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Published on Thursday, 10 May 2018 00:40

Giro d'Italia St 8

Praia a Mare - M. Di Mercogliano

Sat 12th May, 209kms 

A similar stage to stage 9, with a mostly flat run in, a little bump around a third of the way in and a charge up in to the clouds for the last 20kms. The last 10kms map looks like a pile of dropped spaghetti with 20 hairpins to negotiate.

It's a long stage at 209kms, one that will attract lots of interest for the break hopefuls, and we could well see a similar large group like on stage 6 go up the road.. And with Orica Scott now in Pink the break might just make it, they will be happy enough to leave non-dangerous riders just take the stage win and the bonus seconds. It's the second summit finish of the race, but the altitude is 500m lower than Etna - effectively they are climbing the equivalent of the final part of the Etna climb after the first little climb.

17kms at 5% is easier than Etna too, so the break could well stay away. We might see a little truce behind with the GC favourites thinking it might be a lot of energy wasted for not a lot of gain given the relatively easy climb, attacks will be easy enough to reel in you'd think. And they might be thinking of the next day's stage to the Gran Sasso, which is a much tougher finish. 

Stage 7 Review

What a fantastic win by Bennett, that was super-impressive. He tailed Viviani the whole of the last 8kms or so, following his every move. He was patient, he didn't let anyone cut in, he bided his time.. He was taken in close to the barriers, had to ease up and stop pedalling with just 150m to go, but once he got out he exploded past Viviani to take Ireland's first Giro stage win since Stephen Roche in 1987. 

Viviani was in the perfect position if he was good enough, I'd like to think that my prognosis that the hill would take the sting out of his legs was correct, either way, just delighted for Sam, he was under a lot of pressure to deliver. That is a top 3 placing in all of the last 7 Giro sprint stages, a pretty impressive statistic. Bonifazio was all over the place, Modolo had 3rd wrapped up but eased close to the line to let Bonifazio up, Modolo's e/w backers will not be pleased. 

It was a good day for the bets, all matchbets won, to land an 11pt profit on the day. I'm a bit annoyed I didn't go for Bennett outright for the win, but I'm glad I restricted my win bets and went for the matchbets, there were some nice ones in there. 

The Route

A run along the west coast of Italy from Praia a Mare, which turns inland at Salerno with 55kms to go. There are a series of little hills and bumps in the first 100kms, but it's mostly pretty flat for the next 50kms as they run along the coast. They turn inland at Salerno and then the road starts to rise up in steps, but it's mostly pretty easy, around 3-4%, with a couple of downhill sections as well.

With 17kms to go they start on the final climb, the Montevergine Di Mercogliano, a long climb at 17kms, but it's not very difficult at all, averaging just 5%. The second half of the climb is closer to 5.5%, with sections around 6.2-6.4% but it's not the steepness they need to worry about maybe, but the relentless hairpins inside the last 10kms.. Positioning will be key because there could be a large group come to the finish together, so late attacks through a hairpin could decide it, or could cost some who are too far back and can't react. The finishing straight is just 150m long, so again, positioning is going to be vitally important. 

Contenders and Favourites

So what have we learened from the stage to Etna? Well we saw that Simon Yates is in amazing form and just rode away from the GC with ease, quickly putting 26" in to them by the finish. No one even tried to go with him, maybe they discounted him a little bit and Pozzo, Dumoulin, Pinot etc all just wanted to mark each other. I don't think they will underestimate him again, especially now he's in pink and after the way he rode away from them all Thursday. 

He doesn't need to attack now, but I would't be surprised if he did! When you're going that well and you have a nice steady climb that is similar to the gradient he attacked and pulled away on on Etna, then it will be very tempting for him if he really is feeling that good.

George Bennett was interviewed before the Etna stage and he already had identified Pozzovivo, Yates and Pinot as the guys he saw as being the strongest so far in the race, and as it turned out, it was those three, and Bennett who looked like they might get away from Dumoulin and Froome for a while with about 4kms to go.

Esteban Chaves is a bit trickier to figure out what he does now, he's in 3rd in the GC and clearly was also climbing really well on Thursday. But it was a very different situation he found himself in with the break, he was able to sit in and save his energy in the break and then pounce late when they were all knackered. How will he fare when just sitting in with the favourites and riding in support of Yates?

It would be hard to see him attack him, but M-S are such an unpredictable and cohesive squad, it wouldn't surprise me either to see Matty White tell Chaves to go for it to shake things up and maybe open the door for Yates later. I don't think they really care if he takes pink, Yates will be better than him in the TT and probably over the remainder of the race. 

Tom Dumoulin ebbed and flowed, not always going with the attacks, but steadily riding to tempo and came home comfortably with the main group. He did close a gap at one point to Pozzo's attack wtih ease, leaving Froome and a few others behind, so he's clearly climbing well too. Froome was Froome, dangling, looking like he's struggling, going backwards, coming forwards, but ultimately finishing with the leaders. He says he's not been feeling great, his coach has said that he isn't going great, but look at how well he's doing when not feeling great, wait until he starts to hit top gear. 

He says he is just warming up and is happy with his form, that the goal is to be competitive in the final week. I think he might wait and watch again tomorrow, but at the same time it's a good gradient for him to spin the power out if he has it. He still attacked on Etna, he said just to see how the others were feeling, he can't be that bad if he was still able to attack them. 

Fabio Aru did well too, he followed some moves, missed some, but like Froome, got back to finish with the leaders. He too is only getting warmed up by the looks of things, I expect him to come out firing in the third week, this might be a bit soon for him. Thibaut Pinot looked good to me.. Covered moves, rode up to break attempts with ease and always was towards the front of the pack. And then that finishing kick.. he had a lot of power left when others struggled to go with him, he almost got a time gap. If the break can be reeled in tomorrow, he's my man again I think.

Domenico Pozzovivo did his usual punching and poking, but as usual got nothing out of it, but it did show that he has very good legs.. At one point if he'd have really kicked on, and got some help from the guys that went with him, they could have put time in to Froome, and possibly even Dumoulin. But he eased back and no one wanted to take a turn. George Bennett was impressive too, a bit under the radar on the stage, but covered the moves when he needed to and chased Pinot home to take 4th. 

Miguel Angel Lopez also tried a few digs but didn't get far, I think he'd prefer something steeper than this steady 5% gradient, so might just save the legs for another day. Richard Carapaz was a surprise, I didn't expect him to be right up there mixing it with the big boys, I thought he might go well in this race, highlighted him for the KOM prize, but that ride could well have scuppered his chances there as he will now probably be riding for GC. He could be a dark horse on this stage if the favourites are together coming to the last 3-4kms, he could jump away and might not be marked straight away. 

Ben O'Connor was sensational again, I have high hopes for our bet on him to be top young rider (w/o Lopez), he may even win it outright looking at how Lopez has been going so far.. Let's just hope he doesn't blow up later in the race. For now, he needs to just sit in the wheels and stay with the big boys for as long as he can. Ben Hermans, Sam Oomen and Pelle Bilbao also rode very well on Etna, it would be interesting to see if Bilbao can stay with them on this climb too, because if he can, he would have a big chance of taking stage honours. He's the highest placed Astana rider though, but all eyes might be on Lopez. 

So that's the main GC guys, what about the breakers? I give the break around a 50/50 chance of staying away I think, a good strong break could build up a lead of 5-6 mins early on in the first 100kms, if they keep a strong, steady pace over the flat part they might start the final climb with 3-4 mins in hand and that might be enough. I'm not sure Mitchelton will be all that interested in chasing hard, they can relax and just keep a steady tempo. Who else will chase? Maybe Astana if they fancy their chances with Bilbao or Lopez, Bahrain maybe for Dumoulin, FDJ for Pinot, as he has recon'ed this finish, and possibly Movistar. 

And then it's a lottery.... who do you pick from this lot.. Well Gulio Ciccone rode well on Etna but couldn't match Chaves' pace when he came up to him. He didn't crumble though and finished a very respectable 20th, with Betancur and Woods, ahead of Dennis. I think he'll try again. M-S might send Mikel Nieve in the break this time, he's climbing well too (was 17th on Etna) and it would mean they don't have to chase. If he can get to the final climb he'd have a chance. Ruben Plaza was in the break on stage 6 but couldn't stay with the leaders when it broke up, he might try again, but I think he might be stronger in the third week and will save my bet on him for a while. 

Francesco Gavazzi was also in the break in stage 6, the Androni man is a former winner of the Memorial Marco Pantani, he can climb.. He could have a chance here again and he's a massive 400/1. Robert Gesink could be a man for this stage too, he was on the attack on Etna, tried to go again late on, but just didn't have the legs. I think this finish suits him if he does manage to get in the break and they do stay away. I mentioned Hugh Carthy as a candidate on stage 6, he didn't make the break that day, but I think now with the stage under their belts and the sprints out of the way for a while, Bora are going to be going for it a bit more.. 

Gianluca Brambilla is another I'd like to keep onside I think for tomorrow, he looks to be going ok, just not had a lot of luck so far, this sort of stage might suit him too. He's quite short at just 25/1, but I fancy him to be involved. 

So there we have it, it's my first shot at the breakaway lottery, I hope we get a few of them up the road and hopefully we'll manage to find a winner in there.. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Gianluca Brambilla at 25/1 

0.5pts e/w on Robert Gesink at 33/1

0.3pts e/w on Giulio Ciccone at 25/1

0.3pts e/w on Francesco Gavazzi at 400/1

0.3pts e/w on Hugh Carthy at 80/1

0.2pts e/w on Mikel Nieve at 200/1

Matchbets

Carapaz to beat O'Connor and Bilbao to beat Henao - 2pts at 11/10

Goncalves to beat Schachmann - 2.5pts at 8/11 

Ciccone to beat Hermans - 2pts at 5/4