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- Published on Sunday, 12 March 2017 23:33
Tirreno Adriatico 2016
Stages 6 and 7
A quick look at the remaing two stages of Tirreno Adriatico.. It's been a fantastic race so far, with Peter Sagan taking another fantastic victory on the uphill finish in Fermo.
Now that Paris Nice is over I've got a little time to take a look at the final stages in Tirreno.. We'd a good winner today with Peter Sagan landing the fantastic odds of 14/1, doing exactly what I expected him to do, getting back on in the false flat and powering to victory up the final hill.
Stage 6
Ascoli Piceno to Civitanova Marche
Monday, March 13th, 159kms
A short enough stage at 159kms, They head north from Ascoli Piceno and skirt past yesterday's stage roads around Fermo but carry on past and eventually head out towards the coast and to the finish town of Civitanova Marche. The road is up and down all day but they eventually pass through the finish line and start a final circuit of 15.2kms.
The first part runs flat from the seafront to the city centre, with traffic dividers and a wide underpass with a central pillar on the course. A mild climb, approx. 4 km in length, leads to Civitanova Marche, followed by a technical descent leading back to the seafront. The last 4 km are on straight roads, with just two wide-ranging bends just before the final kilometre.
It's most likely to end in a sprint finish, it should all come back together before the final circuit and we'll have the sprint teams controlling it over the last 15kms. There is the little climb with 9kms to go, but it's short at around 2kms in total of climbing. After that it's around 4kms of a straight and flat charge to the line and we are sure to see the sprint trains tear it up along the Riva Verde.
Fernando Gaviria didn't have much luck in the only sprint stage they've had so far, when in the approach to Montalto di Castro, a touch of wheels in front of him, a ripple in the bunch and all of a sudden he practically came to a standstill.. Would he have beaten Sagan on that uphill finish? Hard to know, Sagan was absolutely flying and Gaviria seemed to be struggling to hold his place. But this is a different matter entirely and I think Quick-Step will do a far better job of delivering him in the right place at the right time this time. He has an outstanding lineup with him here, with Jungels, Terpstra, Stybar, Boonen, Keisse and Trentin and I think they will swarm to the front in the last 4kms, and deliver Gaviria for the knockout punch in the last 300m.
Mark Cavendish is his biggest danger probably, he has been sprinting ok this year with a 1st and a 2nd in Abu Dhabi, but he hasn't looked his usual dominant self in other sprints and has disappointed on a number of occassions. He has Eisel, Renshaw, Boasson Hagen and the rest but I think if my money was on one team to do better than the other it's Quickstep all day for me, and Gaviria over Cav all day as well.
Peter Sagan is just getting better and better and better, winning the uphill sprint to Montalto, and then outsprinting some of the best climbers in the race in the uphill finish today in stage 5. He is going so well that he could be right in the mix even in a flat sprint like this. I think today might have taken a lot out of him though and he doesn't want to wear himself out too much with the Classics to come, he's had a good training run out so far in Italy.
Elia Viviani came closest to him on stage 3, it was impressive from Viviani and he almost took victory. Sky have an ok team here, not the best for a leadout, but a lot of strong guys, and anyway, Viviani doesn't want or need assistance in the last kilometres, he'll surf the wheels of the Quick-Step and Dimension Data guys. He might come close to a top 3 so might offer a little bit of value at 11/2.
Sacha Modolo came close too on Stage 2, sprinting to 4th place behind Sagan, Viviani and the surprise 3rd place Jurgen Roelandts. Modolo will like this flat sprint a lot more, and if anything were to happen in a messy sprint to Viviani, or if Sagan decides to back out of it a little, Modolo could offer good value at 20/1.
After that you have the likes of Matteo Pelucchi and Luca Mezgec at 28/1, but they are not on the same level as the top 3 sprinters here. Jasper Stuyven and Greg Van Avermaet might try something on the little hill on the run to the finish, but I'm doubtful they can last all the way to the line out front. Fabio Felline looks big at 50/1 if he can get involved and Edward Michael Grosu looks massive at 80/1, he too got caught up in the near-crash in stage 2, but he took a superb 2nd place in Oman behind Kristoff.
I think it's Gaviria's stage for the taking though, but Modolo and Grosu offer some value at big odds each-way, or if you want a slightly safer each-way, Viviani is capable of a top 3 place too.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Fernando Gaviria at 2/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Sacha Modolo at 20/1 with Bet365
0.2pts each-way on Michael Eward Grosu at 80/1 with 365
Matchbets
Grosu to beat Lobato, Gaviria to beat Sagan and Modolo to beat Mezgec - 2pts at 11/4 with 365
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Stage 7
Stage 7 - San Benedetto Del Tronto
Tuesday, March 14th, 10kms
So a good day today with Gaviria landing the win for us and the treble also coming in. I think we were lucky/unlucky with Modolo.. He damaged his wheel on the descent back towards the finish, and despite being up there with Roberto Ferrari in the top 10 the wheel running against his break meant he eased up with about 200m to go and freewheeled to the finish. I think we were very unlucky with that as Ferrari could have guided him in to position to challenge Stuyven for 3rd place, I think he is capable of beating him in any sprint. But despite that, we were lucky I guess that Mezgec was not in the first part of the peloton who passed Modolo on the line, or he'd have lost the matchbet too.
As it was, Gaviria's win at 2/1 and the 11/4 matchbet notched up 10pts profit to go with the 9pts won on Sagan on Sunday.. I think I should have just stuck to Tirreno this week instead of Paris-Nice.. Grosu wasn't far off either, finishing 8th, to help land the treble.
It was a chaotic last 8kms or so, with Nibali attacking on the final climb, Felline and Terpstra attacking on the way down, Sagan chasing after them and the race blowing to pieces. Gaviria did brilliant to go after Sagan, in the kind of move that could see him win Milan San Remo on Sunday. Splits in the bunch meant that Cav never got in a blow, and Sagan was just outgunned in the sprint by a faster flat road sprinter, as I thought would be the case. Viviani was 6th, but admitted in a tweet after "I was there, but not with the legs to compete with these champions".
And so on to the final stage.. A 10km TT around the streets of San Benedetto del Tronto. I'm sure when the organisers were planning the race they hoped that there wouldn't be much time between the main players and it could be decided by the TT. But Nairo Quintana put clear distance between himself and his rivals on Termanillo and it will take a mletdown or mechanical for Nairo to lose it now it would seem, it would look to be impossible for him to lose over 50" in a 10km TT.
But what an incredible lineup of time trialling talent we have here this week - most of the best time triallists in the world are here, with only Tony Martin you could say off the world's elite time triallists missing out. In fact, ten of the top twelve in the World's TT in Doha last year are here, with only Martin and Lampaert missing out, as they were in Paris Nice.
I'll start with the man with a high degree of motivation, and one of the best TTers here, Rohan Dennis. Dennis is fighting for 2nd place with Thibaut Pinot, being 16" behind him in 3rd place. Not only that, but he has six riders within 31" of him and his 3rd place. You would expect a man of Dennis's power and ability on a TT bike to take 16" out of Pinot on a flat course like this, but can he do enough to win it? He's in fantastic shape, winning the Aussie TT championship by almost a minute from Durbridge, and following that up with an impressive win in the La Provence 3-day race. He won a flat-ish TT in the Eneco Tour last year over 10kms and finished 2nd to Martin in the TT in the Tour of Britain in Bristol, he will have to be one of the main contenders here you'd think.
Thibaut Pinot sits just 16" ahead of him in the GC, and just 25" ahead of Roglic, so has a podium spot to lose if he has a really bad day. Two years ago I'd have said he'd give up 30" to both of them, but FDJ, and Pinot himself have improved their TTing abilities dramatically in the last two years. Case in point was their excellent 2nd place in the TTT at the start of this race, ahead of Movistar, Orica-Scott and LottoNL. And Pinot himself went well in the TT in Andalucia, bouncing back from illness in Valenciana, taking 4th place in the flat 12km TT just 9" behind Campenaerts and ahead of the likes of Kiryienka. I don't think he is good enough to win this, or maybe even finish in the top 3, but he will go close, he has lots of motivation to put in a big ride.
Tom Dumoulin on paper is the best time triallist here and has looked very strong this week, atacking frequently. He was inexplicably made favourite by Bet365 for that uphill finish in Fermo in stage 5, he did well to finish in 7th, but was he really going to win it against the likes of Sagan? This is his sort of TT though - he won a similar TT in Appledoorn in the Giro last year over 9.8kms and shortly after won the Dutch TT championships and then crushed the field over 37kms in the TDF. He does occassionally blow it when fancied to go well though, so it can be a risk with him. But he looks pretty solid to me here.
Jonathan Castroviejo has had a really good week, not only working hard for Nairo when he's had to, but has hung on to 8th place for himself too. A driving force in the TTT for Movistar, Castroviejo is a powerhouse in TTs that probably doesn't get the credit he deserves. Twice Spanish TT champion, 3rd in the World's and 4th in the Olympics TT last year, he is a top quality TT'er on his day and will be one to watch here too. He recently won the flat 18km TT in the Algarve, beating Tony Martin by 4" and Roglic by 5", so his TT legs are in great shape. He currently sits in 8th, but with five guys within 26" of him he could easily find himself moving in to the top 5.
Tejay Van Garderen is another who can be really hit and miss on his day, he started the race well, being in 3rd place after the 2nd stage, but has slipped way down the GC to 21st place. As good as many people seem to think he is in TTs, he has only finished in the top 8 of a TT once in the last 2 1/2 years, and that was in a very weak TT in Andalucia just over a year ago. I don't think he'll be in the top 3 here, 5th to 10th more likely.
Geraint Thomas can pull off a decent TT in his day, but it's a rare day.. Even though it's been nearly three years since he last won a TT, he has finished in the top 10 of TTs on no fewer than 14 occassions since then, with five top 3 finishes. He has had a very good week too and has a 6th place to defend, so expect a decent time from the track man.
Primus Roglic was many people's fancy for this race, but he's left his supporters down, but it is still possible he can steal a podium spot as he sits just 9" behind Dennis and 25" behind Pinot, so if either of them have an off day, or he has a really good day, he might just still slip in to the each-way places. He recently won the Volta ao Algarve thanks to a 3rd place in the TT and a solid climbing performance and he has shown he is strong this week too with a prominent showing, including a fine 3rd place behind Sagan in Fermo. Not sure he can take a podium spot here, but he should definitely be good enough for a top 10.
Maciej Bodnar is an outsider who could go well too, The Bora man is the three-time (and reigning) Polish TT champion and finished 4th in the World's and 6th in the Olympics TTs last year. He also won the ITT in the 3 days of De Panne, beating Tony Martin and Tom Bohli by milliseconds. He might go close at a big looking 22/1.
Bob Jungels, Vasil Kiryienka, Nelson Oliveira, Jos Van Emden, Alex Dowsett, Ryan Mullen, Mattias Brandle - all 14/1 or bigger, Ryan Mullen at 80/1 looks like he'd give you a bit of fun for a while in the hot seat. Jos Van Emden probably has the best chance to crash the podium places though, at 14/1, but I can't see it really, he'll be 5th to 10th I think. Fabio Felline is a superb all-rounder who is in great shape, attacking again today near the finish with Terpstra - he could be a dark horse here too at 80/1, but I think he can take care of Sagan in their matchbet.
So when the prices came out I was surprised at how big TomDum was at 13/2.. Then he went out to 15/2, and PP opened at 9/1. I wasn't going to back him if he was under 4/1, but at that price I think he has to be an each-way pick, he must come close to a top 3 given his power and class and form. Fabian Cancellara won this last year in a power-packed performance, and I wouldn't be surprised to see Dumoulin do the same. I'm guessing they think it is on the short side for him, he needs longer to get his diesel engine going. Dennis is too short for me at 10/11, he disappoints too much for me at short odds, but I think Castroviejo can crown a good week for him by taking the win and moving in to the top 5 in the GC.
Recommendations:
2pts win on Jonathan Castroviejo at 7/2 with PP
0.75pts each-way on Tom Dumoulin at 9/1 with PP
Matchbets
Van Emden to beat Kiryienka and Felline to beat Sagan - 3pts at 5/4
Bodnar to beat Dowsett - 2pts at 11/10
Thomas to beat Boasson Hagen - 2pts at evens
Brandle to beat Cummings - 2pts at 5/6
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