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Published on Tuesday, 04 April 2017 21:15

Scheldeprijs 2015

Wednesday 5th April, 202kms

The sprinters get a chance to shine on Wednesday in the Scheldeprijs, the traditional sprinters classic of the northern cobbled races. Marcel Kittel has dominated this race in recent years, winning it three times in a row from 2012-2105 and again in 2016, by millimetres from Mark Cavendish. 

This is the 105th running of the Scheldeprijs and it's the oldest of all the Flanders races, despite the prestige of the the likes of the Ronde. It is a nice bridge between Flanders and Roubaix, with some riders really going for it, i.e. the top sprinters, and others just having a training run to keep the legs ticking over ahead of Sunday. 

Marcel Kittel won last year in a photo-finish on a wet and miserable day to make it a record four wins, but he missed out on the chance in 2015 to make it five wins as he was recovering from the bug that had hit him badly that season. He's back this year to give it another go and he is looking like he is in great shape and ready to do battle with Cavendish again. Mark Cavendish has won this race three times, in 2017, 2008 and again in 2011, interrupted by wins for Pettachi and Farrar. 

Like last year, this year's edition is packed with most of the best sprinters in the world. Joining Kittel and Cavendish are André Greipel, Dylan Groenewegen, man-of-the-moment Peter Sagan, Nacer Bouhanni and Arnaud Démare, along with a number of cobbled riders like Oliver Naesen and Tom Boonen. In fact, this is a very special edition of the Scheleprijs, as in honour of it being the final time Tom Boonen takes to the start line they have moved the start from its traditional departure point of Antwerp to Boonen's home town of Mol, with Rob Hatch tweeting today that even his grandad might be firing the starting pistol. It's probably just a distraction for Boonen though, his mind is most definitely on Sunday's Paris Roubaix. 

The Route

It's a very different route this year to normal this year in honour of Tom Boonen's last appearance in the race. Instead of starting in Antwerp and doing a loop north-east of the city they are instead starting in Tom Boonen's home town of Mol, way over to the east. They do a little loop of around 40kms that takes them out to Lommel, before coming back through Mol and after a brief diversion north they are generally zig-zagging west towards Antwerp for the remaining 140kms.

The route is almost flat, with just little hills here and there throughout the course, but nothing to worry about. They pass the finish line for the first time after 150kms and set off on a 16.8km loop around Antwerp that they do three times in total, finishing after 202kms. The closing circuit can be quite dangerous with roads narrowing abruptly, street furniture and tight turns, Sam Bennet was caught up in a big smash here two years ago with not far to go to the finish when quite a few riders came down at high speed. The finishing straight is long and pretty straight and wide, just arcing a little around to their left near the finish line as you can see in the picture above. 

With a lot of these riders pencilled in to do Paris-Roubaix on Sunday too, most will be just hoping to get home unscathed with some good training in the legs. In fact Sagan's DS has said exactly that, that he is going to look after himself following his crash in Flanders, just needs to loosen the legs. 

Contenders and Favourites

Marcel Kittel is the hot favourite for the race and rightly so -  a record four-time winner of the race, he would probably be the five-time winner if he hadn't skipped it in 2015. On a good day, he is the best sprinter in the world and he seems to be in pretty good shape this year too with 6 wins already to his name, including that monster stage win in De Panne when he came back from a crash with something like 13kms to go, and from about 10th place with 200m to go to win it comfortably in the end from Kristoff. He did fail the day before though at very short odds when he could only finish 3rd to Kristoff and Theuns, he said after he had no explanation for what happened, he couldn't understand why he lost..

But that's the problem with Kittel, you don't know from one day to the next what sort of performance he's going to put in and it's always a risk backing him at short prices like 6/4. I think he will be very hard to beat though in the sprint tomorrow if EQS do their job properly, Boonen, Trentin, Martinelli, Keisse and Lampaert will do the grunt work, Sabatini will possibly be last lead out man to put him in the right position with 200m or less to go.. Any further out and he could be in trouble, faster, nippier guys could come around him at the death. 

André Greipel put in another quality ride on Sunday in Flanders, jumping around the road quite a bit and eventually finishin 20th. He too has been in good form this year, with 3 wins, two 2nds and a 3rd, but was well off in the first two sprints in Paris-Nice in 8th and 9th place and he really should have been beating that mediocre field in Catalunya the day Davide Cimolai won, he could only manage 5th that day, behind the likes of Dion Smith and Kristian Sbaragli. Besides his 3rd place last year, he has only managed to finish 12th in 2012 when Kittel won, 22nd in 2010 and 14th in 2007.

It's hard to know what Greipel will turn up tomorrow, the one that couldn't beat Dion Smith and Sbaragli in Catalunya, or the Greipel who beat Démare, Degenkolb, Matthews and Kittel in P-N. One thing though that might be important to bear in mind though is what I touched upon on Sunday for Flanders, Lotto-Soudal have had a shockingly bad run in these cobbled classics, with Gallopin in 17th their best finisher in Flanders again. There will be severe pressure on Greipel and the team to deliver here as there is low chance of them getting anything out of PR on Sunday either. 

He doesn't have a bad team here with him though, with Sieberg, Hofland, Bak, Wallays, Roelandt and Gallopin to look after him, Sieberg and Hofland will be his last leadout men probably. They will have to swarm all over QS and Kittel in the last kilometre to try to unsettle him and launch Greipel with 150-200m to go. I think he has to get first jump on Kittel though as he may not get past if coming after him.

Peter Sagan is here, but I really can't see him getting involved too much in this race, I wouldn't even be surprised to see him abandon mid-race. He took a heavy bang on his right shoulder, hip and head in the crash Sunday, and although he was able to ride on, albeit gingerly, a crash like that can be far worse the days after once the adrenaline has died away and the stiffness sets in. He will want to arrive in France on Sunday in good shape.

Nacer Bouhanni could be a big danger to the top guys though, he's after notching 2 wins in the last three weeks. He has a strong team of cobble masters with him, with Claeys, Senechal, Van Genechten, Vanbilsen,Van Stayen and his leadout man Geoffrey Soupe. He may be one of the few guys here with the pure speed and aero position to beat an upright air guzzler like Kittel. He will need a perfect delivery though and will need to get out from behind him with 100m to go to have any chance. Try too early or too late and he will be beaten. He has a good shout at a podium spot I think though, he could be the Cavendish in the photo finish this year with Kittel.

Team Sky have Elia Viviani leading them here, and the Italian should be good enough for a top 10, but is he capable of winning it? I'm not so sure. He has yet to win this year, but has finished 2nd an incredible 5 times, being beaten by Gaviria and Boonen in San Juan and behind Kittel in Dubai and Sagan in Tirreno. They have Rowe, Stannard, Moscon and the entire team more or less for Paris-Roubaix supporting Viviani, so it will be interesting to see just how hard they push themselves with Sunday in mind. It might be that Viviani will be pretty much on his own in the last 3kms, but he doesn't mind that. He's 12/1 with Bet365 and will have his supporters for sure, but I can't see him winnning it. 

FDJ have Arnaud Démare here for the sprint, and like Greipel, and even Kittel, you never know what Démare you are going to get from one race to the next. He rode well, up to a point on Sunday, getting his nose in the wind, pushing at the front, but maybe he should have been sitting in a bit more, as he blew up later on and come home 3'30" down. After a fine Paris-Nice with a 1st, 2nd and 3rd, his cobbled campaign has been really poor. Maybe getting back to a somewhat normal race (albeit with some cobbles still) might get him back in the groove, but he's a 4th to 10th man for me. 

AG2R don't have a sprinter, so they'll be looking to breakaway candidates, but like Sagan, I don't know if Oliver Naesen will be putting himself too much in to the red after Sunday's crash and with P-R in mind. Cannondale are looking to Wouter Wippert for the sprint, but he's not going to be beating Kittel or Greipel you'd think. There's no Mark Cavendish here, so Dimension Data will probably look to Scott Thwaites or maybe even Mark Renshaw or Youcef Reguigui, but 4th to 10th at best for them. 

Bahrain Merida have Niccolo Bonifazio, but his form has been far from good so far this year, while Katusha will be looking to Baptiste Planckaert or maybe Rick Zabel in the sprint, but neither of them are going to trouble the top 2 here. Edward Theuns leads Trek here, but will not be in the top 3 I think. With Sagan probably having a training spin, Bora will look to Matteo Pelucchi in the sprint, but like with Theuns, Wippert, Bonifazio and the rest, he's just not in the same league as Kittel or even Greipel. 

Anyway, the odds on Kittel, now they are out are prohibitive at just 4/6, I've no interest in backing him at that price. Greipel should be up there too, but the only bet I'm going to have is Nacer Bouhanni at 15/2 with Paddy Power, I think he can top 3 it, and on a good day, or with a touch of bad luck for Kittel, he could well win it. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Nacer Bouhanni at 15/2 with Bet365

Matchbets

Planckaert to beat Van Leberghe and Theuns to beat McLay - 2pts at 11/8 with 365