Stage 2 

 

Stage 2 - Palomares del Río to Córdoba  

Thursday, February 18th, 186.3kms

A chaotic end to today's stage saw Daniele Bennati take the stage win for Tinkoff, a win they probably deserved based on the fact that they seemed to want it more and did more work at the right time in the closing kilometres. It looked for a while like the long-range break of the day might actually make it, as their lead hovered over a minute with less than 10kms to go, but South-East and Tinkoff took it up and they made the catch with just over 2kms to go.

Cofidis were pathetic, they were way too far back with 3kms to go, they surged up the side of the peloton with about 1.5kms to go and then disappeared, with Soupe and Bouhanni stranded about 15 riders back. They just weren't able to deal with the narrow, twisting finish to the stage, when they went through a few roundabouts and tight bends near the finish, Bennati was in a perfect position and led from the front off the last bend. Bouhanni should be lapping these sprints up, but he was well beaten, another short-priced favourite biting the dust this season. 

Sbaragli was disappointing - while EBH was winning in Oman, the Dimension Data boys that are here let the side down and Sbaragli never got in to the sprint, finishing in 16th. Swift was out of the top 10 again, in 11th place, Lobato did land a podium for his e/w backers, as did Van Lerberghe, although I doubt he had any backers, the young Topsport man wasn't even listed I would think. No dramas re. the overall GC, even though they were strung out over about 500m coming to the finish they were all given the same time. 

A long, flat opening 150kms to this race as they head north-east towards Cordoba. But just as they are about to enter the city they take a sharp left turn and head up in to the mountains to the north-west of the city on that wall-like obstruction you see on the profile below. The road hits some switchbacks and winds its way to the top of the Cat 3 Alto de Trassiera, a 5km climb averaging around 8%. The summit comes with just 22kms to go but is followed by a tricky run of false flats and another peak and with just 16km to go they start the dangerous descent down to Cordoba. There is not a lot of flat road on the run to the finish, it descends more or less all the way to the line. 

It's the sort of finish that will suit opportunistic late attackers who are not afraid to descend at high speeds and take a few risks - the kind of stage that would be perfect for the likes of Nibali or Sagan if they were here. One thing though to bear in mind is that it's not like it comes at the end of a really hard day in the mountains, it will have been pretty easy up until about 28kms to go so we could see more guys involved at the top of the climb that might normally be the case with a tough climb at the end of a stage. 

So this is going to be an interesting stage - the break of the day *could* make it all the way if they can start the descent with 60" or so of a lead, they'll be hard to pin back on the charge to the line. Especially if the chasers leave it so late like today, and if their chase is as disorganised as today. 

The chances are though that the break will be reeled in either before the final climb of the day or on it - it's 5kms long and that will feel like 50 to a break that will have been out on their own for 140kms or so at this point in the season. There's two scenarios that can happen here I think, either the likes of Movistar look to hammer it up the climb and drop all the sprinters so they can set up Lobato or Valverde if Lobato doesn't make it, or scenario 2 - we get a solo attack or small group go away near the top or on the descent and fight out the finish. 

Looking at scenario one, I think there's a fair chance that Movistar will try this - removing Bennati and Van Lerberghe from the sprint would have seen Lobato take the sprint today. Movistar came to the front with menace in the last kilometre, only Lobato was not able to take the last few bends as well as Bennati so lost out. On a finish like this one which has got a slightly less technical finish, you'd have to fancy him to take the sprint of a select group. If it is raced really hard and he's not there, Valverde is a good back-up, but I think he may be outgunned by one or two like he was in Murcia.

Sky have Poels, Roche or Kiryienka who could try something on the climb/descent but I think they will be keeping thier powder dry ahead of the bigger challenges later in the week.Tinkoff rode well today and the mood in the camp will be bouyant after Bennati's stage win. I don't think he'll make it to the finish with the leaders tomorrow though so they may look to others on the team to have a go. Oscar Gatto could be their man - he won a stage in the Sibiu Tour of Romania last year that was a 215km stage with a tough 'Cat A' climb that rose to 864m with just 45km to go in a similar profile to this stage. He also won stages in the Tour of Austria the year before that with tough profiles so he is well able to cope with a route like this I think. He also finished 4th in the sprint today behind his team-mate Bennati so he clearly has good legs at the moment. 

Fabio Felline has been made the 5/1 2nd favourite by Bet365, the only bookie it seems offering odds for tomorrow's stage, which is disappointing again. Felline can go well on a course like this, has some good results on tough, hilly races, such as the Pais Vasco stage he won last year or 2nd places in the stage of the Giro behind Matthews.. but 5/1? No thanks. 

I said above that another part of scenario one was that Movistar could set up Valverde.. he is 4/1 favourite for the stage and he should have a big chance but 4/1 is a bit short for me too.. Ben Swift - 10/1? No chance. Philippe Gilbert is another who has a big chance here, along with Movistar, BMC look like the kind of team who can control this stage to set up Gilbert, and he is one that could seize an opportunity to attack on the descent or could just wait for the sprint. Based on how he won in Murcia, beating Valverde in the sprint, I'd rather be on Gilbert at twice Valverde's price.

Enrico Battaglin rode well in Australia, taking 10th on the hill up to Stirling and 10th on the stage to Victor Harbor after Corkscrew Hill, then took 9th in the hilly Cadel Evans Road Race. He hasn't achieved a podium since May 2014, when he won the uphill stage to Oropa in the Giro, ahead of Cataldo and Pantano. With that low hit rate I'm reluctant to back him at just 12/1. Nacer Bouhanni - 16/1? No way.. he won't even be there at the finish. Sylvain Chavanel rode well in Etoile de Besseges to win a stage, and he could be one for scenario 2 I mentioned above, a late attack on the climb or on the descent. Simon Geschke at 50/1, Tim Wellens at 50/1 and Damiano Caruso at 50/1 are others who could try the late moves. 

I'm not sure the climb is hard enough to blow the race to pieces and we only have the GC favourites fighting out the finish, even if they get a small gap, chasing groups could come together again on the false flat part or on the descent. If it is an elite group though, Valverde probably wins, but Bauke Mollema could also come in to the equation. 

One rider I almost forgot about was Carlos Barbero - I have backed him a few times already this year and was unlucky with him in GP Marseillaise.. The Caja Rural man likes it when it's a bit hillier than an out and out flat sprint stage so this could be more his kind of day. He looks very big at 66/1 to possibly cause a surprise.

I think though we are likely to get a reduced group of maybe 40 riders come to the finish together and I expect BMC to be well represented in there. They should be able to set up Gilbert for a shot at victory here and I think the 8/1 is a decent price. I also like the look of Oscar Gatto at 25/1 to make it two good days in a row for Tinkoff. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Philippe Gilbert at 8/1 with Bet365

0.3pts each-way on Oscar Gatto at 25/1 with Bet365 (now 33/1)

0.25pts each-way on Carlos Barbero at 66/1 with Bet365 

 

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Stage 3 

 

Stage 3 - Monachil to Padul   (157.9k)

Friday February 19th, 172kms

A shock result today with Nacer Bouhanni surprising everyone and getting in to the lead group and easily winning the sprint. How did he manage to get over that climb close enough to the front of the race to enable him to get up for the sprint? Well, Simon Geschke may have given us a clue how he managed it::

Not a fan of sprinters that get pushed up the last climb by teammates and then win the stage.

— Simon Geschke (@simongeschke) February 18, 2016

 

There's no doubt there that he reckoned Bouhanni cheated his way to victory and if that was the case he should be thrown out. I'm sure the Felline backers are pretty livid if he was pushed over the hill to keep him in the race, Felline took 2nd behind him. Ben Swift took advantage of some pretty awful sprinting from anyone other than Bouhanni to nip up for 3rd, but if Laporte of Cofidis hadn't sat up celebrating Bouhanni's win then Swift could have missed out on a top three placing again.

There was finally some action on the stage in the last 25kms, as first Siutsou tried his look and then a small chase group with most of the main favourites and the likes of Gilbert and Bookwalter got clear and looked like the 15 or so of them would fight out the finish, with Gilbert in a great position. But with about 4kms to go a bigger group came up from behind, including race leader Daniele Bennati and Bouhanni.The narrow roads and so little time to get organised saw a messy finish and Gilbert got lost as did Lobato, much to the annoyance of Valverde who made a big deal of the fact he did a leadout with no Lobato on his wheel.  

On first glance, this looks a relatively flat day with some rolling hills, but there are four categorised climbs on this route and not a lot of flat road all day - they climb a total of 1369m on the day. They start high at 800m in Granada and wind their way in an anti-clockwise loop that takes them through the finish town of Padul after 115kms but then they go out on another loop this time in a clock-wise direction to the south-east of the finish town. They dip down to 500m to the village of Restábal close to the shores of the Embalse de Beznar lake and then start climbing again for the final Cat 3 climb of the day which averages around 4% over 8kms, but that gradient is deceptive, there's a 2km downhill stretch in the middle. Once at the top it's a relatively flat run for the last 15kms back to Padul with a slight rise up to the finish line. 

It looks like a day that a strong breakaway candidate could make it, it will be difficult for teams to control it on this sort of terrain. The finish could suit the likes of Gilbert and Valverde though so we might see a big effort from BMC and Movistar in the closing stages to reel in the breakaway and set them up for the sprint - I thought they might be able to shake off the likes of Bouhanni on the final Cat 3 climb, but after today maybe not, he might get another push or two to get over it. 

Bet365 are the only book with prices and they have Felline favourite at 10/3, and probably deservedly is favourite - he was unlucky today that Bouhanni had got back on, he had make the initial elite selection and would have won the stage from that group. Valverde is 5/1 and I am not interested, I'm not sure Valverde is going so well still, he did that 'leadout' today for Lobato but then jacked it in when well beaten with 100m to go, making lots of gestures like he was looking for Lobato.. if he had the legs he'd have been closer and would have kept sprinting I think.

Do we give Gilbert another go? Maybe.. It was a bit worrying that he didn't even contest the sprint though on yesterday's stage. Ben Swift got closer but couldn't beat Felline, can't see him turning the tables on him tomorrow. Lobato got lost today in the sprint as I said above, he's likely to do the same today.. Bouhanni is 10/1, Bet365 aren't taking any chances that he can pull it off again. Wellens has been supported and is in to 9/1, he looked active today and could attack near the finish tomorrow. Same goes for Chavanel at 17/1.

One rider though that caught my eye was Raymond Kreder at 40/1.. The Dutchman riding for Roompot finished 8th on stage 1 and 5th on stage 2, He also took a 3rd on stage 5 in Valencia, beating Bouhanni and also took a 5th on stage 3. He won a stage in the Tour de L'ain in 2014 on a lumpy day a bit like this and had a host of top ten placings last year, including 6th on a stage of the Tour of the Algarve one year ago yesterday on another day with a few hills towards the end. He might hang in there and at 40/1 he's worth a go. 

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Raymond Kreder at 40/1 with Bet365 

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Stage 4 

 

Stage 4 - Alhaurín de la Torre to Alhaurín de la Torre   

Saturday February 20th, 24kms

 

It's a funny old game eh. It turns out the reason Oscar Gatto finished 6 minutes down yesterday was because he punctured on the run in and dropped out of contention. Instead he only goes and wins today's stage when I wasn't on. I was not a happy boy when I saw that of course, but the disappointment was tempered a little bit by the fact that my man Ray Kreder popped up with 50m to go and lunged over the line to pip Wellens by millimetres to take 3rd for me at 40/1. I'm glad I didn't get involved with anyone else,

Lobato disappeared again, was not even in the leading group, Gilbert was 7th in the sprint, Swift still can't win a sprint of this manner and short-priced favourite Felline didn't even make the podium and Wellens, the gamble missed out my millimeters. Still all to play for though, no changes or surprises to the GC, except that Ben Swift takes over the leader's jersey.

The first of the two key stages in the race, this time trial over 21kms is sure to separate the hopefuls from the also-rans.. If you want to win this race you cannot afford to have a bad day here as you could lose 30" or more to your rivals going in to the final Queen stage. The profile looks relatively flat but is quite technical and lumpy for the first 11kms with two ascents, one relatively steep after just 5kms and another a bit more gentle after 9kms, pulling up to the intermedate check point at the 11km mark. 

From there the road is a lot flatter until they hit the 3km to go mark, where the road starts to gently rise upwards and gets gradually harder as it gets closer to the finish. It will be a tricky TT to gauge your effort on as it is tough and technical to start with and the temptation will be to push it hard, but then theres the 7km section of flat where you'll need to keep the power down, but also save something in the tank for the last few kilometres uphill to the line. 

This is a big early season test for Tejay Van Garderen, as he needs to start establishing himself as number one in the BMC team, especially in light of Richie Porte's poor showing in Oman. He changed his programme this year and didn't go back to Oman despite finishing second last year, instead he has started his season in Europe with Murcia, Almeria and Andalucia. He looks to be in good shape, having made the move in Murcia and helping set up Gilbert, finishing 7th himself, and in Thursday's finale he was in the front selection that formed after the climb also.

His time trialling can be hit and miss and it's very early in the season to know exactly how he'll go, but I think he should do ok on this sort of course. He finished 20th in the Tour prologue last year over 13.8kms, ahead of the likes of Nibali, but 5" behind one of his rivals here, Bauke Mollema and 12" behind Wilko Kelderman. He may well need to keep them at those kind of distances at most going in to the queen stage as both can climb pretty well usually. He tends to do better over longer distance TTs, this one is in between short like a prologue and overly long like the 54kms in the TDF last year when he was 6th. He is 9/1 which is tempting for an each-way bet, but I think he could be 5th to 10th. 

Vasil Kiryienka is the reigning World Time Trial champion after he blitzed his way to gold in Richmond last year. He has been working his socks off all week in the services of Poels taking incredibly long pulls at the front of the peloton, helping to pull in the likes of Fraile and Navarro today who had healthy looking leads with just 10kms to go. Ordinarily he'd probably be top of my list here but the fact he has put so much work in, and will be expected to do the same on the Queen stage on Sunday means I am reluctant to back him at just 2/1. Poels will need all his help on Sunday to control things on that final climb and I wouldn't be surprised if he was asked to shelve his TT ambitions to save energy. At the same time, it's only 21kms so he could well go out and blast it in order to set some targets for Poels who is going off later in the stage.

Jerome Coppel could be his biggest rival here, he finished 3rd in the World's ITT championships last year, beating the likes of Dumoulin, Dennis and Martin with a sensational ride. He has improved his time trialling in recent years and has started this season well too, winning the ITT in the Etoile de Besseges over 12kms. Notably in that TT the last 3kms were uphill at an average of 4.5%, quite similar to the finish here. He should be right up there I think in the top 3 and has a good chance of winning it on a course that will suit - I'm hoping he puts in a big ride as I am on him for the overall and he could do with a decent buffer on the climbers ahead of the Queen stage where I'm worried he might struggle a little. He opened at 3/1 with Bet365 but went out to 4/1 as money has come for Poels, it's probably a bet to nothing now he's surely going to be in the top 3

Money has come for Poels this evening too, he has been backed in to 5/2 from 4/1. He too has started the season really well, winning in Valenciana thanks to a storming ride in the TT over 16.2kms on a lumpy course. He won that day by 15" from LL Sanchez, and 21" from his team-mate Kiryienka and that sort of performance is probably why he's being backed tonight, people latching on to that. The important thing to remember with that TT though was he went out a lot earlier than Kiryienka and conditions were much more favourable for Poels. It could be a lot closer tomorrow though, but 5/2 is a bit short now I think.. 

Valverde is a mad price at 9/1, I can't see him in the top 5. Wilco Kelderman isn't a bad time triallist, especially over shorter distances, such as his 2nd in the Eneco Tour and 9th in the prologue of the TDF, but in the hilly TT in Paris-Nice he finished a poor 61st. Ok, this is no Col d'Eze but it puts me off him tomorrow. Fabio Felline could go well, but not for me at 11/1. Sylvain Chavanel can pull off a decent time trial on a good day and seems to be in good form this week, but I don't think he'll be in the top 3 here. Cameron Meyer has been backed tonight, plunging from 100/1 to 18/1 on a few bets, but I can't have him even if he is starting early, he has done nothing in years to suggest he can even finish in the top six here. Svitsou at 150/1 could put in a big ride, as could Ben Hermans and Mollema, but I can't see them in the top six.

And that's about it, I can't see anyone else getting involved - I think it is going to be very close, but I'm going for Coppel, Kiryienka and Poels in that order, with Van Garderen, Kelderman and Chavanel after them. At the prices, Kiryienka looks an each-way bet to nothing (as in you get your money back if he finishes 2nd or 3rd) but Coppel is taking a small bet from me as I think the course suits him well and he is in such good condition. 

Recommendations:

2pts each-way on Vasil Kiryienka at 4/1 with Bet365

2pts win at 11/4 on Jerome Coppel at 11/4 with Bet365

MatchBets

3.5pts win on Poels Vs Van Garderen at 4/7 with Bet365

 

 

 

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Stage 5 

Stage 5 -  San Roque to Peñas Blancas 

Sunday February 21th, 164.2kms

Well that was a pretty crap stage on the betting front with Kiryienka doing even worse than I feared he might, finishing way down in 16th place, the exertions of the week and an order in his ear I would think the reasons for such a poor time. I'm really annoyed with myself too that at the start of the week when I wrote this preview I actually said I thought Van Garderen would be favourite for this time trial and that he could go in to the final stage with a lead over the other climbers. But then I bottled and didn't back him, I allowed the bookies prices to sway my thinking.. So instead of backing him at a fantastic price of 9/1, I left him and instead drew a blank. It looked for a while though that Coppel could actually win it, but slipped down to 3rd. He has a nice little buffer though on some of the climbers, being just 7" behind TVG, so hopefully he can hang in there to a podium spot. Hopeful too that Van Garderen can hang in there for our headline pick. 

This should be a Sunday afternoon treat, the Queen stage and the likely decider of the outcome of this race. The time trial will have given us am indication of who is in good form and who is not quite there yet, and we will see the stronger time triallists pull out an advantage over the climbers. 

There shouldn't be much to separate the likes of Van Garderen, Poels, Coppel and Kiryienka but the likes of Valverde and Majka will probably have ground to make up. 

The first 40kms are flat but then the climbing starts in earnest with a climb that is in effect 20kms long, split in to two peaks, the second of which is the categorised part. The first part is around 12km long and then there's a little descent for around 3kms before the final push of 5kms to the summit. A 10km descent is followed by a 6km descent to the next KOM of the day, followed by another 6km descent. 

Another 8.4kms of climbing and they reach a plateau that takes them along rolling roads for 12kms before they plunge down a steep and twisty descent for 15kms. The GC hopefuls will need to be on their toes here, particularly if it's wet, as one mistake or moment of hesitation could see the race disappear in front of them. 

 

There's one more small climb of 5kms and some rolling roads before they hit the bottom of the final climb up to Peñas Blancas. Make no mistake, this is one nasty climb to finish the stage and the race with. It doesn't really go that high, it's only 980m in height, but they start at only 20m at sea-level in Estepona so they climb 960m, over the 14.5kms. The official average gradient of the climb is given as 6.6%, but there is a section from the 3km point to for about 2.5kms where it is flat for a lot of it and even descends a little. 

It comes in two waves because of that flatish section, the first 3kms are pretty steep, hitting 9.7%, 11.5% and 12.5%, then it eases off a little and at the 5.5km point it starts the final part, which is pretty steady and consistent, averaging around 7%. 

So how do we think it's going to go? We saw in the race last year that a climber on a good day can tear the rest of the field apart - Contador did it on stage 3, Froome did it on stage 4. There is no superstar climber like those two here, and in fact there are quite a few of these riders are of similar ability so it is going to be intriguing as to how it pans out. 

Tejay Van Garderen is in the driving seat as I predicted he would be, and BMC showed again today just how powerful their team is with 1st, 4th, 7th and 18th in the TT. Bookwalter is looking strong, as is Sanchez and Hermans and with Caruso, Gilbert and Atapuma Van Garderen has a seriously strong squad. And not just that, Van Garderen is also looking really, really good. He has looked smooth out on the road, calm and confident and he crushed that TT today, getting stronger in the second half in to the headwind and up the hill. I am not sure he can win this, probably not, but I can't see him far off the winner, and could even finish within a few seconds and hold on for the overall win. It'll be the first time he'll have won a race in Europe though, he almost won the Criterium de Dauphiné last year, Froome stole it off him on the very last stage. 

Valverde and Poels have been made co-favourites at 2/1 for the stage, and if either of them are going to win it, it will probably be in totally different ways. For Valverde to win it, he will stay with the leaders and attack late, or win a small group sprint, even though he needs to make up 22" - I just don't think he will be capable of riding away from the Sky and BMC teams on his own, he might settle for the stage win. There are no bonus seconds in the race, so winning the race from 22" down is a lot harder than if there were 10" for the win.

On the other side, Poels will probably have to go long and try to ride away from BMC and Movistar - that's not going to be easy either, especially seeing as he didn't seem at the top of his game today in the TT, the favourite for the stage finished in 6th place, 20" behind Van Garderen. Sky's Sports Director Dario Conti came out with some nonsense this afternoon saying that they were confident as Van Garderen wasn't as good a climber, I think that he's worried and is trying silly mind games. Of course, if he rides like he did in Valencia, he could well destroy them - he toyed with Aru and LuLe Sanchez in the last 3kms and just rode away from them. It's going to be fascinating to see which Poels turns up here tomorrow, will it be the one that Van Garderen beat by 26" on Modane Valfrejus in the Dauphiné last year? Or the guy who finished nearly 20 minuntes behind Van Garderen on Plateau de Beille in the Tour? Who knows. But with such an open stage and so much at stake, I'm not tempted to back him at 2/1.

Wilko Kelderman sits just 2" behind Van Garderen and the Lotto-Jumbo man could still play a big part in the outcome of this race. He says that he is in fantastic shape and has been training really well this winter. He also said today that if he is feeling good near the end of the stage he is going to go all in to try to win. I think the only way he can be a major factor in this race though is if BMC set a high, steady tempo for most of the final climb and whittle it down to about 20 guys, and no one is able to get away on an attack.. Then maybe he could try one late, last attack. But it's going to be very hard for him to leave Van Garderen, Poels, Valverde and the like behind and take the stage. 15/1 doesn't appeal to me.

Rafal Majka did an ok TT today, but sits 51" behind in the GC now. That may mean though that if he is part of the leading group as they come to the last 3-4kms he may be given more leeway to go on the attack as the GC men watch and mark each other. 9/1 is a bit skinny though, it's not a great sign to me that he lost so much time today. 

Bauke Mollema and Tim Wellens are similar in their chances here I think, they may get leeway to attack but might have to go early in the climb, with maybe 5kms to go, before the fight for the GC really starts. Javier Moreno rode a good TT today for someone who is not a TT specialist, finishing a very creditable 9th place. It could be that he is sent up the road early to get others to chase and let Valverde have a free ride to the line. At 40/1 he is a tempting bet to have a long shot, he clearly has good legs, he also finished 10th on the stage Poels won in Valencia.

Steven Kruijswijk had some memorable stages in the Giro last year, including a 2nd behind Landa on the stage to Aprica and 5th to Madonna di Campiglio. He finished 13th in the TT today, a solid performance. He could be one to go early too to attack and make the others chase in order to tee up a later attack for Kelderman. He could also be asked to work for and protect Kelderman though so it's a longshot.

Omar Fraile, Igor Anton, Kanstantin Siutsou, Bart de Clercq and Oliver Zaugg could all attack early and go for a long one, Fraile at 50/1 would be my pick of that lot.

So how do we sort all that lot out? Poels may well attack away if he's as good as he was in Valencia. Valverde can win a group sprint. Van Garderen could ride them all off his wheel if he really is in as good shape as it seems with that TT today. I like Kruiswijk at 33/1 though and Fraile at 50/1 and a saver on Valverde, as I think he may well win from a group of 5-10 riders at the finish. Jerome Coppel is 200/1 for the stage but hopefully he can hang in there long enough to secure a podium spot.I think Van Garderen will hold on for the win, he's now 4/7 to do so with Bet365, Kelderman is 11/2 and Poels is 13/2.

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Steven Kruiswijk at 33/1 with Bet365

0.25pts each-way on Omar Fraile at 50/1 with Bet365

2pts win on Valverde at 2/1 with Bet365

 

Matchbets

Steven Kruiswijk to beat Roman Kreuziger - 2pts at evens

Daniel Moreno to beat Mikel Nieve - 1pt at 4/6

Navarro to beat Anton, Hollenstein to beat Monfort and Javier Moreno to beat Fernandez - 2pts on the treble at 6/4 all with Bet365 

 

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