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Published on Saturday, 25 February 2017 22:13

Kuurne-Bruxelles-Kuurne

Sunday 26th February 2017, 203kms

After the cobbles and the hellingen of the Omloop, the sprinters get their chance to shine on the second day of this weekend's double-header with the flatter parcours of Kuurne-Brussels-Kuurne. Jasper Stuyven caught everyone unawares last year, attacking away to win, despite crashing in the Omloop the day before.

Mark Cavendish is in the Abu Dhabi race again this year, he was the last sprinter to win this race in 2015, and also won it in 2012 in a sprint. In between Tom Boonen won the sprint from Moreno Hofland and Sep Vanmarcke, but 2013's race was cancelled because of the weather. 

Many riders take part in both races, some working for team-mates Saturday who repay the favour on the Sunday and vice-versa. Some riders just partake in one, the sprinters don't particularly like Saturday's race, others just do the Omloop and don't make it to Sunday's race as they may have hit the dirt on Saturday. A lot of the roads used in the Omloop on Saturday (and in the Tour of Flanders) are used again on Sunday, such  as the Kruisberg and the Oude Kwaremont, but the big difference is that the final Hellingen, the Nokereberg, comes 50km from the finish, meaning there is plenty of time to make sure it ends up in a sprint finish. 

Stuyven's win last year was pretty special, it was actually a fantastic race with action throughout the whole race. Peter Sagan lit the touch paper on the Kwaremont, where significantly, as you can see above, a certain Jasper Stuyven was the only one who could go with him. The race ebbed and flowed with more attacks later in the race leading to an elite group that contained the likes of Greg Van Avermaet and Tom Boonen gaining a small advantage of around 20-30".

As they approached the last 20kms, and it all looked set to be a bunch sprint, with Orica working for Ewan and Katusha working for Kristoff. Suddenly, Jasper Stuyven just rolled to the front of the break and his team-mate Danny Van Poppel eased back the pace.. He put his head down, the others squabbled about who would chase, and suddenly it was 30" with 10kms to go.. It was an amazing display of power to hold the lead over the chasing pack for all of the last 10kms, they barely took a few seconds off him. 

He won it comfortably, while behind Lukasz Wisniowski attacked off the front and almost held on for 2nd, he was passed by Kristoff, Bouhanni and Groenewegen right on the line. Peter Sagan finished 7th with Edward Theuns behind him in 8th. 

The race will also be sadly remembered for the shocking site of Stig Broeckx being hit by a medical motorbike, causing injuries that kept him out for two months. Things were only to get worse for Broeckx though in May, when he was again hit by a motorbike in the Belgium Tour, this time he wasn't so lucky and ended up in a coma for six months, only starting to show some signs of recovery in December. Let's hope there is no incidents like that this Sunday.

The Route

It's basically the same as last years race, but 2.7kms shorter at 200.7kms, with the same finish to the race, two laps of a 15.3kms circuit around Kuurne. There is a 'new' hill in the race, the Onkerzele Berg, which featured in the race last year, but this year they have classed it as a hill, but it's only about 2%..

After leaving Kuurne and Harelbeke in the west, they traverse eastwards across Flanders. Despite the name, they don't actually reach Bruxelles, but as they reach the outskirts of the city they loop around and head back to the lumpy southern part of the course around Ronse, where they take in the Kruisberg, the Cote du Trieu and the Oude Kwaremont. They then head north and over the Kluisberg, the Tiegemberg-Vossenhol, the Hostraat and Nokereberg before heading back to the finish in Kuurne. 

The Kwaremont and the Holstraat are two of the toughest sections of the race and they can offer the opportunity for solo attacks, or like in 2014 and 2016, the chance to rip the race apart if windy to reduce it to a small group finish, Sagan doing the damage last year, and most likely will try the same again this year. The Nokerberg comes with just 50kms to go, but as it's only 350m long, there's not a lot of opportunity to do too much damage.

The forecast is pretty good for Sunday, it should stay dry, but will be a little windy. 14-15mph winds blowing from the south-west (complete opposite to last year) could cause a few problems as it will be a cross-wind for most of the day, coming at them from their right on the way out, but will be a cross/head-wind for most of the way back.

It could see echelons and splits if the likes of Katusha or Lotto-Soudal look to get rid of some sprinters to make life easier for their men. They arrive in to Kuurne with 30kms to go and pass the finish line for the first time before embarking on two laps of 15kms circuit going out to Kortrijk and Harelbeke before coming back to Kuurne and finishing with a straight and flat road, where we are likely to see a sprint finish.Unlike last year though, the sprint finish will be in to a head-wind, so the sprinters will have to time it right as it is a wide-open 500m long road, some will go too early and blow up.. 

Contenders

The Omloop was excellent again today, a repeat of the 1-2 from last year, with an almost identical finish. GVA was superb, once again alert to the big move of the day. Sagan was immense, so powerful all day, just outgunned by a smarter GVA once again. And Sep... Sep, Sep, Sep.. seemed happy to take 3rd all day, never attacked, never tried to surprise the other two, nothing.. He was never going to win that sprint, why did he not at least try something in the last 2kms, the other two might have briefly hesitated in an 'after you' sort of moment, and he could have got a gap. 

And apparently in the Sporza studio afterwards, Sagan asked Sep "Why did you not attack?" and Sep said - "We agreed it would be a sprint"... right.. sporting fairness, no killer instinct.. I'm sure they expected an attack, like Sagan did, and they would have understood and accepted it if he had attacked and won - that's bike racing.. Disappointing, but we'll take the 16/1 e/w for his 3rd. 

Terrible day for Boonen, coming down in the big crash on the most innocuous stretch of cobbles on the whole course, the Donderij, then crashing again later on and abandoning. The thing is though, I don't think he'd have been in that winning break anyway, more likely he'd have been in the second group. Naesen had a great ride in 7th, he's getting closer to a podium in this race. The matchbet treble landed, as did the Gilbert over Moscon matchbet, exatly as I expected, Moscon buried himself for Rowe who took 6th place in the end. So an overall profit of 4.1pts, which we'll take, gives up something to play with in KBK. 

This race is now one of the few chances in the northern Classics for the sprinters, like the Scheldenprijs between Flanders and Paris-Roubaix. The race doesn't always end in a sprint though, for example, in 2010, the race was blown to pieces, with a trio of Bobbie Traksel, Rick Flens and Ian Stannard staying away and Traksel took the win from Flens with Stannard 2" back. Behind them it was carnage with only 26 riders finishing, scattered minutes apart on the road. 

And of course, last year, Jasper Stuyven pulled off a master-stroke, taking advantage of an indecisive and reluctant-to-commit lead group, and possibly also his relative anonymity to win in spectacular style. No one gave him a chance when he took off with 17.1kms to go, brave, but foolish effort we all thought.. but he showed his power and his class and they didn't see him again. 

But the most likely scenario given the parcours, with the hard southern section around the Kwaremont a full 100km from the finish and the last real obstacle of the Nokereberg coming 50kms from the finish is that we are going to see the race come back together in time for a sprint finish in Kuurne again. 

This race has been given an added complication now with the various incidents that happened today. Tom Boonen will be sore after two crashes, Kristoff also went down and seemed to be hurt. Arnaud Démare rode very well to finish 20th, as did Groenewegen who finished 25th.. But both would have had a hard day today, how will they go tomorrow? It didn't stop Stuyven from winning last year though, so it can be done. 

The bookies have made Nacer Bouhanni the 5/1 favourite, and I'm not sure I'd agree that he's the most likely to win this race. He's been going ok so far this season, but has yet to record a victory. He was beaten by McLay and Pelucchi in Trofeo Palma and by Coquard and Cort Neilsen in Valenciana, and by Gaviria and Greipel in the Algarve. I'd have liked to see him at least have one victory this year to be backing him at this price. 

On the other hand of course, what you have to consider, is that he would be on his day, the fastest sprinter starting here, and he has a reasonably good team here to lead him out, with Laporte, Van Genechten, Lemoine, Vanbilsin, Van Staeyen and Claeys. I do think it will end in a bunch sprint tomorrow, and if you take away Stuyven's solo victory, he would have been a very close runner-up to Kristoff last year. 

Alexander Kristoff came down in the big crash on the Donderij, and looked hurt when he tried to get up, he seemed to have damaged his hip in the fall. That is putting me off him at just 9/2 with PP, the 7/1 with Bet365 isn't all that much better. But if he is ok, then he has to have a huge chance again. It was noticable today just how many Katusha riders were at the front in the miles before the crash, they were clearly up for it and confident of a big showing from Kristoff.. I wonder if he had been in that second group today, with some team-mates, would they have been able to pull back the leaders.. 

He is in great form of course, with four victories and two 2nd places already this year, taking the points jersey's home from Oman and the Etoile de Besseges. He has serious power in Tony Martin, Pollit, Morkov, Planckaert and Hollenstein, and if they have 3-4 of them still with him hitting the last 50kms he will be well looked after and they can reel in any break. 

Peter Sagan.. Unlucky? Sloppy? Sick? He might have been a bit unlucky today, but was sloppy too to go so wide on the last bend, he gave GVA the better line through the bend, same as last year. And sick? Well the Sporza interviewer asked him today after the race whether he was sick, that the journo had been told that Sagan was sick, had 'stomach problems', but Sagan quickly denied that and said that he just went to the toilet, which is 'normal' according to him. 

It would be just like Sagan to turn around tomorrow and blow things up again on the Kwaremont and the other hills, long before the flat run-in, and win it to show everyone. He went from nearly 70kms to go today, if he gets the right mix of strong guys with him, they might just hold off the pack.. There would have to be someone from Katusha, Sky and maybe Cofidis in the break though so the chase loses those teams. 

Bora have a second option here of course wtih Sam Bennett, the course might just be on his limit of comfort and he could well feature at the end of this race. Maybe Sagan will use the last of his energy to pull Bennett in to position as they hit the bend with 500m to go, and let him do the rest.. At 50/1 Bennett might be worth a small investment. 

I think Dylan Groenewegen could have a big race tomorrow, well I did until I saw he finished 25th today. It may have cost him some energy in such a hard race to stay in that position, but at the same time, he wouldn't have been working too much and would have been sitting in. 4th last year, he has started this season well too, coming very close to victory with two 2nds in Dubai and a 3rd and a 4th in the Algarve, he's got a good chance of a podium place here I think, and with a bit of luck could take the win, so the 8/1 with Skybet is worth a go.

Arnaud Démare is the other sprinter I want to keep onside, he has been going well this year too, taking two stages in the EDB, beating Kristoff twice. He rode very well today too, taking 20th place, he will go well tomorrow I think and could be fighting for a podium too. He wouldn't have a great team here with him, but he can jump on the right wheels in the last kilometre and has the speed to win this. 4th in 2012, he also won Binch-Chimay-Binche last October, over a lumpy course, and of course won Milan San Remo, something he will be looking to try to do again in a few weeks time. 

Bryan Coquard is another French sprinter here that has a chance too. Winner of a stage in Valenciana (outbattling Bouhanni in the sprint) and winner of a stage in Andalucia, he's in fine form and if he's there at the finish, he could be a serious danger too. But I think he's the most fragile of the sprinters here and may not be there at the finish, he didn't finish Omloop, but he said it was just due to being caught in a crash and was too far back to be able to rejoin the front of the race. 

Tom Boonen went down hard today just before the Haaghoek, when a rider cut across him and caught his front wheel. He banged his knee and his elbow. He was involved in the big crash again a little later on the Donderij, but didn't go down this time, but his derailleur was damaged and he had to get a bike change. He abandoned shortly after, but he said that he wasn't too badly hurt.

Add that to the crash he had in Oman and his old bones have taken quite a beating in the last month.. I can't have him tomorrow after what happened today, I think it's time now for Tom to recover and get ready for the Ronde. 

I don't think Jasper Stuyven will be able to do what he did last year, he won't get away with that stunt twice. I think he must have been involved in that crash, as he tweeted tonight "On the wrong place at the wrong moment. Damn! Felt so good today. Tomorrow special race and a new chance. Thumbs up for the team.". He tried a few attacks from the chase group, but they didn't really get anywhere, but he was strong enough to finish in 8th after helping set up Felline for his fine 4th place. I think his only chance tomorrow is if he gets away with a strong group of 6 or 8 and he tries an attack away from them again. 

Jens Debusschere crashed today, not sure how he'll go tomorrow, but I can't have him, Edward Theuns needs to be in that break with Stuyven I think to have a chance too. 

Others of interest at longer odds.. Danny Van Poppel will be Sky's sprinter tomorrow you'd think, and he looked good working out on the course today for Rowe and Stannard. He might have a chance at 66/1. Oliver Naesen rode very well today and could go well again tomorrow too, he's 40/1. Fabio Felline and Moreno Hofland are 50/1 and could be there or thereabouts, Felline in particular was excellent today to take 4th, not a result many would have seen coming. He really is developing in to a superb all-round rider. 

Timothy Dupont could be a dark horse at 80/1 for Verandas, he is a very talented rider who won lots of races last year, including the Nokere Korse when he beat Dylan Groenewegen. I like the look of him to possibly infiltrate the sprint and maybe pull off a surprise podium. Magnus Cort Neilsen could also go well for Orica Scott, he seemed to be going well today but then disappeared, something must have happened to him. He did still come home in 16th though, 2'41" down. Oscar Gatto also rode well today, he could be another lively outsider at 100/1

So there we have it, I think it will be a sprint finish, be that from a large peloton, or maybe a select group of 50 riders or so. I like the look of Démare and Groenewegen though, with outside bets on Van Poppel, Dupont and Bennett, just because he is 50/1 and could get involved in the sprint. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dylan Groenewegen at 8/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 18/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Timothy Dupont at 66/1 with PP

0.25pts each-way on Danny Van Poppel at 80/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 50/1 with PP

Match Bets

Bouhanni to beat Kristoff - 2pts at 8/11

Cort Nielsen to beat Colbrelli, Groenewegen to beat Coquard, Demare to beat DVP - 3pts on the treble at 2.1/1 with Bet365