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Published on Monday, 02 April 2018 13:15

Scheldeprijs 2018

Wed 4th April, 202kms

The sprinters get a chance to have some fun Wednesday in the Scheldeprijs, the traditional sprinters classic of the northern cobbled races. Marcel Kittel has dominated this race in recent years, winning it five times in total now. 

This is the 106th running of the Scheldeprijs and it's the oldest of all the Flanders races. It may not have the prestige of the the likes of the Ronde but it is a nice bridge between Flanders and Roubaix, with some riders really going for it, i.e. the top sprinters, and others just having a training run to keep the legs ticking over ahead of Sunday. 

Marcel Kittel won again last year to extend his record run to five wins, but he missed out on the chance in 2015 to make it six wins in total as he was recovering from the bug that had hit him badly that season. He's back this year to try to make it a staggering six wins in seven years (or six out of six when he's raced it) and he faces up against an in-form Elia Viviani who followed him home in 2nd place last year. 

This year's edition sees only some of the best sprinters in the world do battle, not a great turnout of sprinters, considering it's referred to as the 'Sprinters Classic'. Joining Kittel and Viviani are Dylan Groenewegen and Arnaud Démare, but there's no Greipel, Bouhanni, Coquard, Bennett, Modolo, Colbrelli, Kristoff, Gaviria or Degenkolb.. Maybe they just think it's a waste of time and energy trying to stop Kittel here.. 

Tour of Flanders Review

Where do you even start? With Quickstep I guess, what another superb performance by them, and yet another winner (and 3rd place). I'll have to watch the race again on TV as it is hard to see everything that is going on when watching on a 6-inch screen on the Kwaremont, but it sure looked pretty brutal out there. Lots of crashes, lots of broken men coming past us last time up, and even the second time up.. Terpstra does what Terpstra does best and just rode away from them all on a spot that was only about 1km away from where he and Kristoff rode away from everyone in 2014. And it was the same spot almost exactly where Anna Van Der Breggen rode away to secure her win in the Women's race.

As for the rest of them? Lots of disappointing performances you could say, to not make more of a race of it, but they were clearly all shattered. Peter Sagan bemoaned the fact that no one would cooperate with him in the group, and I can see why he did. We saw yet another example of riders letting someone just ride away from them and happy to settle for a top 10 place rather than put in the effort and go for broke.

Sagan himself looked incredibly relaxed and comfortable to me each time they passed bar the last, and what I saw of him out on the course he looked to be moving around with ease and watching everything that was going on. But again, he can't chase everything. You could say he was to blame for Terpstra getting away though, as Terpstra attacked he went to the front, shaped like he was going to go after him, but then swung over and stopped.. and Terpstra was away. Nibali looked good for all of about a minute, until Niki Terpstra rode away from a Grand Tour, Lombardia and MSR winner on a gentle 5% hill... 

Van Avermaet continues to look underpar, he was way back each time bar the last on the Kwaremont (some would say the only time he needs to be at the front), but I thought his positioning was poor all race and he didn't really show much again. Gilbert will be happy with his ride I think to take 3rd considering, but will be going full gas next Sunday I think again. Oli Naesen was unlucky getting caught up in that big crash that cost him a lot of energy, and Vamarcke had more bad luck again with two crashes. Tiesj Benoot pushed hard on the Kwaremont, but by then it was too late. 

What a ride by Mads Pedersen though, the youngest podium finisher at 22 years of age in four decades. He was up the road when Terpstra blasted past him on the Kwaremont and it would have been understandable if he'd capitulated and got reeled in by the chasers, but he didn't he held his gap all the way to the line. Gilbert jumped away with Valgren to fill out the places, Valgren landing the 66/1 if you backed him with the bookies paying 4 places. 

Kristoff, Démare and Degenkolb looked good for a while, Kristoff just losing touch at the top of the Kwaremont, they both will prefer the flatter roads of France next weekend. Honourable mentions too for Wout Van Aert who finished in the top 10 in his first Flanders and Nibali who finished 24th, only just over a minute back on Terpstra. 

The Route

After last year's route was changed to honour Tom Boonen, it's another new route for the race this year, but it maintains the general theme of Scheldeprijs races, in that it is almost totally flat. They start this time west of Antwerp in Terneuzen in southern Netherlands and head north across the water to Middelburg, looping around to the north of the peninsula, through Yerseke, on through Ossendrecht and south to the finishing loop which they start after 150kms, and then go on to complete three laps of a finishing circuit of 16.8kms. 

8.3kms in to the finishing circuit they pass over a cobbled stretch, the Broekstraat, which is 1700m long, but isn't too difficult, it shouldn't cause too many problems. There is one sharp left turn with 800m to go, but then it's pretty straight to the finish line, no excuses for the sprinters. 

With a lot of these riders pencilled in to do Paris-Roubaix on Sunday too, most will be just hoping to get home unscathed with some good training in the legs.

Contenders and Favourites

Well, the first thing to note about tomorrow is the weather and the potential impact it might have on the race.. There is rain forecast more or less all day, not heavy, but still, enough to probably cause problems. And not only that, but there is a lot of wind going to be whipping around, 15-17mph in the afternoon.. And when they are out on the peninsula it will be a strong cross-wind gusting at them early in the race, and we could see lots of echelons and splits that may cause absolute havoc.. It will be a cross/headwind on the way to Schoten, which could hinder a break's chances, but how many will be in the peloton as they hit the final circuit?

Marcel Kittel - who can stop him? A record five wins already in this race, he's won it every year he's entered it, bar 2011, but he can be excused for finishing 36th that year, he was only 22 after all. He's won this race with Argos Shimano, Giant Shimano, Quickstep and now goes to win it with Katusha. He's had good leadouts with QSF, his leadout here will be pretty strong too with Tony Martin, Marco Haller, Nils Politt, Mads Wurtz and Rick Zabel, and he's good at surfing other team's trains too if his falls apart.... sometimes...

I say sometimes, because sometimes if can go all pear-shaped for him too, he has a habit of losing his train from time to time, or you could say, the Katusha train has a habit of just disappearing.. His season started in pretty disastrous style, by his standards anyway, with no stage wins in the Dubai Tour or in Abu Dhabi, being beaten by Mark Cavendish and Nacer Bouhanni when 3rd in Dubai and by Phil Bauhaus when 2nd in Abu Dhabi.

But he came back with a bang in Tirreno-Adriatico with two stages wins in the two sprint stages, beating Sagan both times. Sounds good.. but the reality is there really wasn't a lot to beat in Tirreno, Gaviria was the only real competition, and he managed to box himself in in the first sprint and crashed in the run-in for the second sprint. And he really should be beating Modolo, Nizzolo, Debuscherre, Sagan and Grosu in sprints.

So.. Some good signs, some bad, what will we get Wednesday? Well it has seemed in recent years that he only has to turn up to win this race, and there really isn't much competition this year, in terms of numbers anyway.. It's all about pure speed on the long run to the line, and Kittel has it in spades usually.. it'll be all about good positioning, and then getting out to make a b-line to the finish. With not too many out and out sprinters in the race, he shouldn't run in to too much difficulty. That is of course, as long as he is still there and hasn't got dropped in the cross-winds earlier in the race, which actually is quite a possibility knowing Kittel, and that's probably why he's 9/4 and not something like evens, which I thought he'd be.

He has two big dangers though in the limited field of sprinters that are here, in Arnaud Démare and Dylan Groenewegen. Arnaud Démare will be using this as a prep race for Sunday's Paris-Roubaix I'd say, after a fine 15th place in Flanders last weekend. He has been in good form in recent weeks, taking 2nd in KBK (behind DG), a stage win in Paris-Nice on the uphill sprint, 3rd in MSR and GW and then the good showing in Flanders. He was right up there with the leaders heading in to the final 20kms, looking like a possible danger, but like Kristoff and Degenkolb he ran out of gas when the pressure was really applied on the last time up the Kwaremont, and the Paterberg. 

He will prefer this course you'd think, but his record here is pretty poor with 28th, 21st and 122nd his results here the three times he did it, but the 122nd last year was because of a big crash with just under 4kms to go that took a lot of riders out of the race, including Demare and Greipel. He will want to get a good blast in at the sprint for practice in case he is fighting for the win on Sunday in the Roubaix velodrome. On a good day for him, and a bad day for Kittel, he could well take him in a sprint, but he'll need those two eventualities to happen I think in order for him to win it. But he is almost certain of a top 3 you'd have to think, unless he backs out of things in order to save himself for Sunday.. 

Dylan Groenewegen had been in superb form as we know so far this year, winning KBK in impressive style from Demare a few weeks back.. But since then he got a bit sick at Paris Nice and abandoned before the finish, then struggled a bit in GW and DDV.. He should be fully recovered now though and seeing as he is scheduled to ride PR as well on Sunday, he'll be looking to get a good training spin in.

But you'd have to think he's far less likely to be involved in the finish than Démare on Sunday, so this should be a big target for him. He finished 9th two years ago, but he's a vastly better sprinter these days than he was back then, with a far better leadout. He was also caught up in the crash last year so only finished in 58th place, he'll be definitely looking to go head to head with Kittel this year. And he is more likely to survive in the cross-winds and echelons than some I think. 

After that you really are starting to head in to the second division of sprinters.. But one rider who looks like he could be looking for promotion from the second division to the first is the young sensation Fabio Jacobsen from Quickstep. 4th in Dwars Door West Vlaanderen was impressive enough, but he followed that up with a powerful win in Nokere Koerse up the hill.. That was a pretty weak field though to be fair and he got a good run through when a lot of others faltered and hesitated..

To see him as 3rd favourite at just 11/1 was a bit of a surprise though to me, it's not like he's got a long palmares of wins in this sort of company.. He did take 8 victories last year though in the lower ranks and U23 type races, but this is a big step up and that price is a bit silly to me. 

Phil Bauhaus started well this season with an incredible win in stage 3 of Abu Dhabi when he beat Kittel, Ewan, Viviani, Greipel and Kristoff.. He also finished 2nd, 4th and 6th in stages of the TDU, and 4th in stage 2 of Paris Nice before also getting sick and abandoning.. He also struggled when he returned to action with a DNF in E3 and DDV, I'm not sure I want to be backing him until I see him notch a few decent places first. 

Jens Debusschere could have a chance if things go awry for some of the favourites, he took two 5th places recently in De Panne and GW, so he's not going too badly at the moment, but he's definitely a level below the top 3 guys here. 

Pascal Ackerman was 5th last year in this, and has been stepping up to the plate lately when given the opportunity to shine outside of races including Sagan and Bennett.. 3rd in the Handzame behind Hodeg and Halvorsen, 2nd in the Driedaagse De Panne behind Viviani, and also finished 3rd twice in Abu Dhabi, beaten by Kittel and Bauhaus. He has yet to win a pro race though, lots of top tens, he should be top ten again tomorrow, but I can't see him winning it, 14/1 is a bit short for me.. 

Alvaro Jose Hodeg is another from the all-conquering Quick-Step stable that burst on to the scene this year with an impressive sprint win in the Handzame classic a few weeks back, and followed that with an even more impressive win in the first stage of Catalunya ahead of Bennett and Bouhanni. Winner of a stage in the Tour de l'Avenir last year, he also finished 2nd twice, 5th, 6th and 10th. He is a real talent, but again, like Jacobsen, do we think he can beat Kittel, Groenewegen and Démare? Unlikely. 

Max Walscheid, Adam Blythe, Kenny Dehaes, Matteo Pelucchi and Timothy Dupont could all go close as well, they'll be fighting it out for the 4th to 10th places. 

So the big question is, will it end in a sprint finish or not? Will there be splits and echelons which will take some of the sprinters out of it? Probably. I think there will be some riders who will get shelled out, but you would expect the big World Tour riders to be looked after and look after themselves, and we should see a sprint finish, but we could see some casualties. Kittel is the master of this race, but I'm worried about him this year and although his price is very tempting at 9/4, I'm going to leave it.

Instead, I think Dylan Groenewegen has a big chance to land a big win here, LottoNL should look after him, and he should be able to look after himself, and we've seen how fast he is this year. I also think that Démare is overpriced at 14/1, I think he will revel in the conditions and should be involved in the sprint, and he is capable of landing a top 3 here, possibly winning it if things fall his way.. 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Dylan Groenewegen at 5/2 with Bet365

0.5pts e/w on Arnaud Démare at 14/1 with Bet365

Matchbets

Walscheid to beat Jacobsen - 1pt at 7/4

Ackerman to beat Lawless and Debusschere to beat Blythe - 2pts at 1.3/1 with 365