- Details
- Published on Monday, 18 April 2016 22:30
Giro Del Trentino
Trentino, Italy
April 19th to 22nd, 2016
BMC are not on the startlist for the Giro del Trentino again this year, so Richie Porte will not be here to defend his title from a year ago. Instead though, we have last year's runner-up Mikel Landa, three-time winner Damiano Cunego and 2012 winner Domenico Pozzovivo amongst the starting lineup looking for the win.
The format is the same as 2014 and 2015, with a short Team Time Trial to open proceedings, followed by three tough road stages, including a summit finish on stage 2 to Anras, just inside the Austrian border. This should lead to small time gaps between the main teams going in to stages 2, 3 and 4 but the gaps probably won't make much difference to the final standings with the three tough stages that lie ahead of them.
Last year's winner, Richie Porte isn't here, so it's over to runner-up Mikel Landa to show what he is capable of in his new kit with Team Sky. It's a pretty poor line-up for this race this year, you could count the amount of true world stars on two hands, with most of the teams here from way down the world rankings. A lot of the world's stars are in the Ardennes riding Flech-Wallone and Liege-Bastogne-Liege,
The race is run through one of the most beautiful parts of Italy, skirting along the Dolomites and dipping in to Austria for the end of stage 2 and start of stage 3. The route offers stunning scenery, steep climbs and the possibilty of snowy passes. First run in 1962, it lasted just two years before falling away again but was resurrected in 1979. It used to be a major Italian race for the local heroes preparing for the Giro but is now a far more international affair.
This is not a race for sprinters, and very few even bother coming here, some have gone to the Tour of Croatia instead this week. In fact there has been no bunch sprint since 2010, but the final stage this week in Cles could be a key stage for those who can sprint a bit despite the climbing, as the finish comes some 35kms after the last big climb of the day. The weather often plays a part in this race when it snows high up, but the forecast looks to be pretty good for the week.
The Route and Stage Predictions
Stage 1
Stage 1 - Riva del Garda to Torbole - Team Time Trial, 12.1km
Tuesday April 19th
The 40th Giro del Trentino Melinda starts once again with a Team Time Trial in the Garda Trentino area, from Riva del Garda to Torbole – the latter at its first time as a GdTM finish. It’s expected to be a pretty fast team time trial, with the wind possibly becoming a factor. It is a mainly flat route, with some technical corners that will need to be taken carefully at high speed.
Riva del Garda stages the opening time trial for the fourth time in the last five years. It is the main center of the Garda Trentino area, where the #GdTM will start until the 2018 edition. Torbole is a novelty for Giro del Trentino Melinda, it has never finished in this charming location. The stage starts by the harbour, skirts close to the coast then heads inland going slightly uphill until 7.7kms in where they then turn and head back downhill towards the coast again. They only rise 26m though at the highest point, so it is practically a flat course. There are very few bends in it also, especially in the latter half, so it should be all about power.
No BMC in the TTT gives other teams a chance to claim the prize, but there's really only three or four teams you can see winning this. Team Sky will have a big chance of course, they have a strong squad here and will be looking to get Landa off to a good start. If they are in with a chance of winning it we might even see them let Gianni Moscon, the only Italian in the team cross the line first and take the leader's jersey. He'll have to finish with the first five though if he is to have that honour. Boswell and Peters have big engines on them, and most of the others of course are strong riders, but this is a team that will be far more comfortable on the climbs than on TT bikes.
Astana also have a strong squad here and in fact with the likes of Kangert, Fuglsang, Nibali, Kozhatayev and Malacarne, they look to have a better 'core' engine than Sky. They've never been renowned for their TTT abilities, but they won't get many better chances than this to take a victory in one.
Bora Argon18 caused a bit of a surprise in this last year, but looking at their squad it probably wasn't that much of a surprise. I wouldn't be surprised if they have targeted this again this year as it is a nice way to notch a victory for the team and lift morale and confidence. Of the team that won here last year, Nerz, Voss, Konrad, Buchmann, Mendes, Huzarski and Benedetti are back to try again, with only Salerno being replaced by Muhlberger, an ok time triallist who was in their team that finished 2nd to EQS in the Czech Tour last year, They are clearly a squad that work well together and probably have been practicing the team time trial in recent weeks in preparation for this.
AG2R are the only other top level team here but it's hard to see them win this - like Sky, they look like a team for the hills rather than a flat TT, there really isn't a lot of power in the squad. Bardet and Pozzo aren't the worst TTers in the world, especially for mountain goats, but as a collective unit they don't look strong enough to me.
The only two other teams that I think could come close to Sky and Astana here are Drapac and GasProm RusVelo. Drapac get a rare chance to race with the big boys in Europe and they have some strong guys in their team - former Dutch ITT champion Peter Koning, Travis Meyer, Gavin Mannion, Lachlan Norris, Sam Spokes and Brendan Canty - they are all strong guys who could go well here. GasProm RusVelo are led by former Katusha rider Alexander Kolobnev, and you just never know what the Russian team are capable of... They are a tight unit of Russians who may well have been practicing frantically for a crack at this TTT and could well pull off a surprise.
I can't really see any of the other teams causing a surprise really, Androni-Giacatolli, Nippo-Vini Fantini, Caja Rural, Skydive Dubai, Bardiani-CSF.. none of them have the firepower to beat the top World Tour teams here so it will be matchbets with them I think, trying to figure out where some value might lie, but even then the choice is pretty limited. Not really a day for getting stuck in, neither of the top teams appeal greatly at the prices really - Astana are just 10/11 and that's short, but about right and they look the most likely winner. Sky at 10/3 don't appeal either really and Bora-Argon are far shorter than I was hoping for, they are just 1/2 to finish in the top 3. Drapac might do ok too given the opposition here. Start list and times are here
Recommendations:
2pts win on Astana at 10/11 or try to get better than evens on Betfair
Matchbets
Drapac to beat Gasprom - 2pts at 5/6
Route Map
Profile
Stage 2
Stage 2 - Arco to Anras, 220km
Wednesday 20th April
A good start for Astana then, we had to wait less than 3 minutes after Sky had finished to find out they had won, there was no one going to beat a time that beat Sky by 14". Nibali gave the first leader's jersey to long-time servant Valerio Agnoli, a nice touch for a man who has been by Nibali's side for eight years. AG2R will be happy with their ride, coming in in the same time as Sky, meaning that Pozzovivo and Bardet start the road stages on the same time as Landa, but they have 14" to make up on Nibali who can defend now.
It was a bad start for Brendan Canty and Drapac though, they had two riders come down in a crash on a tight left-hand bend and another rider had to swerve in behind a parked car, thus ruining their chances, they finished with only 5 men and lost the matchbet to Gasprom. So a more or less flat day with the profit from Astana's win being offset by the loss on Drapac, but Nibali for the overall took a nice boost.
After hosting the TTT finish in 2012, 2014 and 2015, Arco will stage its first start since 2013. Anras is a brand-new uphill finale for Giro del Trentino, it's never had a stage that has finished in Anras. On the other hand, the Italian race is not new to Tirol. The last time GdTM crossed the Austrian border was in 2013, when the 37th edition started with two half-stages in Lienz. Vincenzo Nibali earned the overall honours that year.
This is a tough stage that is rising almost from kilometre 0 and climbs all the way to the 191km mark before descending for 25kms. This should see some incredibly high speeds as teams look to tee up their men for the final drag to the line, a tough 4kms at a 7% average gradient. The stage travels through the Provinces of Trento and Bolzano, making it a lumpy and weary route, rising uphill for most of the time from Trento on, giving a break away a chance of success. But as time differences are likely to be small in deciding the overall in the race, expect the GC favourites teams to do their best to reel them in before the final sting.
This is a strange stage, rising almost continuously as they head towrds Austria and the summit finish at Anras. There is a lumpy little hill to get over after just 30kms, then it drags upwards gently for 100kms heading north-west before they cross the Cat 2 Sciaves climb and turn to head north, dragging on for another 50kms.
With 30km to go they finally start descending and descend until the bottom of the final climb up to Anras. The climb averages 6.7% for 3.7kms, but there are sections at the start of the climb that average 14, 13, 12 and 11%, then eases up with 1500m to go to around 3% before a final kick up to the finish for 600m at 8%.
It's a long stage at 220kms, and they will be facing a headwind for the last 80kms as they head north to Anras. It will be a hard stage to control, but as there are only three road stages and it being the only summit finish of the day, Astana, Sky and AG2R will be keen to pull back the break of the day and set up a showdown on the final climb for the stage and bonus seconds that go with it.
Given that that is probably going to be the outcome of the stage, then we can narrow it down to the riders we think can excel on a finish like this. You have to start with Vincenzo Nibali and Mikel Landa of course, if they want to win this race then they will probably have to battle it out tomorrow. Whether that is for the stage win too is the question..
Landa has 14" to make up on Nibali and you'd have to think that tomorrow is his best chance - there's lots of climbing in the next two stages too but as both of those stages finish well after the final climb of the day, it's unlikely he'll be able to shake off Nibali. Sky will drill it for a lot of the last 90kms I think in an effort to thin out the peloton and try to isolate Bardet, Pozzovivo and Nibali, but the climbing isn't that hard and there's a chance for a lot of them to recover and rejoin the leaders before the final push to the line.
It's in the opening 2kms of the final climb though that the real pressure needs to be put on. With the average gradient over 10% a strong push here by Astana could shed a lot of Landa's support men if they've been working hard all day. AG2R will also look to push on and could well try the 1-2 with Bardet going first and Pozzovivo counter-punching later.
Landa was impressive on stage 2 of Pais Vasco though when he was still fresh, he attacked on the really steep parts at the bottom of a similar climb to this one tomorrow, stretching it out and then going again with Kelderman when he came past him. They held off a peloton with Contador, Henao, Quintana, Sanchez and the rest, and he kicked hard in the sprint again in the final kick up to the line, a bit like what is required tomorrow. If he can repeat that he has a great chance, if Nibali goes with him, Landa would win the sprint based on his finish in that stage in Pais Vasco.
Nibali of course will put up a good fight, and if Landa is not the same Landa that started Pais Vasco and more the Landa that finished it, then Nibali could just ride away from him. It was also maybe significant that Landa was dangling at the back of the TTT today, he is supposed to be in top shape, but it certainly didn't look that way today. Nibali has been saying that he is only at 80-90% for this race as he has just come back from a big training block at altitude, and has been saying Landa is the favourite to win this race.. All mind games I think, and Nibali will be fired up to lay down a marker I think ahead of the Giro. He could attack early on this climb and look to put the race to bed, but I think he can afford to sit in, let Sky and AG2R do a lot of the work and then counter later if he has the legs.. He has the lead now and can defend. But I think if he sees an opportunity to go for the jugular, I think he'll go for it.
Bardet and Pozzovivo both have chances too of course, and of the two, I think Bardet might have the better legs and the better chance, but Pozzovivo always goes well on these roads and is a big danger for a late atack if Landa and Nibs watch each other. I have a feeling though that we could see all the favourites neutralise each other a little, and there could be a pause of sorts in the easier section until an all out battle for the last 600m. If that is the case, I'd back Bardet to be one of the strongest, he has a very strong kick on him after a hard climb. He is preparing for another tilt at LBL on Sunday, he was 6th there last year, ahead of Henao, Pozzovivo, Fuglsang and Moreno. I think he could give it a good blast tomorrow and see how it goes as a prep run for LBL and has a big chance I think.
We might get opportunitsts try to get away as the favourites watch each other - guys like Stefano Pirazzi, Gianni Moscon, Mauro Finetto or Sergio Pardilla. Rodolfo Torres could play a part in a stage like this too, but I think he might wait for an attack on the final day, but one that interested me was Manuel Bongiorno, he put out some big watts today in the TTT, he did a stint for 70 seconds at the front that averaged 7.66 W/Kg, a massive pull. If he can put that sort of wattage down tomorrow on the last pull up to the line, he might just get away. At 66/1 with Bet365 he's worth a small bet.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Romain Bardet at 4/1 with Bet365
0.3pts each-way on Manuel Bongiorno at 66/1 with 365
Matchbets
Pardilla to beat Torres - 2pts at 5/6
Stage 2 Map
Stage 2 Profile
Stage 2 Key Climbs
Stage 3
Stage 3 - Sillina to Mezzolombardo, 204.5kms
A very strange stage today, what we saw of it, as the coverage was just appalling. Snatches of coverage showed Moscon on the front, Pozzovivo and Bardet going on the attack, then Landa attacking, then Landa with a decent lead..No sign of Nibali, he was struggling somewhere. Then suddenly Landa comes in to view with a few hundred metres left, followed by Frisanov and Cunego. It was a strange top 10, but Bardiani will be happy with two men in the top 6 and Gasprom will be pretty happy with a man on the podium at the moment.
But what of Nibali? He claimed he wasn't 100% and it was Landa was going to win, but normally you take that kind of talk with a large pinch of salt, but maybe he was just being honest and saying it how it is. Landa now holds the lead though and it's going to be very hard to shake him from the top step. Bardet let us down for the main bet, finishing 7th, right beside his team-mate Pozzo. Pardilla at least won the match-bet with Torres..
Stage 3 starts from Sillian, Austria, hosting another stage departure three years after the race stage 2 in 2013. That time, the stage ended uphill in Vetriolo Terme, and saw Kanstantsin Siutsou's take the stage victory. Sillian also hosted a Giro d'Italia stage start extactly 10 years ago: it was stage 18, finishing in Gemona del Friuli With the finish in Mezzolombardo, the Paganella upland opens its "cycling spring": after this stage with Paganella as the main and decisive climb in the finale, Andalo will host an important uphill will host an important uphill finish of Giro d'Italia stage 16 barely a month later - on May 24th.
The stage starts in Austria but they are in a neutralised part until they get to Verciaco in Italy for the start proper. The predominantly head south-east for the day with the route descending for the first 105kms before they hit the first of two tough climbs on the day.
First comes Nova Ponente, 20 km uphill, pretty steady in the first part, but constantly above 7% gradient in the last 6 km to the KOM. After around 10kms of riding along the plateau after the climb they descend for 18kms, then 21kms along the flat before they start the next climb, the Fai della Paganella. This one is ‘only’ 12 km, but the climb gets demanding pretty soon, and gives very little rest to the riders until 2 km to the top. The toughest kilometre, with a 8,8% average gradient, will be faced with 3 km to the peak: it might be the right time to make a move. After the KOM banner, 14 km will be left to the finish, almos all on a very quick and not exceedingly technical descent, with the last 2.5kms more or less a straight road to the line.
Landa is just 7/4 with Bet365 and 9/4 with Paddy Power, who seem to have just woken up to the fact this race is on, three stage in. Yes, he climbed well today, yes it's a tough climb tomorrow and he could ride away from them all away again and hold them off on the descent to the finish. Yes, Sky have a strong squad to chase down attacks and set him up.. but 9/4, or worse, 7/4 for a climber with the stage potentially being decided in a reduced group sprint? The same guy who started like this in Pais Vasco and then faded out of contention? Not for me.
Nibali's price also shows a divergence of opinion between the two bookies, with PP going 3/1 and 365 6/1. With Fuglsang now in 2nd place on the GC, will he be made ride as a domestique tomorrow and then take it easy to recover for Liege at the weekend? Or will we see him come out fighting now that he has suffered the ignominy of finishing 32" down on Landa today? This climb is longer and steadier so might suit him better, and of course we all know how good a descender he is, he could attack near the top of the climb and solo to victory. Really hard to know what sort of Nibs will turn up tomorrow.
Firsanov is clearly riding incredibly well, he was the closest to Landa today and looked strong. He recently won the Coppi e Bartali and the Giro dell' Appennino so the warning signs were there he was capable of a big ride like that today, and that Giro dell' Appennino win just 3 days ago came on a lumpy course that had a several climbs, including a descent 5.5kms from the finish and he won solo by 25" from Gavazzi with a very powerful display. But that was quite an inferior opposition to tomorrow's and with him being in 2nd place it's hard to see them letting him slip away.
Pozzovivo looked ok today but I can't see him soloing to victory here or winning a reduced sprint, Romain Bardet might go well tomorrow, the climb should suit him and we could see him attack near the top and try to solo to the finish like he did in the Criterium de Dauphine last year. He also isn't bad in a reduced sprint though so he could have a chance tomorrow too - he's just 7/2 with 365 but 7/1 with PP, but after he fared poorly for us today I'm not sure I wan to back him again.
There really could be anything happen again tomorrow and I'm not that tempted by anyone really - With the lack of top teams here, the lower-ranked teams have opportunities to strike out and go to try to win the stage and anything could happen really. Sergio Pardilla seems to be riding well and recently took 3rd in Amorbieta, but he's only ever won 5 pro races so how can you trust him. Same goes for so many others.
One though that might be worth a little bet on though is Giulio Ciccone of Bardiani - he was 4th today, so he clearly can climb, and at the start of the season he finished 5th in the GP Costa Degli Etruschi in the sprint, behind Bole, Gavazzi, Ulissi and Fedi, not a bad result. He also finished 2nd in the Piccolo Giro di Lombardia last Autumn so he clearly is a rising talent. At 33/1 he's about the only one that interests me.
It's not often I do it, but I'd almost recommend keeping your money in your pocket tomorrow and see how it goes, we can maybe take a view then for the final stage, but Ciccone might give us a small chance at an ok price.
Recommendation:
0.5pts each-way on Giulio Ciccone at 33/1 with Bet365
MatchBets:
Ciccone to beat Buchman and Scarpone to beat Peraud - 2pts on the double at 1.4/1 with Bet365
Stage 3 Map
Stage 3 Profile
Stage 3 Last 5kms
Stage 3 Key Climbs
Stage 4
Stage 4 - Malè to Cles, 161.5kms
The same start and finish towns as stage 4 of last year's race and although the opening 80kms or so are pretty much the same, the latter part of the stage is very different.
The Trofeo Melinda roads, between Val di Sole and Val di Non, from Malè to Cles, are set to prove decisive for the final outcome. 161 km with no flat ground nor breathers for the riders. In addition to the classic climbs, Fondo – to be repeated twice – and Marcena di Rumo, the Forcella di Brez is set to characterize the stage, and possibly the whole race. Six kilometres uphill, with tough gradients all the way, it should splinter the race and make a big selection, maybe even the decisive one to proclaim the new Giro del Trentino Melinda winner.
After the Forcella di Brez, the riders will ride downhill to Cles, pass under the finishing banner and take in the final 14km lap. After a gentle pull up from 5kms to 3kms to go, the last 3kms are downhill and almost dead straight, so if there are small gaps between the leaders there will be a frantic chase to the line.
Impossible stage to call again tomorrow.. The Forcella di Brez will split things up again, it's a particularly hard climb, 6kms at 10.5% and we could well see a similar situation to today when a group of only 10-15 are left at the finish. The big difference to today's stage though is that there are still 35kms to go from the top of the climb to the finish, including a lumpy finishing circuit of 14kms around Cles.
Landa looked very strong today, but not strong enough to stop Astana from riding away to a stage victory with Kangert. Nibali was dropped, came back, was dropped again and ended up 2 1/2 minutes down. Patrick Konrad and Buchmann were great too, getting dropped towards the end of the climb and then coming back again, and if only Kangert hadn't soloed away Konrad would have been celebrating a stage win. AG2R had strength in numbers, with Peraud riding out of his skin and attacking a number of times, and Bardet and Pozzovivo also prominent. Firsanov and Bernal continue to impress with top ten finishes again.
Konrad proved the best sprinter out of the leading group today and if he and Buchmann can be in the front group again he has a chance again of taking the sprint. That is if it comes down to a sprint - we could get a late attack again like today, and Astana looks the most likely team to do it. Nibali might be starting to warm up now and might do a bit better, but it's likely now though he'll back off and save himself for Sunday.
Kangert and Fuglsang looked very strong today too and if they want to win this they only need to win the stage - the 10" bonus would win it for either of them, Fuglsang needs just a 1" gap to be sure, and they could easily pull repeated attacks in the closing stages to try to snap the elastic with Landa and get away. Landa was left totally isolated today, but maybe he will have more support today, it might be up to Astana to do all the driving to try to set it up for their men to attack, and Sky might have an easier day instead of having to control it. AG2R should have men in numbers again, possibly up to four up front, but none of them look like they have the power to get away like Kangert today, their attacks were pretty ineffective.
It's likely we'll see the same sort of group coming to the finish again tomorrow though, but there could be others come back and join them on the run to the finish this time, the climb is shorter at 6kms and there's 35kms to the finish. We may see the likes of Finetto, Pirazzi, Ciccone, Pardilla, Busato and more rejoin, or even stay with the leaders in the first place. Matteo Busato of SouthEast Venezuala wasn't far off the leading group today, coming home in 11th with Dupont and Busato is a rider who can sprint a bit, he might have a chance in a stage like this if he can stay with the leaders. I'm going to give Ciccone another go too as it would be typical if he got in a winning position and I wasn't on him.
Recommendations:
0.3pts each-way on Giulio Ciccone at 33/1 with Bet365
0.5pts each-way on Matteo Busato at 18/1 with PP
Matchbets
Pozzovivo to beat Bernal - 2pts at 8/13 with Bet365
Finetto to beat Prades, Busatto to beat Pinto and Fuglsang to beat Landa - 2pts at 1.6/1
Stage 4 Map
Stage 4 Profile
Stage 4 Last Kilometres
Overall Contenders and Favourites
There are three tough mountain stages in this race, but only one of them is a summit finish, so the time bonuses may be less influential to the overall outcome of the race given that two of the stages could end in a reduced group sprint finish. It could be that the winner of the race will come from the winner of the summit finish of stage 2. Last year Richie Porte put distance between himself and everyone else with a dominant win in stage 2 and added to the advantage that he had gained by 2nd place in the TTT on day one he comfortably held his lead until the finish.
We could see something similar this year. There appears to be two riders who seem to be head and shoulders above the rest here - two time winner Vincenzo Nibali and last year's runner up, his former team-mate Mikel Landa.
When Vincenzo N
ibali won in 2013 it was remarkably similar in terms of the winning margin to Porte's win last year. Nibali won by 21" from Santambrogio and 55" from Bouet. Last year, Porte won by 22" from Landa and 58" from Leopold Konig. In 2013, Maxime Bouet went in to the final stage with a lead of 3'19" and 3'57" over Nibali, but he cracked badly on the final stage with the HC climb to Sega di Ala, a stage won in style by Nibali to steal the overall win. Nibali has a good chance to do something similar this year,
Astana should do well in the TTT, he should do very well on the uphill finish to stage 2, and you wouldn't put it past him to solo away to victory on the descent off the final climb on stage 3 too. He hasn't raced in a month since finishing 33rd in Milan San Remo, but with the Giro starting in just three weeks, he is sure to be close to top condition. Astana have some of their big guns here with Nibali, with his lieutenant Scarponi, Fuglsang, Malacarne, Kangert and Capecchi here to support him in the climbs.
His biggest rival should be his former team-mate Mikel Landa who has now moved on to team Sky - he'll be looking to take advantage of his chances to lead the team ahead of his debut in a Grand Tour with them in the Giro. He started the Pais Vasco well with a fine win on stage 2 but faded a little after that and eventually finished 12th in the GC and the team got behind Henao. He too has a strong team here with him, with Deignan, Boswell, Seb Hano, zandio, Peters, Moscon and Lopez. They should do ok in the TTT too, and Landa should have plenty of support on that tough finish of stage 2. I'm a bit worried how he faded away in Pais Vasco though, there will be no mercy from Nibali if he sees him struggling.
AG2R have two men who could challenge them though in Romain Bardet and Domenico Pozzovivo. Pozzovivo has won three stages in this race over the years and won the overall in 2012. Pozzovivo has been more disappointing than impressing in recent years though and hasn't had a great start to the year with only 17th in Catalunya and 32nd in Tirreno. If Landa and Nibali go slugging it out on the big climbs here, I'm not sure he'll be able to stay with them.
Romain Bardet on the other hand has been riding very well, with 2nd in Oman (behind Nibali), 9th in Paris-Nice and 6th in Catalunya with a number of top 10 placings along the way. AG2R will probably be behind Bardet and he could well be one of the closest challengers to the top two - we could see him launch himself off the front just before the top of the descent to the finish on stage 3 and try to hold the chasers at bay all the way to the finish. AG2R will have to put in a big TTT though to make sure that he isn't out of it before it even starts.
After that the quality of the opposition takes a marked drop - Bora-Argon18 could pull off another big ride in the TTT, they won it last year with a stunning ride. Their best chance probably sits with Dominic Nerz a decent young rider who finished 7th in the Criterium International this year and 15th in the Vuelta last year. He could go well with a decent looking team supporting him. Bardiani have Stefano Pirazzi and Francesco Bongiorno, two riders who will probably be quite agressive, but they'll have some time to make up after the TTT, probably 30" or so on Nibali. This will allow Nibali to just mark them, but he can't cover every attack. 80/1 sounds about right for Pirazzi though, he might steal a stage win, but I don't think he'll be troubling the podium.
Androni-Giacotelli have an old favourite of mine Rodolfo Torres who switched from the Colombia team in the off-season and he could like a course like this. He will probably go on the attack at some point, the question is will he get in the right break that stays away and possibly gains enough time to win him the race. They also have Tvetcov, Selvaggi, Pelizzoti and Gavazzi so they should be prominent in a big race for them.
Nippo Vini-Fantini have former winner Damiano Cunego, Antonio Nibali and Pier Paolo de Negri - Cunego will be their team leader and despite showing flashes of form at times, I can't see him causing any problems to Nibali or Landa.
Drapac and Caja Rural both have riders who could liven up this race, there are several riders between them that will probably be going up the road on a regular basis - Angel Madrazo, Sergio Pardilla, Hugh Carthy, Gavin Mannion, Brendan Canty. They may well be stage hunting, but I can't see thim hitting a podium spot here.
It looks like a perfect opportunity for Nibali to warm up with his team for the Giro and I think he will take all the beating. He should win, or come close to winning the uphill finish to stage 2 and he should also do well on stages 3 and 4 with the tough climbs followed by descents to the finish. I expect him to take a small advantage over Landa and the rest after the TTT also so they can ride to defend, and if he can win stage 2 the time bonus and a small gap should be enough to secure the win. Landa should be closest to him but Pozzovivo and Bardet should also make the top 5. Rodolfo Torres at 50/1 could be a good outsider, but with Astana likely to have strength in numbers, I wouldn't be surprised to see Kangert and Fuglsang finish in the top 10 also.
Recommendations:
3pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 5/6 with Bet365
1pt each-way on Romain Bardet at 11/1 with Bet365
0.25pts each-way on Rodolfo Torres at 50/1
Matchbets
Torres to beat Canty - 2pts at 5/6
Bardet to beat Fuglsang - 2pts at 4/6
