- Details
- Published on Friday, 13 April 2018 18:01
Amstel Gold Race
Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt
Sunday 15th April, 261kms
The 53rd running of the Amstel Gold Race starts in Maastricht Sunday, as focus switches from the cobbles of Flanders and northern France to first the hills of Holland, and then the Ardennes, culminating in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week.
As always, it's a quality field lining up for this race, so many riders who are in with a chance of victory, depending on how it goes on the day. In fact, I'd say it's one of the strongest lineups they've ever had here and one of the strongest lineups for a one-day race in quite a while.
This is always a good race, the course is very challenging with a lot of climbing, narrow, dangerous roads and a long distance of 261kms. They have stuck with the major change to the finish of the race they introduced last year which means we won't see them take on the Cauberg on the last lap, as used to be the case. Instead of heading straight on towards the base of the Cauberg with 5kms to go, they now turn off instead and go through some really small roads which is supposed to try to encourage late attacks.
This is a relatively new race on the 'Classics' calendar, first run in 1966, but it is now the most important race in the Netherlands in the whole year. There may be some debate as to whether a race as young as this is entitled to call itself a 'Classic', but it is one of the key races of the season, especially for the 'Ardennes' specialists and kicks off the trilogy of races that also includes Fleche-Wallone on Wednesday and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week.
It's a tough course littered with 35 climbs that usually suits the punchier types more than outright climbers and sprinters, as a look at recent winners shows. There's over 4,000 metres of climbing in all, who said Holland was flat?!
We had a satisfying return to winning ways in Brabantse Pijl on Wednesday, with Tim Wellens leading home a 1-2 for us with Colbrelli coming home the best of the rest 9" behind Wellens. It was a superb race for Lotto-Soudal, hats off to them, as they absolutely nailed it. Tosh Van Der Sande attacked early with Jack Haig and they had them all panicked behind as they built up a lead of over 30" with about 30kms left to go.
Jelle Vandendert was promient, Maxime Monfort did his turn as well to keep things under control, and Benoot and Wellens were anonymous until the last 10kms. Vanendert punctured with about 15kms to go, looked all over for him, but no, he got back on, went straight to the front and attacked with 11kms to go. He brought a little group with him that included Lindeman, Serry, Gasparotto, Wellens and Verona. Then, with just under 7kms to go, Wellens attacked hard, and no one wanted to go after him. And once again we saw a strong rider just ride away from a bunch of squabbling, over-tired babies! No one wanted to chase, and the lack of a chase from BMC, QSF or Fortuneo was disappointing for their men also.
Wellens just time-trialled to the finish, and behind, Teuns finally started doing something for BMC on the final climb, but it was all too late. Colbrelli easily took the sprint for 2nd, he and his team will be ruing a missed opportunity as they had been superb all day in trying to control it for him, with Grega Bole and Enrico Gasparotto in particular doing stellar work. So a profitable day then, with the matchbet double and treble coming in, but unfortunately Vanendert's efforts in helping Wellens win for us saw him roll home behind Verona, and Bob Jungels blew up in the last few kms to blow the four-fold.
Recent winners
Last year's race saw a very strong Michal Kwiatkowski play with the opposition a few times on earlier climbs before finally attacking hard with 5.3kms to go.. Philippe Gilbert went after him, but again, we saw the rest of the group look at each other and pass the buck.. and they were away. The finish was incredible though, as Kwiatkowski jumped early and seemed to have it wrapped up, gaining about 2 bike lengths with 100m to go, but he tied up badly and Gilbert came past him with ease in the last 20m.
2016 was another strange finish when Enrico Gasparotto attacked hard on the Cauberg, passed a tiring Tim Wellens and Michael Valgren came across to him. Behind, they all looked at each other again, and just let Gasparotto cruise to victory ahead of Valgren.. Colbrelli powered home in the sprint to take 3rd.
2015 saw Gilbert and Matthews attack quite early on the Cauberg with 2.5kms to go and get a small gap, but Kwiatkowski and Costa came after them. By the top of the steeper part of the Cauberg Valverde and a small group including Dan Martin, Gallopin and Alaphilippe joined them to make a group of 17 which fought out the sprint finish. Matthews and Gilbert payed for their earlier exertions though and Kwiatkowski outsprinted them to his first win in the Rainbow Jersey.
Gilbert won it in 2014 with a powerhouse attack at the bottom of the Cauberg, attacking away from Simon Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski. He held it all the way to the line with indecision and fatigue holding the chasers back. Jelle Vanendert attacked out of the chasing group to take a commendable second.
Romain Kreuziger won in 2013 after an audacious attack from the remnants of the break he was in, just as the peloton were about to make the catch with 7km to go. Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg with Gerrans and Valverde in pursuit, but even though he rode his legs off they were swamped on the line and Gilbert ended up in 5th place, with Valverde hanging on for 2nd from Gerrans.
The Route
The race starts in Maastricht and heads north crossing the river Maas and although the finish to the route might be slightly different to the past, but it's a typical Amstel Gold course with multiple loops around the Limburg area of the Netherlands. It's 12kms longer than last year's course and has one more climb this year, making it 35 in total. They only do the Cauberg three times though, the final passage of the Cauberg comes with 18kms still to go.
The first part of the course, the blue line on the map below, takes them north and east away from Maastricht and before they reach the second part of the race on the loops around the finish they will have passed four climbs, none of which are too hard at all, around 4% average, but the Berseweg is one of the longer hills of the day at 2.7kms. It's too early in the race to have any impact on the result though.
They then head on to the green loop, passing over the Cauberg for the first of three passes and through the finish line, before heading to the south-eastern-most point of the race. Here they go on to a little loop and do three more hills, including the Camerig, the longest hill of the day at 4.4kms (avg 4.4%).
They then head back north and rejoin the blue route temporarily, once again taking them over the Cauberg and on to the red loop. This loop also races on some of the previous roads but cuts a tighter circle than the green route. It does take them over the Bemelerberg for the first time though, which is 900m at 4.5%, but is significant in that it's the last hill they will climb on the final lap as they have cut out the Cauberg.
The Cauberg used to play a huge part in deciding the winner as its 800m distance averages 6.5% but hits a max of 12.8%. This year, as its last passage comes some 18kms from the finish, it might still help decide the winner, but possibly because a small group will get away, from where the winner will come from. The hills carry on coming thick and fast, with the St. Remigiusstraat Huls one of the toughest - 900m at an average of 7.8% with a max of 10.7%. The Eyserbosweg, which they hit with less than 30kms to go, is the steepest of the day, averaging 9.3% for 900m, hitting a max of 17%.. and just before that they have the Kruisberg which averages 8.8% for 600m, with a max of 15.5%
The final circuit, the black one, is just 16 kilometers, and course director Leo van Vliet makes a change in 2018. “With this change in the final of the Amstel Gold Race we search for more narrow roads to make it harder to control the race for the bunch”; according to Van Vliet. After the climb of the Geulhemmerberg the bunch will not descend on the wide road of the Rasberg towards Maastricht, but the descent of the Kuitenbergweg that is parallel to the Rasberg towards the district Amby (Maastricht).
Once down the descent, they ride via the Molenweg and the Peutgensweg to cross the Rasberg towards Bemelen. After the climb of the Bemelerberg they won't go straight on, passing the famous windmill of Wolfshuis, but take a left turn in the village Gasthuis towards Terblijt. The route continues via the Rijnsbergerweg to end up at the Sibberweg again for the last kilometre. “In 2017 we saw that a simple change in the route led to a more attractive race. With this new change the contenders for the victory have to find a good position before they enter the final or already left the bunch on an attack”; says Leo van Vliet.
Route Map
Profile
Last Lap Video
The Hills of Amstel Gold
Contenders and Favourites
Peter Sagan hadn't originally planned to do this race, but has added it to his calendar now. And of course he has been installed as the 5/1 favourite, because he's Peter Sagan. Sagan just seemed to win with so much ease on Sunday, it was pretty impressive. He just increased the watts a bit, rolled off the front on a normal tarmac section of road, got a gap and accelerated away. Then held off a strong chasing pack for over 50kms. Phenomenal.
But he comes in to this race for the first time since 2013, when he finished down the field in 36th place. But look a little further and you'll see that he finished 3rd the year before, not a bad result, but he really could have won it. As they chased down Oscar Freire on the Cauberg Gilbert attacked and took Sagan and Gasparotto with him. They caught and passed Freire, Sagan launched his sprint with about 100m to go, but somehow Gasparotto came past him in the last 20m to win it. (below, jump to 22' to see the last 1500m or so)
So why hasn't he come here since? Well he tends to have planned his campaigns since then around winning the cobbled Classics races, and he has now won the Ronde, Paris-Roubaix, E3, Gent Wevelgem, KBK and Brabantse Pijl since then. So what's next to win? Well, how about Amstel Gold? It looks like he might have been peaking a little later this year than usual, with sub-par showings in some of the Flanders races, but then peaking in Paris-Roubaix. If that's the case and he comes here reaching peak power, then the others better watch out.
There is a lot of climbing of course in this race, but nothing he can't handle really if on a good day. But what are the stats like for riders who have won Roubaix, who go on to win Amstel? Well the last man to do so was Jan Raas, 36 years ago. The only other riders to do the double in the same year were two riders you might have heard of, Eddie Merckx ('72) and Bernard Hinault ('81). Johan Museeuw also won both these races, but in different years.. So the stats are against him, but Sagan could legitimately take a place at a top table of greats with the likes of Merckx, Hinault and Museeuw.
How will the new finish suit him though? He doesn't have the Cauberg any more to mash up and burn the others off his wheel, it's the flatter and tricky finish, similar to the one we saw Gilbert and Kwiat stay away on last year. And maybe that's why he's decided to come - he saw that result last year and thought - "I can take those guys, no problem". And you wouldn't put it past him.
Alejandro Valverde is one of three riders who are priced at 6/1 depending on which bookie you look at, along with Philippe Gilbert and Michal Kwiatkowski, last year's 1st and 2nd. Valverde couldn't deal with the accelerations by Kwiatkowski and Gilbert in the closing kilometres and stayed with the main pack, finishing eventually in 19th place. His record here is pretty damn impressive though, as you'd expect, with two 2nds, a 3rd, 4th and 6th place, but he's never won it.. Always found some too good for him. Incredibly though, he's won 50 percent of all Ardennes Classics since 2014!
Surprisingly beaten in the sprint in 2015 by Kwiat, beaten in the sprint for 3rd by Gerrans in 2014 behind Gilbert, he 'won' the sprint in 2012 ahead of Gerrans but they had let Kreuziger escape. So lots of close shaves for him, but it's one race that has so far eluded him. He did DDV a few weeks back to practice the cobbles for the TDF, but ended up shaping the race and finishing 11th overall. He then went on to win the GP Miguel Indurain and then just last weekend, let his team-mate Andrey Amador win the Klasika de Amorbieta, after the two of them had ridden away from everyone else.
And of course Valverde has been on fire so far in other races this year - six wins and he's also won every stage race he's entered this year, namely Catalunya, Abu Dhabi and Valenciana. 4th in Strade Bianche, his spring Classics campaign really starts now though, and he'll be gearing up for a shot at his 5th win in Fleche Wallone on Wednesday. And it's a properly powerful squad they have here to support him, with Andrey Amador, Carlos Betancur, Winner Anacona, Emanol Erviti and Jorge Arcas. He will need to stick close to Kwiat, Sagan and Gilbert when the key moves are made, and if he can get to the finish with a small group then he has a chance of outsprinting them.
Michal Kwiatkowski is a former winner of this race, outsprinting Valverde in 2015, and as we know was an unlucky 2nd to Gilbert last year - but he's also finished 4th ('13) and 5th ('14) so clearly likes this race a lot. He was in great form this time last year and was visibly one of the strongest guys in the race from a long way out. With just under 29kms to go he attacked on the Keutenberg and pulled a select group with Haas, Gilbert, Albasini, Rojas, Ion Izagirre and Henao. Then with 6.4kms to go he attacked again, Gilbert went after him, but Haas and the rest stalled, waiting for someone else to chase.
He followed that last year with 7th in La Fleche and 3rd in LBL, went quiet during the summer but popped up again to win in San Sebastian before tamely ending his season with 3 DNFs. Before Amstel last year he had won just two races - but they were Strade Bianche and MSR.. This year he has two wins to his name as well, but they were just two stages in the Algarve, but he has won the overall in the Algarve and Tirreno. Significantly though he was well off the pace in Strade and only 11th in MSR, and looked tired to me in Flanders, where some fancied his chances. He left the Pais Vasco on stage 6, saying that he had 'built enough fatigue before Ardennes, so time to rest'. He had finished 3rd in the sprint finish of stage 4 and 4th in the TT on stage 5, 20" behind Roglic.
So what about his chances here? Well, I think he's not in the same condition he was this time last year, but I've got it wrong with Kwiat before, he's a very hard guy to read. His form seems to rise and fall almost depending on his mood and it's hard to know from one race to the rest how he's going to go. He's got Henao and Poels with him, they could go well too (Henao was 6th last year) and you'd have to think he'll be there or thereabouts though, but I'm not all that interested in him at 7/1. Woet Poels has never gone well here in the past though, the 66/1 on him is about right.
Philippe Gilbert was a stylish winner last year, very prominent in all the key moves with Kwiat late in the race and found the strength from somewhere in the last 50m to come by a tiring Kwiat. No wins yet this season for Gilbert, despite being fancied for quite a few races, he was no match for Sagan in Roubaix and couldn't stay with the GVA or the Naesen groups either, eventually finishing 15th, over 3 mins down. 3rd in Flanders though was a good result, and we saw last year just how much he likes this new finishing circuit, he looked very good.
Second in the rankings for the most wins in this race with four, one behind Jan Raas, he'd dearly like to become the joint record holder and cement his place as one of the greatest Ardennes riders of the modern era. QSF have a very strong team with him here, with Julian Alaphilippe, Enric Mas, Pieter Serry, Bob Jungels and Niki Terpstra here too. I'll come to Alaphilippe in a minute, but Mas was in great form in Itzulia, Serry looked really good in Brabantse on Wednesday, Jungels was looking good before blowing up on the last big hill and Terpstra went well in 2012 here, chasing Freire on his own with a trademark attack in the closing stages, only to be reeled in and passed on the Cauberg.
Julian Alaphilippe missed this race last year after injuring himself in Pais Vasco, he didn't return to racing for over three months. Before that though he finished 6th and 7th the previous two years, finishing in the main sprints of the day. His attacking style is similar to Kwait's and Gilbert's and he could be a big player in this race too. We've seen QSF punch and counter-punch in several races already this year, and it might be we see them try something similar here with Gilbert and Alap.
Winner of the first two stages in Pais Vasco in tremendous style, he went in to the final stage in 4th place in the GC, but blew up badly on the tough Cat 1 climb to Arrate, finishing over 17 mins down and sliding down to 35th in the GC. It was a good prep for this race though, there are lots of little hills like on stage 1 and 2 and no Cat 1s! He will be looking forward to this race, but how much will he give it here compared to trying to save his legs for a crack at La Fleche on Wednesday, a race he's finished 2nd in twice in 2016 and 2015? It's going to be hard for him to get away solo, but he'd fancy his chances against a lot of the climber types in a reduced sprint.
Michael Matthews is too low in the betting for me, I think the nature of the course now makes it harder for it to be a shoot out right at the death like it used to be. Before, guys like Matthews and Coquard could try to hang on for dear life up the Cauberg, knowing there was a bit of respite before a sprint finish. Now, the race is a lot more difficult from a long way out, as we saw last year, as the punchy guys know they have to shake off the likes of Matthews before the finish. He was 67th last year, and although he's been riding ok since he belatedly started his season in the Omloop, I don't think he'll be invovled in the finish.
Greg Van Avermaet was right there just behind Kwiat when he attacked on the Keutenberg last year, but just couldn't go with the better climbers when they took off, Flanders/Roubaix fatigue maybe getting to him. He settled in with Valverde and co, I guess hoping that they could pull back the leaders. He eventually came home in 11th. He's not been himself this year as I've been pointing out in all my recent previews, and I don't see how he wins a race like this, I think 10th-20th again for him.
Sonny Colbrelli as you may have guessed by now is a favourite of mine and almost did the business again for us in DBP on Wednesday, taking a fine 2nd place. 3rd in 2016, winning the sprint behind Gasparotto and Valgren, 11th last year, winning the 'sprinters' group sprint. He is tremendously durable on these tough, rolling hills and he even decided to show his good legs on Wednesday with an attack on the cobbled Ijskelderlaan climb. I think he will be involved again on Sunday and I'm keeping him onside, I'd hate to see him place at 16/1 and not be on him.
He's got a very strong team with him here too, with Vincenzo Nibali making his first appearance at the race since 2015. Nibali is in great form as we know, and now with MSR under his belt, why not try to go after a few more Classics?! I think he will be on protection duty for Colbrelli though, possibly training for LBL instead. Grega Bole was very strong on Wednesday in DBP, and the two Izagirre brothers probably have chances in their own right too, depending on how the race develops. And then you have two time winner Enrico Gasparotto too, to round out a very impressive squad.
Ion Izagirre was impressive last year, making the move of the day with Kwiat, but just got dropped in the run in and finished 4" behind the rest of his little group, taking 7th place in the process. Gorka doesn't seem to like this race as much but will be a valuable ally to the team. Enrico Gasparotto was active in DBP but it looked clear to me from early in the race that he was on team duty and chased everything down. But he showed some really strong legs and has an amazing record in this race. 3rd ('10), 1st ('12), 9th ('13), 8th ('14 & '15) and 1st in 2016, he clearly is at home on these roads. He unfortunately crashed last year with less than 30kms to go and was taken out of the race, but he looks ready to give it another go again this year.
Tim Wellens, Tiesj Benoot and Jelle Vanendert form a strong three-prong attack for Lotto-Soudal here, with all three in pretty good form. Wellens obviously showed great legs to ride away from everyone in DBP, he looked so strong and comfortable, he made it look easy. He is in great form as I said in my preview for DBP and he has gone well here in the past, attacking the pack in 2016 and holding a lead of about 15" as they hit the Cauberg, eventually finishing 10th.
He was almost anonymous in DBP until the right moment came near the end of the race, and he might have to do something similar on Sunday. Just sit in, be near the front on the Keutenberg and try to go with the attacks that will inevitably come. Then see if he can attack away again like he did in DBP. It's going to be hard, it's a quality field he's up against here, but I would be disappointed to not see him try at least.
Tiesj Benoot was nowhere to be seen for almost the whole race in DBP, but still popped up where it mattered most right at the end of the race to take 3rd place behind Colbrelli, he didn't waste too much energy at all. His attacking style has already brought him Classic success in Strade this year and had a solid set of top ten results in the Flanders races. 15th last year, he came home with the main pack, I think he'll be prominent too on Sunday and expect a top 20 from him again.
And then there's Jelle Vanendert who was very impressive in DBP, pulling at the front for a lot of the race, marshalling it at the front, puncturing and still getting back up to go on the attack just before Wellens made his move. I've backed him here before, he's finished 2nd here twice, he may be on team duty on Sunday, but if he gets the chance to join an elite selection he could have a chance of a place. And not forgetting Tomasz Marczynski, my 150/1 hero from the Vuelta last year - he was going well on Wed too but was taken out of the race with a late mechanical. He posted a picture on Twitter a few days back of his ripped calves claiming he was ready for the Ardennes, he might be the one who goes in the early break of the day.
Dylan Teuns is a back-up option for BMC, he went ok in DBP on Wed and took 7th place, but never looked like justifying his favouritism tag. He's not really got close here in the three times he has entered and I don't think he'll be involved Sunday either. Michael Valgren might just represent Astana's best chance of a result here, seeing as he has finished 2nd in 2016, but it's an interesting squad they bring here with Oscar Gatto, Omar Fraile, Jacob Fuglsang and Moreno Moser, all of which could get involved depending on how the race turns out. Winner of the OHN and 4th in Flanders, he's in great shape and loves this race. He was well off the pace last year though on the new course finish and that's enough to put me off him.
Michael Albasini is another with a good record in the Ardennes races, although the 3rd place he took last year was the first time he's finished on the podium, or even in the top 10 in the race. I'm not sure he has the legs any more to go with the likes of Kwiat, Gilbert etc though. Jay McCarthy is in good form, winning the hilly Cadel Evans race early in the season and the hilly stage 3 of Pais Vasco last week, outsprinting Kwiat and Albasini. He will find it tough to be at the front going over the Keutenberg, but if he can stay close, and get back in with a small group of 20 or so, he might have a chance in the sprint.
Nathan Haas says that this is his favourite race of the year had a great race last year, had got himself in to the race-winning move and was looking very strong, but when Gilbert and Kwiat went he hesitated, wasn't able to go with them and had to settle for fighting out the minor honours, taking 4th, behind Albasini in the sprint. He was in good form in Oman, but since then he has done nothing to suggest to me that he'll be taking a podium spot on Sunday.
In fact, I've seen tonight now that he says he's been sick for quite a while and is skipping FW and LBL to go and have some tests done.. So he's doing this race to support his team-mates, don't expect much from him.. I was hoping to take him on in matchbets, but Bet365 of course are alert to it and have not made any matchbets with him included.
Rui Costa, Dan Martin, Diego Ulissi, Daryl Impey, Jakob Fuglsang, Fabio Felline, Alexis Vuillermoz - all quite similar guys, with similar sorts of chances, their odds range from around 33/1 to 100/1. Dan Martin will have better chances in the next two Classics, Rui Costa is not the same rider he used to be and the others will struggle to go with the main move I think. Of that lot,
Daryl Impey at 100/1 with Hills paying 4 places interests me a little bit, he was 18th last year, finishing with the Colbrelli and Matthews group, and I think he is riding the best he has in a long time this year, so he might go closer. He said this today about the race too "Amstel is one of my favourite races. I have always liked it, it’s like being in an arcade game for six hours. It has so many elements to it and it isn’t so predictable which makes the race. You have to take your chance and I want to have a good result there."
Conclusion
This could be a brilliant race - so many in with chances, so many going so well. And Peter Sagan has thrown his hat in to the ring now too just to troll those who thought they might have a chance here. The weather will not be a problem, it's going to be sunny, no rain and no wind, maybe Wellens might not be so happy with that but he's still going to be a key player.
I had this preview finished on Thursday afternoon but couldn't call a winner with any confidence whatsover. I mulled it over until Friday afternoon, and I am still not convinced about any of them to be honest, it's such a difficult race to predict. I think Sagan will have a big say in the outcome of the race, and if Gilbert turns up in the form he was in last year, he'll take a lot of stopping too. Wellens looks to be in great form, and as I think a late attack could be decisive again I am going to tentatively pick him.
I'm going to also stick with Colbrelli I think, he's riding so well at the moment that he might be able to nick a place at worst, the 14/1 with Skybet paying 4 places looks ok to me, or take the 18/1 with 365 who are paying 3 places. Although my picks are a little like deja vu with Brabantse Pijl, I'm happy with that, I'm sticking with riders in form. Kwiat, Benoot, Alaphilippe and GVA will have a big part to play, and the Bahrain, Lotto Soudal, BMC and QSF are sure to dominate the front in the closing 40kms or so. It might be who just has the balls and the power to get away on the run-in and hold off another group of indecisive and reluctant chasers. I might add another bet tomorrow evening when adding my matchbets, I'm thinking about a longshot for it.
(I've now added Impey as per my rationale above, and as Hills are offering a bet boost to 117/1 it would be rude not to have some of that!)
Recommendations:
1pt e/w in Tim Wellens at 11/1 with Skybet paying 4 places
0.5pts e/w on Sonny Colbrelli at 14/1 with Skybet paying 4 places
0.3pts e/w at a boosted 117/1 with Will Hill (odds of 100/1 unboosted) on Daryl Impey paying 4 places
Matchbets:
Impey to beat McCarthy and Matthews to beat Coquard - 3pts at evens
Gilbert to beat GVA - 2pts at 8/11
Martens to beat Naesen - 2pts at 5/4
Alaphilippe to beat Martin and Canola to beat Sbaragli - 2pts at 5/4
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