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Published on Friday, 31 March 2017 22:25

Tour of Flanders 2017

Sunday 2nd April, 260kms

The warm-ups have been bloody exciting.. From Yves Lampaert's stunning win in Dwars Door Vlaanderen, to Greg Van Avermaet's domination of Omloop Het Nieusblad, E3 Harelbeke and Gent-Wevelgem, we've had a treat of cobbled racing in the last few weeks.  

There have been all sorts of incidents for Peter Sagan, from his narrow defeat to GVA in the Omloop, to crashing and having bike problems in the E3, and then his rather incredible Mexican standoff with Nikki Terpstra in Gent Wevelgem.

That was quite an extraordinary finish to the race, with Sagan refusing to take up the chase of Van Avermaet and Keukeliere and Tersptra refusing to work. Sagan was having none of Terpstra's 'cheap games' and he preferred letting the race go up the road than carry some more QuickSteppers on his back. His comments afterwards were a mixture of arrogance, frustration and annoyance - he claimed he could decide who won or lost the race and that he couldn't understand why Terpstra worked so hard to get in the break, then refused to do any work.

You can see his point, but you can also see it from Terpstra's point of view, he knew he was not going to beat Sagan and Quickstep seemed to be all over the place and didn't know the right call to make. It was abysmal from Quick-Step again, to have so many guys in the front of the race at the crucial moments and come away with 6th place as the best result.

Stybar ripped it up with Trentin on the Ploegsteerts gravel roads, just because they like doing it, whereas they would probably have been better off saving their energy for when they needed it. In the end, their best placed rider was indeed Tom Boonen, as I thought it would be, but he had to settle for 6th place, notably ahead of Gaviria, who actually did quite well to be involved at the finish. 

So on to the 101st edition of the Ronde Van Vlaanderen, and a new route again from the organisers. After starting in Brugges for several years, they have now made a big shift to the east and are starting in Antwerp, the same city where the Scheldeprijs will start in on the following Wednesday. But the climax of the race remains the same, with the familiar and fantastic criss-cross of roads around Ronse, Kwaremont and Oudenaard.

Peter Sagan won this in tremendous style last year, by such a large margin he was able to pull wheelies after the finish line (above). He left his partner from the Kwaremont Sep Vanmarcke behind on the Paterberg with a powerful surge and despite Cancellara joining Vanmarcke in the chase they actually lost ground on Sagan as he soloed to victory. 

Alexander Kristoff was an impressive winner of the race in 2015, escaping with Niki Terpstra 28kms from home and holding their advantage despite a chase from Sagan and Van Avermaet from the top of the Paterberg. They passed us on the Kwaremont at warp speed and were fighting for a good line so much they banged shoulders like they were fighting for a final bend in a sprint. The way that Kristoff and Terpstra escaped though sums up how this race can be won and lost anywhere on the course and not just on the Kwaremont, Paterberg or Koppenberg.

As they reached the last uphill section of road just after the cobbles on the Kruisberg coming out of Ronse, Terpstra suddenly accelerated up the right, Kristoff followed him in what looked like a pretty innocuos sort of move, just testing the legs or lifting the pace a little. But they powered on and Geraint Thomas at the front of the peloton looked around for someone else to chase, and suddenly they had a gap that was never to be closed down again. 

The Route

Another change to the route this year, with the race now starting in Antwerp rather than Brugges like it has been doing in recent years, Antwerp paying €400,000 for the priviledge, twice what Brugges was paying. The race is also 5kms longer than last year's race at 255kms, but still 5kms shorter than it was in 2015. After starting in Antwerp, they now head south-west to take them to Oudenaard and as they approach the town they hit the first stretches of pavé, the Lippenhoevstraat after 85.2kms and the Paddestraat just 1.4kms later. Then it's through Oudenaard with 103kms gone and on to the more familiar loops and the decisive section of the course again.

They then head out towards the Kwaremont, but on a different road to the one they will be coming back on for the final kilometres of the race, this time heading out south of the river Oude. They don't do the Tiegemberg which was introduced last year, but instead the first hill they hit after 115kms will be the first passage of the Oude Kwaremont, generally taken at a pretty sedate pace compared to the next two passages, and that's followed 11kms later by the Kortekeer, a climb they didn't use last year. 

They are now on the twisting, criss-crossing loop south-east of Oudenaarde, where they take in more of the 'Hellingen' or cobbled climbs, including the Eikenberg, Wolveberg, Leberg, but these are just appetisers to the main course still to come. They also cross the Berendries after 149kms which returned to the race two years ago after a two-year absence. They then take a completely different route to last year's, and instead of going over the Valkenberg they head south-east towards Gerardsbergen and take on the Tenbosse and legendary Muur-Kappelmuur of Gerardsbergen, making a welcome return to the race. 

They then loop back west and head on to the decisive part of the race, making their second ascent up the Oude Kwaremont after 205kms, meaning there are now just 55kms left to race, and the pace is now 'full gas', This is followed just 4km later by the first passage of the Paterberg. There might be a selection made on the Kwaremont or Paterberg, but usually the favourites tend to wait for the next time around as there are still 50kms to go, but we've seen already in some races this year that riders are prepared to attack earlier and from unexpected places. .

Just 6kms later though we should see some fireworks when they hit the Koppenberg. I have ridden this a few times and there are some key points as to why it can be decisive. First, they come to it very fast on a downhill section of road. Then it's a sharp right turn in to a really narrow funnel. The barriers stick out quite a lot on the road so the width they can pass is only about 3m wide at the entrance.

Secondly, the climb is short, but steep (up to 20%) and rough and it narrows even more the further up it goes, it's barely wide enough for a car. And finally, the cobbles are slippy! Even on a dry day your back wheel struggles to grip the cobbles. And don't even think about standing on the pedals, this is strictly a sit-down climb. (right)

Positioning will be crucial coming in to the Paterberg and it almost always makes a selection of some sort, easing the weaker riders out the back. Those unfortunate to have a touch of wheels, or stall behind someone end up having to run up the rest of the climb and that's the end of their race usually. Just 5km later they hit the Steebeekdries and 3km later the Taaienberg,

Three years ago it was Greg Van Avermaet who went on the attack and again last year he attacked just at the very top to go in chase of Lutsenko who was up the road. And we've seen in the recent E3 how important this climb can be in splitting up a race.

Next up is the Kruisberg as they leave Ronse, which is 1km long at 6%. It is dark and quite rough and an important point about this climb is that as you come off the cobbles the road still rises a little more on the regular road surface and the strong men push on here as the weaker flounder to get to the top of the cobbled section. It's where Terpstra and Kristoff made their move two years ago.. 

Then on to the Oude Kwaremont again.. It's not the steepest at 4.2% average but it does go on for 2.3kms and is very rough - there are large ruts and high ridges in the road, so if you can't get a clean line you bounce all over the road. When you are tired and suffering after 233kms, every cobble can feel like a sledgehammer against your front wheel, jolting and shaking your shoulders and arms.

It's where we can expect the final selection to take shape - four years ago, Cancellara put the hammer down and rode away from all bar Sagan. Three years ago he did the same, taking only Vanmarcke with him and they set off in pursuit of Van Avermaet and Vandenbergh. Two years ago Kristoff and Terpstra pressed home their advantage ahead of the chasing pack, gaining an advantage that wasn't to be reeled in again. 

What also makes this section so decisive is that just 3km later, with the lactic acid still burning in their legs they face a second ascent of the Paterberg. It may only be 380m long but its 13.7% average gradient at this point in the race rips things apart again, it hits 20% in parts and it's where a lot of riders crack and lose their chances, or where others can make a decisive move, like GVA and Sagan two year's ago who left the rest behind to go in pursuit of Terpstra and Kristoff and on to 3rd and 4th place, and where Sagan disposed of his companions last year and soloed to victory.

From the top there's only 13km left to the finish along the familiar run-in to Oudenaarde and the long, flat finishing straight. On such a short run-in, strong men with 20-30" advantage can hold on to their lead, anything less than 20" with a strong chasing pack and you could see it come back together before the finish.

The Weather

It looks like being a disappointing day for those who were hoping for a wet and muddy Flanders. The forecast is for a day of sunshine, with temperatures around 14-15°, no rain and hardly any wind. The roads will be mostly dry too as the forecast for the whole week is good and it should lead to a very fast race. It may be safer from a slippy course point of view, but with the pace high, and maybe more riders than usual involved at key points it could still get dangerous, and expect to see several crashes, which add to the lottery of the race. 

Contenders and Favourites

Sagan, Sagan, Sagan. We find ourselves yet again wondering what Peter Sagan will get up to in a race where he has been the hot favourite for months. Winner, no, destroyer of the race last year on his own, it looked not so long ago like all he had to do was turn up here and leave them all behind for another solo victory. Almost-winner of KBK, winner of OHN, 2 stage wins in Tirreno, almost-winner of Milan Sanremo, he was almost unbeatable... almost, but GVA and Kwiatkowski seem to have the indian sign over Sagan now, they beat him far more often than seems logical.

Then Dwars Door came and it all went pear-shaped - a crash, a mechanical.. and an injury? There was no official word about his condition, but he didn't look 100% to me on Sunday in Gent-Wevelgem and when I said so on Twitter, someone said there were rumours going around he had hurt himself in the crash. He was loitering and toiling around the back quite a bit during the race, but then ripped it up the Kememelberg the last time up it, helping to split the race, the splits that eventually went on to contest the win.

Maybe he wasn't feeling great all day but gave it a blast to see how hard he could push himself, but once he had got the gap with Terpstra he didn't really have the legs to do much more, and maybe he wanted to look after himself with the Ronde coming. Maybe, and it would explain why he was not prepared to push himself any harder and tow Terpstra back to GVA.

So, what about Sunday then? Well, if he has recovered from a knock, then he probably wins. It's all about the Ronde and Roubaix, he sort of showed that in GW when he would rather lose it to teach Quick-Step a lesson, and he has more or less said the same in interviews this week. He will come here with his race-face again, but his team is weak and he'll be on his own more or less for the last 50kms. And 15/8 is a very short price to take for such a crazy hard race to try to win. He's been the beaten favourite at short odds for his last three starts, at 3/1, 9/4 and 5/2, his backers were left seething after a crash in E3 and his refusal to work in GW cost two wins.

Greg Van Avermaet has to be his biggest rival for this, he's even admitting now that he is favourite for the race with the form he's in, and as the race goes past his house this year he's even more motivated than ever. He had a great year in 2016, and this year is shaping up to be even better. He has all the skills for this race and seems to be riding smarter than ever as well, which is a big plus in a race like this. He came to grief here last year, but in the four years before that he finished 3rd, 2nd, 7th and 4th.

He needs to try to break it up again on maybe the Taaienberg or the Paterberg if he sees Sagan under any sort of pressure, try to force a split wih the likes of Gilbert, Terpstra, Vanmarcke and an Orica guy or two. If he can have a mixture like that with him, there will be very few left to help Sagan chase and he'll be left do it all on his own. That's the way to beat him.  He's in the form of his life, he's got a great team with him, you would think he has to be in the first three.. but at 7/2 he's not much of an each-way bet.. 

Philippe Gilbert.. who'd have predicted a month ago he'd be starting this race as the 3rd favourite and a shorter price than Tom Boonen?!? Well, following his electirfying last two weeks of action, in which he has finished 2nd in both the DDV and E3 and destroyed the field in the first stage of the Three Days of De Panne, he has been backed in to as short as 7/1 from 40/1 a few weeks back. There is 12/1 available in places, though, but the question is, what will Quick-Step's tactics be, and will they actually be able to stick to them and execute them?

Tom Boonen was supposed to be their main man for this, the three-time winner on his last time up the famous hellingen of Flanders. As it is though, he hasn't really shown in the prep races that he is going to be taking out Sagan and Van Avermaet on Sunday, so the 33/1 on him looks about right, he has more chance Sunday week in Paris-Roubaix maybe.

Instead, they will also look to Terpstra to make up for last Sunday's mess in Gent-Wevelgem and Zdenek Stybar, Matteo Trentin and Yves Lampaert to be aggressive when they need to be, and be there in support for Gilbert and Boonen when needed. They need to follow Van Avermaet and Sagan's moves every time with at least one guy, as the race-deciding move is bound to come from one of them.

Niki Terpstra of course broke away with Kristoff on the Kwaremont two years ago (right) and they went all the way to the finish where Kristoff won the sprint. Terpstra may have a point to make this weekemd after the farce that was his stand-off with Sagan, what better way to put it right than to break away again on the Kwaremont and challenge for the win. Yves Lampaert did brilliantly in Dwars Door to solo to victory, they might send him up the road earlier again on Sunday to see if he can get away in a winning move, or at least be up there to support the likes of Gilbert, Terpstra or Boonen if they go on the attack themselves later on. 

And Zdenek Stybar - he has finished 36th, 18th, 9th and 8th in the last four years, so he's getting closer every year. When he finished 8th last year he was with the first chase group that were fighting for 4th place, similarly in 2015 he finished in the first main group with Degenkolb, so he's got the power and the ability, just has lacked the explosive punch when needed most. It could well be the same this year, he could be a good outside shout for a top 4 with Corals at 25/1. 

Oliver Naesen has been a rider I've admired for a few years, as any of you who are regular readers will know, I've been backing him in cobbled classics for a few years, but of course, the one time he podiums I'm not on him! He has been riding better than ever this spring and has been involved in the pointy end of all the key warm-up races, with 7th in OHN, 8th in KBK, 6th in DDV and that 3rd place in E3. He's coming to an age where he will just get better and better in the next 4 years and I think he will be winning these races sooner rather than later.

He will be tracking Sagan and Van Avermaet, he should be able to stay with them on the Kwaremont, but the Paterberg will be the big challenge for him after 246kms and a very busy month.. Even if he goes to the finish with them though he would finish 3rd of the three in a sprint, and he doesn't look like he is capable to attack away on his own at the end of a race. He's got a strong ally in Stijn Vandenbergh, a man very familiar with the roads of Flanders but he's been having a rough time of it lately with crashes, hopefully he's 100% fit and ready to support Naesen. 

Fourth and fifth favourites for the race are two very similar riders - John Degenkolb and Alexander Kristoff. Both are tough 'hard men' that are familiar with these roads, comfortable on cobbles and well able to endure a race of 260kms.

Alexander Kristoff shades favouritism between the two at around 14/1 and comes here after a mixed start to the year. He had a blistering start, where he racked up four wins and two 2nd places in the six road stages that he was able to contest the finish, it looked like he was going to be have a great season.

He didn't have a great opening cobbles weekend though with a DNF in OHN and 21st in KBK but followed that up with a 3rd and a 2nd in Paris Nice, the 3rd being a sprint 'win' behind the breakaway Alaphilippe and Démare, the 2nd was behind Bennett, but ahead of Kittel, Degenkolb, Greipel and Démare.

He again 'won' the sprint in MSR for 4th, but had disappointed so far in the Flanders preps, he really hadn't been at the races in terms of competing, fading away whenever the race got serious, and again on Tuesday in the first stage of the 3 Days he was unable to go with the Gilbert move, although he again 'won' the sprint from his little group for 7th place.

Things took a turn though on Wednesday when he out-battled hot, hot favourite Marcel Kittel for the second stage (above), launching his sprint from 200m out and holding on from Edward Theuns who took an excellent 2nd place. This might just have changed Kristoff's chances for Sunday with a shot of confidence and belief. He followed that with a 2nd to Kittel on the next stage, but he really should have won given the chase Kittel had to make, and an impressive 3rd place in the 14km TT. A week ago I'd have said he wasn't going to be involved in the finish here, now I'm not so sure, the power seems to be coming to him at just the right time and he's starting to get me interested. 

John Degenkolb hasn't a brilliant record in Flanders, with 7th in 2015 his best result, followed by 9th in 2013. He missed out on last year's race with his injuries, but has been building slowly up to coming back in time for the big spring Classics. A stage win in Dubai and nine top 5 places already this season shows that he's competive, but top fives rather than wins shows that he still hasn't quite reached the peaks he was at two years ago. 7th in MSR (beaten by Gaviria, Kristoff and Demare), 13th in E3 and 5th in Gent Wevelgem, 'winning' the bunch sprint ahead of Boonen were respectable results, but can he really step it up to winning against the guys mentioned above? It's a big ask, but you can never rule out a Paris-Roubaix winner. 

Geraint Thomas, 25/1? Nah, you're alright, I'll keep going. Luke Rowe 40/1? I'd rather back him next week when he has some little chance, I don't think he's going to be able to stick with GVA and Sagan. Ian Stannard might have a chance of staying close too, but again, if you wanted to back him I'd suggest saving it for Roubaix where there are no hills. 

And so on to Lotto-Soudal.. their classics season so far has been a disappointment, by their lofty standards and expectations anyway, with the only one-day successes so far this year coming from the three wins by Wellens and Greipel in Majorca at the very start of the season. A lot of pressure and expectations were heaped upon Tiesj Benoot's 23 year-old shoulders, and if it was most other riders you'd be saying his results of 4th in KBK, 8th in MSR, 7th in DDV and 14th in the E3 were excellent for a 23 year-old. But more was expected of him, so to not even make a podium is disappointing for them.

He got caught up in the crash though in OHN, and he was never going to beat Sagan in KBK, but to finish 4th to disappoint his e/w backers was annoying for them. He missed the Gilbert move, like most, in Dwars Door, but finished 3rd of the chasers, I think he'll be right up there again on Sunday, but whether he can go with the top guys on the Paterberg is another question and it may be that he will have to settle for another 4th to 10th placing. He's as big as 50/1 though, so if he does have a good day and make a podium spot you'll be well rewarded.

Lotto also have Tony Gallopin and André Greipel here and it wouldn't surprise me to see one, or even both of them try to get in the break of the day to take pressure off them to chase. Greipel is no stranger to going on attacks in races like this, he's done it a few times. Gallopin could be a good foil to have up the road later on when a favourites group catch the break. 

Luke Durbridge has been having a blast on the cobbles this spring, probably his best spring campaign to date. 12th in KBK, 6th in Strade Bianche, 4th in Dwars Door, 4th in E3 and a TT stage win and a 2nd place in the three days of de Panne is a tremendous set of results, more so from a guy who's not a known cobbled rider. He was caught out by Gilbert on stage 2 of De Panne though and lost 2'39" and all chances of winning, despite his win in the final TT. 

I think that he will be right up there for most of the race, but I he could be found wanting in the last 20kms - Mitch Docker and Paris-Roubaix winner Matthew Hayman will be invaluable in looking after him. Form counts for so much in a race like this though, and he is in such good form I think I have to have him onside at 50/1. The only Monument that Orica-Scott have not won yet is Flanders, could Durbridge change that?!

They also have a lively outsider in Jens Keukeleire, who finally went and did something of note in Gent Wevelgem, jumping away with Van Avermaet and hanging with him to take 2nd place. That was just after showing some good form in E3 to finish 12th place, The best he has managed in Flanders though is 19th two years ago and he may be asked to try to hold back with the likes of Sagan while Durbridge tries to get away a bit earlier. He rode very well in GW, very prominent at all the right times, he will have his backers at 66/1 with Coral paying 4 places. 

Arnaud Démare and Fabio Felline are similarly priced around 66/1 and they are in a similar sort of situation - if they are on a really, really good day, and the race is a little less full on than usual, then they might just about make it to the finish in a small bunch. But that's a tall ask. Jasper Stuyven and Jurgen Roelandts are similar also in price and in that they are very strong guys who go well on the cobbled hills of Flanders, but neither have shown enough for me this year to suggest they are going to be challenging for the win.

Sep Vanmarcke - a month ago I'd have been writing about him at the top of this preview, probably as 3rd or 4th favourite, but he's had a rough few weeks following his 3rd place in OHN. A crash in Strade Bianche hit him pretty hard and he had to pull out of the Indsutria & Artigianato the next day too. A non-descript Tirreno was followed by disappointing results in Dwars Door and E3, where he was getting sick towards the end of E3 and had a lack of power to stay with the leaders. Since then he has taken a break though and the team says that he is fit and well and ready to go. But I've got my concerns about him coming back from that in such a brutal race, he may struggle at the business end of the race again.

Instead though I have a sneaking feeling that Dylan Van Baarle (above) can have a big race this year. He's riding really well of late, finishing 8th in Dwars Door and 9th in E3. He finished 6th here last year and if Vanmarcke isn't up for it then Cannondale can quickly change to looking after Van Baarle and he could go close again at a massive 150/1 with Paddy Power, or even the 100/1 with Skybet paying 4 places is worth a nibble. Ryan Mullen may well fancy a day in the break again too, he seems to be enjoying himself lately on the road.

The only other long-shot I'm going to have a go at is Dimitri Claeys, purely on the basis that he finished 9th here last year with the same group as Kristoff and Van Baarle. He hasn't shown much this year yet, but was caught out by crashes in OHN and KBK, but he hadn't shown anything last year either before his 9th place last year, and at 400/1 he's worth a few pennies. Or if you fancy the safety of a 4th place, he's 200/1 with Corals. 

Conclusion

So.. Sagan wins, right? Well I was very confident of him ahead of last year's race and backed him at 9/2 - I was roaring him on in a field full of drunk Belgians watching it on some guys TV they were powering with a little generator.. It was a good day..  Unfortunately, or rather stupidly, I will not be going this year, despite having it all booked, as I discovered too late that my passport had expired. I'll try to enjoy it at home, but will be sick watching them ride up the Kwaremont, knowing I should be there. 

Sagan holds the key of course, but maybe Greg Van Avermaet has the spare key and is sure to be an instigator of chaos Sunday. He'll blow it up on the Taaienberg, he'll attack when you don't even expect it on random parts of the course, you need to watch him at all times. Quick-Step will have a huge influence on the outcome of this race too and it might be Gilbert who it is that kicks it all off. It's likely they will have 4-5 guys in the lead group with 60kms to go as they hit the crucial part of the race, but how many will be left as they crest the Paterberg with 13kms to go? Hard to know.. but if they have Terpstra, Gilbert and Stybar close enough they might be able to catch Sagan and/or Van Avermaet if they are just 10-20" ahead of them. 

There is always someone comes to grief in this race, be it from a crash, puncture or just getting caught at the wrong side of a split, so luck plays a major part in it. I have Sagan in a season-long treble at 2/1 (with Quintana for the Giro and Froome for the Tour) but I don't think I'll be backing him on the day at just 15/8 now. There is 9/4 on Betfair exchange though, if that gets up towards 3/1 I might be interested as a trading bet.

I'd like to back Vanmarcke, but can't bring myself to do so and I think Gilbert is too short now at around 9/1. I think it all points to Greg Van Avermaet though and he looks to be so strong at the moment - If he has a clear round he will be in the front group, very likely to be in the first 3 and is very capable of pulling off the win against Sagan in the sprint as we know. But I have a sneaky feeling that Alexander Kristoff is capable of getting in to the frame, especially with the four places - we might see a single rider or 2/3 fight out the win with a group of the best of the rest coming in around 30-40" behind them, and Kristoff can win that sprint. If luck goes his way, and he's on a really good day he could even win it. Luke Durbridge, Dimitri Claeys and Dylan Van Baarle are my long shots of glory.

Whatever happens, this race is always epic, always brilliant, I can't wait. I just wish I was on the roadside and not on my sofa.. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Alexander Kristoff at 14/1 with Skybet paying four places

1pt win on Greg Van Avermaet at 3.4/1 on Betfair Exchange

0.25pts each-way on Dylan Van Baarle at 100/1 with Paddy Power paying four places

0.1pts each-way on Dimitri Claeys at 300/1 with Paddy Power paying four places

0.5pts each-way on Luke Durbridge at 50/1 with Coral paying four places

Matchbets

Van Baarle to beat Lutsenko, EBH to beat Pozzato, Boonen to beat Greipel - 2pts on the treble at 2/1

Add Durbridge to beat Erviti to make a four-fold - 2pts at 3/1 with Bet365

Kristoff to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at 5/6 with PP

Van Keirsbulck to beat Chavanel - 2pts at 5/6

Marcato to beat Gatto and Durbridge to beat Erviti - 2pts at 5/4 with PP

Here are my top ten riders to watch for those of you out there that like playing Zweeler Fantasy Games - the prize fund for this year's Flanders is over €2,000!

Here's my ten to watch for Tour of Flanders

1 Greg Van Avermaet

2 Peter Sagan

3 Philippe Gilbert

4 Teisj Benoot

5 Zdenek Stybar

6 Alexander Kristoff

7 Dylan Van Baarle

8 Luke Durbridge

9 Niki Terpstra

10 Dimitri Claeys

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