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Published on Sunday, 26 March 2017 00:05

Gent Wevelgem 

Sunday 26th March, 249kms

The racing is coming thick and fast now, DVV was won in spectacular fashion on Wednesday by the Quickstep boys, followed by a dramatic E3 Harelbeke on Friday, won in brilliant style by Greg Van Avermaet. The Flanders festival of cycling moves on to Gent on Sunday for what is traditionally a Classic for the sprinters, in Gent Wevelgem.

There was indeed plenty of drama in E3 Harelbeke, with a surprise result in Greg Van Avermaet taking it, I don't think many had picked Van Avermaet for it, bizarre as that may sound. He reportedly had a cold during the week, he was apparently gone off the boil a little bit lately to try to peak for Flanders, but he defied everyone by stealing his first E3, a race he has never really excelled in before. But the big surprise was how easy he, Naesen and Gilbert were allowed to get away, they got a small gap, so small they could almost touch them, yet they didn't bridge.

Sagan played it far too cool, Stybar and Trentin and the other Quicksteppers didn't have to chase, Benoot was in trouble after a puncture and Vanmarcke had crashed moments before and was sick too.. And no one else seemed to have the strength. It was a poor display from Lotto-Soudal, Trek, Cannondale and everyone else. And then Sagan crashed and any chance the chasers had maybe of getting them back was gone as he struggled with his brake/gear lever, almost looking like the rear derailleur was not working after the crash.

Gent Wevelgem is another step though towards the monuments to come in the weeks ahead. It may have its cobbled sections, including the famous Kemmelberg, but it is generally a sprinters race, hence a lot of the big sprinting guns are here - a lot, but not all - no Kittel, Cavendish, Greipel or Bouhanni.  

Peter Sagan won this race last year from Sep Vanmarcke in a break of four with Kuznetsov and Cancellara, with Démare winning the sprint for 5th. Luca Paolini won an amazing edition of the race in 2015 when he soloed away to victory on a miserable, wet and cold day. 2014 saw a proper sprint, John Degenkolb getting the better of Démare and Sagan with Vanmarcke in 4th.

Sagan won this pulling wheelies in 2013 after soloing away in the last 4kms from a group of 10 in a race that had been shortened by some 90kms because of extremely cold weather conditions. But with the wind often having a major impact on the race it's not always a big bunch that gets to fight out the finish. Edvald Boasson Hagen (09), Bernie Eisel (10), Boonen (12) and Sagan (13) have won from reduced bunches and small breaks. 

Tom Boonen has a great record in this race, like in most Belgian Classics, winning it in 2012 and 2011 and again as far back as 2004 when he beat Magnus Backsted as a prodigious 23-year old. 

The Route 

The race is similar to last year's route, but they have extended the length again by 9kms, to make it the longest edition of the race in at least 20 years, if not ever (I didn't have data past 1996..). So 249kms of hilly Belgian roads, only 11kms less than this year's Ronde Van Vlaanderen, it's going to be a real test. And not only that, but they have introduced a new feature to the race to honour the fallen of World War I with sections of 'Ploegsteerts'

It starts in Deinze and not in Gent as the name might have you think, and heads in a west direction towards the coast until they reach Adinkerken and then start heading south back inland. Things start to get interesting (unless the winds near the coast have already caused splits) when they reach the south-western corner of the course and head in to the Hellingen, or cobbled climbs. 

There are nine key Hellingen, (well 11 if you count the fact they do the Kemmelberg and the Banenberg twice) which could cause breaks to go and splits to happen, they are listed in the graphic below. The first one, the Casselberg comes after 136kms and the last time up the Kemmelberg comes with just with 34kms to go, 8kms further from the finish than last year. The Casselberg, or Mont Cassel as it is known, may be cobbled but there are large sections of it that have been tarmacked over so it isn't all that difficult on the face of it, but it hits 19% in parts!

The Kemmelberg is similar in that it is partly paved, partly cobbled but can be very rough in parts and is one of the steepest slopes in the whole country. The ascent is steep and rough, but the descent is even worse - a very narrow, dangerous track that barely passses as a road. It has been used as a launch pad for attacks before, such as in 2007 when Marcus Burghardt blew it apart on the descent with four others before he went on to win. Same the year before when Hushovd won it after escaping with a bunch of 32 riders on the roads after the top of the Kemmelberg.

That and the Monteberg are the last opportunities for breaks to go so the sprinters and their teams will need to be on their guard as the run in to the finish is pretty flat and straight and perfect for setting up their speedsters. it was also of course where Sagan made his race-winning move last year. 

The weather can often play a big part in this race, but it looks like it will be a pretty good day tomorrow in northern Belgium, with no rain forecast. There is a 10-11mph easterly wind which will be a tailwind for the opening section of the race, a cross-wind which could cause echelons and splits in the busy 2nd third of the race and a headwind on the way back to Wevelgem.

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Contenders and Favourites

There is a possibility that the race will be split up in the cross-winds and possibly because of crashes so it could be a strange old race where we see a surprise result like in the Dwars Door on Wednesday with Lampaert winning. It is possible that it will come down to a bunch sprint though, given the long run in to the finish from the last Hellingen, but with the likes of Sagan, Van Avermaet and Gilbert and the Quick-Steppers in the race, that is far from guaranteed. 

Once again we are left to ponder as to what will happen with Peter Sagan. He was a hot favourite to win E3 but had a disaster, he looked like the winner of E3 in 2015 but had a hunger knock. He blew this race up last year and won from a group of four, going on the Kemmelberg, and it could well be the same again this year. And it's not like he needs to hold back to save energy for the Ronde, he won this last year and soloed to victory in the Ronde a week later.

The race probably revolves around him again, does he rip it up on the Kemmelberg the first time to reduce the field and then again the second time up it to make the final selection or go off solo. He needs to do less work than he sometimes does, take less turns, less wasteful power surges and let others do the work.. And if he does get in to a little group that goes up the road, but it looks like it isn't getting a big enough gap, Sagan can sit in and play the 'We've got Bennett behind for the sprint" line and not work as much at all.

And speaking of which, I kind of fancy Sam Bennett as a big-priced outsider here.. He's got a chance of hanging in there over this course, as long as he doesn't get detached on the Kemmelberg, And if it's a reduced group sprint he'd have a chance.. And what's more, Bennett's mum is heading over to Belgium to meet him at the race, big motivation for Sammy to do well then!

Quick-Step will be key to the outcome of the race though, they have a wealth of options again with a dream-team of Belgian race specialists. Philippe Gilbert is in the best form for years, Tom Boonen quietly finished an impressive 8th in E3 on Friday and Terpstra, Vermote, Terpstra, Trentin, Keisse and Dwars Door hero Yves Lampaert are all capable of causing all sorts of carnage out on the road. And should things come back together for a bunch sprint they have probably the best fall-back sprinter in the race with Fernando Gaviria.

I'm not sure to be honest Gaviria will be there though, and it might come down to Gilbert, Terpstra, Stybar, Boonen and Trentin trying to stay with Sagan when he goes.. We could have some, we could have all of them.. and then it would have to be advantage Quick-Step in the run-in, they will have powerful cards to play. Boonen is a great substitute for Gaviria in the sprint, Boonen could have a big chance of a big result here too I believe.

Greg Van Avermaet is BMC's best hope here, the rest of them are good work horses, but you can't really see any of them winning it. Van Avermaet was superb in E3, catching a lot of the others on the hop with his acceleration up to Gilbert, and working hard for the next 5kms or so to just stretch the lead far enough to break the chase's resolve. And there was only going to be one winner in that sprint in the end, Van Avermaet has really become a killer in his races, from being the nearly man a few years back.

He should be right up there at the front again and can match Sagan's accelerations so he has to be a big player again in this. He is nicely coming to the boil ahead of Flanders and looks confident and ready.

Lotto-Soudal had a disappointing week really, with Benoot suffering a puncture in E3 just before the Taaienberg so missed the big move of the day, but he was strong enough to pull himself back in to contention. He's not here tomorrow though as he's taking a break ahead of the Ronde, but Jurgen Roelandts has been talking a very positive, confident game ahead of this race and he thinks he can pull off a big result here. He went ok in KBK and OHN, and on a hillier sort of race like this he might come to the fore.They have a back-up sprinter in Jens Debusschere, if the race does come back together for a reduced group sprint.   

AG2R will be relying on Oliver Naesen again, or possibly Stijn Vandenbergh if he has recovered from his crash in E3, Naesen gets better and better with each race, but the Flanders roads suit him a bit better I think than these roads and hills and it may well be that E3 took a lot out of him so I'm passing over him tomorrow. Let's just hope that he doesn't go and pull off another good result when I don't have money on him, I've been a fan of his for a few years and backing him to no avail, then he pulls off a fine 3rd place on Friday. 

Sep Vanmarcke has decided to take a break and try to recover after his last few races, he was throwing up for the last kilometres in E3. Instead Cannondale will look to Dylan Van Baarle and Sebastian Langeveld, or maybe even Wouter Wippert for the sprint if he is able to hang in there. 

FDJ have a lively contender though in Arnaud Démare, he skipped E3 on Friday and instead prepared for this race by doing a motor-paced recon of the Gent Wevelgem's route with Julien Pinot, FDJ's sport scientist (right). He was 5th in this race last year, leading home the chasers and 2nd in 2014, and he has also finished 12th and 15th so knows well how to get around this course. He has the right combination of skills and strength to hang in there if it hasn't been blown apart, and the speed to win the sprint, and as a winner of MSR, we know he is not afraid of a long hard race like this.

Alexander Kristoff and John Degenkolb are two of the top five in the betting, with Kristoff shading it in the betting around 7/1 with Degenkolb around 11/1. They are both very similar in that if they can hang in there, they would be top 3 in the sprint possibly, but it's staying there is the challenge, they were just not good enough to stay with the attacks in E3 and I worry that it will be the same again here, so am reluctant to back either of them. 

And there are lots of otherswith outside chances. Dylan Groenewegen rode very well on Wednesday in DDV 'winning' the sprint for 5th place, then skipped E3 to recover and prepare for this. He only entered this race once in 2015, and he was disqualified, but he comes here this time with a good team and an outsiders chance of being up there for a reduced sprint, should it come down to one.   

Sonny Colbrelli, Michael Matthews, Caleb Ewan, Alexey Lutsenko, Edward Theuns, Fabio Felline, Luke Rowe, Sacha Modolo.. they could all be involved, or none of them could be involved, it probably all depends on how Sagan and Van Avermaet race this. I think Sagan has to be the no.1 pick here again, but he's quite short.. If you do fancy him for this, then put him in a double to win this and next Sunday's Tour of Flanders, as I think he will win that - Ladbrokes pay 9.3/1 on the double, I'm going to have a small saver on that in case.

But I like Arnaud Demare's chances here, with outside shouts on Sam Bennett, Jurgen Roelandts and Tom Boonen to deliver a thrilling result for the locals ahead of the Ronde. 

Recommendations:

Tom Boonen - 0.5pts each-way at 18/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places

Jurgen Roelandts - 0.3pts each-way at 66/1 with Ladbrokes or Skybet paying 4 places

Arnaud Démare - 1pt each-way at 14/1 with Bet365

Sam Bennett  - 0.3pts each-way at 50/1 with Bet365

Match Bets:

Van Baarle to beat Keukeleire, GVA to beat Naesen - 4pts at 5/4

Add Kristoff to beat Groenewegen to make it a treble - 2pts at 5/2

Démare to beat Degenkolb - 2pts at 11/10