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Published on Tuesday, 27 March 2018 16:13

Dwars door Vlaanderen

Wed 28th March, 181kms

A change in the calendar sees the Dwars Door move from before the E3 and GW right in to the middle of the 'Flanders Week', with the organisers hoping that the change will bring a stronger field to the startline than in the past. 

It's not a race that has often ended in a sprint, but two years ago it was 'won' by Bryan Coquard.. well at least he thought he had won the sprint, and lifted his hands in celebration, only to suddenly realise that Jens Debusschere had mugged him on the line for the win. It was back in 2011 the last time it ended in a large bunch gallop, with Nick Nuyens taking the win. In between it was solo wins or small bunch sprints that took the honours, it was very difficult to tell what kind of finish we will get from one year to another, it often depended on the weather conditions. 

Last year saw Yves Lampaert notch an impressive solo win (above), riding away from his team-mate Philippe Gilbert, Alexey Lutsenko and Luke Durbridge, with Gilbert winning the 3-man battle to make it a 1-2 for QuickStep. Groenewegen won the sprint for 5th from Naesen and Benoot. 

Niki Terpstra missed out in 2015 in his attempt to win this race for the third time in four years when on a wet and muddy day, Etixx's leader played team-man and backed off when his then team-mate Kwaitkowski went up the road. But Kwiat couldn't stop TopSport Vlaanderen landing their best result in many a race with a 1-2 thanks to Jelle Wallays and Edward Theuns. 

The race was first run in 1945 under the name Dwars Door Belgie and from 1946, for twenty years, the race was run as a two-day race before reverting back to a one day race in 1965. It's very short at just 181kms (Gent-Wevelgem is 243km), a full 19kms shorter than last year. It used to take in a lot of the roads and cobbled climbs used in the Tour of Flanders, including the Oude Kwaremont and the Paterberg and gives Flanders hopefuls a good training spin, and for others, down the pecking order, it gives them a real shot at a great result in a Belgian cobbled Classic. 

But the organisers have made it even more sprinter friendly in their effort to get more riders here - not only have they shortened the distance to 181kms, but they have removed a lot of the very difficult cobbles and hills, with no Kwaremont or Paterberg this year. They have retained the Taaienberg at least though, if there is any chance for the strong men to dump the sprinters, this is probably it, but it comes a full 53kms from the finish line.  

The race was elevated to World Tour status in 2017 and it attracted a stronger lineup than usual, and the new course and positioning on the Wednesday before the Ronde means that some of the Flanders favourites like Benoot, GVA and Naesen are using it as a final training race. And then we have the Tour de France recon ride - Nairo Quintana, Alejandro Valverde and Romain Bardet are coming this year to train on the slightly easier course ahead of the cobbled test in this year's TDF, much to the annoyance of the locals who are upset that they are treating it as a training spin.

The Route

It's a zig-zag route around Flanders, a little like the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, starting in Roeselare and taking in familiar spots like Oudenaarde, Ronse, Taaienberg, Steenbeekdries, Kruieberg and Kluisberg before finishing in Waregem. They still have 12 hellingen to get over, but they do the Knokteberg-Trieu three times and the Kluisberg twice, so it's actually just nine different hills. With just 10kms to go they hit the Nokereberg which often sees decisive moves go.

They made one change to the route last year though with the addition of a cobbled section, the Herlegemstraat just 6kms from the finish, and it's retained for this year. Although it's only 800m, a split in the group could be forced, a split that may not be closed up with just 6kms to go. It could also see some unfortunate lose his chance with a puncture or an incident. There is a sharp left with 2kms to go, then a sharp right with 1600m, another sharp right with 1200m, another easier right with 400m, then a sharp right with 300m to go, but then it's straight to the line on a pretty wide road. 

Weather Forecast

The weather forecast isn't great, with rain forecast all day and temperatures in the 6-7 degree region. The wind isn't too strong at around 7mph, coming at them in the morning from the south, but rotating around a little in the afternoon to come a bit more from the south-east. It means a head-wind for most of the day as they head south, coming at them from all angles as they roll around the hills and a bit of a tail-wind for most of the last 25kms or so. 

Contenders

The changes to the route, the shorter distance, no Kwaremont or Paterberg.. all points to a sprint finish eh? Well it does look the most likely result, so makes sense to assess the chances of the sprinters that are here first. Surprisingly though, when Ladbrokes came out with their prices first this evening, they don't really see it as likely to end in a sprint, with the sprinters down the list.. But I'm sticking to my belief about it most likely to end in a sprint.. 

Elia Viviani - devastated after finishing 2nd on Sunday, he realised that the whole team rode for him and the likes of Gilbert and Stybar buried themselves to ensure he was in with a chance of the sprint, and he blew it with bad positioning and hesitation. He admitted after that he may not get a better chance to win a Classic, but he does have a great chance of redemption of sorts in DDV tomorrow. I guess it all depends on whether QSF look to blow the race to pieces and get the likes of Terpstra, Lampaert or Stybar up the road in a race-winning break, possibly on the Taaienberg or later on. The plan agreed last weekend might have been to give Viv a chance and then someone else like Lamps or Stybar gets a chance tomorrow... 

But if the plan is to go for the sprint again to try to land a win for Viviani, then he stands a pretty good chance. A very strong team here to look after him, and if they can keep most of the team together he will at least have a pretty solid looking leadout with Richeze, Hodeg, Stybar, Keisse and Terpstra. And when he did get out eventually of his box in the sprint on Sunday, he was easily the fastest, closing the gap on Sagan rapidly as they approached the line. I didn't think he would be there at the finish on Sunday, so it showed tremendous strength and skills from him to be in the right place at the right time when push came to shove, while a lot of others lost out. And if he could be there last Sunday, then he is a lot more likely to make it to the sprint tomorrow - at 12/1 he's sure to go off shorter than that. I'd say closer to 7/1

Dylan Groenewegen - one of the favourites for last Sunday and heavily backed from 11s in to 7s, he didn't even feature in the latter part of the race. It turns out that he cramped up when going up the Kemmelberg for the final time after 216kms. He has been saying that he is more interested in working on his sprint these days and those sorts of races are less of a target for him, but this is surely a target for him now given the easier course, and the fact that he has finished 5th here before (winning a sprint for 5th). 

It is worrying that he suffered cramp, maybe he was just on a bad day and blamed cramp, this much shorter distance shouldn't be a problem for him and he is surely going to be involved this time. They have a strong team with him here too, one that could give him a strong lead-out with Roosen, Leezer and Van Poppel, he is sure to be top 3 at worst if he makes the sprint. So the 25/1 on him with Skybet has to be backed I think, it's way too big in my mind, he's 16's with Ladbrokes, and even that looks good to me. 

Trek Segafredo will be looking to John Degenkolb for the sprint, he's been riding ok, but not great lately, he couldn't stay with the decisive move when it came in GW, and came home in 48th place, but he was working hard at the front of that chase group for quite a while, good training for tomorrow. Winner and 2nd place finisher in Paris-Roubaix, but they were in his pre-crash days.. will he ever be as good as he was?

Well I've a feeling he'll turn the clock back on Sunday week in Roubaix, but in order to do so I think he really needs to feature here, with a top 6 finish. Hard to see him beating Viviani or Groenewegen though, but he has a very strong team with him here that should be able to look after him pretty good - Stuyven, Pedersen, Rast, De Koert are all strong guys, and if he can get to the sprint with De Koert still with him, he'll have one of the best leadout guys in the race to help him. He might look massive at 40/1 come tomorrow evening. 

Alexander Kristoff was left very disappointed with how GW turned out for him, he almost made the crucial split, said the distance was just one car length.. then two, then four and they were gone.. He battled valiantly with Valgren and MCN to leave the other stragglers behind and go in pursuit of the leaders, but it was always a losing battle. But it showed that he is very strong at the moment and seems to be peaking for this next week and a half. His best result here was the last time he did it back in 2013 when he finished 13th, but this new course should suit him perfectly too. He may have to take it up early and see if he can just beast it all the way to the line, he won't have the burst of speed to come late and take Viv or DG. I'm not sure he'll make podium though.. 

Lotto Soudal will be all behind Jens Debusschere, a former winner of this race of course in 2016. He rode very well in GW on Sunday, hid away well until the sprint and finished an impressive 5th, after also taking 5th place in De Panne a week ago. He has also finished 6th and 8th in this race, he should have no problem with the course or distance, these are his home roads:

 "Racing through Flanders is a very special event for me. The race starts in Roeselare, my birthplace and arrives in Waregem a few meters from my current home. I was the best last year, it makes it even more special."

He will find it hard to beat the top two sprinters here, but his motivation and local knowledge could be worth a few extra watts to him in the sprint and could be a good outsider for the 3rd spot on the podium at worst. He's 16s with Ladbrokes, but 20/1 with Skybet, and that's worth a nibble. 

And there are lots of other second division sprinters here who could get involved too. Dan McLay for EF Cannondale, Pascal Ackerman for Bora, Adam Blythe for AquaBlue, Luca Mezgec for Mitchelton-Scott, Christophe Laporte for Cofidis, Baptiste Planckaert for Katusha, Niccolo Bonifazio for Bahrain, Nik Arndt or Phil Bauhaus for Sunweb and Magnus Cort Neilsen for Astana. They will be battling for 4th to 10th place I reckon though.  

And what if it doesn't come down to a sprint finish? Well the likes of Greg Van Avermaet (or he could even do well in the sprint too..), Niki Terpstra, Oliver Naesen, Jesper Stuyven, Tiesj Benoot and Luke Durbridge are your likely lads, they are the kind of guys who could look to blow it up on the Taaienberg, or the Kruisberg or one of the cobbled sections, and are very familiar and experienced around these roads. 

Tiesj Benoot continues to impress and is a different rider now according to his DS following his win in SB, such is the confidence and belief he now has in himself, his DS thinks he can win the Ronde on Sunday.. He grew up on these roads and I think he could be one to light it up in the absence of Sagan around the Taaienberg. He also will like the cold and wet conditions more than most, as we saw in SB.

But will he be going full gas here or saving his legs for Sunday? It's a tough one for him, as he can possibly take advantage of the lack of the likes of Sagan and Vanmarcke and try to go up the road with the likes of Stybar and Naesen to win a prestigious race like this. At the same time, the big prize is Sunday.. He's just 9/1, if he was 16s or so he might be tempting.. I'll see if someone goes 16/1 or so and might put him in the bag just in case he does decide to blow it up. 

Same goes for GVA - does he want to kill himself pulling a break away with Sunday on the horizon? Does he want to get involved in a messy sprint with lower-level sprinters and risk taking a spill? I think he'll be happy to just ride around, but if the chance is there to do something, you can be sure he'll try.. he's a real racer.. The cold and wet doesn't suit him great though, another reason that I'm going to stay away from him tomorrow at just 13/2 with Lads, and definitely not the 5/1 with Skybet. 

Zdenek Stybar and Oliver Naesen are two more who could be involved in the breaks that might prevent this being a sprint finish. Zdenek Stybar I reckon was not a happy camper after GW, he looked very strong and keen to try something on several occassions, but was reined in to look after Viviani. Will he get a chance to try his luck tomorrow, or will he too be looking to Sunday's race? 14/1 is too short for me. And Oliver Naesen always goes well on these home roads, he took an impressive 6th in GW Sunday, maybe it's time he stepped on to a podium in a big race like this. Again though, 14/1?

Luke Durbridge is looking very strong and is sure to be at the front or close to it when they hit the Taaienberg, so if a move goes, expect him to be in it, or chasing hard to make it. He will then have to get away again though and that's going to be the hard part.. We know how well Niki Terpstra is going after his powerful wins in E3 and Le Samyn, what's his game plan for this week? Like GVA and some of the others, you'd have to think that Sunday is his goal. I thought he might not go as well in GW following his exploits in E3, but will he have recovered in time to give it a blast here? It may well be that he gets another chance tomorrow, as it's all about Gilbert on Sunday in an effort to defend his title. 

Wout Van Aert can use this as more training towards Paris-Roubaix, not sure he'll be winning tomorrow, but you're sure to see a lot of his ugly white helmet near the front of the peloton all day. Sep Vanmarcke will be thinking about Sunday too I think, he didn't really try anything in GW, not sure he'll want to waste energy here instead. 

And what about the TDF recon boys Nairo Quintana, Romain Bardet and Alejandro Valverde? Well, forget Quintana, he'll probably finish, but maybe 10-15 mins down. Bardet might do better, he showed in Strade Bianche he's made of sterner stuff, but hard to see him getting away on such a flat, tough course. As for Valverde? Is there anything he can't do? He'll probably be right in the thick of things coming to the last 10kms and fight out the sprint, knowing him. But really, in all sincerity, if he wins tomorrow I think we'll have cycling Twitters biggest ever meltdown.. 

So sprint or break? Break or sprint? Sprint from a small break? You'd have to think that the whole race revolves around QSF again and what they want to do. If they want to blow it up, they'll blow it up. If they want to half blow it up and keep Viviani with them, they'll do that too. I'm leaning towards them trying to keep it together for the sprint, I think it will mean an awful lot to the team, and Viviani in particular if he wins tomorrow. We could see more tears, but possibly tears of joy this time. Groenewegen should be best of the rest, with Debusschere coming close too and given their prices I'm happy to back all three of them.

Recommendations:

1pt win on Elia Viviani at 12/1 with Ladbrokes

1pt e/w on Dylan Groenewegen at 25/1 with Skybet

0.5pts e/w on Jens Debusschere at 20/1 with Skybet

Match Bets

Modolo to beat Mezgec, MCN to beat Jules, Kristoff to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at 11/4

Debusschere to beat Laporte - 3pts at 5/6