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Published on Friday, 25 March 2016 00:55

E3 Harelbeke

Friday 25th March, 206.4kms

The E3 Harelbeke takes place Friday and is the next installment in the run of cobbled classics in Northern Europe, with Gent Wevelgem coming up on Sunday and the daddy of the Belgian Classics, the Ronde Van Vlaanderenon April 3rd.   

Geraint Thomas was a brilliant winner of this in 2015, blowing the race to pieces with a devastating attack on the Oude Kwaremont, where only Stybar could stay with him. When Peter Sagan was the only rider to bridge to them, the three strongest riders in the race held the chasing pack at bay until Geraint Thomas, who had looked the strongest all day, attacked cleverly on the right of Sagan with just 4.3kms to go. Sagan was cooked and as Stybar was last wheel he waited for Sagan to go in pursuit, something Sagan was physically not able to do. That momentary hesitation meant Stybar lost his chance of catching Thomas, as the pursuitist was disappearing up the road. 

The E3 Harelbeke has been going since 1958 and it was named after the old E3 motoroway, which strangely is now known as the A14, but the race keeps the name. It is a fantastic preparation for the Tour of Flanders as it is over a vast majority of the same terrain and cobbled climbs of the Ronde, including the Paterberg and the Oude Kwaremont.

The race starts in Harelbeke's Grote Markt and travels east with a pretty flat opening 90 km, but hit the first cobbles around Oudenaarde and Zottegem with La Houpe after 92kms the first serious hill of the race. They reach the most easterly point just west of Ninove and after turning west and going through Geraardsbergen and Brakel it starts to get tougher with a succession of short, sharp climbs, some of which are cobbled, as the race loops between Ronse and Oudenaarde.

Fabian Cancellara was a brilliant winner in 2013, simply riding off the front of a quality leading group with 35kms to go at the top of the Kwaremont, similar to how Thomas rode away from them all with Stybar last year. Sagan has been 2nd in 2013, 1st in 2014 and should have been 3rd in 2015 but he tied up so badly in the last 4kms he was caught and passed by the chasers and ended up in 30th place!

2013 was Cancellara's 3rd win in the race following his victories in 2010 and 2011 - he's back and in good form to try to make it four wins, to put him second highest in the winners list with Rik Van Looy. Sandwiched between his wins in 2012 was a win for Tom Boonen, who took his record 5th win in the race, following his victories in 2004-07. 2009 winner Pippo Pozzato also features in the quality line-up again this year, fresh from an excellent 4th place in DVV. The cream of the Flanders Classics favourites are here to get a final preparation in to the legs. 

The Route

The race is an out and back loop that heads out east and then comes back west to start the criss-crossing of the hellingen around Oudenarde and Ronse after around 120kms. It is the combination of the winds, climbs and cobbles that causes the race to fracture all ove the countryside over the last 100kms. 

There's a new hill added to the route this year after just 28,9kms, the Katteberg, but it shouldn't have any bearing on the outcome except maybe to help some attackers try to get away. There are then fourteen more Hellingen to get over in the 94kms between La Houpe after 92kms and the Tiegemberg which comes with just 20kms exactly to go. The full order of the hills is on the right, but it's when they hit the Taiaenberg with 130km gone that things really start to heat up - the 9.5% average over the 1250m usuall causes the first real significant splits in any race that goes over it. 

The next 5 Hellingen will see some more pressure being put on at the front and the peloton will be wittled down hill by hill. But it's when they hit the Paterberg and the Kwaremont within 5kms of each other that the final selection will probably be made, a reverse order to what they do in the Ronde, when the Kwaremont comes first.

The Paterberg may only be 500m but it averages 12.5% while the Oude Kwaremont is cobbled for 1500m of its 2200m although its gradient averages 4.2%. You reach the top of the Kwaremont near the cafe where the Kwaremont beer Gantry is but the hill keeps going for quite a way after that and the cobbles are particularly rough in the last 500m. It's sometimes the case that the real gaps are made in this section as some riders are on the limit after the pitch up to the cafe and the stronger men press on over the rough last 500m. 

There is one final Hellingen to get over with 20kms to go at the Tiegemberg, a 1km stretch at 6.5%, so if there is a select group up the road, this could be the last chance to try to get away solo. From there it is a relatively straight and flat run in to the finish in Harelbeke with the finish outside the E3 stadium. 

Contenders and Favourites

This is a top-quality field that lines up again this year, with all the main Classics riders taking to the startline for a race that although lacks the 'Monument' title of the Ronde, is still one of the most prestigious races of the spring campaign.

One key rider missing from the lineup though is last year's champion Geraint Thomas, who is busy in Catalunya this week. The number one bib though goes to Peter Sagan, as winner in 2014, and he's here to try to make amends for not only blowing up and losing a podium place last year, but also to try to make up for the disappointment of Milan San Remo when Gaviria's crash with 500m to go almost took him out and he lost all chance of the win. I don't think he'd have won it in the end though, but he did finish fast to take 12th place. Yet to win a race in the World Champ stripes after a bundle of top 10 places, could this be the day that he finally gets his nose in front? He likes it around the Kwaremont/Paterberg area and you would expect him to be right there at the front again should splits come on this important section of the course. Whether he can finish it off or not is another question..

Fabian Cancellara has a great record in this race, his extreme power is a huge advantage when trying to accelerate away from a tired bunch. Winner of the Tour of Flanders also over these roads, he knows every nook and cranny of the course and the climbs and will be well positioned you can be sure for all the key moments of the race.  He is a worthy favourite at 9/2 I think, he is sure to be be involved in the main selections of the race and could well ride away from them all like in his heyday. I worry though that on a relatively good day weather wise the race mightn't be selective enough and a sprinter type or two comes to the finish with him and beats him. 

Greg Van Avermaet has gone off the boil a little as I pointed out ahead of the DDV, he finished down the field in that one during the week.. It may be time to start picking it up again, but I worry that he rides within himself in this race and goes full gas on Sunday in Ghent Wevelgem in preparation for RVV on Sunday week. 

Peter Sagan has a massive chance again of a result here I think, he needs to play it a bit smarter though and let others do the work a bit more and save his energy for one killer attack, not waste it on numerous stupid peacock-posing efforts. I think the 11/2 with Skybet paying four places is a decent bet, he could well be in a small group of 2 or 3 that contest the stage win like last year, or if there is a solo rider or two he should possibly be one of the next best home. 

Niki Terpstra, Sep Vanmarcke, Tiesj Benoot and Zdenek Stybar - four riders around the same price and similar in stature, style and possibilities in this race. Benoot is going superbly well but disappointed a litte in DVV, Vanmarcke has looked strong at times but then disappears when the big moves came. Terpstra and Stybar are bound to screw up a winning opportunity for Etixx. 

I think it won't be so selective this year and we could have a group of around 30-40 riders come to the finish, a little like in DVV. If that is the case, then Alexander Kristoff is sure to have a big chance, he is a former winner of the Ronde after all. He looks huge at 9/1 but I'm not sure he's 100% at the moment though and I have been taking him on in recent weeks which has been worth doing.

I think though another rider at over 5 times his price who could be here at the finish and could well take another big win is Arnaud Démare. He has done ok on the cobble roads in the past (2nd in Ghent Wevelgem two years ago) and was going well in the Omloop last year when he punctured out of the leading group. I think he will be fired up to prove his doubters and critics wrong after Cipressa-gate and he should be full of confidence too following his Monument win. With Ladagnous, Le Bon and Delage he has some strong, experienced help too. And as he proved in MSR, he can do it at the finish without any help too. 50/1 with ladbrokes was worth a nibble. 

Luke Rowe at 80/1 with betfair looks a decent bet, he has been riding very strong lately, and will be looking to get in some good practice ahead of Paris-Roubaix. Ian Stannard might also go on the offensive but he doesn't seem in his best shape to me. Bryan Coquard will be desperate to make up for his Coq-up on Wednesday in DVV when he threw away victory by celebrating too early, but I'm not sure this race is as suited to him as say GW on Sunday. Scott Thwaites is being backed, but can't see him winning this, he was trying in DVV but not really going anywhere and was never going to win that sprint. I can't see him getting away with an elite group if a small group with the likes of Sagan and Cancellara go, and he won't win a bunch sprint either. Michal Kwiatkowski could be a dark horse here at 33/1, as could Marco Marcato at a big price of 150/1.

A shortish preview it has had to be in terms of going through all the hopefuls, but I am supposed to be on a family weekend away and am doing this in the dark, really quite late at night! Looking like I'll be unable to do a Ghent Wevelgem preview for Sunday, but will try to name some I like when the odds come out. 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Peter Sagan at 11/2 with Skybet paying four places. 

0.5pts each-way on Arnaud Démare at 50/1 with Ladbrokes

0.3pts each-way on Luke Rowe at 80/1 with Betfair.

Matchbets

Kwiatkowski to beat Boom and Demare to beat Haussler - 2pts on the double at 6/4 with Bet365

Gatto to beat Oss - 3pts at 8/11

Sagan to beat Kristoff - 3pts at 4/6