Details

Published on Thursday, 09 February 2017 17:06

Vuelta Ciclista Murcia

San Javier to Murcia

Saturday Feb 11th, 182.7kms

The Vuelta Ciclista a la Region de Murcia 'Costa Calida' (phew) is right up there as one of the longest race names on the calendar. It takes place in the region of Murcia in the south-east of Spain and is now in its 18th year, it was first run in 2000, but up until 2011 it was actually a stage race with 5 stages. 

In 2011, as the race started to suffer with financial difficulties it was shortened to just three stages (won by Contador, but was subsequently taken off him following his Clenbuterol ban). In 2012 it was shortened further again to just two stages, one a tough stage not too dissimilar to this year's race and the second was a 12km ITT. Nairo Quintana won stage one and did enough in the TT to hold on to his overall lead, but 2nd in that race was none other than Jonathan Tiernan-Locke when riding for Endura, with Woet Poels of Vacansoleil in 3rd.

2013 saw it become a one-day race as the race started to struggle to attract the big names with the big-money options of Qatar and Oman starting to lure teams to the middle-eastern races. It was won in 2013 by Daniel Navarro with Bauke Mollema and Valverde just behind him in a sprint from a group of just 10 riders. Nairo Quintana was 11th home, 3" later.

The race was won in superb fashion in 2015 by Rein Taaramäe when he attacked away from the peloton with over 50kms to go on the main climb of the day. He crested the climb with 47kms still to go, charged down the narrow descent and time trialled his way to the finish. He hit the nasty climb to the finish of the Alto Fortaleza del Sol with a short lead and Katusha chasing hard behind, but held on by just 10" from Bauke Mollema and Zdenek Stybar. 

When Valverde won in 2014 he had attacked away from a chasing group who were trying to catch Tiago Machado who had been away solo.. Valverde caught him and they rode together on the final climb until Valverde just sprinted away from him with 200m to go.

And last year Valverde was denied by Philippe Gilbert after some great team-work by BMC in the closing stages when they mobbed the front of the peloton leading in to the final climb, Tejay Van Garderen attacked on it and made everyone else chase, and when the dust settled on the run-in they had three out of the six that were in the winning break, with Ben Hermans leading out Gilbert to take the sprint (below). 

The Route

At 182.7kms it's 17kms less than last year's race, but it's not the only change to the route, as they don't tackle the Alto Cresta Del Gallo near the finish this year because of road works. From a distance it looks almost the same profile as last year save for the absence of the Cresta del Gallo. The first 25kms  loop around San Javier on flat roads, but as they start heading inland the road starts to climb. After 99kms they start on the first climb of the day, the Cat 3 Alto de Aledo, a 7.6km drag at 4.5%, same as last year.

After a short descent they start on the main obstacle of the day, the Cat 1 Alto Collado Bermejo, the Cima Marco Pantani. This climb takes them up to a height of 1201m, and in total they climb 11.2kms at 5.6% average, but the classiffied part of the climb averages 5.8% over its 7.5kms and once over the top there's still 63.4kms left to go, so probably too early to make a solo move, but a strong group will probably get away on the climb and fight it out over the last 63kms.

They descend on a fast and tricky road for 18kms and here's where the route differs from last year - with 45kms to go they start on a climb that they didn't do last year, the Cat 3 Alto de Gebas (5.9kms at 4.2% average). It gives the stronger men in the remains of the peloton a chance to split the race up further, as there are just 40kms to go once over the top. The last 40kms will go very fast as 28kms are gently descending and the last 12kms are a flat run back to Murcia.

After a twisty run to the finish in Murcia through a number of roundabouts, but the finish is sightly different to last year's run in, they come at the river from the west this time, instead of the east, but finish on the same road, the Gran Via de Murcia, after crossing the river with 500m to go. It's a slight pull up for the last 500m after a gentle descent for the last 2.5kms. 

We could well see the same sort of outcome as last year though, with the peloton decimated on the Cat 1 climb and maybe reduced further on the Alto de Gebas, for a group of maybe 15 or less to fight out the finish. 

The weather isn't the best though, with lots of rain forecast for the morning, but it is expected to lighten up in the afternoon so they might get a dry finish. But it will just add to the difficulty of what is already going to be a tough race. 

Contenders and Favourites

Philippe Gilbert may not be here, but Alejandro Valverde is back to try to regain his crown. Winner of this race in it's various forms on four occassions already, he's also been 2nd and 3rd and has been in the top 6 on stages, when it was a stage race, six times too. As much as he likes racing here, I think the course change may have worked against him this time as the big climb of the day comes 63kms from the finish. That's not to say that Movistar may not try to still set it up for him by trying to eliminate as many of the strong sprinters as they can before the flat run-in, they have a strong-ish team here with Ruben Fernandez named as joint leader, Jasha Sutterlin, Gorka Izagirre and Marc Soler .

They may try to blow it apart on the Collada Bermejo again, and whoever is left will again be put under pressure on the Alto de Gebas. But the run-in may allow a chase group to get back on in the last 45kms, as there are no hills to get over unlike last year on the way to the finish. And you may get someone, like a Philippe Gilbert, who might be able to hang in there and outsprint Valverde. He still has a big chance of course, if it does blow apart and it is only strong climber types who make it to the finish, Valverde probably wins. 

So who else could hang in there and challenge him? Katusha may look to Baptiste Planckaert to try to hang in there and challenge in the sprint, he rode ok in the TDU to take 6th on the stage to Campbelltown, 7th on the opening stage and 10th on the uphill finish to Victor Harbor. He also had a lot of good results last year when racing for Wallonie-Bruxelles, and if he can hang on to the coat-tails of his strong-looking Katusha team, he could well have a chance and he looks an ok bet at 20/1.

Orica Scott have a few cards to play, but their best chances are probably with Magnus Cort Nielsen or Luca Mezgec, but it will be difficult for MCN to hang on over a Cat 1 climb. If he can get over it, he should be ok on the Cat 3 that follows and would have a big chance in the sprint.

One important thing you need to keep in mind about this race is that a lot of these riders also line up for the Clasica de Almeria the next day, a day far better suited to the sprinters. So, it can be a bad idea to put yourself in to the red, unless you are on a really good day and think you have a chance if you bury yourself. A lot of the sprinters will call it a day after a good 100km training spin in preparation for sunday. Magnus Cort and Mezgec are tough, but I think it is about 60/40 that they will be involved at the finish, so MCN's price of 2/1 looks pretty short.. Instead they might look to Jens Keukeleire to try an attack in the closing stages, but 25/1 on him is poor too. 

I can't see anyone from Bahrain Merida or Bora-Hansgrohe winning it, but Lotto-Soudal might have a few possible candidates. André Greipel is probably just out for a training spin ahead of Murcia, but others like Tiesj Benoot, Jens Debusschere, Tony Gallopin and Jurgen Roelandts all would have chances. All four might be able to hang in there over the climb, particularly Gallopin and Roelandts, and Gallopin is sure to try a flyer from a reduced peloton on the run-in. If it does come to a small sprint, Roelandts would have small chances too. If Debusschere can hang in there, he would have a good chance as he'll probably have 2-3 team-mates with him to help set him up, the 4/1 on him is quite tight though. *Update* André Greipel has pulled out, he's thought better of it.... 

Cofidis are not even bothering sending Bouhanni out, I can't see any of the others doing anything for them, although Daniel Navarro should be in the lead group that comes home. Direct Energie are also sparing Coquard and the rest of their squad will not exactly put the fear in to the rest of the peloton on the start line. 

Roompot could have a chance with Pieter Weening, he might try attacking on the Cat 3 climb with 45kms to go, if he gets a small group with the right kind of guys (and teams) go with him he could attack again on the run-in. CCC Sprandi might have a small chance with Maciej Paterski or Felix Grosschartner, but that's a very small chance. Wanty might have a chance with Yohann Offredo, he has finished 7th in Milan-San Remo in the past, 50/1 might be worth a few pennies. 

So how's it going to go? I think we'll get a bigger group than last year coming to the finish, as the likes of Orica, Katusha and Lotto may well get dropped on the Cat 1, but have enough time to pool their resources and chase down the breakaway, as long as the gap is around a minute or less. This could see MCN, Planckaert and Debuscchere come in to it, to fight it out with Valverde. And in a flat out sprint, I'd rather be on Planckaert at 20/1 than MCN at 2/1. Jurgen Roelandts and Yohann Offredo are two at bigger prices should the race get completely blown apart and the sprinters can't get back on.

The prices below are from Kirolbet, the Spanish bookie, if any of you can get on. It's looking unlikely the lazy buggers at Paddy Power, Skybet and Bet365 are going to price it up, despite I asking them today and they saying they would ask their traders..... 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Baptiste Planckaert at 20/1

0.3pts each-way on Jurgen Roelandts at 20/1

0.25pts each-way on Yohann Offredo at 50/1