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Published on Tuesday, 12 April 2016 20:53

De Brabantse Pijl 2015

Leuven to Schoten

Wed 13th April, 205.3kms

After one of the most dramatic and exciting races I think I have ever see in Paris-Roubaix last Sunday, we move on to the final race of the 'Flanders Classics' on Wednesday with the Brabantse Pijl or 'the Brabantse arrow'. This is a race for the punchy sprinters, with plenty of little hills, some cobbles, but almost always ends in a reduced sprint finish of some sort. 

Last year saw Ben Hermans pull off a surprise win when he soloed away from his late break-away companion David Tanner and just held off the chasing pack. He caught up with a break that tried to escape with 34kms to go that included Vervaeke, Tanner, De Troyer and Matysiak, and less than a kilometre later Hermans rode away with just Tanner in tow, but try as they might behind, they couldn't reel them in. With 3.7kms to go Hermans attacked Tanner hard on the climb up to Schott and soloed to a famous victory.

Behind, with less than 4kms to go Gilbert attacked out of the peloton with Alaphilippe, then Gallopin, Matthews and Haas joined them, Alaphilippe jumped away from them but was reeled in by a small group on the final hill to the finish line. Hermans just held on and Matthews easily won the sprint for 2nd from Gilbert. 

Two years ago, Philippe Gilbert landed his second victory, with Michael Matthews finishing 2nd again. Gilbert used all his experience of the course to out-fox Matthews on the final bend. Matthews went up the inside, got trapped a little behind Arashiro, whereas Gilbert went around the outside and got an early jump on Matthews. 

The other impressive fact about Gilbert's win two years ago was that towards the end of the race a very dangerous group got away, Simon Gerrans being one of the escapees. Gilbert panicked a little and went off in solo pursuit to try to reel them in as he was not getting any help at the time from anyone else. He chased for almost 10kms before finally bridging, but shortly after Giant pulled the break back anyway! He still had enough in his legs though to power in to a good position on the final climb and then sprint to victory.

Gilbert has a pretty good record in the race to say the least, in the last eight years he has finished 1st, 2nd, 12th, 1st, 5th, 9th, 2nd and 3rd, an incredible series of results in one race. It's a really tough course, one for the real battlers and puncheurs.. Looking at the last few years result there were riders scattered all over the road with many of the field DNF'ing. It was even worse in 2012 when Voeckler won, with only 44 finishing out of 180 starters. 

Part of the reason for the high numbers of DNF'ers in 2012 was the terrible weather, with rain and hail hammering the peloton all day. This shouldn't be the case this year though as a sunny day is forecast, with temperature reaching as high as a 17º. Another general reason for the high number of DNF'ers, besides the tough course, is because of the nature and timing of the race - it essentially is a training ride to prepare for the Ardennes Classics for most of the peloton, which kick off on Sunday with the Amstel Gold race. 

Nine of the top ten from last season are here again with only Felline absent, Trek-Segafredo have not entered the race at all. Matthews will be hoping to finally win the race after two succesive 2nd places, but will have his work cut out as no one will want to just drag him to the line. 

The Route

The race starts in its traditional start town of Leuven and it is more or less the same route as last year's race. It heads in a predominantly south-westerly direction, pausing for a tricky little loop around the area just east of Overijse. This loop contains the climb of the Rue de Hal, the Alsemberg and the Bruineput.

After next taking in the climbs of the Karbosstraat, Rue de Nivelles, Chaussee de Bruxelles and Rue Francois Dubois, it then continues south-west until almost reaching Nivelles, before turning sharply and heading back north. They pass a number of Hellingen on the way before hitting the finishing loop which they take three times in total. And although there will be the traditional long break out front for most of the day, it's when they hit this finishing loop that things usually start to kick off. 

The finishing circuit has no fewer than five climbs over its 23.4kms, two of which are cobbled, meaning that they have to tackle 15 climbs over the closing 70km! 

The main challenges on the finishing circuit are the cobbled climbs of the Ijskelderlaan which comes 4.2kms from the finish line and the Schavei which is just 1.2km from the finish, with the road climbing all the way to the final bend. Once they hit the top the riders make a left-hand turn onto a slightly uphill finishing straight with just 200m to go to the line. You need to be in the first 5 or 6 taking the final bend as it is a very short run-in. The last 5kms are quite tricky with lots of bends and twists, including some hairpin bends on a descent, so you can see why the race is often blown to pieces.  

Contenders and Favourites

Ben Hermans won the race last year and is back again with a strong BMC squad. He was very strong in this race last year, bridging to the earlier break, riding the rest of the breakaway off his wheel, bar Tanner, and then riding away from him on the Isjkelderlaan. He just managed to hold a surging peloton at bay up the final climb to the finish but looked very strong in the closing kilometres. Hermans didn't show any form whatsoever last year ahead of this race, his best finish being a 9th place in a stage in Oman, and it's pretty much the same this year with a 5th place in Murcia the only result inside the top 30. He may try a similar move this year, but will find it a bit harder to get away this year I think as he'll be a marked man.

Philippe Gilbert was on the startlist as of Sunday, but was still recovering from the crazy attack he suffered at the hands of two drunks who accosted him while out training last week. He suffered a fractured finger in the attack and had to have five pins instered in his finger to secire three small fractures. He's had to take a few days off the bike to recover and BMC were due to assess him at the start of this week to see whether he will be able to take part. It now seems to be the case that the drivers were not in fact drunk, but had accosted Gilbert and two others because they were riding three-abreast on the road, and Gilbert pepper-sprayed them.. Pepper spray is classed as a dangerous weapon in Belgium and he could face Jail and a rather large fine if proven and he's charged with assault. 

He has been pulled out of this race in favour of recovering for the bigger Ardennes races to come though, but whether he lines up in Amstel Gold too remains to be seen. Dylan Teuns will be a BMC man to watch in this race instead though, he should be given freedom to roam and could be dangerous. He finished in 40th last year though so I'm not sure he likes the final hill so much, he might need to be part of a break or solo. 

Michael Matthews started the season on fire with a win in his very first race of the season, the prologue of the Paris-Nice no less. He also took that controversial stage win against Bouhanni and a 3rd place and two 5ths. He unfortunately was caught up in the same crash in Milan San Remo as Arnaud Démare, but didn't receive the same (very) sticky bottle that Démare did, so by the time he got back on, which was an achievement in itself, he was pretty shattered. Just last weekend he won the Vuelta Ciclista a la Rioja in Spain, a tough little race with plenty of hills.

He's joined here by Man of the Hour Matthew Hayman, and the team must be absolutely buzzing at the moment. With Matthews having a big chance here and Gerrans one of the favourites for Amstel Gold and Liege-Bastogne-Liege OGE really could be on a roll for the coming weeks. Hayman is part of a very strong looking team, with Albasini and Mezgec there to help him at the finish and Meier, Keukeleire, Haig and Howson to look after him out on the course. I think Matthews has a fantastic chance to finally land the win and is my strong favourite for the race. His problem will be that none of the other teams will want to drag him to the line so OGE will be under attack all afternoon. 

After the disappointment of Boonen missing out on the win at Paris-Roubaix, Etixx will look to get back to winning ways with Julian Alaphilippe, or possibly Peter Vakoc. Alaphilippe is the bookies best chance for Etixx in the race at just 10/1, with Vakoc a much higher 33/1. Alaphilippe rode well last year, attacking with Gilbert as they tried to catch Hermans, but faded on the final climb to the finish and eventually finished 19th. He's now a year older, a lot stronger and with a number of decent results under his belt, he should be involved in a finish like this. But the worry is that his form has been pretty poor since returning from illness - he has yet to finish a stage race he started this year and was also a DNF in Le Samyn. 

Peter Vakoc on the other hand has been on fire this year, racking up the top ten results, including an impressive 5th in Strade Bianche and wins in the Royal Bernard Drome Classic and the Classic Sud Ardeche. You need to be able to climb in Strade Bianche, especially at the finish, so we could well see Vakoc as the main man for Etixx in this. If Gianni Meersman can hang in there on the final climb he'd be a danger in the sprint to Matthews too, but I am not sure he'll hang in there. Laurens de Plus is riding very well at the moment too but I don't think we'll see him riding away from this lot and that would be his only chance of winning I think. 

Lotto Soudal are led by Tony Gallopin again this year and he was quite active in this race last year, going on the attack in the closing kilometres with Gilbert and co. It is a very strong team here with Lotto Soudal and there are several riders who could be considered as having a chance. Sean de Bie, Thomas de Gendt, Pim Ligthart, Tosh Van der Sande, Jelle Vanendert and Tim Wellens could all on a given day have a chance in the race. Gallopin is probably their best chance but unless he can slip the net with 5-10kms to go and soloes to the finish, I don't think he'll win it and is no value at 6/1. Ligthart or Wellens could be big dangers with a late attack and Van der Sande is probably their man if it comes to a sprint.

PP had Dimension Data's Nathan Haas at 16/1 but I can't see him being involved at the finish here. Cannondale have Slagter, Navardauskas, Nathan Brown and Toms Skujins who will be flying the flag for the Green Team. They have suffered badly as a team with illness, but I hear that they are starting to come out the right side of it now and are feeling a lot better. Slagter is 33/1 and he could have a chance if he can stay at the front up the final climb.

IAM have a pretty decent team here too, with Dries Devenyns riding well this year and last year's attacker David Tanner back again for more. He is really looking forward to the race, and hopes to go a bit better this year:

 "Along with the Amstel Gold Race, La Flèche Brabançonne has been my favorite race ever since I turned pro, the course just appeals to me. I love these short, stiff climbs for the puncheurs. As soon as we have to be climbing for more than ten minutes, I am at a disadvantage."

After racing the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana and Ruta del Sol in February, Tanner headed to the Sierra Nevada for altitude training in March in order to hit top form for De Brabantse Pijl and Amstel Gold Race. He was 66/1 with PP and it was worth a tiny investment just in case he makes it stick this year, sounds like he's up for it.. 

There are a number of Italians here who could go well too like Sonny Colbrelli, Simone Ponzi, Enrico Gasparotto but I'm going to leave them, I don't think they'll be involved in the scrap at the finish. Bryan Coquard didn't have a great race here last year, but he is riding probably the best he ever has this season so far, with eight top 5 placings already this season, including four wins. He blew another win in Dwars Door Vlaanderen when celebrating too soon and was picked off by Debusschere. He can handle the lumpy stuff sometimes and if he can get to the last bend close to the front he has a chance of beating Matthews in the sprint.

Two others that interest me a small bit are Koen de Kort of Giant Alpecin and Dimitri Claeys of Wanty. De Kort is riding well at the moment finishing 16th in GW, Giant's best place finisher, and 23rd in Paris-Roubaix Sunday. He has Tom Dumoulin in the race with him but I think it might be a better course for de Kort than Dumoulin and at 100/1 he's worth a nibble.

Dimitri Claeys has been riding well this year and was a man inspired in Flanders following the death of his team-mate Antoine Demoitie. He was 4th in the GP Marseille, 12th in Omloop and the Classic Loire Atlantique and 3rd in a stage of the Etoile de Besseges just behind Coquard and Pelucchi. He could get in the break of the day and if they stay away he has a chance. If not, he could still be involved in the finish and could come close. At 300/1 he's a wild shot with an outside chance. 

I think that Matthews is going to be very hard to beat though - he should have won last year, and probably the year before too, and he seems to be in great shape this year. He has a strong team with him, and as long as they didn't overdo it on the Kwaremont beer after Hayman's epic win in Flanders there should be Impey, Keukeleire, Howson, Meier and maybe Hayman there to set him up for it, and he'll do the rest in the last kilometre. He opened at 6/4 with PP, then went 7/4 as others were being backed and is now 5/2 with Ladbrokes and I think that's a fair enough price. Gallopin and Alaphilippe have been backed, but I can't trust either of them to finish it off so I've a few others at big prices that might give us a bit of fun.

Recommendation:

2pts win on Michael Matthews at 5/2 with Ladbrokes

0.2pts each-way on Bryan Coquard at 50/1 with PP (take the 25/1 now)

0.3pts each-way on Peter Vakoc at 33/1 with PP (has come in a lot since I started writing this, take the 16/1 now)

0.2pts each-way on Koen de Kort at 100/1 with Ladbrokes

0.1pts each-way on Dimitri Claeys at 300/1 with PP

0.1pt each-way on David Tanner at 66/1 with PP

 Matchbets:

Vakoc to beat Tanner, Gallopin to beat Dumoulin, Matthews to beat Alaphilippe - 3pts on the treble at 1.6/1