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Published on Thursday, 02 August 2018 16:01

Clasica San Sebastian

San Sebastian, Spain

Sat Aug 4th, 231kms

The Donostia-Donostia Klasikoa, or Clasica Cycliste San Sebastian as it's known to us non-Basques, takes place this Saturday in it's traditional slot one week after the Tour de France climax. 

I wasn't going to do a preview for this, as I was pretty exhausted after two months of working on Tour de France previews! But then I remembered I had 1st and 3rd last year (8/1 and 16/1) and 40/1 winner Bauke Mollema the year before, so this race has been good to me in recent years, so I said I'd have a quick look at it.. 3,500 words later, here it is.. 

It could have been even better still, as three years ago my 33/1 man Greg Van Avermaet was riding away from the pack on the final climb, only to be knocked over by a motorbike!

Last year's race was quite similar to the year before, in that if you were not in the first 10 as they hit the last 500m of the final climb, then you had no chance.. The descent back to town is very fast, and not too long, so a break with only 15-20" can hang on. Mikel Landa blew the race apart, only Tony Gallopin could stay with him, but behind Bauke Mollema clawed his way back up to them as they just crested the climb.

Tom Dumoulin was very impressive on the steep gradients to pull himself clear of the pack, tailed by Michal Kwiatkowski, marking for Landa. They joined the three up front on the descent, and as they approached the sprint, Landa led it out, Kwiat just waited at the back and pounced in the last 100m to take it from an unlucky Gallopin, Mollema rounded out the podium in 3rd place. 

It's the 37th running of the race, so not exactly the oldest classic in the world, but has built a reputation as a tough and challenging race, favoured by climbers and puncheurs coming out of the Tour with good legs, taking on guys who missed the Tour and prepared for this specifically. There haven't been many wins recently though from riders who have not ridden the Tour, it looks like the week's recovery after three hard weeks' racing is the perfect prep for this sort of race.

It's the same distance as last year at 231kms, and the route hasn't changed much from last year, it's an almost identical course. They are keeping the climb of Murgil Bidea, and it's likely once again to be the race decider. The previous winners Kwiatkowski, Adam Yates and Luis Leon Sanchez don't make the starting lineup this year, but it's still a quality field with previous winners Bauke Mollema, Alejandro Valverde and Tony Gallopin taking to the start line. 

It is a lumpy parcours that really saps the energy and the race is usually in bits as they approach the last 50kms or so, although this year, like in the last three editions, the final ascent of the Alto de Jaizkibel is further out than it used to be in the past, they crest it with nearly 54kms still to go.

One big problem for those trying to attack on the final climb is the number of spectators on the road - they narrow the road so much it's almost impossible to actually race up it, it's just single file behind the guy at the front. So all you can hope for is that you are part of that front group that gets round that final left hand bend (above) and over the top together, or that you are solo clear of them. Above you can see Mollema just about to catch Wellens and Landa, with Dumoulin and Kwiato just behind them.

As Mollema showed two years ago, it is possible to hold off a chasing pack on the descent, most guys will be going as fast as they possibly can and the gaps generally hold as they are doing similar speeds and they are all pretty tired. In fact, it's often an advantage to the lone attacker in a situation like this as the chasers don't want to commit too much and drag a rival to the line, only to be beaten by him, like Gallopin and Kwiat last year. 

The Route

It's almost exactly the same route as last year, after starting in Donostia (the Basque name for San Sebastian), they head off on a loop of almost 100kms out in to the countryside where they hit the first climb, the small Cat 3 Meaga after just 37kms and the first real test, the Cat 2 Alto de Iturburu after 60kms(right).

With 137kms gone they hit the Alto de Jaizkibel, a tough, exposed climb that drags on for around 8kms at an average of 5.6%, but with parts that hit well over 8%. We should see a thinning out on this first passage before they go down the fast and tricky descent to the base of the next challenge, the Cat 2 Alto de Arkale that comes just 23kms later. This is much shorter, but averages 6.1%, so there may be some break attempts go again here. 

Once over the Arkale it's back to the foot of the Jaizkibel for another go at it, followed again by the Arkale. Once over the Arkale for the last time there's only 31kms left and the race is at full gas at this stage. Instead of going over the Bordako Tontorra as a few years ago they go down a small descent and then start on the climb of the Murgil Bidea a new climb for the race in 2016. 

The Murgil Bidea is still a very hard climb of 1800m at 10.5%, with parts hitting 20% and the last 600m averaging 12.5%, hard enough to blow the race to pieces like the way the Tontorra does, but at least the road is (slightly) wider. It's where the race-deciding moves came last year and the year before, with Gallopin, Landa and Mollema the institgators.

They then plunge down the descent towards the finish, a really fast and furious descent, a descent that if you can get a small gap on you can hold off the chasers all the way to the finish in San Sebastian. The last 4kms are flat though, so if a small group does come off the climb together, it will probably end in a very small bunch sprint, or even just 5 or 6 guys like last year

Contenders and Favourites

I think there are different groups you can split the contenders in to for this race. First of all, guys coming off the Tour have a great record here. Then you have the guys who didn't do the Tour, but are coming here fresh and trained for this. And then you need to consider experience in this race - experience here seems to count for a lot.

Bauke Mollema has been on the podium in 3 of the last 4 editions, Valverde was on the podium on 4 of the last 5 (but was injured last year), Tony Gallopin 3 of the last 5 years. Lots of other guys go well after coming close in previous years - vven Adam Yates, who had only ridden it once previously had done brilliantly when he did ride it, that is, up until he crashed on the descent to the finish while with the leading riders. 

Let's start by looking at the guys who have just come out of the Tour and have experience of going well in the race. And top of that list has to be  Bauke Mollema again. He was very unlucky at the Tour as he damaged his back in the first week and that crippled him for quite a few stages.

It's a shame because I was told he was 'ripping the legs off us in the TTT' by one of the team and when he did start to get better he rode very well, taking a 3rd and a 4th place later in the race and featuring in a lot of breaks. 

He came pretty close with a brilliant ride last year to finish 3rd, but he of course was also a superb winner of the race for us in 2016, He has also finished 5th, 9th, 2nd and 6th in the four years prior to that. It won't be easy for him to ride away from this quality field again this year, especially if he still isn't 100% (I was told he was only 95% when he was finishing 3rd and 4th in the Tour stages), but if he's close to 100% expect him to be in the front group that crests that final climb.

He has a good team with him here, Toms Skujins will work his ass off for him again to get him to that final climb in the right place, or if the team calls for it, he might even get in the break of the day to take the pressure off of Trek. Markel Irizar, Michael Gogl and Koen de Kort will also be good support in the last 20kms. 

He opened at 24/1 with Kirol this week, it's annoying we can't bet with them from the UK, that was a great price. He's only 14/1 with Ladbrokes, but that's still just about ok, he should be there or thereabouts in the first 3 I think. 

Movistar have omitted former winner Alejandro Valverde, so it looks like it is up to Mikel Landa.  He is sure to be one of those doing the attacking on the final climb, he finished 5th here last year (and 6th in 2013), he will have to attack incredibly hard though and hope that he gets a 10-15" gap on two or three chasers who argue about who should do the chasing on the descent, it will be hard for him to get away and stay away, and he won't win a reduced sprint, as we saw last year. 

They also have a number of outsiders who could go ok, Rafael Valls has finished 19th here in 2012, but hasn't done the race since 2014 when he was a DNF. Victor De La Parte was a DNF on his only start here last year, and Ruben Fernandez could only finish 31st. Marc Soler rode very well in the Tour, but could he be a little fatigued after his efforts? He's never done the Clasica before though so I am ruling him out. 

BMC are back with Greg Van Avermaet again, a man that maybe should have won it in 2015 but was knocked off his bike by an idiot moto man while leading solo on the final climb. He didn't quite have the punch last year to go with the leaders, finishing 8th with the first main chasing group that were 38" down on the winners. It was similar in 2016, he wasn't far behind at all cresting the summit and caught the Roche/Uran/Yates group on the descent and took 5th in the sprint. He has an amazing record in this race with his results reading 11th, 2nd, 13th, 18th, 8th, 5th, 8th he always seems to be near the front at the end of the race.

He had a mixed Tour this year - the Roubaix stage, which would have been his top priority, ended in disappointment for him when he was outsprinted by our man John Degenkolb, and he also finished 4th and 5th in stages, but that was as close as he got to success on the road. He did of course win the TTT with BMC though, and sat in the yellow jersey for eight days, so I'm sure he wasn't too disappointed over all. There is no one else in that team though will come close besides GVA. 16/1 isn't a bad price for him. 

A wildcard this year is Julian Alaphilippe, coming here on the back of an amazing Tour de France where the Classics puncheur took home two mountain stages and the Polka Dot jersey... a phenomenal return for the QSF man. He was strong everywhere during the race, and rode the smartest race of all at times, timing his moves just right.

He hasn't done this race since 2015, but he did finish in the first chase group after Yates with the favourites in 8th place that year, so he is capable on this course. Last year he didn't do the Tour either, but did the Vuelta a Burgos and the Vuelta a Espana after it instead of San Sebastian, but is back for a shot again this year.

He is sure to be involved near the finish, but I'm going to swerve him I think, looks like it's been one long party for Alaphilippe since he won the KOM last Sunday and I'm worried he might not be 100% to back him at just 10/3. QSF also have Enric Mas, Bob Jungels and Pieter Serry who could go well too.

Sky have a strong squad here of course, packed with decent climbers, none better than their TDF hero Egan Bernal, a man who looked like the Duracell bunny at times, pulling for mile after mile at the front for Thomas, getting distanced when someone attacked, only to very often ride back on and straight to the front again.

He might be tired after that effort, but I'm not sure, he still looked pretty strong towards the end of the race, finishing 25th in the ITT. He has not done this race before though, which is a minor black mark against him, I'd prefer to have seen him do it before to get behind him. 

He's backed up by Jonathan Castroviejo from the Tour squad, but interestingly, all the rest of the team did not do the Tour. David Lopez, David De La Cruz and Sebastian Henao would be the three best climbers out of the rest of the squad, but don't rule out Tao Geogeghan Hart who has been riding very well this year. DDLC finished 40th and 66th here in the last two years, Lopez has done it seven times but the closest he has ever come is 30th, Henao once in 2015 (32nd). 

Tony Gallopin has ridden very well in the past here when riding for Lotto Soudal, he has now done it four times, winning it the first time in 2013, then was 5th in 2014, 2nd in 2016 and 2nd again last year, outsprinted by Kwiat. He has a great pedigree in this race, one of the best here, but has he recovered sufficiently in order to feature here? He crashed in the French Nationals before the Tour started and struggled from the very start, eventually abandoning on stage 12 to Alpe d'Huez. That has given him two weeks to recover, but it's a real concern that he was so beat up that he could only make it to stage 12.  

Astana give Miguel Angel Lopez a shot at this, and he could be a major player in the finish too, if he can explode up that final climb like we know he can.. He hasn't raced sinced his brilliant 3rd place finish in the Giro, that's over two months off he's had, so it is that a good thing or a bad thing given how we know that the record of TDF participants is better than non-participants in recent years?

Well he has been training in Colombia for the Vuelta, and although that should make him pretty fit, I'm not sure he'll be fully tuned up yet and is probably going to be using this to fine-tune for the Vuelta. Omar Fraile and Davide Villella are two others who you think might go well here, but Fraile hasn't finished in two attempts in the last 3 years and in Villella's only time riding it in 2016 he finished 86th.

Lotto Soudal's best hopes probably rest with Jelle Vandendert or Tim Wellens. Vanendert has come out of a pretty anonymous TDF which eventually saw him abandon when a mile behind everyone on the brutal stage 19 to Laruns. He has finished 15th last year and 6th in 2014, but that TDF has surely taken a lot out of him and I doubt he'll feature here.

Tim Wellens finished 13th two years ago but DNF'ed last year, but he comes here pretty race-fit as he has just won the Tour de Wallonie last week, taking a lumpy stage along the way too. He's a similar sort of mould as Tony Gallopin, he might be able to hang in there with some of the climbers on the final climb.

Rigoberto Uran hasn't a bad record in this race either, finishing 8th in 2011 and 10th in 2015, but missed the boat last year and only finished in 23rd. He crashed in the Roubaix stage of the Tour though and never recovered, he eventually stepped off on stage 12 to begin his recovery and prepare for the Vuelta - this race might come just a little too soon for him.

EF Drapac have a few outsiders for this too, with Daniel Martinez who did ok in the Tour to finish 36th (5th in the Youth competition) and Daniel Moreno, but Moreno has only raced once in two months at the Spanish Nationals (finished 6th) so I'm not sure he'll be race-fit for this.

Bahrain have Gorka and Jon Izagirre, but neither of them look like potential winners of this race, I think they will find a few too strong on the hills or too fast in a sprint. None of the others on that squad have a hope. There's no Adam Yates this year but Mitchelton-Scott do have an outsider in Mikel Nieve, he has finished 4th here in 2014 & 2013, but he has been in the twenties for the last two years. I'd have wanted to see more of him in the TDF to have any confidence in him here I think, a top 30 place probably, a top 10 unlikely.  

The way Dan Martin was riding in the Tour you'd have to think he has a big chance here of attacking away from the pack on the last kilometre of the final climb. He was very strong in the TDF, and deserved his stage win and the most combative, as he just kept fighting, despite all the shit luck that keeps coming his way. If he can get clear on his own or even pull just one or two guys with him like Mollema, he can win this. 

He is backed up by an ok UAE team, Diego Ulissi didn't do the Tour, but warmed up for this with 25th place in the Ride London last weekend. It will be interesting to see who rides for who, but I think that we might see Ulissi take a big pull for Dan near the bottom of the climb to get him in to a position to attack and Dan will go once he can. 

And what about Primoz Roglic? If he can attack on the descent like he did in stage 19 of the Tour, he will be very hard to pin back again. It's a very strong TDF-centered team that he has here with him, lots of strong climbing power to look after him, and if he can get to the top of the climb at the front, or pretty near to it, he can be a real danger. The problem for him will be staying with the really strong guys on the final climb, he might not have the explosive power of some and might get caught up behind slower riders. 

I can't see anyone from Katusha, Sunweb (too steep for Michael Matthews), Dimension Data, Cofidis, Bora, AG2R, Burgos or Caja Rural winning. One outsider at a big price who might go close is Groupama FDJ's Anthony Roux.. Who? Roux.. He may not have a glittering palmares, but the newly-crowned French Champion has a pretty decent record in this race, finishing 7, 11, 23, 15 in the last four years, he led home the first main chase group, 38" behind Kwiat last year. He seems to like this final climb, and if he can get in the decisive move this year, he's not got a bad kick on him. At 100/1 he's worth a shot.    

So when it comes to picking a winner for this race, I think my shortlist was quite long to start with, but I narrowed it down to Bauke Mollema, Julian Alaphilippe, Dan Martin, Primoz Roglic, Tim Wellens, Mikel Landa, Egan Bernal and Greg Van Avermaet.. still a pretty long list. 

At the prices I'm backing Mollema again, he's an ok price at 12/1 to at least land a podium again. Alaphilippe is too short for me coming out of a week of celebrating the TDF, but Dan Martin should be primed and ready to go for this too I think, and he should be riding with even more confidence and will to attack than ever before. If he goes hard, there won't be many able to stay with him, and if he goes with the likes of Landa, Mollema or Bernal, he could well outsprint them. 

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Bauke Mollema at 14/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt e/w on Dan Martin at 7/1 with Ladbrokes

0.25pts e/w on Anthony Roux at 125/1 with Bet365

Matchbets:

Mollema to Landa and Nieve to beat Vanendert - 2pt at 13/8

Roglic to beat Bernal - 2pts at 8/11

Van Avermaet to beat Wellens - 2pts at 5/4