Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Markina-Xemein to Baranbio-Garrastatxu (Amurrio)

Tuesday, April 5th, 174.3kms

 

Well that was annoying - the break just held on and denied us an each-way payout on Felline who finished 4th, if they had reeled them in he'd have finished 2nd. It was so close he was given the same time as Sanchez and Navarro who had attacked on the final climb and descended like madmen to hold off the chasing pack. I'm a bit annoyed I overlooked LL Sanchez, he has been a favourite of mine for years now for late attacks on finishes like this. Steve Cummings gave it a go too for us inside the last few kilometres and got a small gap but was reeled in again, I thought he might have a go. Dan Martin sprinted to 7th, bodes well for tomorrow's stage. Contador, Pinot and Quintana weren't far off the front either. Vichot had a poor day, but Visconti finished with the lead group, just behind Mikel Landa. 

Stage 2 could see the first skirmish amongst the GC men with an uphill finish to Garrastatxu, on a long and lumpy stage that has barely a kilometre of flat road in its 174km distance. With the fact that the race could be decided on very small margins, the break may not be given much freedom today and we should see the GC favourites scrap it out for the stage win. 

In previous editions stage 2 used to finish in Vitoria-Gasteiz and with a sprint finish, but it doesn't look like it's going to be a sprint finish this year with the final climb averaging 11.7% for 2.7kms! It's going to be very fast for the last 60kms as they roll around in the loops just west of the finish. The last 3kms to the finish are pretty much straight but with an average gradient of nearly 12% it's a hard finish to the stage and we'll see the first time gaps amongst the GC favourites. 

It's a reasonably long stage at 174kms, 30kms longer than today or about 45mins in the saddle. Today was a lot more aggressive and hard than I think some expected and it was full gas all the way for the last 40kms or so. The fact that only only 60 finished within 2 minutes of the winner showed that, I don't think many expected to be losing over eight minutes on the first day (about a third of the peloton are more than eight mins behind already)

Dan Martin tops my list for this stage as it looks like a mini Liege-Bastogne-Liege with barely a flat metre of road on the whole journey. He will be perfectly comfortable in that run-in for the last 60kms and then there's the finish - 2.8kms at 10.5% average, hitting 18, 19 and 20% in places inside the last 2kms. It's a bit like the finish up the hill in Ans in LBL but a bit steeper and a bit longer, but Martin should be one of the favourites on a finish like this to attack with 1500m or so to go on the steep parts around 16-20% and there mightn't be many able to stay with him like in Catalunya on the climb to La Molina. He looked strong today when Contador attacked, he was one of only ten that went with him at the top of the final climb and sprinted to a good 7th place finish.

 

 

Alberto Contador should like this finish too and it's likely we'll see a big dig from him at some point on the climb - in fact, I wouldn't be surprised if he was one of the first to go, right from the bottom. I think he fears Nairo this week and may look to test him early and see what sort of form he's in. He may attack but I'm not sure he'll drop the better climbers here, he wasn't able to ride away from the others in Catalunya, he couldn't stay with Martin on La Molina and was no match for Quintana on Port Ainé, but the steeper gradients of this climb suits him better. 

Sergio Henao opened as favourite though with PP when they came out with their prices around 6.30pm, at 9/2, but there wasn't much in it between him and Martin (5/1), Contador (6/1) and Rodriguez (6/1). Since then, money has come for Contador and he's in to 7/2, with Martin out to 7/1 and Henao is now 5/1. Henao looked good for a long time in the GP Miguel Indurain at the weekend, going on the attack with Ion Izagirre in the closing stages, but when push came to shove in the last 500m, he tried to get by Izagirre but simply was unable to, he just didn't have the kick to come by him. Ok, he had worked really hard while Izagirre had Viconti with him to help him. But Izagirre is no Martin, Quintana or Contador so he will have to come home solo to win it I think. 

Joaquim Rodriguez could also feature on a final climb like this, but he's shown nothing to me this year so far to make me want to back him at 50/1, yet alone at 5/1. Daniel Moreno looked good and lively for a while in GP Miguel Indurain, chasing down Yates and helping his team-mates, resulting in Izagirre's win. He also rode ok in Tirreno, taking 4th on the stage Cummings won. It may be that he could be sent up the road first to make the other favourites chase him while Quintana punches later, and if they hesitate he may just hang on. 

Thibaut Pinot is only 14/1, but I can't see him staying with the faster guys at the finish here. Fabio Aru won't be winning here either I think. Some others that are interesting for a finish like this might be the likes of Alexis Vuillermoz - he has been riding really well lately, taking 5th in the Criterium International, thanks to a fine 4th place on the Queen stage to Col de l'Ospidale, He likes a steep finish like this and he's tempting at 25/1 with PP, he's only 16/1 with Bet365.

Others who might go well - Simon and Adam Yates could like this finish, Miguel Angel Lopez and Mikel Landa could be anything tomorrow, they could be right up there or they might be way off the pace, hard to tell. Jelle Vanendert was on the attack today with Phil Deignan for a while but he's better on a steeper finish, he has finished 4th and 6th twice in Fleche-Wallone after all. It's a long shot, but at 150/1 it's worth a small bet I think. But they are all guys who are likely winners should it finish with the main favourites up front. There's also the possibility of course that the break of the day makes it, and then it's break lottery time.. Christophe Riblon, Omar Fraile, Pelle Bilboa, Pieter Serry, Amets Txurruka, Ruben Plaza.. so many that could be involved.. I've plumped for a few at big prices for an interest. 

Overall though, I think it could be a little like the finish on La Molina in Catalunya, with the favourites duking it out and Contador probing, Quintana watching and Dan Martin hopefully sprinting away. They could also be caught out by Vuillermoz if they watch each other too much. I like Vuillermoz and Adam Yates in their matchbets too. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 8/1 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 25/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Jelle Vanendert at 150/1 with PP

0.1pts each-way on Ruben Plaza at 400/1 with Bet365

0.1pts each-way on Luis Angel Mate at 400/1 with Bet365

 

 

Matchbets

Alexis Vuillermoz to beat Simon Yates - 2pts at 5/4 with Bet365

Adam Yates to beat Mikel Landa - 3pts at 5/6

Henao to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 4/6

 

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Stage 3 

Stage 3 -  Vitoria-Gasteiz to Lesaka

Wednesday, April 6th, 193.5kms

Well that was an interesting finish then wasn't it? Mikel Landa... I said he could be anything today, but I don't think anyone expected that (except one shrewdie I know who was on him at 40s...). A brutal last 2.8kms blew the race apart and the riders were coming in in ones and twos all over the place. Sergio Henao was unlucky in that if the two up the road hadn't gone on the attack, he'd have been sprinting for stage glory and the GC lead, something that would have been hard to shake off him. Contador lost 6" to Henao, Quintana lost 10". Kelderman was fantastic for such a big man, he delivered some serious power in the last 1500m or so to help drag themselves away from the chasers.

Sammy Sanchez, Rui Costa, Robert Gesink and Thibaut Pinot were also impressive, but Rodriguez and Martin were not so, Martin got caught out on the very steep parts and lost ground too early, he couldn't recover and get back on. Vuillermoz finished 24th, which was a bit disappointing, but not as disappointing as the Yates brothers, particularly Simon who was backed heavily this morning for both the win and in his match bet with Vuillermoz. I recommended AV at 5/4, he went off at 7/4 as money piled on Simon Yates, who went off at 2/5...

Thankfully AV did the business, Yates finishing 19" behind him. Henao to beat Rodriguez also landed so it was just a small loss of 2.75 points on the day. Henao is definitely in the GC running now though, Landa may have been good today, but he may not last as well as Henao on the Queen stage, having just started racing. Kelderman is a factor now too though, as he has the likes of Gesink who finished 9th today on the same time as Quintana to support him.  

The third stage should be a more relaxed affair for the favourites, but the stage hunters and the sprinters should be eyeing up this stage. They start in Vitoria-Gasteiz and head towards San Sebastian and the coast before turning south-west again and finishing in Lesaka.

The stage has five climbs and all of them in the second part of the stage. There are three little climbs to get over in the last 35kms, the last climb is the 3rd Cat Piedad, which comes just 9 kms from the finish line. The final climb isn't too difficult, so most of the stronger sprinters might be able to hang in there to fight out the finish.  

The betting is wide open as you'd expect for a stage like this with a field like this, Felline and Gerrans are joint favourite at 7/1, Paddy Power haven't bothered to price it up as of 23:30 tonight. Gerrans got the better of Felline on stage 1 but that was at the end of a chaotic chase downhill to the line in pursuit of Sanchez. But there are 9kms to go in this stage from the top of the last climb and in a flat out sprint, Felline might get the better of him. But it is so hard to pick a winner here - the break could make it, and it's impossible to pick the constituents of the break, a late attack over the final climbs could steal it, or we could have a sprint finish with possibly a surprise winner.

I really can't find a whole lot of value out there for the stage, I'm not sure the climber types will be winning the stage, so Dan Martin at 16/1 and Henao at 18/1 don't make sense to me. If we take it that the break will be reeled in before the finish we may see counter attacks from the likes of Steve Cummings, but he's now just 28/1 instead of the 125/1 I backed him at on Monday. Now that Luis Leon Sanchez has lost the lead he has a chance of going on the attack again off the final climb, but it's unlikely he'll be let go again. Brambilla could go well, Tim Wellens, Simon Clarke, Paolo Tiralongo.. any one of about 100 guys could win tomorrow.

Fabio Felline is maybe worth an each-way to see if he can get in to the top 3 again, he would have been 2nd on stage 1 if the break had been reeled in. One other I wanted to have a go at was Simon Geschke, he is targeting stage wins in this race and he hasn't many chances left after this, so at 80/1 with Bet365 he's a speculative stab to try a late attack on the run-in. I came very close to making this a 'no bet' preview, something I don't think I've done in a long time...! None of the match-bets even appeal to me..

On the overall betting though, I still think Henao is the man for Sky, I agree with Bet365 having him as second favourite at 4/1 and Landa at 11/1, I think Landa may fade later in the week when the lack of race miles might take their toll on him. Henao looked good again today and gained time on Contador, and I'm happy with my position on him at 6/1 for the overall, I'm not tempted to back Contador at just 6/4 though. Kelderman looked good, Costa looked sprightly and Quintana is still in the running despite not being able to go with Henao or Contador today.

One who caught my eye a little though was Sebastian Reichanbach who climbed really well today finishing in 10th just 15" down on Landa. If he can climb as well on the Queen stage he has a chance of a big result as he would be one of the better time triallists in the race. He's still 150/1, but unfortunately Bet365 are offering win-only and no one else is pricing up the overall from what I can see. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 7/1 with Bet365

0.2pts each-way on Simon Geschke at 80/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

none..  

 

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Stage 4 

Stage 4 - Lesaka to Orio

Thursday, April 7th, 165kms

 

A good day today with Kittel landing the win for us at 6/4 in the Scheldeprijs, but it was closer than I expected, Cav almost got around him at the death, Kittel was just strong enough to hold him off. Greipel did a great sprint too to take 3rd place and land the match bet vs Kristoff. Theuns was desperately unlucky not to land another podium, finishing in 4th place, Groenewegen finished 9th and Bennett was in 12th, both looked very prominent in the closing kilometres, but weren't able to come close to Kittel and Cavendish. Viviani was a disaster though, coming in 23" down.

Meanwhile in Pais Vasco, Steve Cummings infuriated me with his win today, I had picked him out for yesterday's stage at 125/1, he tried but failed, then left him for today as he was just 28/1.. almost 100pts lower.. and he only goes and wins. Terrible tactics again from Orica who were all over the place with Albasini attacking, Yates attacking and in the end Simon Gerrans had no one left to pull back Cummings. And when will they learn that they can't leave Stevo just go like that, he's bloody good at finishing off a race.

At least Felline got up to land 3rd place and more or less leave us flat on the day, so a nice little profit overall. With Sagan winning on Sunday, Kittel winning today, we are going for the hat-trick of winners this weekend with Paris-Roubaix.. but who will it be? Preview will be ready by Friday night.    

The 4th stage sees them skirt along the coast near San Sebastian, generally heading west, but along the way, they cross the well-known Cat 1 climb of the Jaizkibel after just 29kms, before a flat run for 70kms until they reach Aia for the first time. They pass through Aia three times in total, the first time from the harder side with 100kms gone, then again two more times with less than 20kms to go. The second time is up the easier side after 147kms, then they quickly follow that with an ascent up the steeper side with just 13kms to go.

The steeper side is just 1.7kms long, but it averages 12% and there are some really steep parts in it - the first kilometre of the climb averages a nasty 13.5% but the final 500m are a leg-breaking 17%. The easier side is longer at 3.5kms, but it averages 8.7%. Once over the top for the second time there are just 13kms to go and there is a small little lump to get over with just 2kms to go before they finish on the beach at Orio.

Last year's stage saw a massive break of 30 riders get away and come to the final three ascents of the climb to Aia - Rein Taaramae put in a big team effort to help Landa by attacking on the first ascent up to Aia. By the time they came to the final ascent up the hill to Aia there were only four riders left, including Landa and Taaramae. The final climb is a real leg-breaker, hitting 20-26% along the way. It's so steep that many riders are barely keeping their bikes moving and sometimes if the crowd encroaches or a rider bumps in to another you can get a lot of riders having to walk up the hill. Jump to 15:00 to see the first time up the climb and 43:00 for the final ascent to the line. 

 

This is a horrible finish to the stage and another horrible stage to try to pick a winner from - the big difference to the stage this year from last year though is that instead of finishing at the top in the village of Aia, they descend for 9kms, before going over a small little lump with 2kms to go before finishing on a flat run to the line. It is a likely stage for a break to succeed though so first of all I'm going to pick a few for the breakaway lottery, we could get another break with 30 riders go again.. so a few win only bets, all or nothing with them! Usual suspects, some of which were in the break last year.. Nicholas Edet at 250, Pieter Serry at 200, Luis Angel Mate at 200, Angel Madrazo at 200 and Igor Anton at 100.

If it does come down to a favourites finish, it will be an interesting duel between the Sky men as Mikel Landa leads the GC, won this stage last year and has to make time I think ahead of the TT. Does Henao work for him tomorrow and try to get him more of an advantage ahead of the Queen stage and the TT? I think he may fade on Friday so he could do with all the time he can get. He was very fast over the closing kilometre last year, pulling away from the rest of the break very quickly, but the rest of the break were pretty wrecked and Tim Wellens isn't exactly a noted climber.

Or does Sergio Henao go for it? He too was impressive last year sprinting away from the rest of the favourites, when only Rodriguez was able to stay with him and he sprinted away from him in the end to take 6th place, 53" behind Landa. Henao came in to the race as team leader for Sky and may well look to stamp his authoriy on the race with a big ride tomorrow. He has looked good and strong and clearly likes this hill and I think he'd be my pick if they were finishing on the hill top again. But with 13kms still to go to the line he'll have to have a decent lead built up (20"+) in order to hold them off on the run to the line. What will be in his favour though is that the race will be in bits behind and it will be hard to organise a chase. 

Samu Sanchez may have been impressive on stage 2 taking 4th place, but he struggled on this climb last year and he's a terrible second favourite at just 12/1 - ok, he may hang in close enough and descend like a lunatic to maybe catch the leaders, but I can't see him winning.. Rui Costa and Daniel Navarro are both 14/1 and both have looked lively, but without really setting the pulses racing too much, if they can hang in close and attack again on the run in they could both go close. It's will they be able to stay close is the question..

Fabio Felline and Simon Gerrans are both 16/1, but will they really be able to hang in there close enough in order to get back on for the sprint? I don't think so. Tim Wellens is a puzzler at 16/1 though, it's really too short, but if he does get in the break of the day he'd have a chance on that finish. 16/1 is far too short to take that gamble though. Simon Yates flew up this climb last year, attacking away from the likes of Quintana and Rodriguez, and he looked lively today again. Can he attack and get away again this year? What we might see is the likes of Henao, Yates, Landa get away together and if they can work together they could stay away.

Two others that I like a little are Alexis Vuillermoz and Luis Leon Sanchez. Vuillermoz finished 10th here last year with a very strong finish, pulling away from Spilak, Quintana, Izagirre and Pinot. He went ok on stage 2 to finish ahead of Moreno, Martin and the two Yates brothers, but I think he could be involved in the front push here tomorrow and could have a chance of getting away with a small group. Luis Leon didn't go great here last year, but he seems to be riding at a far higher level this year so far and has already claimed a good stage win. He could stay close tomorrow to the front and is capable of a super-fast descent to maybe tag back on to the leaders.. he's then capable of attacking again on the final little hill and soloing to victory. At 40/1 he's worth a small interest.

Gio Visconti, Tony Gallopin, Dario Cataldo - they could all go well too, but I'm leaving Dan Martin, he lost 6 minutes today, with rumours that he is sick again. Diegeo Ulissi would be a big danger if he can hang in there over the final ascent to Aia, but I'm not sure he will.

It's almost another day for a 'no-bet' with the complicated scenarios that will unfold before us making it almost impossible to predict. But let's have a go with small stakes on some breakaway hopefuls and on Vuillermoz and Sanchez for late moves. 

Update: 11.20am - Have added Pello Bilbao of Caja Rural as Caja Rural have just tweeted this quote from him: "Today is probably my last chance to win a stage in this Itzulia. I know these roads well. Im ready!" - worth a shot with that snippet.

 

Recommendations:

0.2pts win on Luis Angel Mate at 200/1

0.2pts win on Angel Madrazo at 200/1

0.2pts win on Igor Anton at 100/1

0.2pts win on Nicholas Edet at 250/1 

0.2pts win on Pieter Serry at 200/1

0.4pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 40/1

0.4pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 40/1 - all with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Pello Bilbao at 33/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets:

Vuillermoz to beat Kelderman - 2.4pts at 11/10

Costa to beat Barguil and Navarro to beat Rolland - 1.5pts at 6/4

Gesink to beat Reichanbach - 3pts at 5/6

 

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Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Orio to Arrate (Aibar)

Friday, April 8th, 159km  

 

I don't think many would have picked Sammy Sanchez for a win in any race, let alone a hard stage like today, but win it he did with an audacious attack at the top of the final climb and a trade-mark Sanchez descent to the finish. Well someone knew something or someone really fancied him though as he was the 14/1 second favourite for the stage. Alexis Vuillermoz came very, very close to a podium place for us when finishing 4th, just behind Warren Barguil. Luis Angel Mate came pretty close also for us at 200/1, he was caught along with Verona and Wellens with just 2,300m to go.

It was a great day on the matchbets though, landing a full house at pretty good odds, two of the bets winning by just one place! Costa just beat Barguil (that was a hell of a lot closer than I expected) and Gesink beat Reichenbach by one place, Vuillermoz beat Kelderman by four places, but Navarro beat Rolland by a far more comfortable margin, Rolland was 2'36" behind him. It meant a 5.7pt profit to keep the week ticking over nicely. 

The Queen stage of the race is being held on a Friday this year, compared to Thursday in previous years. And what a nasty stage they have in store for the riders on the day before the final TT - 159kms, 9 climbs, including six Cat 2 climbs and a Cat 1 climb to finish the stage. They cross the Izua for the second time this week with 36kms to go, then the San Migel with 21kms to go. The final climb to Usartza is a Cat 1, averaging 8.2% for 5.4kms, but the road does peak out with less than 2kms to go and the last run to the line is downhill. It's likely we will have a solo rider or a very small group at least coming to the finish and it could come down to who gets through the final two bends inside the last 150m in front. 

What have we seen so far with regards to the favourites chances for the Queen stage? Contador has put in a few digs, but he hasn't impressed me much as Shania Twain might say. He attacked again today at the finale but Sanchez and the rest easily stayed with him, and when Sanchez attacked, Bertie was not able to respond and Sanchez sailed away to victory.Quintana has looked pretty average and hasn't done anything special, but he still sits just 14" back from the new leader Kelderman. But it could all have been shadow boxing and hiding away until this main event and this is the terrain where these guys really come alive. 

There's a difference of opinion between PP who have Contador at 9/2 and Henao at 6/1 and 365 who have Henao at 7/2 and Contador at 11/2. Interestingly they both have Sammy Sanchez next in the betting around 7/1, followed by Nairo Quintana, not often you see that order for a big mountain stage. Quick synopsis: Contador will be right up there but I don't think he is 100% at the moment and will struggle to win this stage I think. The climb isn't hard enough for him to drop everyone and with a downhill run to the line, he could find himself in a small group that sprints it out, he won't win that sprint. Quintana hasn't shown me anything that suggests he will ride away from everyone, but he did something similar in Catalunya and rode away from them all. I'm not sure he'll shake them all off tomorrow and won't win a downhill sprint to the line. 

Sergio Henao has looked the strongest of the climbers I think and I expect a big performance from him tomorrow. I think he will be able to stay with anything AC and NQ throw at him and might even accelerate away from them in the last kilometre or two of the climb itself and go for victory. He has a small lead in the GC on them but needs to put more time in to them, and especially in to Kelderman ahead of the TT, so he has to go on the offensive. I think we could see him win tomorrow and put himself in to the leader's jersey ahead of the final TT. 

Sammy Sanchez looked great today and I was delighted to see him win, his first win in something like 1,300 days! I got that completely wrong when I said he wouldn't win today, and I may be tempting faith here again, but I think it's a big ask for him to win two days running, especially on such a hard stage like this one. If he has managed to hang in there with the leaders though as they start the downhill run for the last 2kms, he has a chance of staging another late attack. But I think it's going to be hard for him to stay with Contador and Henao when they start going full gas. 

Rodriguez still hasn't shown me that he is going good enough to win this stage though, a Rodriguez of old would have been right up there fighting it out on a hill like that with Sanchez and Contador. One I liked the look of today though was Rui Costa - he was very prominent throughout the key points of the stage and on the final climb was right up there with Contador, but like Contador, he hesitated and Sanchez slipped away. It was to prove costly though as he produced a strong sprint at the finish to overhaul Barguil and thus would have won the stage. I liked how strong he was on that final stretch, as if he can hang in there tomorrow over the top of the climb he would be fancied to win a sprint against the other climbers. He was 15/1 with PP and I took some of that. 

I'm sure Pinot will have his backers at 15/1, he seemed to be going ok today and was quite aggressive, attacking with Aru off the top of the penultimate climb. I'm not interested though, I'm not sure he'll be winning this one. Wilco Kelderman is 25/1 to continue his fine week and land a stage, but I agree with that price, I can't see him being let go on the attack and I can't see him staying with the really small guys when they go for it. 

Simon Spilak and Mikel Landa are two who could be anything again tomorrow, but Landa was really hanging on today and was almost left behind on the final climb, I think he might be put to work for Henao now that he has lost the leader's jersey again. Dan Martin lost another 13 minutes today, I'm not touching him. Alexis Vuillermoz continues to impress and landed another matchbet for me again today. He was right up there fighting it out with Costa, Contador, Quintana and co. on the final climb and almost sprinted to a fine 3rd place for us. I'm not sure how he'll go on the longer climb like this, but I think I might leave him for tomorrow. Warren Barguil was impressive today too, just being pipped on the line for 2nd place by Costa. He could be top 10 again tomorrow but not sure he'll make top 3. 

One rider I have been impressed a lot by lately is Louis Vervaeke, the 22 year old Belgian has been climbing really well and finished in 17th today with the GC favourites. He might try something tomorrow and might just slip the net as Henao, Quintana, Contador and the rest look at each other. At 66/1 he's worth a nibble. Bauke Mollema, Robert Gesink and Daniel Navarro all could go well, as could Stefan Reichenbach, who if he can hang in there with the leaders on tomorrow's stage, could have a chance of a top podium placing with the TT the next day. He was 300/1 with PP for the overall and they were offering e/w betting so I had a nibble in case he pulls off a massive ride tomorrow and really puts himself in contention. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Sergio Henao at 6/1 with PP

2pts win on Henao for the GC at 5/2 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Rui Costa at 15/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Louis Vervaeke at 66/1 with 365 or PP 

 

Matchbets

Pinot to beat Rodriguez - 2pts at 5/4

Costa to beat Kelderman - 1.8pts at 5/6 

 

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Stage 6 

Stage 6 - Eibar to Eibar

Saturday, April 9th, 16.5kms

I think I called that one pretty well today, but was denied again by Diego Rosa. Three times this week I have had riders come very close but land the each-way money, as Rosa denied us a nice win for Henao. I was right to leave Quintana, he looked lethargic and flat again today and couldn't respond to Contador. And when it came to the finish, Contador was indeed outsprinted by Henao. Costa wasn't far off in 9th, but it was good enough to win the matchbet with Kelderman who struggled today and slipped down the GC to 8th from 1st. Pinot did all he could to shake off Rodriguez, but unfortunately today was the day to lose a match bet by one place after two wins yesterday.

It leaves our man Henao in the lead going in to the final TT, but by just 6" from Contador and 10" from Pinot and Rodriguez just 12" down. It looks like it's between the 4 of them, but Wilco Kelderman and Reichenbach are just over a minute down and if they have a REALLY good day they could move right up the leaderboard again. Diego Rosa's ride today was superb though, going from a long, long way out on his own, leaving the break of 24 behind and soloing to victory. And was a superb victory salute he gave, if you haven't seen it try to check it out, he dismounted before crossing the line, lifted his bike over his head and walked across the line! 

Like last year, the final stage of the race is an individual time trial. However, it's quite differant from the time trial last year. Firstly it's 2 kilometers shorter, but secondly the profile of the race is very different. In 2015 they spent the first 9 kilometers of the stage decending before spending most of the second part of the stage climbing, including the hard pull up to the finish in Aia. It was a hard finish that saw the strong climbers come to the fore, highlighted by a stage win by none other than Joaquim Rodriquez, not exactly a notted time trialist.

This year the stage has a very differant profile with a climb coming after around 2 kilometers, and what a nasty climb it is that they face. They rise 500m in 5.5kms, making it an average of nearly 10%. There are some really steep parts towards the middle of the climb, hitting 15-20% in parts, but it eases off towards the top to 2-3%. Once over the top it's a very tricky and technical descent to the last 3.5kms and a relatively flat run to the line. On the way down they pass the finish line from today's stage and there's a little kick up with 13kms gone, but it's mostly downhill to flat for the rest of the stage. 

The question though for a lot of the riders before this TT is whether to start on a road bike for the climbing (lighter and more comfortable) and switch to a TT bike at the top, or opt to stay on a road bike with tri-bars attached. The time lost in the change (around 5-10"), will they make it up and more in the last half of the course?

The GC battle looks like it's between four men, but the stage is wide open I think. The bookies don't think so though and have Contador the clear favourite at just 15/8 now with PP (opened 2/1 or maybe bigger), but he's as short as 6/4 with Bet365. Contador is going for the GC and will be absolutely going all out to win it, so it sure to post a very good time. But will it be good enough to win the stage? It might well be, but I'm not sure I want to be backing him at that price. He isn't a bad TTer at all of course, and his 3rd place in the hilly TT in the Giro last year behind Kiryienka and LL Sanchez was pretty good. In the Ruta del Sol TT last year he was 4th, just 4" behind Kelderman but ahead of the likes of Jungels, Froome and Kiryienka. That sort of form line should see him right towards the top of the leaderboard at the end of the day. 

Sergio Henao will be the last man on the road and will know what he needs to do. He'll have all the time gaps and all the feedback from his team-mates times as to how to guage his effort. 2nd favourite at 6/1 with PP, he'll have to pull off the ride of his life to hold off Contador and land the overall victory. 4th in this TT last year on the other course at Aia, he comfortably beat the likes of Tony Martin and Kwiatkowski with a fine ride. He is riding extremely well and has looked stronger than Contador to me, it's whether he can convert that to a time trial and pull off a massive ride to secure the overall win. I think he'll go very close to doing so, whether he wins the stage is another question..

Thibaut Pinot is 3rd favourite for the TT, and the way the FDJ riders are flying on their new Lapierre bikes and with their new-found abilities and belief, you wouldn't put it past him to pull off a sensational win and even take the GC. But I think he's not quite at 100% yet, he was dropped rather easily by Henao and Contador today, but battled back to almost catch them at the death. He will like the climbing and it looks like he has gotten over his fear of descending too as he seems to be descending well this week. Ranges from 6/1 to 8/1 but I'm not all that keen to back him

After that, it's really wide open.. really! It could be any one of about 20 guys who could pull off a big ride, get lucky with the weather etc. Wilko Kelderman is still fighting for a top 5 placing and will like a course like this. He struggled today though and his confidence will have taken a bit of a dent after that, and I'm not sure we can trust him at just 10-13/1.

Simon Spilak could pull off a big ride, but he's been a disappointment for me this week, he doesn't look like he's going 100% at the moment. JRod rode brilliantly in the TT last year to finish 2nd and take the overall prize, and he seems to be getting stronger as this week goes on. I'm not sure this year's stage suits him as much as last year's, but he should go well. Rui Costa will be 5th to 10th as will Quintana and maybe Jesus Herrada. Diego Rosa finished 4th in the hilly TT in the Valenciana race, but after riding over 100kms solo today, I'm not sure he'll be able to repeat that sort of performance again tomorrow. 

Two that did interest me though at biggish prices are Luis Leon Sanchez at 40/1 and Fabio Felline who opened at 50/1. Luis Leon we know is a good time triallist (former Spanish champion) and we know he's going well after his fine stage win this week. He seems to have taken it easy since winning though, maybe he's saving it for one last effort in the TT? 2nd in the hilly TT in Valenciana, just 15" behind Poels. At 40/1 he's worth an each-way stab I think.

Felline has been riding very well this week and has been climbing well to keep him in contention for the sprints. 6th in this stage last year, ahead of Quintana, winner of the TT in the Criterium International last year over 7kms, he can pull off a big ride from time to time. He's now 25/1 with Bet365, and that might be worth a small go too.

Steve Cummings interested me a little too at 33/1, I know he's been doing very expensive secret wind tunnell testing this winter and it has already paid some dividends with his two late attacks for stage wins this season. I think it might be a bit too hard for him on the way up but he is sure to fly down the other side. Sebastian Reichanbach could go well too, he's been riding very strongly this week and has a good TT on him.

Contador and Henao may well battle it out for the stage win and the GC, but at the prices I'm not that interested in case one of them has a bad day. Naturally I'll be cheering for Henao for the GC, but at big prices, I'll be cheering Sanchez and Felline home too.  

Recommendations   

0.5pts each-way on Fabio Felline at 50/1 with PP (take the 25/1 with 365)

0.3pts each-way on Luis Leon Sanchez at 40/1 with PP 

 

Matchbets 

Cummings to beat Cataldo and Landa to beat Vervaeke - 2pts on the double at 6/4 with Bet365 

Reichenbach to beat Craddock - 2pts at evens

Rodriguez to beat Quintana - 3pts at 8/11

 

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