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Published on Friday, 25 May 2018 23:12

Giro d'Italia St 20

Susa to Cervinia

Saturday 26th May, 214kms 

The penultimate stage, and what a stage they have saved right for the end of the race.. The Queen stage across the Alps with three brutal climbs coming in the last 84kms, climbing and descending over 4,000m. 

Over 50kms of climbing in the last 84kms, there's no hiding place in this final challenge in the mountains.. Froome probably will just ride to the finish defending his lead, Dumoulin has to attack now, we could have another incredibel day in store. As we saw today, it ain't over till it's over. 

Stage 19 Preview

I don't know. I just don't know where to start or what to make of that. I suspected Yates might blow up, hope some of you took the 7/4 on him not to finish on the podium.. I managed to lay a bit at 1.4 on Betfair, but not nearly enough, I should have taken the 7/4 eh. That was just astonishing today, Yates blowing up on the Finestre as soon as Sky started putting the hurt on, and losing THIRTY EIGHT MINUTES.

Chris Froome going from 80kms out and putting a minute on the chasers alone on the descent.. Dumoulin losing time hand over first until the clock reached 3'31", and going from being comfortably in pink to being 40" behind him at the finish. Dumoulin fighting and fighting, but getting almost no help, and then being mugged for the 6" at the finish. 

Domenico Pozzovivo going from solid and strong to being tailed off with a long way to go and losing 8'29" by the finish and sliding from 3rd to 6th. Riders losing bucketloads of time all over the place, Lopez and Carapaz being total pricks and not helping again in the chase, bickering over the white jersey, Carapaz sprinting away from them at the death to steal 11" on Lopez.

And Lopez.. drifting off the back at the bottom of the Finestre, looking like he was in big trouble, to suddenly being one of the few guys who could go with Dumoulin and Pinot when they tried to catch Vroome, and taking 4th place on the stage. It was another bizarre day, another shit day of punting and I can't wait for the Giro to be over to be honest.

Dumoulin would have been a big winner for me, but I did manage to lay out all my stake and more at around 1.3 when Yates was going out the back door today, I could green up for about a 3pts profit on Froome, as I was trading Yates and Dumoulin and Froome, but I might just leave it, this crazy Giro could see Froome suffer another day like the day after Zoncolan tomorrow and TomDum could nick it at the death. It's been that crazy a race, I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if it happened, and Froome loses so much time, Lopez moves on to the podium.. 

So far this week we've had Yates trade to a price of around 1/4, Tom Dum trade to around 1/4 today and Chris Froome come from a high of 130 on Betfair to being 1/5 now to win the race. An incredible rollercoaster, and if you took my advice when I said that the insiders were backing Froome and believing in Froome at the start of the week, I hope you got some nice prices on him.. Because some will have taken a plunge at 20s, 30s, 50s etc and will be delighted with how today went. 

The Route

The stage starts in Susa and the first 130kms could lull some in to thinking this will be an easy, flat stage as they roll along the valleys towads Samone and Verrés. But at Verrés the complexion of the stage changes completely, with a brutally hard last 84kms, taking in three Cat 1 climbs, culminating in the 18km ascent to Cervinia, finishing on the base of the Matterhorn mountain.

The first climb of the Col Tsecore starts after 130kms and is 16kms long at an average of 7.7%, with some steeper parts later in the climb, between 11 and 14kms it average over 11%. A 20km descent takes them to Chatillon and 5kms later they start on the second climb of the day, the Col Saint Pantaléon, another brute that averages 7.2% over 16.5kms. This climb is more steady and regular, but averages closer to 9% for the final 2kms. 

Then a shorter but tricky 10km descent takes them to Antey Saint-André and the foot of the final climb to Cervinia. This climb is longer at 18kms long, but slightly easier at 5.2% average. It is a very irregular gradient though that pitches and falls, with sections around 7-8% and other sections around 2%.. The road passes through two tunnels in the last 6kms and the gradient eases off over the last 2kms, dropping to around 1.2%, but the final straight of 450m rises up at 4% to the line. 

Contenders

Well, who knows what's going to happen tomorrow.. TomDum needs to attack, Froome needs to defend, and all the others just need to try to take the last opportunity to win a stage. But has anyone the energy? They were all battered to death today, riders like Alex Dowsett were complaining about just how hard it was, he said it made Zoncolan look like a rest day. Not many will have energy left, but the one thing that might help a break get away and stay away is that Sky will probably not drive it, Mitchelton-Scott have had the stuffing knocked out of them and have nothing to ride for now, and Sunweb are frankly unable to. 

Sky would also probably like for the break to go and take any bonus seconds, as Dumoulin would need every second he can tomorrow. Better for the break to take off and take the stage and for Sky to just ride an easy tempo behind until they hit the mountains. If the break can get an 8-10 min lead again they might just hang on. But the break needs strong climbers, and I wouldn't be surprised to see our usual suspects up there again.

There don't seem to be many guys left with the strength to go on the attack, and not many will be strong enough to be able to get over those three climbs and hang on for the win from a charging GC battle behind. The bookies have made Mikel Nieve favourite for tomorrow, and I assume that's just because a few known accounts have had a few quid on him and now that Yates is out of it, he might get a chance to attack. 

But it really is a pin-sticker day, the prices are all over the place and it's impossible to predict what will happen again. Froome could well ride away from them all, Dumoulin could go mental tomorrow and try to blow up the race himself, Lopez or Carapaz could attack each other repeatedly and not really get anywhere, Pinot might rescue a stage win at the death like he did on stage 20 of the Giro last year, Ciccone might get in the break and hang on, Luis Leon might finally get in a break that actually gets let go, Ben Hermans, Robert Gesink, Michael Woods, Diego Ulissi and so many more might finally pull their finger out and actually do something in this race. But I wouldn't hold my breath. 

It'll probably come down to a GC battle again, the 12/1 on Froome might look a very nice price tomorrow afternoon if he decides to just ride away from them all again, but I've a feeling we might see a small group come to the finish together and we could see Pinot outsprint the others on that flattish run-in to the line.. He's been looking a bit better lately and he could make history repeat itself with a sprit win on the last mountain stage of the race again this year. And Davide Formolo is another I want a small bet on as he is a reasonable price and rode pretty well today, despite being one of those blown out the back door by Froome.. He might like this finish too. 

And a few dart throws for the break, the break might be let have a lot of rope tomorrow and it would be a shame to see the break win again and not have a go at trying to pick some of the usual suspects..

Recommendations:

1pt e/w on Thibaut Pinot at 10/1 with Will Hill

0.5pts e/w on Davide Fomolo at 40/1 with WillHill 

0.4pts win on Gianluca Brambilla at 37/1 with Betfair

0.6pts win on Luis Leon Sanchez at 23/1 on Betfair 

0.25pts e/w on Ruben Plaza at 80/1 with 365

0.25pts win on Joe Dombrowski at 75s on Betfair (take down to 60s, plenty there)

Matchbets

Brambilla to beat Hermans - 2pts at evens

Formolo to beat Bennett, Dombrowski to beat Carthy and Pinot to beat Pozzo - 2pts at 7/4

Carapaz to beat Lopez - 2pts at 11/10