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Published on Friday, 29 September 2017 17:06

Giro dell'Emilia 2017

Sat October 30th, 223kms

The Giro dell'Emilia is a great little race that gets overshadowed by it's big brother the Giro de Lombardia which takes place the following weekend. It has a superb route with a great finish and makes for some exciting racing. 

Now in its 31st year, the race has been won over the years by some absolute legends of the sport, including Jean Francois Bernard, Tony Rominger, Gianni Bugno, Davide Cassani (he of the Moscon sticky bottle at the Worlds), Jan Ulrich and Ivan Basso. It really is the big little race that many cycling fans have never heard of, mainly due to the lack of live TV coverage outside of Italy. 

In recent years we've seen Carlos Betancur, Nairo Quintana, Diego Ulissi and Jan Bakelants win. Last year saw Esteban Chaves sprint away up the hill to the finish, beating an outstanding trio of Romain Bardet, Rigo Uran and Fabio Aru. Pre-race favourite Diego Ulissi finished in 8th, but he's back trying to win back the race he won in 2013, Jan Bakelants, who was 5th last year won it in 2015. Rodolfo Torres, Igor Anton and Jan Bakelants had been away starting the climb, and despite the favourites more or less being on their heels, it still took them quite a while to catch them. 

Just as they were about to make the catch, Chaves made a very clever move, attacking up the side of Aru who was weakening at the front, and diving aggressively through the archway, faster than the others and suddenly he had 10m and accelerated away from the others who were a little one-paced. 

It's a tough little route with a big hill in the middle of it and then climb the finishing climb once before they start on four more laps of the final circuit, taking them up the 1.5km climb to San Luca four more times. 

The Route

The route starts and finishes less than 5kms apart in the City of Bologna, perfect for the local fans who want to see them depart, go about their daily business and then head to the hill in San Luca 5 hours later to watch the finish. They tackle a climb after just 19kms, the Mongardino which averages 9% for 1.9kms, where we may see the break of the day get away. They start climbing again after 39kms and the road continues to climb for 60kms until they reach the top of the Passo Zanchetto, which is officially given a distance of 19.7kms at 5% average. So nothing too difficult in terms of steepness, but a pretty long climb from the bottom to the top.

A steep 12km descent is then followed by a gentler 40km descent, possibly allowing some stragglers from the climb to get back in again. But then they could be out the back door again pretty soon as they tackle the Ganzole after 140kms, it averages 8% for 2kms, but hits a max of 18% on the way. They then roll along until they enter the circuit in San Luca after 183.9kms, climb the hill in San Luca to the finish line and then set out on four more laps of the circuit which is 9.3kms long around the suburbs of Bologna. It climbs up to the finish line then descends back down and rolls along for a bit before climbing back up to the finish again.

The final climb to the finish is 2,2kms in length officially, at an average of 10%, hitting a max of 18%, but the last 500m level out to make it almost a flat run to the line. It typically is a solo winner, or someone with a very small margin of a few seconds that wins it, the winning is done in the last kilometre of the steeper climbing. The last time there was a 'sprint' of sorts was in 2009 when Robert Gesink beat Jakob Fuglsang and Thomas Lofkvist in a close finish.  

Weather: Nothing to worry about with the weather, mild, 19 degrees with almost no wind and no rain forecast at all. Perfect racing conditions.  

Contenders and Favourites

So we have a fair idea of the kind of rider who wins here, you need to be able to climb but also need to be quite the puncheur for the finish. You couldn't call Ulissi or Bakelants an out-and-out climber, but they have won here and finished high up the results on other years, so they can clearly handle the rigours of the stage and are suited to the uphill kick, it is only 1500m or so of climbing after all. 

Esteban Chaves is back again to defend his title and he'll be looking to sign off the season in style like he did last year with wins here and in Lombardia. He's had a pretty disappointing season by his standards, external factors caused him to have a very sub-standard TDF, and his Vuelta was only slightly better, but was still below his expectations, finishing in 11th place overall. He only did it once before in 2012, when he finished 23rd as a 22 year old, but if he comes here in similar shape to last year he will have a big chance again. He has a decent team with him too, with Roman Kreuziger, Damian Howson, Ruben Plaza, Jens Keukeleire and Adam Yates to look after him. 

Last year's 3rd and 4th Rigoberto Uran and Fabio Aru are back to give it another go and both will have chances again. Both are in good form, both have gone well here in the past, Uran coming 3rd once before too, but that was way back in 2011. They will both be there you'd think coming to the final 2kms, and you'd have thought that Uran would have had the punch to go after Chaves last year, maybe he was hoping Aru would take up the chasing in an Italian race, or Bardet, but both looked cooked, particularly Aru.

Chaves just went at the right time and held on, I don't think Uran will let him get away with that two years running, and if it came down to a small sprint, it would be very close between the two of them, with Uran possibly having the upper hand this year. Cannondale have some good back-up options though too with Davide Formolo, Tom-Jelte Slagter and Davide Villella. Formolo might not have the punch on a finish like this though, he prefers longer climbs. Villella might be their best other option given how well he was going in the TDF. He was only 19th last year though, but he was working for Uran and faded in the last kilometre, I think he should be in far better shape this year.

Fabio Aru had a disappointing Vuelta by his standards, he never really was a significant challenger and faded badly on the penultimate stage to the Angliru. He's had three weeks rest since though, can he come here in better shape? I was hoping they'd have Miguel Angel Lopez here, who was in far better form it seemed in the Vuelta, but he has not appeared on the final startlist.   

AG2R have Domenico Pozzovivo, Alexis Vuillermoz and Jan Bakelants here as part of a very strong lineup this year. Pozzovivo has a really good record in this race never finishing lower than 22nd in the eight times he has ridden it, with a 4th, 6th, 8th and 9th in there. He has never finished on the podium here though, he just doesn't have that kick for the last kilometre to go after the more punchier guys and sprint it out for the win. And last year was the lowest he has finished, in 22nd, but he was working for Bardet. 

Alexis Vuillermoz hasn't raced too much since the TDF, but he did win a stage and the overall in the Tour de Limousin, he won his stage on the Cote du Maupuy, a 3.4km climb at 6.5%, similar to a lot of this finish. He also finished 4th in the uphill sprint in Quebec, behind Sagan, Van Avermaet and Matthews, pretty good company to be in, and 11th in Montreal, the legs look good and he could be a dark-horse here. 

Bakelants has a great record here too in the last two years, with a 1st and a 5th, but I must say, the year he won it was a far lower quality field than was here last year and this year. Having said that, he does seem very well suited to the distance and gradient of a climb like this, and has appeared to be coming in to form at just the right time, with good rides in Quebec (14th), Montreal (4th) and Wallonie (5th). He was left out of the Belgian squad for the Worlds, it's always a good way to show how you feel about decisions like that with big rides right after. I think he will be there or thereabouts again on Sunday. 

Sky come here with a decent lineup, which is interesting as this is the first time that they have actually sent a team to the race. Gianni Moson might be their man for this race, the Italian has some making up to do (again) after the sticky bottle controversy at the Worlds, although Cassani was primarily to blame for that. He is in very good form, he should like this punchy finish and he should be very motivated I think. They also have the two Henao brothers and Salvatore Puccio to help get him to the last kilometre in a good position and he could well he a challenger Sunday. Kenny Elissonde might also go well on this finish and Diego Rosa has finished 8th here in the past, so they might have a few options. 

Bahrain Merida have Vincenzo Nibali and Giovanni Visconti, neither of which would be the punchiest, but are still big dangers all the same. Visconti is one that is likely to try something with a lap or two to go and try to get away with a small group that might hold on. Bakelants, Anton and Torres almost made it last year, Visconti is one who could outsprint a small group depending on who is in it.

Nibali is also one that could try something from a bit out, maybe on the descent on the way back down to the final ascent to the finish. He wouldn't have the punch to get away from the likes of Lopez or Chaves, but he has brute strength and a good tactical brain that will see him involved in the shake up on the final hill. But will he be going all guns blazing or is it a prep-race for Lombardia, a race he won two years ago? He has finished 5th and 10th here in the past though, but that was back in 2010 and 2011, he hasn't raced here since. They also have Enrico Gasparotto and Grega Bole who could go well too, but it would be quite a surprise I think to see them feature on the podium. 

Diego Ulissi won here in 2013 and was 8th last year, he's well suited to a short, punchy climb like this. The year he won it though was a pretty weak field, and this is a high-quality field this year, can he do better? He hasn't had a great season, but really seems to have started to peak in the last month or so, finishing 11th in Montreal, winning in Quebec, finishing 2nd in the Memorial Marco Pantani and 4th in the Coppa Sabatini which has a similar uphill finish for the last 800m. In that sort of form he has to be a big danger, he can possibly hang in there with the likes of Chaves, Uran and Bernal and could outsprint the lot of them. 

Androni Sidermec have Egan Bernal who has signed for Sky this year, will we get to see a glimpse of the promise that has seen him sign up to the big league? He is only 20 but he has been on fire this year, particularly since June, racking up wins in the Tour de l'Avenir, Sibiu Tour, Tour de Savoie Mont Blanc, and took 3rd in the Memorial Marco Pantani and 2nd in the first stage of the Giro della Toscana this week. If he is there near the front he is sure to be a challenger, and judging by how well he has been riding it's hard to see why he wouldn't be at the front hitting the 2km to go marker. 

They also have Rodolfo Torres, who came close to winning last year, finishing 6th in the end, but he's not had the best of seasons since finishing 3rd in San Luis in January. His recent form hasn't been great so it would be a suprise to see him challenge for the win again this year. 

And then you have the likes of Igor Anton who came close last year, Nico Roche, Damiano Caruso and Dylan Teuns for BMC, Thibaut Pinot and Sebastian Reichenbach of FDJ, Sergio Pardilla for Caja Rural, Jarlinson Pantano for Trek, Damiano Cunego for Nippo, Matteo Busato for Willier Trestina and Simone Ponzi for CCC.. Hard to see any of them winning this on Saturday, but some of them could come close and top 10.

So it looks like it will probably come down to a battle over the final climb again, the likes of Orica-Scott, Astana, Cannondale, Bahrain Merida and Androni will work to try to make sure their men are still in with a shout coming to the final hill and then it's every man for himself. Chaves will know what to do and where to go, but the others will be watching for that too. Bernal could be the surprise package and might just be able to slip away while the others watch the big guns. And Vuillermoz possibly something similar if they watch Pozzo more than him.

But Pozzo, Uran and Nibali will be there or thereabouts too, it should be an exciting finish. Fair play to Skybet for being the only bookie to come out with prices, it meant this preview I spent several hours on this week is not going to go to waste.. At the prices I think Nibali and Uran are too short though, Bernal and Moscon interest me, Bernal as he is brilliant, and Moscon as he has making up to do for last weekend. At 50/1 Vuillermoz was too big I thought and took a half a point on him too. They have cut him to 40/1 but I think he's still worth a bet at that price, I'd have him closer to 20/1.  

Recommendations:

0.5pts e/w on Alexis Vuillermoz at 40/1 with Skybet

0.5pts e/w on Egan Bernal at 11/1

1pt win on Gianni Moscon at 8/1

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