Details

Published on Saturday, 08 April 2017 12:35

Paris-Roubaix 2017

Sunday 9th April, 257kms

Philippe Gilbert has passed up the opportunity to complete the rare Flanders/Paris Roubaix double on Sunday, opting instead to save himself for the Ardennes races to come. A wise choice probably, as this looks like being all about Tom Boonen for Quick-Step on Sunday.

I think we are all still suffering from a bit of shock and awe at Gilbert's demolition job of a quality Flanders field on Sunday, a 56km solo effort was probably one of the greatest victories in Flander's history. Credit where it is due, QuickStep seemed to do quite a lot right on Sunday and the team were instrumental in his win.

First, I think they played a master bluff with Gilbert pulling at the front with 100kms still to go.. Although he wasn't going flat out, he was still very visibly pulling at the front of the peloton, with Boonen working too. It lulled a lot of us in to thinking 'Oh he's working today, it must be all for Boonen/Terpstra' - and I think that may have filtered through the teams too. When he jumped on the Kwaremont first time up, he had Terpstra I think right behind him. He got a gap, Terpstra slowed down, and all of a sudden he had more than 10" lead in no time at all.

It was too early to start closing him down, but he had a bit of luck too of course with the fact that Sagan really had no team-mates to chase, BMC were left a bit wanting towards the end and QS were spoiling chase attempts left, right and centre. And then of course there was the crash. You have to think that Naesen, Sagan and Van Avermaet would have reeled in Gilbert in the last 10kms, as he was out on his feet, GVA and Van Baarle knocked over 30" off his lead on their own (Terpstra was a passenger), and DVB was out on his feet too.

So I think we were unlucky with GVA, he could have won (but then again maybe Sagan would have won the sprint?) but if that eventuality had happened then DVB would not have landed the odds for us each-way at 100/1 for his 4th place. Great ride by him, it saved the day for us, with some matchbets winning we broke even more or less. Gilbert backers at 40/1 all the way down to 6/1 or whatever he was on the day were jumping for joy, well done if you got that. I think we were unlucky with Kristoff too, as I predicted he won the sprint for the remaining places, but it was for 5th, he rode very well Sunday but was found wanting on the Kwaremont each time. 

There were great rides too by the three Italians to finish in the top 10, with Modolo 6th, Pozzato 8th and Colbrelli 10th, and Sylvain Chavanel's 9th place was pretty impressive too, I didn't see that coming at all. The race will be remembered equally for Sagan's crash almost as much as Gilbert's win, it was almost as if Sagan didn't want to be overshadowed and rode too close to the barriers.. I jest of course, but the 'jacketgate' nonsense will rumble on for years to come.

My thoughts? Sagan is to blame for riding too close to the edge, but the spectator is to blame for bringing him down. Why leave a garment dangling like that over the barriers with riders going by so close? He was unlucky, you don't expect to be taken out by something like that. But these things happen, it just sucks it ruined the race.

He seemed to be pretty shook up after it, but he did ride to the finish. Reports after were that he had pains in his knee, hip, and elbow and had also banged his head pretty hard on the cobbles. He did start and ride the whole of the Scheldeprijs Wednesday, even pulling hard inside the last 5kms before pulling over. Sep Vanmarcke isn't so lucky though, his injuries from his crash (including a broken finger) mean he is going to miss out.    

Paris-Roubaix is a different beast altogether to Flanders. The terrain may be flatter, allowing some riders a better chance than the hilly Ronde route, but it contains no less than 55kms of cobbles altogether in 29 sections this year. That is two more sections than last year, and 2.2kms more cobbles. There are three five-star sectors, the highest degree of difficulty: Trouée d’Arenberg (sect. 18,  2.4km at 162km point), the Mons-en-Pévèle (sect. 10, 3kms at 209km point) and Le Carrefour de l’Arbre (sect. 4, 2.1km at 240.5km point).

The five-star sectors are the Arenberg Forest, Mons-en-Pévèle and Carrefour de l’Arbre (above), which was elevated to five-star status two years ago.. According to Thierry Gouvenou of the ASO "With time, the Carrefour de l’Arbre has got harder and harder. In terms of difficulty, it’ll be right up there with the Arenberg Forest this year. Over the whole sector, I don’t think there’s a single level cobblestone" 

Known as 'L'enfer du Nord' or the 'Hell of the North' it was first run in 1896 and is one of the oldest cycling races in the world - it's the 114th edition of the race this year. On a dry day it chokes the riders and cakes them in the dust blown up by the motorbikes and other riders, like last year, where they were almost obscured from view at times with the amount of dust being kicked up. It looks like being a similar sort of day this year with good, sunny weather forecast all through the weekend. 

Last year's race was won in stunning fashion by Matthew Hayman, I think he was a 600/1 skinner for the bookies,  I doubt many had him as a liability.. The decisive move came with over 100kms to go when a crash caused a split in the peloton which saw Tony Martin and Boonen push on for QuickStep, along with Hayman, Vanmarcke, Stannard and a few others. The chase behind was almost entirely driven by Sagan and Cancellara who had missed the split, but when Cancellara came down in the Mons-en-Pévèle sector all the impetus was taken out of the chase and that was that. Peter Sagan performed miracles to avoid the crash, riding over Cancellara's wheel in the process.

It looked nailed on for Boonen to take his 5th Cobble trophy home, but somehow, from somewhere, 37-year old Hayman found a sprint to take one of the biggest shock wins in the history of the race. Boonen looked in shock on the podium afterwards and it may well have been that moment that he decided not to retire at the end of the season, but to come back for another go and write the wrongs of that day. Ian Stannard and Vanmarcke got up for 3rd and 4th to reward their each-way backers, with Boasson-Hagen just behind them.   

The Route

Every year they start in Compiegne in the Place du Palais, just north of Paris and the first 97kms are pretty uneventful, flat and boring until they hit the first of the cobbled sections at Troisvilles to Inchy, a 3-star, 2,200m stretch to ease them in to the Pavé. Over the next 56kms they pass ten cobbled sections covering a total of 19.3kms of Pavé as they head predominantly northwards towards Valenciennes. 

The three 'Five-Star' sections of cobbles will have a major bearing on the outcome of the race. The first comes with 95kms left, section 19 of the Trouée d'Arenberg (the Trench of Arenberg) which is a punishing and very rough 2.4kms long.

First proposed by Jean Stablinski, a former world champion who used to work in the local mine, it's a stunningly ominous and iconic section of 'road' with the road-side trees a stark contrast to the wide open fields they ride through later on. As Stablinski said more than 50 years ago "Paris-Roubaix is not won in the Arenberg, but from there the group with the winner is selected."

It fell in to such a state of disrepair it was removed in 2005 but the Amis de Paris-Roubaix spent €250,000 repairing it and restoring it to its original 3m width and it was reintroduced again. Pippo Pozzato once described it as follows: "It's the true definition of hell. It's very dangerous, especially in the first kilometre when we enter it at more than 60kmph. It's unbelievable. The bike goes in all directions. It will be a real spectacle but I don't know if it's really necessary to impose it on us"

The next key five star section is the Mons-en-Pévèle section which comes with only about 49kms to go and has been a race-shaper on a number of occassions in the past. In 2010 Cancellara launched his race-winning move just before this section of pavé. In 2012, Boonen kicked off his long solo effort just before this section, putting the hammer down and quickly building up a lead. In 2008 Stijn Devolder attacked here and helped set up Boonen for another of his wins. It's 3km long and the first 1100m are in ok condition, but the last 1100m are quite rough.

There's a series of tough cobbled sections that come one after the other in the last 40kms but it's the 4th last section of the Carrefour de l'Arbe with 17kms to go that can be a race maker or race breaker.  Not only is it a place where the strongest will try to shed any remaining hangers-on by hammering it at the front, it is also a section which sees it's fair share of crashes and accidents. 

Then on to the finish in Roubaix.. First, one last section of cobbles, but it's flat and easy, almost procession-like in the town as they approach the velodrome and pass under the 1km to go flag. Then on to the idiosyncratic finish, a lap and a half of the velodrome, which often sees the leading riders joined on their last lap by the chasers starting their first lap. You have to time your sprint right and get the right line, if you are on your last legs you need to hug the track edge and try to hang on, if you've still got strength you can come around the top and try to outsprint your rivals.

Click here if you want a more detailed description of every cobbled sector, it's in French, but it's an excellent breakdown of all the sectors. 

The Weather

The weather couldn't be worse for those hoping for a wet and messy race, the whole week is dry and sunny and Sunday could even see temperatures hit 22 degrees. There is no wind to speak of either, just 3-4mph, so a pretty benign day. 

Contenders and Favourites

I suppose we have to start once again with Peter Sagan - he was 2/1 favourite last year, he was 9/4 favourite for this race too last Sunday morning. But since his crash in Flanders he has drifted out to 7/2 with Bet365, and you can see why. That was a real hard fall he took, coming down heavily on his right hand side and whalloping his head off the cobbles. He's an incredibly tough guy as we've seen with him getting back on his bike and riding after other crashes, as he did on Sunday, riding to the finish and finishing in 27th place. 

He started the Scheldeprijs on Wednesday morning, in honour he said of his friend Tom Boonen's last time taking part in the race, and I expected him to do maybe 50kms and pull over.. But lo and behold, with less than 4kms to go he took to the front and started putting the hammer down, stringing out the bunch.. then pulled over, bunny-hopped on to the footpath and let them at it. That was impressive considering the crash, but he had a comfy enough day in the saddle up until then and maybe he just wanted to see how hard he could push himself before the pain became too much. 

A fit and fine Sagan would have a massive chance here of course, he could well have won last year had he not crashed. He doesn't have a great record in this race though, he's entered it five times and his results read 11th, DNF, 86th, 6th, 23rd. Something worried me though in the photos of the recons today, the picture on the right shows Sagan taking a bend on the cobbles and he is holding his bars in an unusual way, like he still has pain in his left side after the crash.  

I think he may not be 100% and that worries me. I think he will still lay down the power on some of the key sections and could cause splits, but it wouldn't surprise me if he was to struggle when the going gets tough. . 

For months now this race has been all about Tom Boonen, as it's going to be his last ever professional race. The four-time winner of the race has targeted this race ever since he blew his chance of winning last year, by, as he admits himself, making a mistake in positioning in the last hundred metres.

He has also finished 2nd twice in this race, to Cancellara  in 2006 and famously last year when he crossed the line with his head bowed in disappointment. He also finished an amazing 3rd in his first go at the race at just 22 years of age. 

The stars seem to be aligning for Boonen for this race though - Sagan, GVA, Naesen and Vanmarcke crashed in Flanders, Vanmarcke isn't going to start Sunday. Philippe Gilbert has decided to skip it, so the whole team will be focused mainly on Boonen. 

And also, as a result of his mechanical at the bottom of the Taaienberg on Sunday he lost all chance in the race, so was able to coast home over the remaining 40kms or so, saving energy. He looked strong at times there though and he also looked very good in the Scheldeprijs on Wednesday. When they hit that cobbled section inside the last 10kms he went to the front, sat with his hands on the tops of the bars and powered over the stones. Without looking like he was making any effort at all he had the peloton strung out and under pressure.

He has won this race in all sorts of ways and has lost it too in all sorts of ways. He knows every stretch of cobbles, every bend, every quirk of the course. He knows when to watch out for going wide around some bends (unlike Hushovd in 2009) and he knows which lines are the best over each sector of Pavé. I started backing Boonen back in January at 12/1 when he won the stage in San Luis, he was very impressive down there. I also took some more 9/1 recently and again 9/1 with Corals Sunday afteroon when they didn't react in time to the Sagan crash situation. They soon after slashed him to 5/1 and he's now generally 4/1-5/1 second favourite for the race and the I think a lot of the value is gone now, I hope some of you were backing him when I was recommending to do so in last few months. I think he has a big chance, I just hope he has that last bit of strength and energy to deliver.

Greg Van Avermaet went down too of course in Flanders, but he didn't seem to be hurt as badly as Sagan, he quickly popped up, grabbed his bike and continued to ride, finishing an impressive 2nd despite his fall. He missed this race last year due to his crash in Flanders and has had mixed results here over the years. He did manage to take 3rd in 2015 (almost landing a 100/1 forecast with Degenkolb for me) and 4th in 2013, but outside of those results he's been down the field here. He is fired up for it, he wants to make amends for Flanders, where he probably should have won the race, and we know he's a lot better now than he was in 2015 or before. 

Again, he has a powerhouse BMC team with him, Oss, Quinzi, Drucker and Elmiger bring power and experience to help him later in the race. But from probably about 50kms to go Greg probably won't need them, he'll be in the zone and either marking the likes of Sagan and the QuickStep mob or pushing hard himself at the front. At 10/1 with 4 places I think he will go very close, simply as he's one of the strongest and most talented riders in the race. 

John Degenkolb... the elephant in the room - will he, won't he? He's just 6/1 for this despite not really looking like he was ever going to win any of the classics so far this year, finishing 7th in MSR, 13th in E3, 5th in GW and 7th in Flanders. BUT the man is a former winner of the race and knows how to ride this course. The way he cruised in this race in 2015 was truly impressive, but I feel that JD and the current JD just aren't the same rider. There's a little something missing - and you don't win PR with a little something missing.

The fact he couldn't beat Kristoff or Modolo on Sunday for the 5th spot was telling I think, if he does manage to stay with the lead group, and if there are strong sprinters like Kristoff there, I think he might be outdone again. I can't back him at 6/1. 

Jasper Stuyven is a back-up man for Degenkolb and he could be one to go well from a long break in the right group. 

On the other hand, Alexander Kristoff, who beat Dege in the sprint on Sunday is three times his price at 18/1 and that interests me a lot more. Kristoff has had mixed, mostly bad luck in this race too, his record so far here reads 48th, DNF, DNF, 57th, 9th, DNF, 10th. Bad luck has played its part for sure, but with the form he seems to be in at the moment, I think it will be close. He has won the bunch sprints in MSR and Flanders, coming close to landing a place for us in Flanders last sunday. He has Tony Martin with him who was instrumental in helping Boonen pull clear in last year's race, if he can stay upright and on the right side of splits I think he could be in that group of 8-12 that could come to the finish together and would have a big chance in the sprint. 

Luke Rowe and Ian Stannard represent Sky's best chance of success in the race again, but both have their issues - Rowe has been good, but not great recently and came down in the crash with Vanmarcke last Sunday. He did finish the Scheldeprijs though so he can't be too bad, but I think it will take an enormous amount of luck for him to win this, but a top 4 may not be out of the question, he has this race as a massive target in his season. Ian Stannard though is a shadow of his former self and I can't see him being involved in the finish. 

Jens Debusschere and Jurgen Roelandts lead for Lotto Soudal, they have had a horror show so far in the classics, but Roelandts did land a 4th place in Scheldeprijs on Wednesday so maybe his form is coming around a bit. Debusschere should go better on a flatter course like this, but he may struggle to stay with the top guys in the race. 

Zdenek Stybar, Nikki Terpstra, Yves Lampaert and Matteo Trentin could also go well if they weren't having to look after Boonen's interests, so if you are backing them you are taking a chance that Boonen has issues that takes him out of the running. On the other hand though, they may get to sneak away if everyone is watching Boonen. Tepstra is in good form, but really he should have done better than 3rd last weekend as he had been a passenger behind GVA for the last 13kms. He is a former winner here of course, but he'll be on minder duties unless something happens.

I wouldn't be surprised, if it did come down to a small group, to see Terpstra and maybe another QuickStepper amongst them. They practiced on the velodrome today for the sprint, leaving no stone unturned. Stybar took a tumble in the recon, not sure how shook up he is but the team are saying he's ok. Stybar is a former 'crosser though and has previously gone well in PR, his prior efforts to last year saw him finish 6th, 5th and 2nd - a progression that would suggest a win is not impossible.

Dylan Van Baarle rode a fine race for Cannondale again on Sunday, finishing in 4th. With Vanmarcke out of the race, it will be all for Van Baarle Sunday, and I think he is capable of pulling off a big ride again Sunday. He finished 16th last year, in the same group as Sagan and Rowe, if he can finish in the same group as Sagan Sunday it could be the lead group. I think though that he will have to go solo, we saw last Sunday he has no sprint on him, and that's going to be a big ask. He could get in the right move though if it is a small group of 4 or 5 and he may land the each-way again at 40/1 with the books paying 4 places.

Or the 50/1 with Betway if you have an account with them paying 4 places, but I wouldn't recommend opening an account with them, they're a theiving bunch of shit who won't let you withdraw your money unless you jump through hoops and bet hundreds of pounds before you meet some bonus criteria. Steer clear unless you already have an account with money in it. 

Oliver Naesen continues his steep trajectory towards stardom, he was right in the mix last Sunday with GVA and Sagan on the Kwaremont before the crash took him out of it, he may well have finished on the podium otherwise. He did take a hard bang too of course, but rode on to take 23rd and also did the Scheldeprijs so he can't be too bad. 13th last year, in that same group as Sagan, DVB and Rowe, he has been sensational this year and could be a big player in this race too. 

AG2R also have Stijn Vandenbergh and Alexis Gougeard who could go in the breaks here in order to give Naesen some help later in the race possibly, Gougeard has been on the attack in PR before and Vandenbergh is a rouleur who was very unlucky here in 2013. He was looking very strong all day, led through the Trouée d'Arenberg, and made a final selection with his team-mate Terpstra, Cancellara and Vanmarcke. Disaster struck for the two Quickstep men though in the Carrefour de l'Arbre sector of Pavé as first Stijn hit a spectator and came down, followed shortly after by Stybar who came to grief at the hands of the spectators too. 

"I know that I can win this race one day," said Vandenbergh afterwards "Today I had a really good chance for the win or a podium result at least. It's sad that I missed out on a podium result because of the crash. I'm really disappointed." He's 200/1 with Skybet to make good on his prediction of four years ago.. 

And not forgetting the Aussies - Matthew Hayman took a stunning 600/1 win here last year for Orica, can he repeat it this year? In a word, no. As amazing as that was, it will be near on impossible I think to pull it off again. Instead I think Hayman will be working for Luke Durbridge, who has been having a great time over the cobbles in recent weeks. He missed the split in Flanders, he didn't have the power needed on the hills, but he will go much better on these flat roads. He looks big at 40/1, he could go close, but will have to win solo, which will be very hard. 

Florian Senechal is a bet I have every year, why break the habit, one of these years he'll get in the right move and have a chance. As long as he's priced at 200/1 I'll have a go. Others who could go well include Edvald Boassen Hagen, he was there or thereabouts in Flanders but just hadn't the kick on the crucial hills, the flatter course will suit him a lot better. Arnaud Démare could be France's best hope, but he will need a lot of luck, something he doesn't always have.. But if he can stay with the lead group he'd be a danger in the sprint.

When Guillaume Van Keirsbulck won Le Samyn with a great display of attacking verve on the cobbles I took the 200/1 that was available on him for this. I was hoping it would be wet and miserable tomorrow for him, but that's not going to be the case, but he's got an outside chance with the right break. Or what about Martin Elmiger, the 38 year old being this year's Matt Hayman? He was 5th two years ago, if anything were to happen to GVA and Elmiger is on a really good day he could find himself in a winning move at 125/1. 

Conclusion:

Well, it's no secret that I am really hoping Tom Boonen pulls off the fairytale ending to his illustrious career and lands his record fifth Paris-Roubaix, my money is down. A lot has to go right for him though and he either has to go solo to the finish from possibly a long way out or go to the finish with the likes of Van Baarle and Naesen so he wins the sprint. It's going to be very hard, he will have to make strong accelerations and hope to get a gap with a bit of chaos and indecision behind him. But multiple accelerations, if they don't work, will tire him and take the finish out of him. He is definitely in better shape than last year though, he admits that himself, so it is possible we could see a glorious crowning of the king of Paris Roubaix. 

But fairytales don't always come true as we know, so it's wise to have a few backup options - I think GVA will be a key player and he was a good price I thought when I started writing this preview earlier in the week at 10/1 for an each-way bet. Seems others thought so too as he has been cut to 8/1 but that's still ok - he has the power, the skills and the brain to win this and is in the form of his life. I think Kristoff, with a bit of luck finally, can get in to the winning break and has a big chance in the sprint - even if a solo rider or two go home alone, he could be best of the rest again like in MSR and Flanders. 

Sagan - I may live to regret this, but I think he might have issues tomorrow - I don't think he has been in a great emotional state of late and has not been himself, and last Sunday shook him up a bit I think. He could well be out of the frame and I can't back him at that price, in fact I think he might be worth taking on in a few matchbets at tasty prices. 

Whatever happens, it's going to be dramatic and spectacular and you can watch the whole race from start to finish, all six hours of madness. The Trouée d'Arenberg with 95kms to go sort of signals the start of the serious racing, so the last two and half hours are definitely worth watching, from about 1.30pm onwards. The weather will be good, but I'm hoping a Tornado blows in to the Velodrome at 4pm tomorrow afternoon.  

Recommendations:

Tom Boonen - I'm on at 12/1 and 9/1, the 9/2 with PP paying 4 places is just about acceptable, I'd hope for the top 4 at the very worst. 

Greg Van Avermaet - 1pt e/w at 8/1 with various paying 4 

Alexander Kristoff - 1pt each-way at 18/1 with PP paying 4

0.2pts each-way on Guillaume Van Keirsbulck at 150/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Florian Senechal at 200/1 with PP paying 4

0.2pts each-way on Stijn Vandenbergh at 200/1 with Skybet paying 4

Forecast with Slybet for a bit of fun - Boonen 1st, Kristoff wins the sprint for 2nd behind - 0.2pts at 50/1

Match-Bets:

Kristoff to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at evens with WillHill

Kristoff to beat Démare, EBH to beat Debusschere - 2pts at 5/4 with PP

Van Avermaet to beat Sagan - 2pts at 6/4 with WillHill

Durbridge to beat Rowe - 2.2pts at 8/11 with 365

This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch for Fantasy Cycling games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.

Here's my ten to watch for Paris Roubaix

1 Tom Boonen

2 Greg Van Avermaet

3 Alexander Kristoff

4 Oliver Naesen

5 Peter Sagan

6 Dylan Van Baarle

7 Stijn Vandenbergh

8 Florian Senechal

9 Niki Terpstra

10 John Degenkolb

Sign up with Zweeler Fantasy Cycling games today to play the Paris-Roubaix Fantasy game, there are over €2,000 in prizes to be won! If you sign up here you can receive a 100% deposit bonus up to €100! Click here to read more.