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Published on Saturday, 02 March 2019 21:13

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

Sunday 3rd March 2019, 200kms

After the cobbles and the hellingen of the Omloop, the sprinters supposedly get their chance to shine on the second day of this weekend's double-header with the flatter parcours of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. 

I say 'supposedly', because two of the last three editions of the race have been won by breaks - Jasper Stuyven powered away from them all in 2016 to record a stunning solo victory, and in 2017 an elite group with Peter Sagan, Stuyven, Bennot, Rowe and Trentin held off the chasing pack. 

Dylan Groenewegen reclaimed it for the sprinters last year though with a facile victory in the sprint, several bike lengths ahead of Démare and Colbrelli. Mark Cavendish was the last sprinter to win this race before that in 2015, and also won it in 2012 in a sprint. In between Tom Boonen won the sprint from Moreno Hofland and Sep Vanmarcke in 2014, but 2013's race was cancelled because of the weather. 

Many riders take part in both Omloop and KBK, some working for team-mates Saturday who repay the favour on the Sunday and vice-versa. Some riders just partake in one, the sprinters don't particularly like the Omloop, others just do the Omloop and don't make it to Sunday's race as they may have come to grief on Saturday!

A lot of the roads used in the old Omloop (and in the Tour of Flanders) are used again on Sunday, but the big difference is that the final Hellingen, the Nokereberg, comes with a full 50km to go, meaning there is plenty of time to make sure it ends up in a sprint finish. 

It looks like a great opportunity for Groenewegen to win his second KBK in a row though, as despite this being the 'sprinters' cobbled race, it has attracted only a handful of sprinters again this year, most of the best sprinters in the world were over in the UAE Tour.

It could mean that we see a break win again, as there are less sprinters teams here to control it, but it also means that those teams with sprinters know that they have a big chance of a win if they can get their man to the last kilometre at the front of the race, there will be a lot of pressure on Jumbo-Visma.

Impressive win by Stybar today in Omloop, he was prominent all day, always looked calm and in control and his attack was a masterclass in the counter-attack art. Wellens made a move, he was pulled up by GVA, Stybar jumped and GVA struggled to go again.. but no one else could go either. Suddenly it was one motivated rider vs four who were not as eager to go full gas, and like Valgren last year, it was all over very quickly. 

For a while Trentin looked like he was on a great day, but when it mattered most he couldn't go with the race-winning moves, he was missing a little on the climbs. But a lot of riders went missing today, it was quite a strange race from that point of view.. We didn't see Terpstra, Colbrelli, Valgren (he was sick this week), Van Aert came for a while to the front, but disappeared quickly and almost all the other big favourites bar Lutsenko, Wellens, Van Avermaet and Teuns struggled to make an impression, with Sep Vanmarcke getting dropped pretty early in proceedings. Tiesj Benoot was unlucky, he slid out when part of the lead group.

The Route

It's basically the same as last years race, with the same finish, two laps of a 15.3kms circuit around Kuurne. There is a new first hill in the race when they take on the Wolvenberg, a climb often used in the Ronde and other Flanders races. It comes after just 32kms and then it's a further 35kms until they reach the next hill, so even though it is tough at 7.9% for 708m, it is far too far out to have any impact on the race. 

After that they traverse eastwards across Flanders. Despite the name, they don't actually reach Bruxelles, but as they reach the outskirts of the city near Voorde they loop around and head back towards the lumpy southern part of the course around Ronse, going over the Onkerzeleberg (2.1kms at 3%) after 67.5kms, the La Houppe (1.9kms at 4.8%) after 82.8kms and the Kanarieberg (1km at 7.7%) after 88.3kms 

In to Ronse and out of Ronse up the nasty Kruisberg (1km at 7.7%) after 95kms, they continue heading west over the Hotond (2.7kms at 3.1%) after 97kms, the Cote du Trieu (1.3kms at 7%) after 105kms and on to the Oude Kwaremont. The Kwaremont needs no introductions of course, being one of the most famous cobbled sections in all of bike racing, a destroyer of many hopes in the finale of the Ronde. There are still 85kms to go from this point though, so although the pressure will be on at this stage, there is still a long way to go. 

They carry on west to cross the Kluisberg (1.1kms at 6%)  and shortly after turn north to start heading back towards the finishing circuit, taking on the Tiegemberg-Vossenhol with 62kms to go (750m at 5%). 4kms later it's the Holstraat (1km at 5.2%) and with 50kms to go they pass the final Helingen of the day, the Nokereberg (350m at 5.7%). It may be only 350m long, but it's going to hurt at this point in the race, especially if some of the favourites start attacking each other to try to get away from the sprinters teams. 

With 30.4kms to go they start on the final 15km circuit, which they do twice. There are no major challenges on the final circuit, but the wind can play a part and stronger riders can ride away and cause splits, like the front five did last year.  Like last year though, the sprint finish will be in to a head-wind, so the sprinters will have to time it right as it is a wide-open 500m long road, some will go too early and blow up. 

The forecast isn't great for Sunday, it's going to be wet and windy, with 15-16mph winds blowing from the south-west. It could cause a few problems as it will be a cross-wind for most of the day, coming at them from their right on the way out, but will be a cross/tail-wind for most of the way back. It could be enough to blow the race apart if some teams really want to try.....

Contenders

This race is now one of the few chances in the northern Classics for the sprinters, like the Scheldenprijs between Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. Two years ago Jasper Stuyven pulled off a master-stroke, taking advantage of an indecisive and reluctant-to-commit lead group, and possibly also his relative anonymity to win in spectacular style. No one gave him a chance when he took off with 17.1kms to go, brave, but foolish effort we all thought.. but he showed his power and his class and they didn't see him again. 

You would think again though that the most likely scenario given the parcours, with the hard southern section around the Kwaremont a full 100km from the finish and the last real obstacle of the Nokereberg coming 50kms from the finish is that we are going to see the race come back together in time for a sprint finish in Kuurne again. 

I think Dylan Groenewegen is the man to beat again on Sunday, given how easily he won the sprint last year. There's no 7/1 about him this year though like last year, he's just 5/2 (as short as 7/4) to win this time.  Interestingly, he is not doing Omloop again this year, which I think is a wise decision, it stood him in good stead last year to come here fresh, unlike the year before when he didn't really feature. With a stage in the Algarve and Valenciana under his belt already he comes here with good legs and lots of confidence. 

LottoNL are looking very strong and Roosen has been a superb leadout for him again so far this season, like he was for a lot of his wins last season. Together with Van Poppel, Van der Hoorn, Jansen, Wynants and Lindeman, I think they will be leading the charge up the home straight, ready to release Groenewegen in the last 200m again. His low sprinting style will help him in to the headwind too. 

Groenewegen was very thankful of that team last year though "After the Oude Kwaremont the peloton broke into several groups and I ended up in the third group. But the team brought me back to the front perfectly. This way, I could get back in a good position. Even when Steven increased the gap, we never panicked. Maarten helped me a lot in the final and I could finish it off nicely." It could well be similar this year, so a lot of pressure on Wynants and the lads to get him to the finish with a chance of winning. 

His biggest danger on paper (and with the bookies) is probably DQS's Fabio Jakobsen who has started the season in good style, winning the first stage in the Algarve and pulling on the yellow jersey. He's a super sprinter too, and will have to take advantage of his chances in races like this, when Viviani is elsewhere. He won six lower-grade races last year, but also won the Scheldeprijs, showing he can mix it with the best of them when he gets his chance. 

He is targeting Paris-Nice this year he has said, it's his big ambition for the year, so he may not be tuned up fully yet. Also, even though he says he's looking forward to KBK, he has said himself "But perhaps the Flemish hills are a little less my thing.  Because I have less, in our neighborhood." It would worry me backing him at just 6/1, he may not even make it to the sprint! (Actually, he's not riding now...)

Sonny Colbrelli and Matteo Trentin are both 12/1, and I've waxed lyrical about them in my Omloop preview, so I won't go in to it again. What I would say though, is that in a straight out, flat sprint like this, I'd take Colbrelli in a match-bet over Trentin. So therefore, Colbrelli at 12/1 sounds a decent e/w bet to make the podium, he won't be far off it, he was 3rd last year, Colbrelli was 16th. Colbrelli fared a lot worse than Trentin today though, I think that Colbrelli eased off once he knew it was not his day, whereas Trentin had quite a tough day in the saddle. 

Pascal Ackerman is 12/1, Andre Greipel is 16/1, and the two big Germans won't be far off either. Ackerman has a decent enough team here with him with Benedetti, Selig, Drucker and Postlberger, and has won the Clasica de Almeria this year, along with the points jersey in the Algarve after a 3rd and 4th place..

His 3rd place was behind Jakobsen, his 4th was behind Groenewegen, so the form lines suggest he won't be beating either of them. In fact, I think Jempy Drucker at 66/1 could be a much better bet than his shorter-priced team-mate. He was strong today, quite prominent at the front, and even sprinted to the 'win' from the bunch behind Teuns to take 6th place. He was also 6th in this race last year, so 50/1 looks decent to me. 

Nacer Bouhanni looks very big for this too though at 33/1, considering he finished 3rd (2nd in the sprint) behind Stuyven in 2016. He came very close to winning stage 2 of Valenciana, finishing 2nd behind Trentin, and he also was close in Oman stage 1 with a 3rd place. He doesn't have a great leadout with him here either, but Vanbilsen and Van Lerberghe will look after him, and he could come close to a podium at a decent price. 

Andre Greipel has moved to Arkea Samsic, and he doesn't really have a leadout that I know of, we'll have to see how they gel and support him, but I can't have him for Sunday. Other outsiders I like the look of at big prices are Pim Ligthart at 250/1 with Skybet (was 4th here last year) and Tom Van Asbroeck at 200/1 (won the sprint for 3rd in the GP Marseille)

Of course with a startlist that includes Jasper Stuyven, Michael Valgren, Oliver Naesen, Niki Terpstra, Tiesj Benoot, Zdenek Stybar, Yves Lampaert and Bob Jungels, anything could happen.. a break might indeed make it all the way, be it something that gets away with 60 or more kms to go, or a late attack on the finishing circuit, but I think it's about a 90% chance that it will end in a bunch sprint again, and Groenewegen is the most likely winner, so we have to have a saver on him.. but let's have a go at some of the bigger priced guys to see if we can land a podium. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Dylan Groenewegen at 5/2 with Skybet 

0.35pts each-way on Jempy Drucker at 66/1 with Skybet paying 4 places

0.25pts each-way on Pim Ligthart at 250/1 with Skybet

0.25pts each-way on Tom Van Asbroeck at 200/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 33/1 with Bet365

Match Bets

Bouhanni to beat Philipsen - 2pts at evens with Bet365

Colbrelli to beat Trentin - 2pts at 11/10 with Will Hill

Terpstra to beat Stannard - 3pts at 4/6 with Will Hill