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Published on Tuesday, 02 August 2016 18:04

Olympic Road Race

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Sat Aug 6th, 220.2kms

The Olympics Road Race of four years ago saw Alexander Vinokourov buy the gold medal off Rigoberto Uran, who conveniently looked over the wrong shoulder just as Vinokourov made his race-winning move. 

Will we see similar shenanigans this time around in Rio? Maybe not, Vinokourov is a particularly bad egg. It's a race that comes around once every four years, a race with no proper prior history of the route and with teams cobbled together from rival trade teams and a maximum of only five riders in each team.. easy to pick a winner from eh?

The other thing that the road race in London will be remembered for is the total balls-up that team GB made of the attempt to win it with Mark Cavendish. After trying to control the race for practically the whole day, they had nothing left at the end of the final time up Box Hill as attacks were coming left right and centre, the attacks that ultimately set up the race-deciding break.

We were on Box Hill and watched lap after lap of the Sky, sorry GB train on the front, but as they came past us for the final time they were in disarray with Philippe Gilbert, Fabian Cancellara, Vinokourov and several others attacking away from them. Those attacks left GB floundering and with so many countries involved in the break there were few countries left to help the chase with GB. One of my picks Fabian Cancellara looked in a great position to win the race as they charged towards London, but unfortunately crashed in to a barrier coming through Richmond Park of all places, a place I know very well!

On the run in, Vinokourov and Uran attacked, they got a gap and built enough of a lead to mean they were going to be fighting for the win between them. But it wasn't a fair fight, as bizarrely, Uran took a long, deliberate, lingering look over one shoulder as Vino was attacking hard down his other side. (you can see it here, embedding has been disabled by the IOC on the videos on YouTube! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rsHCLXvYRW0)

Vino took gold, Uran silver and Alexander Kristoff took bronze. There was a commendable ride by Taylor Phinney to finish 4th, to go with his 4th place in the TT a few days before it. So close to a medal on two occassions, yet, so far. Meanwhile, Cavendish finished in 29th place, beaten in the bunch gallop by Greipel and Boonen. That's the saddle of the race-winning bike (right).

Although that was a hilly route around the Surrey hills with nine passages up Box Hill, it was likely to be won by a non-climber - either in a sprint finish, as Team GB were hoping, or from a late breakaway like with Vino. This time around this course looks to be one that will favour the climbers, with ten climbs in total, including four ascensions of the Cat 1 Vista Chinesa in 90kms, but it may not be an out-and-out climber which wins it. That is because there is a flat run to the finish of over 12kms, so there is the possibility that breakaway riders could be reeled in on the run in to Flamingo Park again.  

The Route

There is an incredible amount of confusion and conflicting information about the route and its distance, just a matter of days before the races starts. On various news sites, cycling sites and so on, I have seen distances ranging from 237.5kms to 242.6kms to 253.5kms and 256.5km. Even the Rio Olympics site has no clear information on the route or the profile. I've been told that it has been confirmed in the detailed race manual that it is 237.5kms, which puts it at the shorter end of the range and 12.5kms shorter than the race in London four years ago. 

It will start and finish on the Avenida Atlantica on the Copacabana and hugs the coast for most of the route.They head straight out along the coast and past part of the Canoas/Vista Circuit which they come back to later in the race. They carry on along the coast, past the Copacabana and after around 50kms they enter the Grumari Circuit which will be navigated four times by the peloton.

It contains the 1.3km, 9.4% average gradient Grumari climb and the 2.1km climb of Grota Funda which averages 4.5%. The Grumari is hard with the last 500m averaging 14.8% and hitting a max of 24% but flattens out for the last 200m or so. There will also be a 2km cobble stone section on the course to make things a bit more interesting.. but these are relatively easy cobbles, we're not talking the Pavé of northern France. 

After leaving the Grumari Circuit they head back along the coast again for 40kms, allowing some regrouping, feeding, taking on bottles etc. After 145kms they reach the most difficult part of the course, the Canoas/Vista Chinesa Circuit. The riders will have to do three laps of this circuit, taking in the 8.9km climb of the Vista Chinesa, which averages 6.2%, but that average gradient is very deceptive as there are some seriously steep parts in the first 4kms of the climb, followed, by a descent for a kilometre. The last 3.9kms of the climb average a much steadier 5.9%. 

The climb is followed by 10kms of a descent and 10kms along the flat before climbing it again. Once over the top of the Vista Chinesa for the final time there is a 12km flat run-in to the finish, well at least that's what it looks like, I'll try to update this if I get more concrete info later in the week..

Contenders and Favourites

This is an interesting course that will challenge on many levels. The weather is going to be warm, but as Nibali said about it "The Tour de France was warm, so hopefully we are prepared for it". The long run of 50kms before the first categorised climb of the day will mean that the rouleurs who have no hope of beating the climbers later in the race, will try to get up the road early. Look for the nations too, who don't really posess a climber to try to get men in the break. We could see the likes of Jan Barta, Tim Wellens or Tony Martin might try their luck. 

The rest of the punchier riders, who are on teams with climbers, will be needed to control the race and try to pull back the break in the flat section between the two circuits. Guys like Stannard, Cummings and Thomas for GB, who might ordinarily be interested in taking a flyer up the road might be asked to work for Froome for example. 

Going through the favourites from the top, Alejandro Valverde leads the betting at 9/2 generally, but is available at 5/1 with Will Hill. Valverde leads one of the strongest teams on paper, with Joaquim Rodriguez, Imanol Erviti, Ion Izagirre and Jonathan Castroviejo. All are good climbers but we know there is always issues with having Valverde and Purito on the same team, just think about the World Championships last year when they wouldn't work together to pull back Rui Costa and even in the Clasica San Sebastian last weekend when they wouldn't work together to chase down Mollema. Will we have similar issues again this time around?

I steered clear of Valverde for the win last weekend as I feared one or two guys would be too good for him and that was exactly how it turned out. I don't think he is at the top of his game at the moment though and the fact he was beaten in a sprint for the second time in recent weeks by Gallopin on Sunday (and Rodriguez on Mont Blanc) puts me off him again at that price. Of course, if it comes down to a reduced group bunch sprint he's likely to be involved, he showed in San Sebastian that he has the legs to follow most attacks on steep climbs and will be at the forefront going over the Vista Chinesa for the last time unless a break is already up the road.

Ion Izagirre showed in the Tour's final mountain stage that he is a superb talent that can win races like this on his own bat, and if he can attack on the final climb and take advantage of hesitation as others watch Valverde and Rodriguez, then he could be gone.. he's a great descender and a good time triallist and could pull it off.. At 50/1 with Ladbrokes paying 4 places, he could be a long shot with a good chance. 

Moving on to Italy and Vincenzo Nibali is the second favourite at 8/1 and is being talked up in a lot of attempts at previews by news sites and so on, and of course the Italian captain has a big chance on a course like this if he was 100%. But given how he had a pretty average Tour de France I can't have him as one of my favourites. He looked like he might land a surprise stage win on stage 20 when he attacked away from Pantano and Alaphilippe, but after trading to 1/4 in play to take the stage he faded and was caught by Izagirre and Pantano, then dropped, uncharacteristically on the descent. It's hard to think he'll ride away from a quality field like this when he couldn't beat Izagirre and Pantano just two weeks ago. I can't have him at that price right now. 

Julian Alaphilippe (16/1) had a good Tour, culminating in a close call on stage 20 when he just ran out of legs on the final climb of the Col de Joux Plane, but took 4th on the day. These climbs are no Joux Plane's though and he should be able to stay with most of the climbers here over the final climb, unless the pace is furiously fast. If it comes to a sprint finished in a reduced group, he'd have a chance, but I worry that he lacks experience for such a unique kind of event. 

France also have three other possibles in Alexis Vuillermoz, Warren Barguil and Romain Bardet, but you wonder how four similar riders will work for each other in such a contest. Vuillermoz could have a chance if the race finished at the top of the final climb, or if it was a reduced group sprint finish without the likes of Valverde then he might have a chance too. I think he might find the pace a bit too hot though. Barguil was struggling a little during the Tour at times and I think he might be sent up the road as a carrot earlier in the race, maybe on the first or second time over the Vista Chinesa, but I can't see him winning here. Romain Bardet we all know loves a late attack on a climb and a fast descent, but the 12km run in to the finish is against his chances. 

Chris Froome leads a strong GB team and is one of the favourites at just 8/1 but he is available at twice that price in places. He has Stannard, Cummings, Yates and Thomas also on the team and you'd think that all bar Stannard would have chances on their best form, and most of them are close to their best at the moment. Adam Yates has come off a great Tour, but was not good enough at the weekend in the Clasica San Sebastian, maybe the Tour is catching up with him.

Geraint Thomas almost pulled off a 60km solo attack in the Ride London on Sunday, and when he and Stannard attacked away up past us on Whitedown and later on Ranmore Common in a two-up TT (with Paddy Bevin in tow) he was absolutely flying. He just ran out of steam in the last 5kms. And Steve Cummings owes it to give it a go, or at least work his ass off for his team-mates after all the hoo-ha about his non-selection and subsequent selection.

But what about Froome's chances? You wouldn't put anything past him these days after seeing him in the Tour - attacking wherever and whenever.. He could attack on the final climb, he could attack on the descent (yeah, I know, sounds crazy huh) but I really can't see him doing it - he won't hold off this group over a closing 20kms on his own and he won't win a sprint finish. 

Portugal only have a four-man team here, with André Cardoso, Nelson Oliveira and José Mendes here to support Rui Costa in his attempt to bring Olympic glory to Portugal, to go with the World's title he won two years ago. And he has a chance too I think. He will like a course like this with three tough, but not brutal challenges in the closing kilometres and will be able to hide away as one of the lesser-fancied nations. Portugal will not be expected to be pulling at the front or chase, unless they have missed the key move and Rui's feeling good, so he should get an easy ride to the last climb. There, he can attack away with a small group, and with the right group he could go to the line.

As we saw in his World's win, he's a master tactician in the closing kilometres of a long, tough race and would be a strong candidate for a podium place. If it comes to a larger group sprint finish, then he has much less of a chance. Again, backing him with Ladbrokes at 20/1, who are paying four places might pay off if he is in a group that contains the likes of Valverde and Alaphilippe. 

The Dutch have a really interesting team here, packed with talent - Woet Poels, Steven Kruijswijk, Tom Dumoulin and Bauke Mollema - all four are in great form and are extremely strong. Everyone claimed Wout Poels was one of the strongest riders in the Tour and could well have won a stage if he hadn't been towing Froome over every mountain peak in the race, maybe we'll see here exactly how strong he is right now? We know from Liege-Bastogne-Liege this year that he can master a tough, hilly, one-day race like this and should he right up there in the vanguard as they crest the final mountain. If it's a very select small group he has a chance too, he outsprinted Michael Albasini and Rui Costa in LBL, no mean feat.

Steven Kruijswijk has had a memorable year, but for him probably a lot of memories he'd rather forget after crashing and throwing away the lead of the Giro d'Italia. I'm not sure this finish suits him though and I think he'll be riding for the team. Tom Dumoulin showed with his stage win in the Tour that he can get in breaks and once he gets his diesel engine going on not-too-hard climbs, then he can do very well. 5.7% average is most defintely on the right side of Dumoulin's abilities if he can hang in there on the steep first 4kms of the climb. It might be that we see him attacking in the valley between the climbs on either the penultimate or final time up it.

And Bauke Mollema - our 40/1 hero in San Sebastian - can he pull off another ride like that? I thought he was brilliant in the Clasica and pulled off a master stroke by attacking when he did, as he sized up who he was with and decided he was not going to tow Gallopin and Valverde to the line. He also copped that he had the best of enemies Purito and Valverde with him, so they were going to argue about who would do the chasing as usual.

He powered to the finish in impressive fashion, but soloing for 6kms on the flat is a different ball-game altogether to trying to hold off a pack like this for 12kms. I wouldn't be surprised to see him as one of the strongest guys on Saturday, he may podium, but I don't think he'll be winning this time. Poels represents their best chance according to the betting at 25/1 best, but I'm not backing him at that price, Mollema looks a better bet to me at 40/1 with Corals and Paddy Power. 

And what about the Colombians? Close to being on home turf, there are bound to be thousands of Colombian fans on the roadside cheering their heroes. And what a talented squad they have here - Johan Esteban Chaves, Jarlinson Pantano, Miguel Angel Lopez, Sergio Henao and Rigo Uran. Esteban Chaves is now probably in training for the Vuelta and will not be able to win this with a 12km run-in to the line though I think.

Jarlinson Pantano has a far better chance of victory, he should be ok on the climbs, can descend like a rocket down the other side and packs a decent sprint for a small group sprint finish. Miguel Angel Lopez might lack experience, but experience is something Henao and Uran have in spades.

Henao might attack on the steeper parts of the Vista Chinesa climb but it will be a big ask to hang on over the last part of the climb and the run to the finish, Uran tried a dig in San Sebastian last week and it was pretty limp, easily countered and beaten by Simon Yates, who in turn blew up soon after and was left behind by Purito. I can't see him winning it either, although he might look back at taking the cash for the medal in London and be driven by desire to put that right... I can't see it though..

The Belgians have a strong team here too, with Greg Van Avermaet, Philippe Gilbert, Serge Pauwels, Tim Wellens and Laurens de Plus on the squad. It might be right on the border of whether Gilbert and Van Avermaet make it over all the climbing, but GVA might have a better chance at that than Gilbert and looks to be in better form too. Tim Wellens is one for the attack on the Vista Chinesa, maybe even earlier, but I don't think it will pay off. Pauwels is the best climber of the lot of them, but lacks a killer instict and Laurens de Plus is probably one Olympics too young.

If GVA can get to the second part of the final climb still in contention, then he has a chance - he can possibly attack, or he can wait for the sprint finish, depending on who he has eyeballed up as key rivals for the sprint. He has beaten Peter Sagan in plenty of sprints so he might fancy his chances against some of these riders.

Poland's leading rider on paper is Michal Kwiatkowski, but after the season he has had and seeing him getting dropped early on again in the Clasica last Saturday, I don't think he'll be involved in this finish. Switzerland have an interesting looking team with Fabian Cancellara, Sebastian Reichenbach, Michael Albasini and Steve Morabito. 

Cancellara would dearly love to take this big prize on one of his last big races before retirement. He wanted to win the TDF stage to Bern but was denied. I think he will definitely be involved in the latter parts of the race, but whether he will be able to stay with the mountain goats up the 15% first 4kms of the Vista Chinesa is another question. Reichenbach is a good climber, but won't be beating the best in the world here, but Michael Albasini might have a chance.

Albasini can climb with the best on punchy courses like this (not too dissimilar to a Tour of Romandie or TDS stage) and has a decent enough sprint on him at the finish. He hasn't been his usual prolific self though this year with one stage win in the Tour of Romandie his only win of the year. He might struggle on the final climb, but if he gets over it with the leaders he has a chance.   

Ireland's hopes rest with Dan Martin and Nicolas Roche, and they are two lively outsiders here, despite having no team-mates to look after them. Roche looked really good in the Clasica San Sebastian, he almost made it in to the first group over the final climb, but was just distanced by about 8 seconds when Mollema and Valverde kicked on. He eventually finished in 9th, and with the announcement this week that he is leaving Sky for BMC he's probably in good spirits. Dan Martin was in great shape in the Tour and as one of the lesser fancied nations with only two riders they might just be able to slip the net. Martin is just 16/1, but could be a big shout for a medal, the final climb is perfect for him, a steep first part followed by a 6% climb to the top. In a reduced group he'd have a chance of a good result.  

Of the other nations, Australia have chances with Richie Porte, but he isn't a finisher on a day like this. South Africa's best chance is probably Darryl Impey and he had a good Tour, had good climbing legs. Jacob Fuglsang could go well for Denmark as could his Astana team-mate Tanel Kangert and Rein Taaramae for Estonia. Ramunas Navardauskas for Lithuania and Toms Skuijns for Latvia are two final riders who could go well on a course like this, but both would prefer colder and wetter weather.

So crunch time! The key to the race looks to be held by the power-houses of Spain, Italy, Belgium, Britain, France, Colombia and Holland. They have the talent and the numbers to control the race and blow it apart when they need to. But as we saw in London, that is easier said than done with only five riders on each team. It's going to be a race of attrition and we might see a very reduced field coming up the Vista Chinesa last time around, and if that's the case it could be every man for himself and might be impossible to control.

I think we might get a small group go away on the final climb of maybe 10 riders or less and if they can go to the line together then it'll come down to who can attack on the flat run in and hold it to the line, or who can win the sprint if it comes to it. Although it's a climbers course, I am not sure a solo climber will win, so I'm ruling out the likes of Froome, Esteban Chaves and Romain Bardet. I like Ion Izagirre, Rui Costa, Bauke Mollema and Dan Martin at reasonable prices, but Valverde, Van Avermaet, Alaphilippe and even Jarlinson Pantano could also be involved. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 40/1 with Paddy Power

0.3pts each-way on Ion Izagirre at 66/1 with Skybet or StanJames

0.5pts each-way on Dan Martin at 16/1 with Skybet

0.5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 20/1 with Ladbrokes paying four places.  

Matchbets:

Poels to beat Bardet - 2pts at 4/5 with Bet365

Geraint Thomas to beat Kwiatkowski - 3pts at 4/6 with Ladbrokes

Costa to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at evens with Ladbrokes