Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Iruñea › Eltziego

Tuesday, April 4th, 173.4kms

Well that was a great start wasn't it - fucked over in the first few kilometres of the race as Sam Bennett started, and promptly abandoned. I'm talking through my pocket of course, but that's bullshit from Bora to put him on his bike and set him off if he clearly was not well enough to go 5kms on his bike. It bust the win bet, and the treble as the other two had won their matches easily. And no chance of the bookies refunding that as a goodwill gesture, they won't get any newspaper bullshit inches out of it, it's not worth their effort. Only refund and pay out goodwill gestures when it suits them or when the liability is a lot smaller than you'd think.

In the end it was pretty straightforward for Matthews, although Jay McCarthy, now sprinting for Bora in Bennett's absence ran him close. Simon Gerrans may just have given me the signal I was looking for as he powered to 3rd place to make it a 1-2-3 for the Aussies, not something you see in a European sprint every day. Jhonatan Restrepo and Rigo Uran were also surprisingly in the top 10, I suppose that's what you get when there are literally NO sprinters in the race other than Michael Matthews.

Alberto Contador came down in a crash with 700m to go, but didn't lose any time as it was inside the last 3kms. More importantly, he only went on to some grass so he wasn't injured.  

On to stage two then and this is what the Itzulia website had to say about the route:

"Stage will start with a hard climb, Etxauri, 16 kms from the start. Riders will continue to Araba province later and next climb will be at km. 112, la Aldea, in a short get in and out to Navarre, but 60 kms yet to the finish line. However, stage hunters could have their chances attacking in some small hills or taking advantage of wind or bad weather conditions, as they could influence last kms. In case a big bunch arrives to Eltziego, we could see a very fast sprint, as last 3 kms are slightly downhill."

So, sprint, or late attack? Or day-long break? Could be any of the three of them really - who knows. There are plenty candidates for the break and the tough Cat 2 that comes just 10kms in to the race will help strong guys to get away and up the road. Kilometres 25-105 though is pretty tough, undulating terrain though, not only exhausting for the break, but hard to organise a chase in the bunch.

After 112kms they hit the highest point in the whole race, the Cat 3 La Aldea at a paltry 1000m high, not exactly the Tourmalet, but will give the stronger teams the opportunity to shake some out. There's still 60kms still to go though, of which about 35kms are descending, including the last 13kms which are mostly downhill all the way to the line. I think the sprinters teams, and teams with guys who can attack late on will keep close tabs on the break and reel them in on the pull up to the 160km mark so counter-attacks can have a go with just 13kms to go once over the top, and if it comes back together their sprinters can have a go. 

It may even be that we get some late attacks on that little kick up with about 8kms to go while on the descent, some guys will be eyeing that up for a late burst. Two guys who might give it a go are Julian Alaphilippe and Nico Roche. Alaphilippe was unlucky today, he had jumped and got a gap of over 10" with 3.5kms to go, but then disaster struck as he punctured. Nico Roche also launched a big attack with about 2kms to go with Valverde but was reeled in with just 900m to go. They both might fancy giving it a go, especially as Alaphilippe lost 2 minutes today and all GC hopes are gone. Tim Wellens could be another to give it a go, he tried today but went too early really and never got very far. 

The likely scenario though is that Orica-Scott will be working hard to keep it together and will reel in the breaks before the finish to set up a second stage win in as many days for Sunweb. He doesn't really have any competition in this field, Jay McCarthy is not going to beat him and Swift is being Swift again. Simon Gerrans might go close though, but he's not on the same level on a sprint like this to Bling. After being punted from 22/1 in to 5/1 pre-race and as short as 2/1 after Bennett pulled out, Richeze got nowhere near winning, and could only manage 6th, a very disappointing run for his backers. How can you trust him again tomorrow?

So it's almost a no-bet day - Bling should win it, so have a small bet at 7/4, but Nico Roche at 150/1 is too big, and Alaphilippe might just give us a shot at victory with a late attack. 

 

Recommendations:

2pts win on Michael Matthews at 7/4 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Nico Roche at 150/1 with PP

1pt win on Julian Alaphilippe at 9/1 with PP 

 

Matchbets

Matthews to beat Gerrans and Wellens to beat Cummings - 2pts at 9/10 with Bet365

 

 

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Stage 3

Stage 3 - Gasteiz › Donostia

Wednesday, April 5th, 160.5kms

"Stage between Gasteiz and Donostia is a hilly one. 6 hills in total, without a rest in the last 100 kms. From Udana to Mandubia and heading Santa Ageda after on (definitely, hardest climb of the day), strongest riders have enough terrain to start a break in first 3 climbs. Anyway, the stage will probably be decided during the climb and long descent of Andazarrate and climbing last hill of the day Mendizorrotz. Once they climb it, they have some false flat kms until they start downhill in Igeldo. We know that a few seconds difference in Igeldo can be enough to win in the finish line of the Boulevard." 

So Michael Albasini wins his first race outside of Switzerland since September 2014 to just remind us again just how hard it has been to try to back a winner this season. Michael Matthews couldn't even land a podium spot in a frantic and chaotic downhill sprint. Max Richeze of course does what we wanted him to do yesterday and land a podium spot, and Sean de Bie was a surprise 3rd. Valverde was right up there in the mix too though in 7th, a good sign for him in the days ahead. And by days ahead, I'm starting with tomorrow, three Cat 3 climbs in the last 50kms will split things up and play nicely in to his hands. 

Movistar are bound to try to blow things apart and they will have the help of Orica-Scott and probably Quick-Step too in an effort to get rid of the likes of Matthews, Sean de Bie and any other sprinter types. QuickStep may want to try to keep it together for Richeze, but it could be all out attacking over the last climb with just 10kms to go, of which about 7kms are downhill. 

Another rider I think could have a go in the run-in tomorrow is Michal Kwiatkowski, he was very prominent at the front of the race today in the last 5kms, he was looking strong and like he was looking for an opportunity to attack. We know the form he's in, we know how well he likes to attack on punchy climbs like this with fast descents to the finish. He's 9/1 in a few places, just 6/1 with WillHill, I think he has a good chance, more so than Valverde who is only 9/2 and Matthews who is 5/1. 

Simon Yates has become a bit of a specialist at attacking on finishing climbs like this and soloing to the finish, he will be well watched, but I don't think that will stop him, I think he'll still give it a go. He's only18/1 with a few, but 28/1 with WillHill and that's tempting. Gerrans, Ulissi, Luis Leon Sanchez and Albasini again could all be involved in this finish. If it is a reduced group of 50 or 60 come to the finish though, Valverde will have a big chance and Jay McCarthy might well be up there challenging him in the sprint too. 

It's an impossible stage to call, and it's almost a no-bet day again, but Kwiatkowski and Yates I think will at least give it a go for us and might give us something to shout about in the last 10kms. 

Recommendations:

1pt win on Michal Kwiatkowski at 9/1 with Bet365

0.5pts win on Simon Yates at 28/1 with WillHill 

 

Matchbets

Bardet to beat Ion Izagirre - 2pts at 8/11

Yates to beat Contador, Kwiatkowski to beat Uran - 2pts at 1.4/1 with 365

 

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Stage 4

Stage 4 - Donostia › Bilbo

Thursday, April 6th, 174kms

 

"Riders will cross basque coastline from Donostia to Bilbao in this stage. Apparently quite flat with no mountain passes during first kms, road is more hilly than it seems. Orio, Itziar or Ereño hills, for example, won´t give riders any points, but will make them start suffering before climbing Sollube and Bibero. Both climbs have an average slope bigger than 8%, and winner will probably be one of the riders that shows his strength in the last climb before arriving to Gran Via avenue in Bilbao."

This stage seems to have lots of little climbs along the way, more than ten little lumps in total, but they are all just 100-200m in height. Nothing major to worry about, but the repitition of them all day long over 174kms will tire out the peloton. Add in two climbs that average over 8% gradient over 4 and 5kms and we might see a reduced group of strong climbers and favourites come to the finish rather than a full peloton. There is a 10km descent off the last climb, then a little kick up with 3kms to go, before the fast charge down to the finish in Bilbao. It's quite a similar finish to Stage 3 with a climb just 14kms from the finish and a fast charge downhill. And I think we will see similar riders involved in the finish again. 

Well that could have, and should have been so good. Kwiatkowski should have won, but they had let De La Cruz slip the net and he held on by just 3". Kwiatkowski was indeed active and very strong, but unfortunately he had Mikel Nieve doing the chasing for him and bless him, he couldn't catch a cold if he tried. Annoyed I went win only on him as he was big enough to take on at 9/1, in fact, Skybet went 12/1 when they eventually came out with their prices this morning.

Annoyed that I hadn't mentioned or considered my old friend De La Cruz for the win, but my QuickStep thoughts were with Alaphilippe and Brambilla.. Great win for him though, he just keeps getting better and better and I'll be backing him again this year for other races. And I'm annoyed that Simon Yates punctured at a crucial moment, he lost all chance of doing something AND lost the matchbet which he should have easily won as Contador finished down in 33rd place, I think he'd have been up closer to Kwiatkowski and Uran and the likes.

Anyway, on to stage 4, and a similar sort of finish to today - only there are less hills along the way, and the final climb is steeper and harder.. The final climb today was 5% average, this one tomorrow is 8.2% average, with some pretty steep sections along the way. It may mean there will be more riders coming in to the bottom of the climb, but it should thin out considerably by the top..   

Valverde is favourite at 7/2, with Kwiatkowski now 2nd favourite at just 9/2, half the price he was today. Valverde would probably have been closer in that sprint today had he not punctured, and had Jay McCarthy not forced him left and almost in to the barriers with about 100m to go, when he had to check his run. He is sure to go closer tomorrow - Movistar will hammer it up that climb to get rid of all bar about 30-40 guys at most maybe like today. If that's the case then Valverde will go close to winning. He has to - he needs to take time on Contador, and I thought he might have had a chance today to take some, as I'm sure he did too, but was just nudged out of it. 

Gio Visconti, his old team-mate rode very well for Bahrain Merida today, finishing in 5th place, just behind Bala, he's the kind of rider who might try an attack here too. He could go himself, or could react to a move by the likes of Yates. He's 40/1 with Paddy Power, he's a small e/w bet for me. 

Kwiatkowski was good today, but they let it slip, he showed once again though how good his sprint is in a situation like this, pipping Jay McCarthy and Valverde to the line. I think he has to have a big chance again tomorrow on a similar sort of finish, he will be at the front and challenging for the win. But 9/2 now is way too short, anything can happen and that's no value. 

I can't have Wellens or Matthews, Matthews was dropped today on a section that hit 8%, this climb averages 8%, with parts much steeper.. He won't hang on.. Jay McCarthy got up for 3rd today, he too could be close in a sprint finish tomorrow too - he should be good enough to hang on over the climb. Simon Yates will be raging after his late puncture today, it happened at the worst possible time and all his team-mates around him were too tall to give him their bikes. Matty White has said though that it now changes their plans and ambitions in the race, as the GC is out the window, and they will be fighting for stage wins now.

That should mean Yates will give it a go tomorrow on this climb, so at 18/1 I'm going to give him another go. They also have the likes of Kreuziger, Gerrans and Albasini, Albasini in particular says that he is in great shape after doing a special training block to prepare for the Ardennes races. At 50/1 he might be one to have a tiny saver on. Steve Cummings is a ridiculous 12/1, I'm guessing he may have expressed an interest in attacking tomorrow, but that's a horseshit price..

Julian Alaphilippe will also be raging with getting caught up in a crash with 50kms to go, he's now out of the GC contention too as he had lost over 2 mins by the time he got going again. But with De La Cruz now in the leader's jersey he will be asked to reign in any attacking intentions and work to protect De La Cruz's lead. So I can't have him at just 15/2.

LL Sanchez and Sammy Sanchez can give it a go late on too possibly, and given the steepness of the final climb, I wouldn't be surprised to see Contador on the attack on the climb to test the legs and the opposition. Nico Roche also suffered a puncture today, now he's out of contention he might try a late attack too. It could also be a finish for Ulissi, he was 7th today, but he'd prefer an uphill finish. One other that I am interested in though for either the attack of the day, or a late attack is Pelle Bilbao, as the race goes through his home town of Gernika on the way and may well be motivated to try something.  

It could well be a case of Deja Vu though with a similar sized group charging down that hill to the finish, with maybe one, or a few riders off the front being chased. I'm going to take a punt on Yates again to try to make up for yesterday and Visconti and Bilbao, but small stakes, it could be an anything stage again.  

 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Simon Yates at 18/1 with 365

0.3pts each-way on Gio Visconti at 40/1 with 365

0.2pts each-way on Pelle Bilbao at 66/1 with Skybet 

 

Matchbets:

Uran to beat LL Sanchez - 2pts at 8/11 

 

 

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Stage 5

Stage 5 - Bilbo › Eibar

Friday, April 7th, 139.8km  

Small profit today then with Visconti getting up nicely in the sprint to land 3rd for us at 40/1, and the Uran matchbet also landed to give us 3pts to take in to tomorrow. It was a wild stage again, but a few things surprised me. Firstly, that Bling Matthews managed to stay in there with a select group of less than 40 guys, but even so, still didn't manage to win the sprint. Secondly, that they let someone like Roglic slip away so easily in the last few kilometres and not close him down, yet another race this year where riders get a small lead and those behind are incapable of closing it down. 

Thirdly, that Alejandro Valverde was only down in 10th with precious bonus seconds up for grabs, and finally, just how much bad luck Alberto Contador is having! Two crashes and a puncture today, but luckily they weren't serious and he can carry on. Toms Skuijns and his breakaway companions gave it a good go, but were reeled in on time for a big battle on the last climb. Simon Yates gave it a go as expected, but wasn't able to really get very far, DLC doing a great job of shutting the gap down and protecting his lead. 

"This stage starting in Bilbao will be the hardest or the most mountainous of the race. Already a classical stage, as it ends in Arrate sanctuary, will have a not so known finish this yer. After climbing twice the typical Izua pass, stage will finish climbing Usartza from Matxaria. This climb has an average of 10%, so strongest climbers will show there to try to win the stage, but at the same time, to try to distance their opponents for the GC." 

So a tough stage with two Cat 1s, a Cat 2 and two Cat 3 climbs before you even reach the summit finish on the Cat 1 pull up to Usartza. It looks like a classic stage for a break, as it's only 140kms and has plenty of climbing to help a strong break get away and make it difficult for a chase to be organised behind. So a few break candidates - Igor Anton at 125/1, Ruben Plaza at 100/1 or Luis Angel Maté at 300/1 could be involved, as could about another 40 guys, but it's likely that the race is going to come down to a scrap amongst the GCs favourites, as the climbers will be desperate to try to put some time in to the TTers.

Alejandro Valverde has been made the 9/4 favourite, and based on his performance in Catalunya I'd be all over that.. The way he danced away from Contador and Froome on the finish to Lo Port was ridiculous, if he pulls off something like that tomorrow then not many will be able to live with him. But he hasn't dominated this race so far like I expected him to, I thought he'd have picked up a few bonus seconds by now, maybe even a stage win or two. Instead he has been lurking in the shadows, finishing in 10th place today, 4th yesterday, 7th on stage 2 and 16th on stage 1. Can he explode away and win the stage, or even hang in there and win the sprint after the flat last 2kms after the top of the climb? Sure he can. But at 9/4 I'm not overly enthused. 

Simon Yates could have a chance if he can hang in there with Contador and Valverde, and attack near the finish, preferably while it's still going uphill and before the last 2kms.. But 11/2 now?? Very short. Julian Alaphilippe might have had a go, but he was involved in a crash again today and he looked hurt off the back, he lost a lot of time. If he is feeling any better tomorrow I think though he'll be asked to look after DLC, to try to hold on to the leader's jersey for another day. 

I can't have Alberto Contador purely on the fact that he crashed so many times already this week, and I think he will look to just follow the attacks and keep it together for the final TT. Sergio Henao could have a chance on a finish like this too, he has been in great form recently with his win in Paris Nice and his 3rd place in the Miguel Indurain. Kiryienka, Lopez, Nieve, Kwiatkowski and Golas will have their work cut out to look after him all day and deliver him fresh for the final climb, but they are a solid and strong bunch of guys. He has a big chance of at least a top 3 I think.

Rigo Uran is one that interests me a little though at 18/1, he was 22/1 earlier, maybe I should have taken that.. I was told pre-race that he was in great shape and have him at 80/1 for the overall, and Cannondale have been glowing in their praise of him so far in their race reports. He was active today again at the front and he has the strength and experience to follow the right moves or even make an attack of his own. But I think I'll leave him as I have him for the overall, if he does win tomorrow, great.. Michael Woods could also go well for Cannondale at 40/1. 

Romain Bardet could try to sneak away while all eyes are on Contador and Valverde, it would be just like something he would do, possibly going with the likes of Simon Yates. George Bennett has been riding well lately too and after Roglic's win today the mood will be good in the LottoNL camp.

Gio Visconti looks very big at 80/1, he rode very well today, covering the moves on the climbs and getting up strongly to sprint to 3rd place. He is capable on a good day of hanging in on a climb like this and could well fight for the win. Let's roll some of today's winnings on him on to tomorrow. Ion Izagirre will follow wheels on the climb, I think he is capable of a good finish here, but I can't see him sprinting away from these guys.

It's a hard stage to call as there are just so many guys who can either go long, attack near the top of the climb, or just hang in there to fight it out in the last 2kms. Valverde will be a big danger, but I think Henao may well skip away from him and everyone else towards the finish of the climb and hold on over the last 2kms for the win. Uran can go close, but Visconti is too big at 80s to be ignored. 

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sergio Henao at 5/1 with 365

0.3pts each-way on Giovanni Visconti at 80/1 with 365

 

Matchbets

Visconti to beat Kwiatkowski - 1pt at 2/1

Izagirre to beat Spilak, Uran to beat Bardet and S Sanchez to beat Ulissi - 2pts at 2/1 

 

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Stage 6

Stage 6 - Eibar to Eibar

Saturday, April 8th, 27.7kms

"As usual, Itzulia will end with an individual time trial stage. 27 kms in total, riders will need to warm up well as they start climbing Elgeta. After descending direction Bergara, they will turn to Osintxu and will go to Eibar again to Untzaga square, completing a circuit that really fits time trial specialists if they do not waste too much energy in first climb. But also suitable for those riders that have shown they are in very good shape."

I knew I should have backed Uran at 18/1, we'd have had the place money there at least as he took 3rd place. But I'm annoyed even more with his 3rd place as he finished one place behind Romain Bardet in 2nd and blew our 2/1 treble which was a winner otherwise. He freewheeled to the line whereas Bardet kept pedaling, so it's bloody annoying to lose it like that.

At least Visconti landed a nice 2/1 matchbet for us, beating Kwiatkowski. As it was, Henao just wasn't good enough, Samu Sanchez was desperately unlucky and it was a formality for Valverde as soon as they got in to the last 2kms. Incredibly, or maybe not given the parcours this week, there are FIVE riders on the same time going in to the final TT tomorrow. 

So a stage and the overall still up for grabs, it should make for a very tense and nervous TT. As for the stage, there is nothing to seperate Valverde, who is bizarrely favourite for a TT at 5/2 and Contador and Ion Izagirre who are 11/4. And even Roglic isn't much bigger at 9/2. It's an absolute coint toss between these four, and I'm not even sure I'm tempted to back any of them. Yes, Valverde can TT when the chips are down, he'll just take another shot of whatever he's on tonight and blast the course tomorrow. But he's no Tony Martin.

Alberto looked lacklustre to me today, as I thought he might after two crashes yesterday, he was unable to go after the big move by Bardet in the last kilometres today, Uran and the rest had to go around him to close down the gap. He would probably beat Valverde 9 times out of 10 on a course like this I think if he was 100%, but is he 100%? Doesn't look like it.

And Ion Izagirre - you never seem to know which Izagirre is going to turn up on the starting ramp. He blew his chance of a win in the Ruta del Sol by crashing, but he finished 30" behind Contador on the Mont Brouilly TT in Paris Nice. And he was disappointing today, he was unable to stay with the leaders and lost 15". 

But at least Roglic has shown some form and power this week, with his relentless attacking on stage 4 to take a superb victory. He is looking strong, but is now out of it after finishing 1'11" down today. I'm guessing he lost contact and then just rode tempo to the finish to keep a little energy back for tomorrow. I'd rather be on him than any of the 3 above him in the betting. 

Michal Kwiatkowski had a tough day today, suffering a mechanical on the penultimate climb and he had to chase hard to get back on, then blew up on the final climb. He will give this a good go I think to keep the legs ticking over ahead of Amstel Gold, but I'm not sure he'll be winning it. Michael Matthews is just 16/1 for a TT.. Madness? Maybe not.. look at his ride in the TT in PN, he was leading with only about 500m to go when he put too much power through the wheels on a bend and went over. He has also won the prologue in PN in 2016 and a TT in the Tour of Slovenia, as well as finishing 8th in a TT in Romandie on a lumpy course too. I think he could be 4th to 10th, but can't see him in the top 3 though. 

Kiryienka looks big at 22/1 for a former World TT champion, but his TT has been rubbish recently. Luis Leon might have had a chance, but he came down in that crash two days ago just before the finish, and finished almost 5' down today, I think I'll leave him. And Rigo Uran - he's 40/1 to win the TT, but 18/1 to win the overall, which got me confused for a while, but of course, he doesn't necessarily have to win the TT to still win the GC. I think he will put in a big TT, I'm hoping he puts in a big TT, he's certainly not out of this with only the likes of Valverde, Bardet, Meintjes and Woods on the same time as him and Contador 3" back..It's not like he has Cancellara, Martin and Froome ahead of him. Izagirre could be the big danger behind him but he's 15" back.

And there really isn't anyone else to get excited about - Maybe De La Cruz can pull off a miracle TT ride, he rode very well in the PN TT to take 6th place. 

So a real tough one to call. Roglic is out the GC, but could well win tomorrow. Valverde, Contador and Izagirre could be anything.. And who knows what we get from the likes of Kwiatkowski, Matthews and Kiryienka. A small bet on Roglic is all I'm interested in. As for the GC? That's wide open too, but Ion Izagirre could be the bet still at 3/1, I don't want to back Valverde at just evens, but let's face it, he's going to go out and win it by five minutes isn't he, and laugh at them all. 

 

Recommendations   

1pt each-way on Primus Roglic at 9/2 with Bet365 

 

Matchbets 

Uran to beat Bardet, Spilak to beat LL Sanchez - 3pts at 19/20 with 365 

 

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