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Published on Saturday, 11 February 2017 23:06

Clasica de Almeria

Almeria to Almeria

Sunday Feb 12th, 184kms

The Clasica de Almeria is the second of the one-day races taking place this weekend, with the Vuelta Ciclista Murcia having being run on Saturday. The Murcia race is one for the climbers and puncheurs, but the Clasica de Almeria is traditionally one for the sprinters.

Alejandro Valverde pulled out of this race on Friday, instead it seemed he was going all-in for Murcia in a bid to win it for the 5th time. And we should have taken that as a clue, as he duly went out and blew the race apart, all by himself. He attacked what was left of the peloton on the Alto Collado Bermejo and just rode away from them like on a training ride. And he built and built his lead, even on the flat 45kms run to the line, holding a 3' lead for most of the last 15kms. 

As it turned out though, there were only 21 riders in the pack that were chasing him, rather than a large peloton, but you'd have expected 21 men to do better than one man on his own, but there were only 1s and 2s from rival teams and it looked like they just wouldn't work together. In the end our man Planckaert led out Jhonathan Rostrepo to take 2nd with Patrick Konrad taking 3rd for Bora. Annoyingly, Jurgen Roelandts took 4th, with Planckaert in 5th, if Valverde hadn't been let away we could have had a 20/1 3rd place.. Magnus Cort Neilsen finished in the 2nd group, 4'41" down, Jens Debusschere finished in a large group almost half an hour down. 

Leigh Howard took the win for IAM Cycling last year, beating Alexey Tsatevich and Alexsejs Saramotins in a three-man sprint 5" ahead of the two favourites for the race Bryan Coquard and Nacer Bouhanni. IAM pulled off a stroke of genius, with Saramotins and Howard attacking in the last kilometre and they soloed to the finish with Tsatevich in tow, Howard just pipping the Russian Katusha man to the victory.  

That result might dispell the notion that this race always ends in a bunch sprint, you might think. BUT - and it's a huge BUT - last year's race was a farce from a racing point of view. With high winds gusting to over 100kmph, the organisers were forced to reduce the race to just 5 laps of the finishing circuit, meaning the race was just 21kms long.. I've been in Under 14 races that were longer.. 

Mark Cavendish won in a sprint the year before from JJ Lobato and his team-mate Mark Renshaw. JJ Lobato also finished 2nd in 2014, beaten by an up-and-coming sprinter named Sam Bennett. It's a mostly flat race with a few dips inland and over some Cat 3 climbs, but the last little climb comes 35kms from the finish before a flat run along the coast and back to the finish. 

None of the last three winners of the race are here, with Howard, Cavendish and Bennett giving it a skip, in fact, there are no previous winners of the race at all lining up. That isn't to say there is a lack of sprinting talent here though, Nacer Bouhanni and Bryan Coquard get the opportunity to lock horns again after their close encounter last Sunday in Valenciana. Coquard came from nowhere it seemed to pip the unlucky Vermeeltfort, nudging Bouhanni out of the way in the last 10m. 

They are joined by André Greipel, already a winner this year in Trofeo Porreres, Magnus Cort Neilsen, a stage winner in Valenciana, Raymond Kreder, who was 6th last year (or 3rd in the sprint), Baptiste Planckaert and Jens Debusschere. Alejandro Valverde is also here, but it's unlikely he'll be challenging the sprinters for the race win. 

The Route

The course is exactly the same as the route they should have taken last year, had the wind not been so strong. They start in Almeria and head out along the coast and after around 25kms they turn inland and head towards El Ejido. After 50kms they go over the first little climb of the day at the Alto de Los Atajuelillos (Cat 3). After that it's back down to the coast again for 40kms of flat roads and just after Adra, with 95kms gone they turn inland and go over two Cat 3 climbs in 20kms.

A quick descent back down to the coast again and back over the same roads for a while but this time they go straight on at Balanegra along the coast on the red line you see on the map below, with a quick detour inland at Almerimar for the Alto Cuesta de Almerimar which they crest with just 32kms to go.

The final run to the finish is flat and runs close to the coast, before finishing in Roquetas de Mar. The last kilometre is dead flat and pretty straight, perfect for a sprint finish. 

Weather Watch - Thankfully the weather looks like being a lot more amenable this year, with winds of around 12mph, no rain forecast and highs of around 19° - perfect for a bike race.. 

Contenders and Favourites

No prices again, another shitshow from the lazy buggers at the bookies. The sooner Kirol start taking clients from the rest of Europe and not just Spain, the better, as they look to be offering the best cycling service out there at the moment. Not just have they priced this up again, but they also have matchbets, and other markets like will a Bora, Katusha or Orica rider finish in the in the top 3, or not and the winning margin. For example, it's 4/5 Orica will have a man in the top 3, 9/10 they won't. 

You can't really base anything on last year's result with the stage reduced to a farcical crit, but it did show that if the wind does whip up, it can be pretty damn wild down in the south of Spain. This race has generally been one for the sprinters, in fact you have to go back to 2009 to find the last time it didn't end in a bunch sprint, when Greg Henderson led home a group of six, 3" ahead of Tony Martin and Luis Leon Sanchez. I don't have a profile for that edition, but it looks like it must have been a far hillier route, as there are no sprinters of note at all in startlist. 

So this year's route is back to being sprinter friendly again, as although they go over some nice little climbs out on the route, the flat last 25kms generally means it all comes back together in time for a bunch gallop. There have been attacks of course out on the route in the past, Romain Bardet got some good climbing training in in the edition two years ago and held a healthy gap for a while, but it will take an extremely strong break, or a serious miscalculation/accident in the peoloton for a break to make it. 

Nacer Bouhanni was down to ride this race all week, but has not been confirmed in the final squad today, which is annoying as I had written about the duel between the two little Frenchman.

I don't think Nacer is a big fan of Coquard's after last weekend's sprint, but he can complain all he likes, Coquard won that sprint fair and square. Yes, he came off his line a little diving around Vermeltfoort, but Bouhanni too was not exactly sprinting in a straight line, he just wasn't as fast as Coquard and so lost out. 

Bryan Coquard had a great season last year and came within a photo finish of his first Grand Tour stage win when Marcel Kittel denied him by millimetres in Limoges in the TDF. Is this going to be his breakthrough year? Kittel has started the year ominously for other sprinters, winning three stages in Dubai, but Coquard is on his way to being one of the top 5 sprinters in the peloton based on his results in the last few years. Sometimes he has failed to deliver on promising situations, lacking the balls and aggressiveness of Bouhanni to land the win. He may just have shown a glimpse at the weekend though that he has added a bit of steel to his sprint, diving out in front of Bouhanni to take the sprint.

André Greipel was also supposed to be doing this as far as I could see all week, but isn't now, so it looks like it's probably down to Tosh Van Der Sande or Jens Debusschere to fight it out in the sprint for them, but I think they'll be outside the podium places. They have a very strong team here with him, with Jurgen Roelandts, Jelle Wallays, Tony Gallopin and Tiesj Benoot. I can see Gallopin having a go out on the course, maybe on the Cat 3 on the run for home, to allow Lotto have a rest before kicking in to action in the last 5kms.

Other sprinters to watch out for? Orica-Scott only seem to have six riders to everyone else's seven here, but they have a live chance too with Magnus Cort Nielsen. The Dane got the better of both Coquard and Bouhanni in a real power-mans sprint on stage 3 of Valenciana last week. There may be only five others here for him, but they are a super strong six with Luca Mezgec, Jens Keukeleire, Sam Bewley, Matthew Hayman and the machine, Chris Juul-Jensen. That five can come to the front in the last 5kms and can produce him with a chance of a podium spot. It will be hard with the three top class sprinters above, but he's capable of delivering. He rolled home in the second group today, suggesting he is strong, but just not good enough to stay with the better climbers today, he is sure to go close tomorrow. 

Movistar were supposed to have Alejandro Valverde here but he will be resting after a superb victory today , so they will probably be looking to Jasha Sutterlin who rode so well int he TDU, or maybe Carlos Barbero. Bora-Hansgrohe don't have former winner Bennett or Sagan here, so they will be looking to Matteo Pelucchi in the sprint. Pelucchi joined Bora from the now defunct IAM Cycling squad, and he has history in this race, having won it in 2011 ahead of Rojas and Ligthart in what was a pretty poor field. They also have Michael Schwarzmann here who could sprint if anything happens to Pelucchi, but you'd expect Pelucchi to be their main man here, he warmed up for this race with a 2nd and a 4th in the Mallorca races, so he's sure to be involved in the sprint. 

With no Nacer Bouhanni here, Cofidis will probably be looking to Jonas Van Genechten, he is capable of a top 10 you'd think. Roompoot have Raymond Kreder, he was 6th here last year, but I think he'll struggle to break the top 6. Pieter Vanspeybrouck is probably the best chance for Wanty and Timothy Dupont might have a chance at a big price for Verandas Willams-Crelan and Baptiste Planckaert is surely the best chance of a top 10 for Katusha too. 

This looks like a great opportunity for Bryan Coquard to take his second win of the season, he probably won't face a weaker lineup in a decent race like this for the rest of the season. He is 6/4 with Kirol and if I could bet with them I'd be tempted to have a decent bet on him. I think Magnus Cort is too short at 11/4, as is Pelluchi at 7/2, but Timothy Dupont is interesting at 14/1, there's not a whole lot else appeals to me. 

Recommendations:

If I could bet with Kirol I'd be having 2pts on Coquard at 6/4 and 0.5pts each-way on Timothy Dupont at 14/1.