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Published on Saturday, 27 January 2018 14:03

Cadel Evans GORR 

Geelong, Australia

28 January 2018, 164kms

So the TDU is over and it's on to the Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Race for the riders who are still in Australia, with others like the AquaBlue squad coming across to join them for the fourth running of the race.

Gianni Meersman was the victor in the inaugural running of the race in 2015, from Simon Clarke and Nathan Haas, with Cadel 5th in his final ever professional race.  The man who finished 9th that day, just 7" back, was Pete Kennaugh, signalling his liking for this course. He returned in 2016 to take victory with a blistering attack in the final lap that no one wanted to chase down, until it was too late. 

And last year, Nikias Arndt pulled off a bit of a shock, winning a sprint from a group of 24, beating 15/2 second favourite Simon Gerrans and Cam Meyer, with Nathan Haas only back in 7th. 7/1 pre-race favourite Sam Bennett couldn't stay with the pace on the Hyland Avenue and wasn't involved in the finish at all. 

The courses for all races, which return unchanged in 2018, are designed by former professional cyclist Scott Sunderland, in consultation with Cadel Evans. Created with the time of season and stage of teams’ preparation in mind, it is a challenging and authentic one-day course that allows an attacking style of race, synonymous with the European ‘Spring Classics’ and providing a number of race scenarios.

Along with its beautiful scenery, a feature of the Elite Men’s course is three laps of the Geelong circuit, which closely follows the 2010 UCI Road World Championship course. With some of Victoria’s most spectacular coastal scenery as its backdrop, the elite men’s and women’s Cadel Evans Great Ocean Road Races travel through the most beautiful and iconic areas of the Bellarine Peninsula.

The race is more like a spring classic as described above, with punchy hills, coastal winds and a finale which gives late attackers a chance to steal it from the stronger sprinters. 

The Route

They head south-east out of Geelong until Barwon Heads Road, the hometown of Cadel Evans, before doubling back on themselves and after 40kms they start heading south-west, through Torquay and along the coast where wind could start to play a part. 

If a break hasn’t gone already, directional changes on the roads behind Torquay as the race moves into the Surf Coast provide the perfect opportunity for a breakaway to move away from the peloton. Then a long straight stretch across the marshes of Blackgate Road, Breamlee sees the riders exposed to the elements and wind again has a chance to play a big role in shaping the early action.

The rolling hills toward the coast are the first real challenge for the riders and a chance to test out the legs. The first King of the Mountain points are on offer as they climb their way across to Bells Beach. Briefly re-joining the Great Ocean Road, the race takes a turn north and heads along bushy Forest Road, a taste of the Australian bushland. Through Moriac and then historic Ceres, the race now approaches Geelong.

As they arrive in Geelong they start on the final circuit, but there's three laps, or 60.6kms still to go. The course has a pinch as it climbs its way out of Queens Park and up the road of the same name. A left turn and a further pinch up Melville Avenue, the race then turns left onto Aberdeen Street and a long fast descent down Deviation. The final climb of each circuit takes place up Hyland Road (600m at 5%, but gets steeper for the last 150m or so). This is the final chance for an opportunist to sneak away before the finish, this was where Pete Kennagh got away in 2016. The race travels through residential Geelong and onto the Geelong waterfront for the sprint finish.

Contenders

This race isn't hard enough or have enough long climbs for the likes of Porte or Chaves to gain an edge, it's more a race for puncheurs and strong sprinters as can be seen from the top 10 over the last two years. But it also obviously suits those who are neither puncheurs nor sprinters, as Pete Kennaugh showed last year, the domestique had his day. 

Riders who have gone well in the Aussie nationals as well as in the TDU will be to the fore and it's where most of my attention is going to be focused. 

Daryl Impey opened at 7/1 with Bet365 but was quickly cut to 9/2 favourite by about 10pm Friday night. Ok, he won the TDU with style and pulled off quite the shock, taking three superb 2nd places on the three key stages, but should he be 9/2 for this? He has skipped this race in the past in order to focus on going to do the South African Road and TT races (he's won the TT for the last 4 years running) but is staying to give it a go this year.

He should go well, he obviously is climbing really well and will be one of the fastest at the finish, but can he outsprint the likes of Nik Arndt or Viviani if they get to the finish with him? I'm not sure, so 9/2 is not interesting me, the 8/1 with PP is a bit more sensible, but still not interested

Elia Viviani took a fine stage win on stage 3 of the TDU for us, bursting past a faltering Mitchelton-Scott duo of Edmonson and Ewan. He finished only 5th though in the final stage sprint won by Greipel, and was also beaten by Sam Bennett in the Race Melbourne race during the week. He's not done this race before and he's not usually the type of guy to stay with the punchier types on a course like this, I'd put him in the same mould as Sam Bennett who didn't make it to the finish last year with the leaders. I'm avoiding him too too I think. 

Nathan Haas was a rider I fancied to go well here last year after his early season results, but he could only manage 7th place. This year he was again one of the hot favourites for the Nationals and the TDU but I had suspicions he had a back issue and it may have been part of the reason he struggled really badly on stage 4 to Uraidla, losing 54" and all chance of the race.

He blamed the heat, but he also struggled really badly on Willunga the next day, losing almost 13 minutes, coming home 8th last. So clearly something was amiss - has he recovered in time to put in a big showing here? Well I'm not going to take a risk on him at just 11/1. 

Nikias Arndt is 8/1, and at least he has some form on this course, having won here last year. He was well off the pace in all the stages of the TDU this year though, compared to two top 6 finishes last year, but he was riding in support of Bauhaus who took 3 top 6 places. When he did get a chance to sprint for himself though in the Race Melbourne race this week he took a fine 4th place, so he's gearing up for another tilt at this it would seem. He is much more suited to a rolling course like this than Bauhaus, so I think the team will be behind him again. 

Simon Gerrans is just 15/2, and although he put in a big shift in the stage to Uraidla to try to set it up for Porte, he had a pretty poor TDU under again, nowhere near looking like winning a stage, and he was a DNF also in the Nationals. No interest in backing him whatsoever, even if he finished 2nd here last year. 

Jay McCarthy could have a big chance too here, he's going well and will be looking to make up for a relatively disappointing TDU, where he finished down in 19th overall. He did finish 5th in the stage to Uraidla though and 3rd in the stage to Stirling, two results that could mean he will go well here on Sunday. Previous winner Pete Kennaugh is also in the Bora squad, but it's hard to see him pulling off a repeat of his win from two years ago. Sam Bennett I fancied last year, he was favourite to win this, but seeing as he struggled on this course last year, he may not make the finish again so it is probably all in for McCarthy here. 

I can't see Richie Porte or Rohan Dennis getting near the podium, but Tom Jelte Slagter might have a chance at 22/1. He rode well in the TDU to finish 3rd overall, but that was down to his 3rd place finish on Willunga, he didn't really go so well on the other stages that he really should have been going better on in order to have more confidence in him here. Only 23rd on the finish in Stirling isn't really good enough, and his 32nd last year doesn't fill you with confidence either. 

I don't think it's a race for Johan Esteban Chaves as I said last year, he duly finished 54th. Same goes for Robert Gesink too I think, it's not his style of race, George Bennett might go better on a course like this for LottoNL-Jumbo. Two rider who do interest me, at pretty decent prices though, are last year's 3rd and 4th place finishers - Cameron Meyer and Jhonathan Restrepo. 

Cam Meyer was riding for the Korda Australia team last year and finished a superb 3rd, not far off the win at all. He will be back with a very strong-looking Mitchelton Scott squad this year and if things are not working out with Impey, or indeed they try a different tactic, Meyer could well be a guy to take advantage at 25/1. 

Jhonathan Restrepo was 4th last year, just behind Meyer, and he had a good TDU, while still working in the services of Nathan Haas. He buried himself on the stage to Uraidla to try to keep a faltering Haas in the race, but seeing how well he went here last year, maybe the team will be behind him here again, especially seeing as Haas might still be suffering from that back issue. He seems to go well early in the season (compared to a sea of DNFs later in the season) so he needs to take advantage of good early season form.. He's 33/1 with Bet365

And the only other rider I really have any interest in backing is Dries Devenyns at 28/1. Deveyns rode extremely well in the TDU to take 5th overall, thanks to finishes of 9th, 6th, 4th and 12th in the last four stages, showing how good his legs are by climbing well on stages 4 and 5 and sprinting well in stage 3 and 6. No stranger to going well in hilly Belgian races, and he also is a former winner of the GP Marseillaise, which is quite hilly and ends in a sprint, he could be a real dark horse for this tomorrow and could surprise. 

And that's about it, Steele Van Hoff might go ok, but will do well to get to the finish with the leaders, same for Bauhaus, Battaglin and Debuscherre. The only other guy that I think could cause a shock is Łukasz Wiśniowski for Team Sky.. He seems to go ok early in the season and Sky are looking a little light here in terms of potential winners, so the team might get behind him.. He's 200/1, so is worth a pound or two. Larry Warbasse and Peter Konig might go well too for AquaBlue

Recommendations:

0.2pts each-way on Łukasz Wiśniowski at 200/1 with 365

0.3pts each-way on Cameron Meyer at 25/1

0.4pts each-way on Dries Devenyns at 28/1 

0.3pts each-way on Jhonathan Restrepo at 33/1

Match Bets

Impey to beat Gerrans and Arndt to beat Von Hoff - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

McCarthy to beat Haas - 2pts at 5/6

Battaglin to beat Montaguti and Slagter to beat Guerreiro - 2pts at 11/8