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- Published on Saturday, 15 April 2017 14:01
Amstel Gold Race
Maastricht to Berg en Terblijt
Sunday 16th April, 261kms
The 52nd running of the Amstel Gold Race starts in Maastricht Sunday, as the cycling focus switches from the cobbles of Flanders and northern France to the hills of Holland and the Ardennes, culminating in Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week.
As always, it's a quality field lining up for this race, but there is a major change to the finish of the race this year which means we won't see the familiar scrap up the Cauberg like we usually do (below). Instead of heading straight on towards the base of the Cauberg with 5kms to go, they turn left instead and cut across to what used to be the 1km to go mark on the old race, the last kilometre is still the same to the finish in Vilt.
This is a relatively new race on the Classics calendar, first run in 1966, but it is now the most important race in the Netherlands in the whole year. The history of how the race came about is just an amazing story, almost comical:
"The first race, on April 30, 1966, was organised by two Dutch sports promoters, Ton Vissers and Herman Krott, who together ran a company called Inter Sport.
Vissers was a house decorator and hockey player from Rotterdam whose break in cycling came in 1963 when a friend asked him to manage a minor team in the Tour of Holland. Those who were there say he was as hopeless as his riders. Officials banished him after he did a U-turn and drove back towards the oncoming race after hearing that one of his riders had punctured. Three years later, in 1966, he became manager of the Willem II professional team that at one time included the classics winner, Rik van Looy of Belgium.
Krott's background in cycling was scarcely deeper. He ran a car-parts dealership called HeKro and, because he admired the Dutch rider Peter Post, worked as his personal assistant. He had also worked as a salesman for Amstel. Together, Krott and Vissers organised small races across the Netherlands. Krott also used his contacts at Amstel to start an Amstel professional team and then the sponsorship to run an international professional race bigger than the round-the-houses events Inter Sport had been promoting until then.
Things started going wrong from the beginning. Krott and Vissers had announced the start, the finish and the distance without taking into account the many rivers and the zigzags needed to cross them. The course would be far longer than 280 km. Further plans were made to start in Utrecht, then in Rotterdam. The finish was moved from Maastricht to the unknown village of Meerssen. Less than three weeks before the start, the organisers realised they had not obtained permission to cross the Moerdijk bridge, the only way out of Rotterdam to the south. The route had again to be redrawn and the start moved to Breda in the south.
The problems had not ended. Whatever the police thought of the constant changes they were asked to approve, they now had bigger concerns. The Provos, militant hippies, had declared Holland a state of anarchy. At the other end of the social scale, Dutchmen were also protesting against the marriage of the queen's daughter, Beatrix, to a German, Claus von Amsberg. The police feared that a race organised on the royal family's big day would bring uprisings and possibly attacks.
On April 26, Vissers and Krott called off their race. But still there was a twist. A press conference to break the news had just started when the Dutch roads ministry in The Hague called to say the race could be run after all — provided it was never again scheduled for Koninginnedag"
The modern day race though is now one of the key races of the season, especially for the Ardennes specialists. It kicks off the trilogy of races that also includes Fleche-Wallone on Wednesday and Liege-Bastogne-Liege on Sunday week. It's a tough course littered with 35 climbs that usuallysuits the punchier types more than outright climbers and sprinters as a look at recent winners shows, but that might change this year with the change to he route. There's over 4,000 metres of climbing in all, who said Holland was flat?!
Recent winners
Last year's race was a strange one, we had the usual flurry of attacks and crashes, but the race was playing out to a predictable looking finish as they approached the closing kilometres. Roman Kreuziger, a former winner of the race attacked with 8kms to go on the Bememelberg, but was quickly caught and passed by a flying Tim Wellens, who held a 17" lead as they approached the foot of the Cauberg. While all the favourites watched each other, 2012 winner Enrico Gasparotto attacked, Jan Bakleants tried and failed to catch him, but Michael Valgren managed to come across.
Even though they were just in front of the peloton, an air of arrogance and brinkmanship enveloped the chasers and they all looked at each other expecting someone else to take up the chase. Despite Etixx, Lampre, Orica, Movistar, LottoNL and BMC all having two riders or more in the group, there was no organised chase until it was way too late. Valgren was played like a fiddle by the wily Gasparotto and he easily dispatched of the Dane in the sprint to take his second victory in the race at odds of 20/1. Colbrelli came out of the pack very strongly to take 3rd spot
2015 saw Gilbert and Matthews attack quite early on the Cauberg with 2.5kms to go and get a small gap, but Kwiatkowski and Costa came after them. By the top of the steeper part of the Cauberg Valverde and a small group including Dan Martin, Gallopin and Alaphilippe joined them to make a group of 17 which fought out the sprint finish. Matthews and Gilbert payed for their earlier exertions though and Kwiatkowski outsprinted them to his first win in the Rainbow Jersey.
Gilbert won it in 2014 with a powerhouse attack at the bottom of the Cauberg, attacking away from Simon Gerrans, Valverde and Kwiatkowski. He held it all the way to the line with indecision and fatigue holding the chasers back. Jelle Vanendert attacked out of the chasing group to take a commendable second.
Romain Kreuziger won in 2013 after an audacious attack from the remnants of the break he was in, just as the peloton were about to make the catch with 7km to go. Gilbert attacked on the Cauberg with Gerrans and Valverde in pursuit, but even though he rode his legs off they were swamped on the line and Gilbert ended up in 5th place, with Valverde hanging on for 2nd from Gerrans.
The Route
The race starts in Maastricht and heads north crossing the river Maas and although the finish to the route might be slightly different to the past, but it's a typical Amstel Gold course with multiple loops around the Limburg area of the Netherlands. It's 12kms longer than last year's course and has one more climb this year, making it 35 in total. They only do the Cauberg three times this year though, compared to four last year, and this time the final passage of the Cauberg comes with 18kms still to go.
The first part of the course, the blue line on the map below, takes them north and east away from Maastricht and before they reach the second part of the race on the loops around the finish they will have passed four climbs, none of which are too hard at all, around 4% average, but the Berseweg is one of the longer hills of the day at 2.7kms. It's too early in the race to have any impact on the result though.
They then head on to the green loop, passing over the Cauberg for the first of three passes and through the finish line, before heading to the south-eastern-most point of the race. Here they go on to a little loop and do three more hills, including the Camerig, the longest hill of the day at 4.4kms (avg 4.4%).
They then head back north and rejoin the blue route temporarily, once again taking them over the Cauberg and on to the red loop. This loop also races on some of the previous roads but cuts a tighter circle than the green route. It does take them over the Bemelerberg for the first time though, which is 900m at 4.5%, but is significant in that it's the last hill they will climb on the final lap as they have cut out the Cauberg.
The Cauberg used to play a huge part in deciding the winner as its 800m distance averages 6.5% but hits a max of 12.8%. This year, as its last passage comes some 18kms from the finish, it might still help decide the winner, but possibly because a small group will get away, from where the winner will come from. The hills carry on coming thick and fast, with the St. Remigiusstraat Huls one of the toughest - 900m at an average of 7.8% with a max of 10.7%. The Eyserbosweg, hill 30, which they hit with less than 30kms to go, is the steepest of the day, averaging 9.3% for 900m, hitting a max of 17%.. and just before that they have the Kruisberg which averages 8.8% for 600m, with a max of 15.5%
The final circuit, the black one, is shorter again but the pace will be really high at this stage. They tackle the Cauberg one last time with 18kms to go, then the Geulhemmerberg and the Bemelerberg again before they turn left with 2kms to go and head towards the finish.
Route Map
Profile
Last Lap Map
The Hills of Amstel Gold
Contenders and Favourites
First a quick look back at a pleasing result in Brabantse Pijl, with our 14/1 shot Sonny Colbrelli pulling off a stunning ride to dominate the latter part of the race and sprint to a comfortable victory in the end. Toms Skujins did indeed give it a go for us and got in to what turned out to be the race winning move, but disaster struck as he got a hunger knock and suddenly had no energy and fell back out the lead group. I think we were unlucky not to see him at least in with a chance of a trademark attack on that final hill to the finish.
We were also unlucky too with our 200/1 man Bettiol I think, Cannondale started working for him too late I think and were not able to pull the lead group back close enough, but he did indeed charge up the final hill to lead home the peloton in 16th place.. On another day we could have struck gold with those two. I'm happy with my picks though, Gilbert was indeed on team duties and just out on a training ride, it wasn't such a clever move if you backed him at such a short price. The 10/11 matchbet on Colbrelli to beat him paid out too to make it a 6.9pt profit on the day, but we got two out of three in the treble, Martens riding a big race in the break to finish 12th unfortunately.. Otherwise it would have been a 14.5pt profit day.
Vakoc at least gave it a real good go to finish 2nd, but he was no match for Colbrelli who won with ease. There were good rides from Benoot to finish in 3rd and Dillier who looked very strong all day too. Poor shows from Hermans and Sean de Bie, two fancied runners, they came in at the back of the main group. Coquard worked really hard at the end of the race on his own, as he had no one left as I predicted, Direct Energie burned themselves out in a futile chase long before they could set him up for a sprint. As for Sunweb, no show, and Matthews rode a strange race to 11th, two places ahead of Coquard.
It will be a different matter though in Amstel, we'll have much stronger teams here and the closing circuit is easier to organise a chase on, it's a lot straighter with less twists and turns. The fact that they don't go up the Cauberg 2kms from the finish like they have in the past could mean that it swings back more towards the sprinters of the race, but I really think that the last 50kms will be like BP with lots of attacking. I wouldn't be surprised to see it all kick off on the steep and hard Kruisberg, with more attacks on the Cauberg and the Bemelerberg with just 6kms remaining.
Philippe Gilbert was 8/1 3rd favourite for this when Bet365 opened their book on Tuesday, and he's still 8/1 after Brabantse Pijl, as it turned out to be the training ride I expected it to be from Gilbert... He was on team duty for Vakoc, riding near the front to help put him in position for his late attack and then sitting there watching as the rest waited for him to do something. He's got a great record on this course, winning in 2014, 2011 and 2010 and of course winning the World Championships here in 2012.
The change to the route makes a big difference to his chances though, as his trademark was the late attack on the Cauberg and hold on to the line. Now the last time up that hill is 18kms from the finish, what will his tactics be? He did of course attack from 55kms to go in Flanders, will he try something from as far out again? Will he try to go solo or take a small group with him the last time up the Cauberg? Maybe he'll go from further out as all the others might be expecting him to wait for the Cauberg. I think it will be very hard for him to get away solo, he's going to be heavily marked, it's not easy getting away when you're wearing the Belgian champion's jersey.
If he does go with a small group, he has to make sure that he has no fast sprinters with him. If he does come to the finish with a favourites group, he will find a few too good for him, he doesn't have the kick he used to have. If he shows the form he showed in the Flanders races though he is sure to be a key player in this race again. He's got a powerful squad here with him too, who will work hard for him, or if the race takes a bit of a twist can offer other options to QuickStep.
Gianluca Brambilla can attack from afar on these hills and solo to victory, Bob Jungels can power away late in the race. Dan Martin could attack on the tougher hills like the Kruisberg and try to kick things off early to shed some sprinters for Gilbert, or at least use it as training for FW and LBL. And Petr Vakoc is in good form too, he was very strong Wednesday to bridge with Wellens and go straight through the group and on to 2nd place. He is probably their best back-up option to send up the road earlier on to let Gilbert sit in. He's 33/1, but I don't think he'll be winning Wednesday.
Gilbert is one of four riders at 8/1, I'll come on to the rest in a minute, but the 7/1 favourite with Bet365 on Wednesday night as I started writing this was Michael Matthews at 7/1. Matthews rode a strange race on Wednesday, almost like a training ride for Sunday too, and maybe it was - Sunday is a far bigger prize to take home. His team were nowhere to be seen, but Matthews didn't do anything either - at least Coquard tried to get away and to help try to pull back the break, even on the penultimate climb when Coquard went for it, Matthews just sat on his wheel and made no effort to come through.
He has a pretty good record in this race though, with 3rd in 2015 in the sprint behind Kwiatkowski and Valverde and was 5th last year, behind Coquard in the bunch sprint. He will prefer this new finish too I think, as he was on the limit last year coming up the Cauberg and was powerless to stop the two get away. I am not sure about his form though, I think he's not 100% yet and he could find a few too good for him again on Sunday.
Another of the 8/1 favourites Sonny Colbrelli is a man that was 14/1 on Wednesday morning, but has been chopped following his superb win in BP. He was excellent on Wednesday, jumping straight on the race-winning move, working his socks off all day and firing up and cajoling all the other members of the break for the last 40kms to keep working. He powered up some of the later climbs and managed to eke the last embers of energy out of Grega Bole to help stretch the lead back out again when the gap dropped to 12" and it was looking like they were going to be caught. He was straight on Vakoc when he came through and attacked on the final climb, and when they rounded the bend together there was only going to be one winner.
He was an unlucky 3rd here last year, he exploded out of the pack in the last 50m to easily take the sprint for 3rd, but thumped the bars in frustration as Gasparotto and Valgren had stolen the race win from him. I think he will go very well again on Sunday, he just looked so, so strong Wednesday. He will be comfortable enough on all the climbs, and may even try to start a move himself like Wednesday from far out. And if it comes to a sprint, he'll be one of the favourites for at least a podium spot I think - I'm happy to play up some winnings on him at 8/1.
Alejandro Valverde is 8/1, but of the four 8/1 shots, I actually think he has less of a chance now with the route change and it's almost like he's being priced on the old route. Sure, he's come close here in the past, narrowly losing out to Kwiatkowski in 2015 in a sprint on this same final stretch, but I think having the Cauberg just before it suits him a lot better as it takes the sting out of the legs of the sprinters a bit more, hence him beating Matthews in that sprint two years ago. He has been in sensational form though this season, age seems to be no object to the ever-green Valverde, winning practically everything he has entered this year!
I think though he has a far better chance of winning on Wednesday in Fleche-Wallone, and maybe even so in LBL Sunday week, so maybe he won't mind too much missing out on this one. I read Saturday morning too that he admits himself that the route change doesn't suit him as much. He's such an incredible racer though he's bound to have a say in some part of the race. At 8/1 though I'm going to skip over him.
Michal Kwiatkowski is also 8/1, and he's an interesting one in this race, as two years ago he won this race brilliantly, then last year he was dropped quite a way before the finish. It must be contract year for Kwiatkowski again though or something because he has been on fire so far this season. A power-packed win in Strade Bianche was followed by a stunning sprint win over Sagan in MSR, and he should have won the stage for us in Pais Vasco only they had let De La Cruz escape.
He's a former winner of this race as I said, pulling off a shock win in the sprint in 2015 against Valverde and Matthews, again, possibly because the sting had been taken out of the legs of the sprinters in their efforts to try to stay with the puncheurs over the last 2kms. I can't see him winning a sprint against some of the other guys here though on this flatter finish this year, so he may have to go long, on one of the last three or four climbs I think. Whether he can win will depend on who he takes with him.. If the likes of Colbrelli, Coquard or Matthews go with him I'm not sure he will.
Bryan Coquard was left disappointed after BP on Wednesday, he was very active late in the race, taking up the chase in the last 15kms on several occassions as his entire team disappeared after pulling at the front inside the last 40kms. He was driving at the front, he was attacking on the hills, but Matthews just sat there and did nothing to help him. He said afterwards "J'avais de tres bonnes jambes' - 'I had very good legs' and that was clear to see.. He also said that he was looking forward to Sunday and thought that the new finish was better for him than before but also better for the other sprinters, but he's hoping for a big result on Sunday.
He has yet to land a truly big victory though, he has come close on a number of occassions, but has yet to get his nose in front on the really big ones. He was 4th here last year, outsprinting all bar Colbrelli who had jumped away impressively, he looks like he has the form and the skills to stay with the punchier guys Sunday and I think he has a good chance of getting on the podium, be it from a bunch sprint, or chasing home one or two breakaway guys. He's 12/1 with Skybet paying 4 places and I'd rather be on that than the 8/1 for Valverde and Kwiatkowski.
Greg Van Avermaet seems to be able to win almost everything he enters, he's had an unbelieveable season so far. He should have won Flanders I think, but for the crash, then took PR with a fantastic sprint, coming from 5m behind Stybar on the final bend to winning by about 3m. He says that he's feeling good after his win and he thinks he can go well on Sunday, and who are we to doubt him? Going against GVA in this sort of form doesn't seem like a good idea.. But you wonder how much it did take out of him - he had to dig really deep both physically and emotionally - first with the frantic chase back after his mechanical, then with driving the winning move for most of the end of the race.
Also, winning PR takes a lot out of you post-race as well, with all the fanfare, interviews etc. He could go very well on this course, he could blow it up with 40kms to go, or on any of the last three climbs, but I'm going to pass on him, I think he'll find a few too good for him given the week he's had, he was 12/1 on Wednesday but has been backed in to 9/1 and that is just a little too short for me.
Tim Wellens looked strong on Wednesday, dragging Vakoc with him in a late attack that managed to bridge to the leaders inside the last 4kms. He just didn't have the punch at the finish to finish on the podium, but still took a fine 4th place. I think Wellens has to be one of those guys who attacks in the last 40kms, and maybe more than once. His team-mate Tiesj Benoot was also really good Wednesday, as part of the race-deciding break, he wasn't exactly driving the break hard like Colbrelli was, but he did play his part and ended up taking the 3rd step on the podium. He seems to be in good form after a disappointing Flanders campaign, and he too could give Lotto-Soudal more than one option in the last 50kms, they can attack in turns. And if it comes to a bunch sprint, they should have Tosh Van Der Sande up there who could get involved.
Fabio Felline at 25/1 is Trek's best hope of success here and they'll probably be riding for him I think, or possibly Edward Theuns. Felline has been riding well enough this year, but besides winning the Trofeo Laguelia right at the very start of the season, the closest he has come to winning was when he chased him the three breakaway guys in the Omloop. He struggled in the Flanders races, and although these races might suit him a bit better, he hasn't a great record in this race, abandoning last year and finishing 30th, 30th and 31st in the last three years. Edward Theuns rode well in Flanders to take 8th place and was riding really well too in the 3 Days of De Panne, he could be used by Trek to go after the likes of Wellens if they attack from far out.
Enrico Gasparotto, last year's winner is available at 25/1 also, but I think he'll be riding in support of Colbrelli here, Bahrain Merida has a strong team here and they can play a big part in helping control the race I think late on if Colbrelli has not gone up the road in a break. Visconti, Bole, Izagirre, Arashira and Gasparotto can help Colbrelli land a big result for the team.
We're now heading in to the bigger-priced guys around the 50/1 and upwards level. Nathan Haas struggled with allergies earlier in the season but looked like he is feeling better based on his ride in BP on Wednesday. He was well to the fore late in the race and tried to come across with Vakoc, but just missed the move. He could be involved in late moves, but his record in the race isn't great, I'm going to wait to see him improve a bit more I think before backing him.
I don't think this course suits Diego Ulissi, Rui Costa or Rigo Uran as much any more so I'm ruling those out. Arthur Vichot could be a lively outsider though for FDJ, he looks their best option for a result here, it's not a great team lining up here. He s been in really good form since winning the GP Marseillaise at the start of the season, taking 12 top 10 places out of 20 starts, including 3rd in an ITT in the Circuit Sarthe. He was 19th here last year, part of the main peloton,and he could well go closer this year. He's 50/1 with Skybet paying 4 places, he might go close this year.
Michael Alasini could have a chance at a big looking 80/1, he notched his first win in an eternity outside of Switzerland with his poachers victory in Pais Vasco, catching a sleeping Michael Matthews on the hop. His team-mate Daryl Impey is another in good form,winning a stage in Catalunya ahead of Valverde and Vichot. He's 80/1 too and might be another outsider who can go close. Ben Swift is 100/1 and I think I've seen a few talk him up, but I can't have him, although 100/1 is a pretty decent price if you do fancy him.
Lilian Calmejane is in incredible form at the moment, albeit in lower grade races.. He's landed three victories so far this year but also took the GC in the Circuit Cycliste Sarthe, the Coppi e Bartali and the Etoile de Besseges. It all depends on what Direct Energie's plans are, they might give him the freedom to attack, but more than likely they'll ask him to look after Coquard later in the race. He's 100/1 though if you think he'll be left go ride his own race. And finally, Toms Skujins again, simply because he's 500/1, he's likely to be on the attack again.. Hopefully he'll remember to eat enough this time.. I backed his team-mate Alberto Bettiol on Wednesday night at 200/1 as he did look like he was going well on the final climb, and I hear he's really fired up for Amstel.. He's just 100/1 now, but might be worth a few pennies.
One final thing to keep in mind.. The forecast for Sunday in Limburger isn't great.. There is a high chance of showers in the morning as they set off and more than 50% chance of rain in the afternoon. There are winds of up to 22kmph forecast and it's going to be cold..around 9 degrees.. Wind and rain could bring even more crashes than usual and it could also see splits form in the peloton to add another reason for the favourits to have to stay on their toes all day.
Conclusion
Its a hard race to call now for sure with the route change and so many riders in exceptional form. This race could blow apart in the winds but it could also see far more aggressive racing from a lot farther out than usual, which could throw up a surprise result. I'm reluctant to back Valverde, Gilbert or Kwiatkowski at those prices, and unless Matthews has just been trying to disguise his form I'm not a backer at that price either.
Sonny Colbrelli is one of my favourite riders at the moment and he won me a few quid on Wednesday so I'm going back in on him at 8/1, I really do think he has a good chance. Coquard at 12/1 with four places might pay out too, he's in good form and has been climbing better than ever. Vichot at 50/1 is an outsider who could feature too and I've my two Cannondale guys for fun again at big prices, Skujins will like it cold and wet!
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Sonny Colbrelli at 8/1 with Ladbrokes or Skybet paying 4 places
1pt each-way on Bryan Coquard at 12/1 with Corals paying four places
0.3pts each-way on Vichot at 50/1 with Skybet paying 4 places
0.15pts each-way on Toms Skujins at 500/1 with Bet365
0.2pts each-way on Alberto Bettiol at 100/1 with 365
Matchbets:
Vichot to beat Martens and Felline to beat Gerrans - 2pts at 1.35/1
Bettiol to beat Jay McCarthy - 2pts at 11/10
Calmejane to beat Izagirre, Matthews to beat Van Avermaet, Gilbert to beat Ulissi - 2pts at 5/2
Fuglsang to beat Henao - 2pts at 11/10
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