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- Published on Sunday, 13 May 2018 20:03
Giro d'Italia St 10
Penne - Gualdo Tadino
Tuesday 15th May, 239km
The longest stage of this year's Giro at 239kms, and it's an interesting stage in that it could be won by a break, but also the stronger sprinters should fancy it if their teams can control it over the lumpy terrain as the last 20kms are flat.
There will be plenty of break hopefuls who will not want to pasta chance up of attacking on this stage from Penne, the early climb will see a break go, and depending on who's in it, they may make it all the way.
Stage 9 Review
A big break of 14 went up the road, and annoyingly, Brambilla and Carthy were in the break, two of my picks from before.. and Cherel of course, after I discounting him.. The lead got up to nearly 8 mins with 110kms to go, with Svein Tuft just driving along at the front of the peloton for mile after mile.. It looked for a long time like the break would make it, but that final hill saw the lead tumble in the closing 30kms as Astana and M-S took up the pulling.
The speed in the last 10kms was phenomenal and one by one riders went out the back door until there were suddenly less then 30 riders left. The break disentegrated, Wellens surprisingly being one of the first out the back, well surprising for those who had made him favourite all day, trading down to less than 2/1, I couldn't believe that price.. Masnada pressed on and looked like he might hang on, but Jack Haig was relentless, like a machine at the front of the peloton, and eventually reeled him in with 3.8kms to go.
Gulio Ciccone attacked, Thibaut Pinot chased him down, Lopez attacked, Pinot chased him down.. Pozzovivo took off with far too far to go again, stretching them out with 600m to go, but as usual he was passed by several guys at the finish. Yates waited, and waited and waited, until taking off with 100m to go, to take an amazing win, justifying my faith in him. It was a relief to get the win with him, as we have not had a single man in the break again, despite Gesink saying in a pre-race interview that he was going to try to get in the break.
Pozzo, Carapaz and Bennett were impressive again, as was Dumoulin, but he did ship 12" to Yates. Lopez was surprisingly poor to me given it was a finish that was supposed to be one he would have liked. Ben O'Connor was super in 12th again, and I just hope Carapaz fades a bit as he could blow what could have been an amazing bet on O'Connor without Lopez at 12s.
As for Froome... well, it's all starting to transpire as I thought it might.. he is not in good form, he is clearly lacking something, or as Digger Forum said today "Froome’s performances this year are a walking advertisement for the efficacy of salbutamol as a PED." He is in big trouble now after shipping 1'07" more, he's now outside the top 10 and 2'27" behind Yates.. I still maintain that we may not see him finish this race and the 7/4 on him not to finish in the top 3 is looking pretty good.
Yates is looking in great shape coming in to the rest day, he's got a nice lead now, and looks like he will take even more time on the other mountain top finishes.. that is, as long as he doesn't fade in the third week, as sometimes happens with him. Pinot is also looking good, TomDum isn't at the top of his game clearly, but he only shipped a few seconds today on a very tough finish and he'll take a lot of time of those around him in the TT. Chaves has to be considered a real danger now too, and Pozzo is still within a minute, the last of the five who are within a minute of Yates. Carapaz is a genuine danger now, and Bennett still isn't out of it either.
Yates's win was a nice 7pt return, I think we were unlucky with Formolo too though, as he was looking really strong, but just at the crucial moment he got caught behind a fading Lopez who let the wheel go and suddenly there were about 4 bike lengths to make up.. he went for it but just couldn't close the gap and finished 6th. Pinot was impressive again chasing home Yates, as was Chaves in 3rd, who moved in to 2nd in the GC, M-S with a 1-2 right now from their two main men.
The matchbets weren't great, the Henoa double won but the others were disappointing, but we still finished ahead by 2pts on the day, to make it almost a flat first third of the race, a bit disappointing but we'll press on, it's been a tough start to the race for everyone from what I can make out.. A lot of the other bets are looking ok though, so I'm confident we'll still finish ahead.
The Route
A very long stage of 239kms, especially for the day after the rest day, that takes them north-west up the Appenines, and it's a challening stage right from the get-go, with the road climbing more or less from kilometer 0. After 5kms they start on the first categorised climb of the day, the Fonte Della Creta, a Cat 2 climb that is long at 15.7kms, and averages 5.8%, with sections in there hitting 7-9%. It's a great launching pad for a strong break, they could have 3-4 mins lead over the top.
A 28km descent takes them to the foot of the second categorised climb of the day, which barely looks like a ripple on the profile, but it is 7.3kms at an average of 4.5%. The next 110kms are rolling, wavy, tiring terrain with barely a flat kilometre along the way. The road then starts to rise up again from the 170km mark, for the next 30kms, until they reach the Cat 4 climb at Annifo.
From there there is less than 30kms to go to the finish, of which 12kms are a descent off the climb, and then 18kms of a flattish run to the finish. If there is a small group come to the finish together they have to navigate a tricky last 1500m. With about 1200m to go they take a 90 degree right, 50m later a ninety degree left, then another two 90 degree turns before hitting the finishing straight, which curves gently to the left and is 750m long.
Route Map
Profile
Fonte Della Creta
Finish Map
Contenders and Favourites
This is an interesting stage, because it looks like one that could be perfect for the break, but it will be a tough break to get in to with the climb at the start, and it's not so much about climbing ability from then on, rather power and strength, given it's such a long stage and it's such a tough rolling profile from then on. I think we will see the likes of Tony Martin trying to give it a go today, he tried to go on stage 8, but the peloton were having none of it, but now he has lost so much time and it's the day after a rest day, the peloton might be happier to let him have his fun tomorrow.
Others that could be in the mould of Martin, with lots of power for a day like today? Well Tim Wellens could try again, and that final climb with 30kms to go could be one that sees him attack for the win. Mads Pedersen is one who might like this terrain too, his performances in the equally-long Dwars Door and Flanders would suggest that he'll like a stage like this, and if he gets to the finish in a small group, he'd have a great chance in the sprint.
Victor Campanaerts is another who could fancy it, to get in some top spinning ahead of the TT the week after.. He was ambitious in the early stages but has disappeared since then, a 'rest day' today on the climb and another rest day on Monday and he could be ready to go again. We could also see maybe Nico Roche give it a go, he's been very quiet so far in this race, and has lost a lot of time.. But he might wait for later in the race in some of the hillier stages.
Luis Leon Sanchez is another who could fancy this stage now, he is over 14mins down and has plenty of room now to go on the attack. And with Lopez's bid maybe faltering a little, Sanchez could be given the nod to go for stage wins. He could go in the break, but also, if he doesn't, if the break are reeled in near the finish he could attack on the final climb to Annifo and charge down the descent to the finish.
The bookies seem to think that the sprinters do have a chance of making it to the finish, with Elia Viviani as the 8/1 favourite, but I can't have him.. The chase is going to be hard to pull a break back in over this terrain, and it will probably be that we see the other teams let QuickStep do all the work.. So they could be let thin of a leadout train at the finish again like the last sprint. Also, I don't even know if Viviani can get over that final climb, we'll see EF Cannondale and Bora looking to get rid of him.
Sam Bennett could well hang in there though and we might see him take his second stage win of the Giro, he was superb in the last sprint and Bora will have some strong guys still to look after him despite the loss of Selig. Sacha Modolo too will have a big chance, he might have an even better chance of hanging in there if the pace is really hot over that final climb. And if it does come to a sprint finish, I fancy his chances after a long and lumpy stage like this.
I can't have Visconti, Mohoric and Ulissi, they are too short for me but Battaglin and Bonifazio may well be there at the finish too, they are both riding well and can hang in there if it gets really hard on the final climb. Max Schachmann has been riding so well too that you can't discount him, he could well take another top 10 finish here.
So a really hard stage to call, the rest day might have an impact on some, others will be plotting their next moves. Hopefully the break radar will be working a bit better this time, it's been a bit off so far, there have been some strange breaks and a lack of the usual suspects getting involved. And I'll give Modolo another shot at a stage win given this run in, he might be the best sprinter left.
Update - 14/5/2018, 18.55: I was speaking to a LottoNL rider today who follows me (and likes a bet on the cycling!) and he reckons Koen Bouwman will be trying again tomorrow to get in the break.. He also pointed me in the direction of this interview - https://www.ad.nl/giro/koen-bouwman-gaat-voor-etappewinst~a72abfcc/ where he basically says that he's going to try again tomorrow, that he loved being on the attack the other day and thinks he is capable of another big ride. Would be rude not to have an interest at 50/1. PS, I hope to have something up on Stage 11 later on tonight too to get you thinking about it, if you beat me to the prices on them, that's ok with me!
Recommendations:
0.5pts e/w on Sacha Modolo at 16/1 with Bet365
1pt win on Luis Leon Sanchez at 12/1 with Will Hill
0.4pts win on Tony Martin at 40/1 with Bet365
0.2pts win on Victor Campanaerts at 200/1 with Bet365
0.3pts win on Mads Pedersen at 80/1 with Bet365
0.3pts e/w on Koen Bouwman at 50/1 with Bet365
Matchbets
Bennett to beat Viviani - 2pts at 11/8
Pedersen to beat Debuscherre, LL Sanchez to beat Conti and Modolo to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 2.1/1
Venturini to beat Gibbons - 2pts at 5/6
