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Published on Wednesday, 27 July 2016 18:04

Clasica San Sebastian  2016

San Sebastian, Spain

Sat July 30th, 220.2kms

The Donostia-Donostia Klasikoa, or Clasica Cycliste San Sebastian as it's known to the Anglophones, takes place this Saturday in it's traditional slot one week after the Tour de France climax. 

Adam Yates will be looking to defend his title after a stunning showing in the TDF where he finished 4th, but also won the best Young Riders jersey with a fantastically consistent three weeks of riding. To say Yates was a surprise winner last year was an understatement, even he was surprised he won, gesticulating 'Did I win?' as he crossed the line, rather than an arms-aloft celebration.

No one was perhaps more shocked with the outcome than Greg Van Avermaet, who attacked away solo on the final climb of the Bordaka Tontorra, only to be taken out by a lunatic on a race motorbike, knocking him off the road and damaging his bike. It was a massive disappointment for him and a massive disappointment for those of us who had picked him and backed him at 33/1 to win it..  

Runner-up last year was GVA's team-mate Phil Gil who pipped Alejandro Valverde in the sprint for 2nd place. Dani Moreno, Joaquim Rodriguez, Bauke Mollema, Dan Martin, Julian Alaphilippe, Warren Barguil and Rigo Uran made up the rest of the top ten, a top ten not too dissimilar to the top ten of the TDF just finished. 

It is the 35th running of the race, so not exactly the oldest classic in the world, but has built a reputation as a tough and challenging race, favoured by climbers and puncheurs coming out of the Tour with good legs, taking on guys who missed the Tour and prepared for this specifically. There haven't been many wins recently though from riders who have not ridden the Tour, it looks like the week's recovery after three hard weeks' racing is the perfect prep for this sort of race. 

It is a lumpy parcours that really saps the energy and the race is usually in bits as they approach the last 50kms or so, although this year, like last, the final ascent of the Alto de Jaizkibel is further out than it used to be in the past, they crest it with nearly 54kms still to go.

The Route

It's a similar sort of affair to previous years, after starting in Donostia (the Basque name for San Sebastian), they head off on a loop of almost 100kms out in to the countryside where they start on the Alto de Itruburu after about 45kms. A Cat 1 climb of 3.5kms, averaging a very steady 5%.

With 120kms gone they hit the Alto de Jaizkibel, a tough, exposed climb that drags on for around 8kms at an average of 5.6%, but with parts that hit well over 8%. We should see a thinning out on this first passage before they go down the fast and tricky descent to the base of the next challenge, the Cat 2 Alto de Arkale. This is much shorter, but averages 6.1%, so there may be some break attempts go again here. 

Once over the Arkale it's back to the foot of the Jaizkibel for another go at it, followed again by the Arkale. Once over the Arkale for the last time they head towards the Bordako Tontorra, the hill that was the finish for the last two years, the hill that saw GVA knocked over by the motorbike on the small twisty roads. This year the organisers have been forced by the UCI and the security secretary to divert away from the Tontorra just as they start to climb it. Instead they go down a small descent and then start on the climb of the Murgil Bidea a new climb for the race. 

The Murgil Bidea is still a very hard climb of 1800m at 10.5%, with parts hitting 20% and the last 600m averaging 12.5%, hard enough to blow the race to pieces like the way the Tontorra does, but at least the road is wider and will be barriered off to hopefully prevent any incidents like last year. They then plunge down the descent towards the finish, a really fast and furious descent, a descent that if you can get a small gap on you can hold off the chasers all the way to the like like Valverde two years ago and Yates last year.  

The last 4kms are flat though, so if a small group does come off the climb together, it will probably end in a very small bunch sprint. More likely though is it will be won by a solo rider or 2 or 3 at most. 

Contenders and Favourites

The usual suspects appear at the top of the betting - dual former winner and 3rd last year Alejandro Valverde, unlucky loser last year Greg Van Avermaet, former winner and runner-up last hear Philippe Gilbert, twice third-place finisher Joaquim Rodriguez and last year's winner Adam Yates. They are joined at the top of the betting by the likes of Dan Martin who was 7th last hear and rode well in the TDF and one of the sensations of the Tour Jarlinson Pantano.

There is something new to consider this year with the course, the finish is different with the dropping of the narrow Tantorra for the Murghil Bidea, so it's a new finish for all riders. The ascent is equally steep and hard though, averaging 10.5% for 1.8kms, with parts hitting 20% - it's a wider road though which will mean we should see more riders possibly getting away together, it was easier to slip away solo on the narrow road of the Tontorra. The descent is more or less the same though, so we should see a similar sort of finish with the break's rider or riders charging down to the finish trying to hold off the chasers. 

Alejandro Valverde had a strange TDF, he was consistent yet unspectacular, and unusually for him never really came close to winning a stage. He supported Quintana well though and landed himself a top ten placing, something that was probably his target pre-race. He's got a good record in this race with two wins and a 3rd last year, but is he any value at 5/1? I'm not sure. It looks a bit tight to me and given how he never really excelled at the Tour, and had to work hard for Quintana, I'm not sure he'll have the legs to win this, but he's a very possible podium finisher. 

Greg Van Avermaet - took his stage brilliantly in the Tour, attacking on one of the toughest days of the Tour outside the big Alpine and Pyreneen stages. His attack away from De Gendt on one of the steepest parts of the Col de Perthus was exactly what is needed to win in this sort of race. He almost pulled it off on the Tontorra last year until faith, or to put it another way, a moron on a motorbike, intervened. I think he has a big chance again here, he basically spent the second half of the Tour recovering and resting after a final effort on stage 10 to Revel when he finished 4th. 

Philippe Gilbert skipped the Tour again this year and is one of those riders who will have been able to prepare spcifically with this race in mind. He won the Belgian Championships again this year and followed that with an average performance in the Tour of Poland. This is a race that suits him too though and like last year, it will be hard to predict who of the BMC men will be given team leader status, and it might be just decided out on the road. If it comes to a reduced group finish then Gilbert would have a better chance than Van Avermaet, but I'm a bit worried he'll be left behind on the steeper parts near the finish like last year. 

Joaquim Rodriguez had a stealthy but unspectacular Tour also, with 2nd on Mont Blanc his best result, but he pulled off an impressive 7th place overall. 3rd two year's ago, he attacked late on the Tontorra but was reeled in and dropped by Valverde on the run-in. He should have good legs after the Tour, but it was also quite a hard finish to the race and he could be fatigued. I don't think he'll be winning either. 

Dan Martin clearly had great legs at points in the Tour and had his best ever GC finish in the race. He should like that final climb, but getting away from the likes of the guys mentioned above will be really hard, and it will be hard for him to hold it to the finish and outsprint any guys he might be with, Valverde, Gilbert for example would beat him in a sprint. At 12/1 with the bookies paying 4 places he could be worth a shot. 

Adam Yates had a superb TDF but was just about hanging on for the last week. Will he have recovered in time? It's very possible - and we saw last year just how suited he is to a finish like this. He looks an OK price at 18/1 for the defending champ, especially as he's in such good form. Brother Simon, who came back from his drugs ban in the Tour of Poland got back to winning ways just a few days ago with victory in the Prueba Villafranca-Ordiziako Klasika ahead of Angel Madrazo. He will probably be riding in support of Adam but might get a chance to attack himself if they are all watching Adam. He's over twice Adam's price at 40/1.

Jarlinson Pantano was fantastic in the Tour, always aggressive and was rewarded with a fine stage victory. He really should have had a second stage victory though, but he went off the road and on to the grass just as Izagirre was putting the hammer down at the front and that was that. He can climb, he can sprint, but I'm just a little worried about the steepness of the final climb, he is more a grinder who keeps plugging away after getting dropped on the steep parts, he may not get a chance to get back on again if dropped by the faster climbers. 

Tony Gallopin had a pretty disappointing Tour by his standards, with a 7th place on the 2nd stage his best result. Winner of this race when still an up-and-comer in 2013, he is well suited to this race and attacking on the descent could be a winning move, if he can stay with the climbers over the final climb. Ion Izagirre took that fine stage win in the rain on the penultimate day of the Tour, he could be a good backup for Movistar if anything were to happen to Valverde - he could well be sent up the road on an attack on the Jaizkibel, to make others work and give Valverde a free ride. 

Bauke Mollema always seems to go well in this race and he's probably a man on a mission too following his disappointment of the Tour. He always goes well in this race, his record here reads 5th, 9th, 2nd, 6th in the last four years, and with a good looking Trek team with him he could well be on for a good result here again. At 40/1 with Bet365 he could be worth a shot. 

Diego Ulissi leads Lampre here and he too would be someone that could have a great chance. Two stage wins in the Giro, he was flying in May, then did the Tour of Slovenia and Poland, where he won the TT in Slovenia and finished 2nd in a stage, but had a pretty average Tour of Poland. It's not the strongest Lampre team possible and I think he could be isolated coming to the final climb, but he could be a factor in this race too. The downhill finish and flat sprint might go against him though. 

At bigger prices, Simon Clarke and Michael Woods could be two wildcards for Cannondale Drapac who will like this finish, Woods at 125/1 and Clarke at 150/1. Alexis Vuillermoz at 40/1, Nico Roche at 80/1 and Tom Jelte Slagter at 100/1 are others who could go well too.. 

It's not a race that a long-range attack wins too often, and it generally comes down to a charge up the final climb, but this year it adds a bit of confusion and mystery as both riders and fans are unfamiliar with it. Well, I say riders are, but there are definitely going to be some who will have done plenty of recon rides in the last week or two to suss it out. Maybe Gilbert who wasn't at the Tour, some of the local Spanish riders etc. I think most sort of know what's coming though, as it doesn't sound too dissimilar to the Tontorra. 

Valverde of course will be heavily involved in the finish and may have several Movistar team-mates getting him in to position as they approach the final climb. Likewise Rodriguez, Mollema, Gilbert and Van Avermaet should be put in good positions on time, but I worry that the likes of Dan Martin, Adam Yates and Pantano might be left a little isolated at this point. But that doesn't seem to stop Dan Martin at the moment, he practically rode every climb in the Tour without a single sign of a team-mate. 

I think it could be revenge time for Van Avermaet though and I think he will have been thinking about this race ever since he rolled over the line dejected last year. He had a relatively quite last ten days of the Tour, albeit he had to get over all the climbs, and he could come here relatively fresh. Bauke Mollema, Martin and Yates can be involved in the finish too.

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Greg Van Avermaet at 9/1 with Paddy Power

0.25pts each-way on Michael Woods at 125/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Simon Clarke at 150/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Bauke Mollema at 40/1 with Bet365 

Matchbets:

To come later