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Published on Thursday, 10 May 2018 21:30

Giro d'Italia St 7

Pizzo - Praia a Mare 

Friday 11th May, 159kms 

A stage for the sprinters, can't really see it finishing any other way. It's not too long thankfully to be sitting watching hours of flat nothingness, but still 159kms long, and 140kms before anything interesting will happen. 

Ok, I say stage for the sprinters, but there are two things that could spice up the stage a tiny little bit. The first is that little bump to negotiate with less than 19kms to go, and as we have seen so far this week, most of the sprinters get dropped at the sign of an incline. Well, Sam Bennett played games with us by powering up the hills on stage 4, only to come home almost last on stage 5 on similar terrain! But Viviani has been one of the first out the door every day, he has been struggling on even the slightest inclines.

Sacha Modolo you would think would have no problem on this sort of incline, being a man who has done so well in the Flanders hills, but he has also been struggling on the hilly stages. So we are sure to see a real charge up that hill by those teams with a vested interest in shedding the pure sprinters, we may even see some attacks as that hill tops out with less than 10kms to go, of which 4.5kms are on the flat.

The second thing to consider will be the weather, it looks like we might get some rain tomorrow, there is a 25-30% chance of rain apparently. And not only that, they spend their whole day more or less on the west coast of Italy, and there are going to be gusts coming in off the sea, with a north-westerly cross/head-wind of 10-13mph. This will kill the break's chances I think, but also could cause echelons and splits if some are not paying attention or are a little tired after today's tough run up Etna. 

Stage 6 Wrapup

What a stage that was.. a massive break, infiltrated by Chaves and Haig for Mitchelton-Scott, a chase down by BMC who kept the gap at a catchable level, only to be blown away by the other teams on Etna. Chaves had kept something in reserve and danced up to and right past Ciccone as the pack closed in to around 20" behind him. There were attacks by Pozzovivo, Pinot, Lopez, the pace ebbed and flowed, Froome was in trouble, Dennis was dangling..

Then Yates just exploded away from the pack. He bridged to Chaves in a matter of a minute or two, and they soloed to the line together. It was an amazing win for Chaves, a nice gesture from Yates to give him the win as he was taking the pink jersey. It left some punters delighted with their 33/1 Chaves and some furious with their bets on Yates.. Behind, Pinot did exactly as I expected him to, sprinting away from the others, but unfortunately it was only for 3rd.. but at least the e/w insurance made something back. 

Dennis struggled and lost about a minute to Yates, Dumoulin looked comfortable, Pinot looked strong. Lopez punched and tried, but got nowhere, but Pozzovivo did his usual trick of lots of attacking and lots of noise, but no end product. Froome looked in trouble, but he does that a lot, in the end he rolled in with the favourites and lost no time, something that looked in serious doubt 5kms down the hill. Aru played it stealthily today, we barely saw him, but he finished in the top 10. 

There was an amazing ride too by our young riders poke Ben O'Connor to finish 12th, he now sits 13th in the GC, but more importantly, he sits 2nd in the young riders category, 16" behind Carapaz who was superb too today in 7th. It was a good result for MS in the team classification competition, as our boy Nieve wasn't far off at all in 17th, coming home with a disappointing Woods and Betancur.

The matchbets were good and bad, the double and Pozzo bet won, Battaglin was disappointing, so was Kreuziger who was beaten by Henao as he had a head start being in the break.. It think we were unlucky there. A 0.5pt loss all in all, not too bad.. I think Pinot will win a stage in this race though, keeping the faith in that bet.  

The Route

They leave leave Pizzo and head up along the coast, barely leaving the coast road all day. The road is wide and uncomplicated, the only complications on the day possibly coming from the sea wind, as it's likely to be a north-westerly wind of around 10-13mph, blowing at them from their left all day.

With 140kms gone there is a little rise for 3.9kms at 3.6% average, but it shouldn't cause too many problems. They roll along a ledge above the finish town, climb another little rise with less than 10kms left, and with 6kms to go they descend down towards the finish in Praia a Mare at high speed. With just under 5kms to go they loop around a wide hairpin bend and start heading back south towards the finish.

Most of the last 4kms are long straight roads without much problems, but with just under 2kms to go they take a sharp left, then a sharp right and on to the finishing straight which is about 1900m long, plenty of time to get a sprint train organised. 

Contenders and Favourites

The way he has won his sprints so far you'd have to think that Elia Viviani will coast to victory again here and maybe put himself out of reach in the points competition, if he makes it to Rome. He was comfortably the fastest on stage 2, was caught out a little positioning wise in stage 3, was almost put in the barriers by Bennett, but he still cruised past him once he got going. The big question is, will he make it over that hill with the leaders? It will be touch and go I think, he has been struggling on any sort of incline so far, and the other teams know that. The likes of Lotto Fixall and Bora might well try to rip it up the hill, hoping to shake him off.

He has a super strong team with him of course, who will do their best to keep him in there, and even if he loses touch by 5" or 10" they might be able to get him back on. But it will be full gas for the last 20kms, I can't see teams easing off if they hear he is off the back, so it will be hard for him to come back. Also, Schachmann is in the white jersey, and has a chance in the sprint, they might just go with him to look after him if Viviani is really struggling. Too many doubts over Viviani to back him again at just 8/13, but if he gets over the hill, maybe try covering him in-play on Betfair!

Sam Bennett - the enigma - will he be the guy who got over the hills on stage 4, or the guy who was dropped badly on stage 5? Hard to know.. But I think I'll err on the side of he being able to hang in there, he was impressive in the Frankfurt race, got over the hills there easily and should have done a lot better than the 7th place, only for the last corner mistake. He suffered a big blow today though with the withdrawal of Rudiger Selig due to illness, he'll be a big loss in the leadout, he was great at dragging him through the melee. 

I think Bora will still do their utmost to shed Viv, they know they might not get a better chance of a stage win in this race. The pressure is on him, but if he get to the finish without Viviani, or even if the sting has been taken out of Viv's legs after clinging on on the climb, then he has a big chance. 

Sacha Modolo actually passed Bennett with good speed in the last metres of stage 2, after he had veered all over the road, he showed better speed than in stage 2 when he could only manage 5th. If he wants to move up the points classification, this is a big chance for him to take big points. The team aren't the best at leadouts, but they will have a few guys there for him, and he'll sit on wheels as well. He tends to try to be quite high up the lineout, so watch for him in the first 5 or so coming in to the last 500m.. He could go close too. 

Jakub Marezcko is as bad on hills as Viviani, in fact, maybe worse.. And his team look a bunch of lightweights, they have been struggling badly every stage, coming home en-masse at the bottom of the results every day almost. I am discounting him tomorrow, even if he finished well on stage 2. I am not sure he'll even make it. Another team that will have a vested interest in powering up the final hill, and will have the man-power to do it, is Bahrain Merida. They will be looking to get Niccolo Bonifazio to the sprint with as few sprinters as possible, if he does get there without Viviani and Marezcko, he'd have a chance at a top 10.

He looked ok on stage 2, just got checked up a little when Viv jumped in front of him on Marezcko's wheel, but finished well to take 4th ahead of Modolo. On stage 3 though he came home over 5 minutes down as he got caught out too far down the peloton when it split in the cross-winds and couldn't get back up. 

Danny Van Poppel has been getting closer too, going from 15th to 5th from stage 2 to 3, but struggled on stage 4 over the hills. That would get you worried in the same vein as Viviani and Marezcko, and LottoNL also now have a second strong card to play with an in-form Enrico Battaglin. In a straight out, flat finish like this though you'd have to think they'll go with DVP, but he needs to get over that hill first. 

Clement Venturini was 6th in the first sprint, nowhere to be seen in the second. Same with Ryan Gibbons, he was 7th in stage 2, not involved in the sprint in the next stage. Manuel Belletti was a bit more consistent at least, 8th in one, 7th in the other, he hasn't been far off at all and positioning mistakes cost him a better result. he's 80/1, and he may well end up 7th or 8th again, but at that price he's worth a shot that he sneaks in to a podium spot. Jens Debuscherre is 40/1 and he too looks a big price if things go a little pear-shaped for some of the sprinters, it will be in Lotto-Fixall's interest to rip it up that final hill to give him a chance. 

Not a stage to get excited about, the wind could cause problems, but you'd expect Quickstep, Bora and Modolo to be on the right side of it, can't say I'd be so confident about Willier Trestina getting Marezcko to the finish at the front. None of the win odds really appeal, I think we'll keep our powder dry for another day, but I'm having a nibble on Belleti just because of his price. A few matchbets look ok to me though - Bennett to beat Viviani is a big price for a head-to-head, he might turn the tables on him and 9/4 is too tempting.

Recommendations

0.25pts e/w on Manuel Belletti at 80/1 with 365

Matchbets

Modolo to beat Marezcko - 3pts at 8/11

Belletti to beat Planckaert and Gibbons to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 1.4/1 

Venturini to beat Debuscherre - 2pts at evens

Bennett to beat Viviani - 2pts at 9/4