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- Published on Monday, 15 February 2016 23:53
Tour of Oman 2016
Tuesday 16th to Sunday February 21st
The Tour of Oman completes the trilogy in the middle-east and so far we have had lots of wind and sand and some surprising results. Two sprinters have won the GC in Dubai and Qatar in Marcel Kittel and Mark Cavendish, but it's unlikely we're going to see a sprinter win in Oman, Green Mountain will see to that.
This is the fifth running of the Tour of Oman, and the recent editions have all been won more or less on Green Mountain. Rafael Valls ('15), Froome ('14 & '13) and Velits ('12) all have either won or finished 2nd on Green Mountain, with the 2010 edition the only time that they have not finished with a stage on the mountain and Fabian Cancellara took the win, courtesy of the time trial which was part of the race then.
Rafael Valls was a surprise winner on Green Mountain last year, much to the joy of those who had backed him at XX. Alejandro was the 2/1 favourite last year but came up short on Green Mountain, finishing a decent 3rd but shipping 19" to Valls, but it was good enough to secure 3rd on the GC as well though. Tejay Van Garderen rode well to finish 2nd on GM on his first outing of the year, it secured 2nd place on the GC for him. Vincenzo Nibali was 2nd favourite at just 5/2 and he came in to the race downplaying his chances, and he was right to do so as he finished 2'27" down on GM and finished way down in 20th place on the GC. Nibali is back this year after starting his season in San Luis compared to Dubai last year, so he's had over three weeks to prepare and fine tune himself for this challenge this year.
When they finished on GM in 2014, Chris Froome had bemoaned the fact that the stage hadn't actually finished at the top of the climb. Well, they finally took his feedback on board two years later and have added nearly two kilometres to the climb, but it wasn't enough to encourage Froome and his team to come to the desert again this year.
The race seemed to be enjoying tremendous growth in it's short five-year existence, with many of the world's stars making it an important part of their early season training block ahead of the classics and stage races in Europe. But this year seems to have reversed that progress and although they have some stars here like Nibali, Martin, Dumoulin and Porte, the depth of quality here is pretty light with no Froome, Quintana, Contador, Valverde, Rodriguez or Van Garderen, they have all skipped it this year in favour of races in Europe. Maybe the whole chaotic episode last year with the stage being abandoned due to the excessive heat exploding tyres was the straw that broke the camel's back for some teams who were less than committed about another race in the deserts of the middle-east.
There's also opportunities for the sprinters and Sam Bennett, Andrea Guardini, Moreno Hofland and Sacha Modolo will be hoping to finally get in front of Alexander Kristoff after the Norwegian stormed to three stage victories in Qatar.
2015 Podium
| Rider | Team | Classification | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rafael Valls | Lampre-Merida | 21h 09min 32s |
| 2 | Tejay Van Garderen | BMC | at 9s |
| 3 | Alejandro Valverde | Movistar | at 19s |
The Route
Like in Qatar and Dubai, the route doesn't vary much from year to year, but it's quite a varied route with something for many different types of riders. The terrain is also more varied with rolling hills and of course, the big challenge of Green Mountain. Being in the south-east of the Arabian Peninsula means that it is less windy than the other two races, but that's not to say the weather can't be a problem - in fact, last year the riders staged a protest that wound Eddie Merckx up big time, they weren't that keen on riding in 40 degree heat on melting roads and eventually had the stage cancelled.
Stage 1 is short-ish at 145kms and is pretty flat up until 20kms to go when they go over two little climbs in quick succession, the Al Jissah climb coming just 5kms from the finish could see the race break up. Stage 2 starts with a climb after 33kms, then is flat for the next 129kms or so before an uphill finish to Quriyat that should suit the punchy climbers. Stage 3 looks like one for the sprinters, Stage 4 is the big one to Green Mountain, Stage 5 takes them to the Ministry of Tourism and over the Bousher al Amerat climb three times, this was the stage that was cancelled last year because of the heat. The final stage to the Matrah Corniche should be another chance for the sprinters to have one last duel before heading back to Europe.
They then descend for 14kms to the foot of the Climb of Al Jissah, a short, sharp ascent of 1.4kms at a nasty 9% that could well see the race break up. Those with GC ambitions will need to be on their toes so as to not lose any time on the very first stage. After the summit of the climb they descend for 3kms before a 2kms run to the finish line. 
We'll see a break go but it should be reeled in in time for the finish in Quriyat. When they last finished in Quriyat two years ago it was with a sprint finish, this year it's very different, there's no chance it will end in a sprint as the last 2.8kms of the stage rise at an average of 6.5%.
This is a proper hard climb - it starts hard and doesn't get much easier. It officially average 10.7% for the 7.5kms of the climb but the gradient rises at various gradients at different points on the climb. 
Overall Contenders and Favourites
The race will almost certainly be decided on Green Mountain, but don't underestimate the rest of this course as it has some exciting and varying stages that could see some riders steal some time ahead of the big climb on stage 4. Green Mountain is a new challenge again this year though as they have added nearly 2kms to take it to the summit of the mountain rather than stop where they used to in previous years. But there is also a new innovation this year with the addition of a second uphill finish on stage 2, one for the Ardennes classics types riders with the last 2.8kms averaging 6.8%.
The bookies came out late on Monday with all their prices, and they had unanimously made Richie Porte the favourite, with Ladbrokes the first out in the morning with Porte at 6/4. Will Hill and Bet365 are shortest at 11/10, but Skybet, Laddies and PP have now gone 13/8. What do we make of his chances at such a short price then? It was interesting to see some of the comments from him in the last 24 hours, he claims that his whole season revolves around the TDF so he is not at his best level. He also said that his preparation in Tasmania in the winter was him just riding his bike for fun and it wasn't very intense at all.
That didn't stop him from riding away from everyone on Willunga Hill again in the TDU and taking 2nd overall in the GC.. And since then his prep will surely have been taken up several notches as he prepares for his first really big test of the year in Paris Nice. He's got a number of boxes ticked to do well this week - he should do well on the punchy stages 2 and 5. He should be right up there with the best climbers on the GM, it's a little bit similar to the stage he won to Brentonico in Trentino last year, if a little steeper. He's got one of the strongest teams here with him for on the flat stages and should be well looked after - he will possibly need them to be on the top of their game on stage 5 to protect him on the multiple ascensions if he's being attacked from all sides. They don't have great climbers here to support him on the GM, but that's going to be every man for himself anyway so he should be able to look after himself.
Second favourite is Vincenzo Nibali and the former winner has been down-playing his chances again this week just like he was last year and we saw last year that it was worth paying attention to that as he lost 2'27" on GM and finished in 20th position overall. He is preparing for the Giro this year though so he should be further along in his preparation than last year when he was going for the TDF. He rode ok in San Luis, but was well off the pace on the big climbs and I think it could be the same here. I think he will lose at least 30" on GM, maybe even more. He could also lose some time on the finish of stage 2 to the punchier types. The 5/1 on him doesn't really interest me and the 11/4 with Skybet certainly doesn't.
There's a wide spread of prices on Dan Martin for his race, ranging form just 6/1 with PP (dodging the Irish support) to 12/1 with Skybet.. He was 14/1 with Bet365 but I guess some saw that as just too big and hit it, he's just 10/1 now with them. He started the season in the Volta Valenciana and took a great win on stage 2, attacking away from a strong pack on the run to the finish and holding them all off. He lost a minute on the Queen stage though as team Sky pulled the front of the race apart for Poels. He was only 35" behind Aru though and finished ahead of Rodriguez, Nieve, Lopez and Herrada though so it wasn't too bad, he was probably happy with his stage win and paced himself.
I think he could do well on a number of stages here, Stage 2 looks good for him - he could take 10" or more off some of the other climbers here with a punchy finish like that that suits him. With 10 bonus seconds available on the line it could give him a nice buffer ahead of GM. Stage 1 could also see him make his mark, if he can get away with a small group over the last climb without any sprinters, he could be a candidate for the win from the sprint. Stage 5 also can be a tough stage that he could like, but it will all come down to whether he can perform on GM or not. It's a little on the steep side for him, but it's not like there's Froome or Quintana here, he may be able to limit his losses if he gets in a good rhythm and paces himself to the top.
AG2R come here with two options - Domenico Pozzovivo and Romain Bardet and although both are very good riders, I don't think either are possibly at the top of their game at the moment. Pozzovivo did his usual TDU - good, but not great, finishing 7th overall, losing 17" to Porte on Willunga. GM is more his sort of climb though, his light frame is much more suited to a long, hard climb like this than the short punchy Willunga. I am worried he will lose time on some of the punchier finishes, but he could be one of the closest to Porte on GM if he has been training well. Pozzovivo lost 51" to Froome on GM in 2014, but I would put the opposition here closer to the likes of Uran and Rodriguez than Froome, he was about 20" behind them.
Bardet opened his campaign later than most by not doing the TDU, he started out in the GP Marseillaise but wasn't able to stay with Pinot on the final climb and eventually finished with the main group in 28th place. On that same stage mentioned above when Pozzo finished 6th, Bardet was 8th, 59" down, I think we could see a similar result this year which would rule him out of contention. I don't think he will make up any time on any of the other stages to compensate. What might fall in to their hands though is that they have these two cards to play and they can launch multiple attacks and hope one sticks as the other is watched.
Rui Costa rode this race for the first time in 2015 and finished a creditable 11th seeing as you'd have thought the steep gradients of GM doesn't really suit him. In fact he finished an excellent 6th on that stage, just 49" back. He wasn't able to go with the Cancellara group on the Al Bustan stage though and lost 46", that's the danger, that he could be caught out with a weak team around him.
Tom Dumoulin starts his year with him openly admitting that this is a time trial year for him, with the Olympics at the top of his priorities, followed by the Giro TTs. He was excellent in the Vuelta last year on the climbs, especially on some of the punchier, short ones, so he should go well on some stage here. I think though that with his focus on the TTs and the fact that he's probably carrying a little too much weight at this point in the season he may struggle too much on GM to make an impact.
Eduarda Supulveda took a superb solo victory in the Tour De San Luis, the Fortuneo Vital Concept man is clearly in great shape at this time of the year after a hard winter block in south America. He has a very lightweight team with him for in the hills, but it was the same way in San Luis and that didn't hold him back. If he can ride like he did on the Cerro El Amago in SL, he will be right up there in the first three or so on that stage and it may be enough to secure him a podium at a tempting 28/1 with Skybet.
Jurgen Van Den Broeck starts the next chapter in his career after signing for Katusha after things had gotten pretty stale at Lotto-Soudal. He says he is in great shape, that his training has gone well and he is very bullish about starting well with his new team. He is a strong rider that I have liked for years and had some succes with him (late podium placer in the Dauphiné in 2014 at 50/1) but also have had plenty of losses on him as he has failed to deliver so many times. He could go well on GM, he could lose a minute, it's hard to know. He could also lose time on stages 1 or 5, so even at 33/1 I'm going to pass for now.. he's the kind of rider that could start riding well but could still be ignored by the bookies, so I might get on later if I think he is looking ok.
Gianluca Brambilla and Edvald Boasson Hagen have tasted victory already this season and are clearly going well, but I don't know if they will be able to hold their losses to less than 30-60" on GM. Both could do well on some of the other stages with their attacking nous and pure strength, but it may not be good enough.. Stage betting may be the way to go with them.
Jacob Fuglsang could go well but the climb is probably too steep for him, especially as it's his first race of the year, Serge Pauwels, JJ Van Rensburg, Merhawi Kudus, Patrick Konrad (10th here last year) and Janez Brajkovic could also go well but maybe not good enough.
Dan Martin is supported here by Bob Jungels and he looks to be in great shape, he was desperately unlucky in Valencia when he went straight on after a motorbike instead of turning right with only 1500m to go when he was away solo. He believes he would have won and that tells me that he is extremely strong at the moment. I woudn't put it past him to try another late attack one day so he could be an outsider to watch at a big price if he does get a gap one day. The boy is well able to climb too, don't forget he finished 13th on Alpe D'Huez in the Tour last year, ahead of Mollema, Nibali, Contador and Majka. He's 150/1 with PP and Betfair.
So decision time - I think it's probably between Richie Porte, Dan Martin and maybe Pozzovivo. I think Dan has good legs and will be looking to make a mark as a GC man this year and these sorts of races with not such a great depth of opposition are races he should be looking to land. We know he goes well at this time of the year on the climbs and he has a win under his belt already, and has a very strong team with him. He can knick bonus seconds potentially and I think he could well stay with Porte and attack him at the finish on GM. I had to take some of the 12/1 on him as I think he should go very close. Eduardo Sepulveda is a medium priced outsider that could podium thanks to Green Mountain, and Bob Junels for the long shot. On the outright matchbets, I can't understand why Bet365 have Dan Martin at 5/4 versus Brambilla, surely Dan will put lots of time in to him on GM? Have to back that.
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Dan Martin at 12/1 with Skybet
0.5pts each-way on Eduardo Sepulveda at Skybet
0.25pts each-way on Bob Jungels at 150/1 with PP
Outright Matchbet - 4pts win on Dan Martin to beat Gianluca Brambilla at 5/4 with Bet365
This season I am also going to be naming my top ten riders to watch in some races, for the many of you out there that like playing Fantasy Cycling games. Fantasy games such as the Zweeler cycling games where you can play for cash prizes.
Here's my ten to watch for the Tour of Oman
1 Dan Martin
2 Richie Porte
3 Eduardo Sepulveda
4 Domenico Pozzovivo
5 Patrick Konrad
6 Bob Jungels
7 Romain Bardet
8 Rui Costa
9 Vincenzo Nibali
10 Merhawi Kudus
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