, but I don't hold out much hope for them. Edvald Boasson Hagen put in a big dig on Wednesday in the Scheldeprijs and was solo inside the last 10kms and really made the sprinter's teams work.. He could be hitting form at the right time and I thought he was worth a small bet for this Wednesday at 80/1.

It's going to be another technical, testy, nervy, tactical race, and surely, we will not see a repeat of Flanders where someone just rides off the front to victory, or a repeat of last year where Sagan just rolled off the front to victory.. or Jungels in KBK, or Stybar in OHN.... actually, it's probably exactly what will happen, as fatigue seems to be having a massive effect on the outcome of races lately (of course I hear you shout!)..

What I mean is that everyong is shattered.. yet someone has something left and they try it.. and all the others are so tired they wait for someone else to start chasing. But no-one does, and suddenly the breaker is gone. One or two men giving it 110%, time-trialling to the finish versus a bunch of guys who are only giving it 80% and stop-starting the pursuit, possibly with some of the breakers' team-mates in there breaking up the rhythm.. We've seen it over and over again.

I can see Sagan having a better day, but if he doesn't he won't be able to stay with the likes of GVA over the hardest sectors. Vanmarcke, Lampaert, Naesen, Benoot, Dege, Stuyven, Van Baarle, Kristoff, Teunissen, Langeveld, Politt should all be close, and we might get some surprises thrown in there too. But I'm hoping that Trek have a big day Sunday, I can see them being able to play the 1-2 with Stuyven attacking and Dege being allowed to sit in.

And if it comes back together, Dege wins again in Roubaix.. I'm on at 14/1 with about a month, but there is still 12/1 out there with Betway. And after successfully starting a campaign to save the Junior Paris-Roubaix race in February, no one deserves to win it more than he does. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on John Degenkolb at 12/1 with Betway

0.5pts e/w on Jasper Stuyven at 33/1 with Bet365

0.3pts e/w on Mike Teunissen at 150/1 with Paddy Power/Betfair

0.3pts e/w on Dylan Van Baarle at 66/1 with Betway

0.2pts e/w Boasson on Eddie Boasson Hagen at 80/1

Match-Bets:

Teunissen to beat Sieberg and Kristoff to beat Demare - 2pts at 11/10

add Politt to beat Keukeleire to make it a treble at 2.1/1 - 2pts

Van Baarle to beat Rowe - 3pts at 5/6

Van Aert to beat Benoot and Vanmarcke to beat Moscon - 2pts at 11/10

Van Avermaet to beat Naesen - 3pts at 8/11