Stage 2 

Stage 2 - Omantel Head Office to Quriyat

Wednesday, February 17th,  162km

Well that was a real good news/bad news kind of day.. It started with the bad news that @Sophiesmith86 reported that Dan Martin had developed a cough overnight but was hoping the warm temperatures would help clear it up.. It now looks pretty clear to me that this may have been known for a bit longer than overnight and hence why Brambilla was smashed in to in the head-to-head bet.. I couldn't understand why Dan was 5/4 otherwise. As it turned out, Dan Martin rode a superb stage to finish with the leading group, gaining a 14" advantage already on Brambilla. It's not over yet, he may get sicker if he is indeed sick, but the signs are pretty good, I was fearing a big time loss today after reading that. 

More good news - my 150/1 GC pick Bob Jungels rocketed away from the leading group in the descent of the final climb with less than 5kms to go. He had planned this move apparently with several days, even asking the mechanics to fit a 55 tooth apparently for the descent and told his roomie Laurens de Plus that he would win today... That's confidence and the attitude of a real winner - I am really becoming a huge fan of Jungels.. So he now holds a 10" advantage over Serge Pauwels with Romain Bardet impressing in 3rd, he's 14" back. 

The bad news? The fact that I predicted he would do something like this on a stage and not back him today when he was 66/1! Absolute schoolboy error, should have at least had a small bet on him just in case!

Good News? Dan Martin is still right in the hunt being just 18" back and pre-race favourite Richie Porte is as good as out of the race after finishing 3'24" down, he was dropped on the final climb. Porte made all sorts of excuses afterwards, his trip over was horrid, delayed flights from Australia, he's not feeling fresh, he's not here with any big expectations, his big target now is Paris-Nice etc... don't think that will wash with the people who backed him to win this race... And rather than working his ass off to help GVA in the finale when he needed it, he was way off the back. 

GVA rode well to take 6th and he was pleased with his race, he was 4th over the top of the last climb but was unable to cover all the moves at the finish and the first three home slipped away. Bad news - Eduard Sepulveda was in the big move of the day over the last climb with the favourites but crashed on the way down the descent.. He mustn't have been too badly shook up or the bike not badly damaged though as he joined the next group on the road and came in with them 40" down. It could have been a lot worse though, he's still only 32" down on the Nibali/Martin group.. 

Kristoff didn't make it over the last climb, but Edvald Boasson Hagen did and I think his backers will be cursing Serge Pauwels for going on the attack at the finish, it meant that EBH was denied a chance to go for the placings. He zoomed up the hill to take the fourth spot on the road and almost caught Bardet for 3rd. He sits fourth overall. 

Other notable performances today - Romain Bardet as I said above surprised me with his 3rd place, he must be feeling really good and looks very skinny. Serge Pauwels led home five Dimension Data men in the first 25, they are riding really well at the moment. Tom Dumoulin powered his way to 5th and Rui Costa was an impressive 7th, Davide Rebellin up there in 8th and young Floris de Tiers popping up in 9th place ahead of Vincenzo Nibali for Topsport. Nibali didn't miss the move of course, nor did Pozzovivo, Van Den Broeck or Patrick Konrad.

So now, who do we make favourite? I'll let the bookies price that up one later on, but Jungels is in the lead and is clearly riding very well and full of confidence.. Will it be enough to drag himself to the top of GM with the mountain goats? We'll see.. Will he be asked to work for Dan Martin from now on or will it be vice-versa as he holds the lead and Dan may not be 100%? We'll soon see there too - Stage 2 will give us an insight as to just how well or not Dan is feeling.. Nibali, Pozzovivo, Bardet, Pauwels, Van Den Broeck, Dumoulin, Costa - they are all still in the running and after starting well. 

Stage 2 takes them in a south-eastern run alongside the coast for 162kms from Omantel to Quriyat with a climb of Al Amerat after just 33kms (3.4kms at 8.8%), but it will not effect the outcome of the race on this stage. It will be far more important on stage 5 though as they will be going over it five times in total, so the riders will be getting nice sighter of it ahead of that..

We'll see a break go but it should be reeled in in time for the finish in Quriyat. When they last finished in Quriyat two years ago it was with a sprint finish, this year it's very different, there's no chance it will end in a sprint as the last 2.8kms of the stage rise at an average of 6.5%.

This is a tough finish to the stage in the mould of the Cauberg of the Amstel Gold race, that is 800m at 6.5%.. So we are looking for riders who are suited to that sort of climb but over a slightly longer distance. The winner on this stage could take a nice lead going in to the GM stage as there are 10 bonus seconds at the top to go along with any time gains they make in winning. It will be interesting to see if someone goes from the bottom and looks to put as much time in to winning as possible, or whether they wait for the steeper last kick to the line for one last attack.

Paddy Power were very early out with their prices for this, they were available on Monday afternoon when others were still yet to bring out their stage 1 prices (in fact, PP had stage 3 prices out as well on Monday) But hey, why the hell not, they are all independent looking stages that should not see dramatic changes in the probabilities of the winners bar accidents or illnesses in the meantime.

They had installed Dan Martin as the 5/2 favourite and you can see why, I had mentioned in several places already that this stage looks perfect for him. I think Etixx will control the race along with BMC and look to set up Martin for a powerful late attack like he did in Valencia last week. This hill is also a lot like the finish to Liege-Bastogne-Liege - that is 1.5kms at 5.6% with the steeper parts towards the top. We all know how good Dan Martin is on this sort of climb and if goes like he does on the finish in Ans, there will be few who can stay with him. Since his fine showing today on Stage 1 he had been supported and clipped in to 2/1 with PP, despite the reports of him suffering from a cough. He has since gone back out to 3/1 with PP, Bet365 are 5/2.

Second in the betting is Tom Dumoulin at 5/1 and to be honest, as strong as he is, I can't see him staying with Martin if he accelerates away hard here. He may well be in a chasing group coming after him, but I don't think he'll be winning. He sprinted a bit one-paced today at the finish but was passed by a flying EBH, not sure he's got the legs to sprint at the end of this climb. Rui Costa is an interesting one at 8/1 with 365, he should like this sort of finish - he has finished 4th ('15) and 9th ('13) in LBL and 4th in Amstel Gold Race. Like today, he could well be at the forefront of a chasing group and could sneak a podium spot. 

Richie Porte was 9/1 but has since been pushed out to 12/1 after his disastrous start.. I thought he would have his backers for this stage pre-race, this is very similar to Willunga Hill which is 3kms at 7% gradient, but after today I'm not so sure.. But maybe he just wasn't feeling great and will come good tomorrow, or maybe he has just one or two stages in mind and is playing games..Not sure he has the mental capacity for that though. He could possibly explode away tomorrow and catch them all on the hop. Porte will have Oss, Quinziato, Rosskopf, Schar and Van Avermaet helping to control things and keep a very high tempo, like the days of Sky leading him to the last kilometre on Willunga.. If he does what he does on Willunga, and he was really bluffing today, then he surely has a superb chance of victory here too.

I guess another complication is that a very in-form Greg Van Avermaet is here too and will also like this finish. This sort of climb is manageable for GVA, especially if the team is working for him, after all, if there is a group of favourites comes to the finish together, Porte will not be winning the sprint and they may have to fall back on GVA. The fact that they both opened 9/1 reflects that uncertainty and at first it was a coin toss for me as to which one of the two they would be riding for - after today though and on form, you'd have to side with GVA. 

Vincenzo Nibali is also 9/1 and I wasn't all that interested in that at first.. Having seen him today though I'm not discounting him entirely now. I can't bring myself to back him at that price though. Davide Rebellin - he is just 14/1, an incredible price for a 44 year old. But, he keeps knocking out good rides, however he manages it, his 8th place finish today and his 9th place finish on the Hatta Dam he has to be respected. Not for me though, 5th to 10th again I think.

Romain Bardet was one I wanted to wait and see what sort of form he is in before taking a view on him and I was actually more impressed than I though I'd be with him today. He attacked away on the run in today and just about hung on for 3rd place. I think this is too short and easy for Eduardo Sepulveda, but I don't expect him to lose time to the favourites like he did today because of the crash. I think he will go well but can't see him winning it.

If Nibali isn't up for it, Jakob Fuglsang could have a go, but hard to know what sort of shape he's in, he tried a few digs today at the finish but wasn't able to maintain them or get away. The 25/1 might look a terrible or amazing price tomorrow afternoon, but I don't want to pay to find out. Ponzi, Gasparotto, Van Den Broeck, Grivko, Cimolai and Gerdemann, they could all give it a go on this final climb, but hard to see any of them getting away and staying away.

I think it is an intriguing stage from not just the stage victory point of view but the GC's also - will the winner be a GC candidate who can steal some time and a 10" time bonus? That could be crucial if they are not the best climber here or in their peak condition. For that reason, I think Dan Martin will be going all guns blazing for this, he could do with a 20" buffer going on to Green Mountain I think. It's going to be a dog-fight in behind for the placings and we could see the likes of Bardet, Costa, Nibali and Dumoulin fighting it out.

At the prices, Bardet at 14/1 each-way with PP caught my eye, he's been cut now to 10/1 but that's still worth a small interest. Interestingly, Paddy Power came out with their GC market today around 5pm and they had made a right mess of it, with Porte still the 9/4 favourite, despite losing well over three minutes today. They had Nibali at 4/1, but have since slashed him to 6/4, Bet365 go 13/8. Martin is only 5/1 with PP, 365 go 12/1, looks like they are still prepared to take him on with his cough.If you want to back Porte, don't take the 4/1 with Paddy Power, he is 200/1 with Bet365. 

Recommendations: 

1pt each-way on Daniel Martin at 4/1 with Ladbrokes

0.5pts each-way on Romain Bardet at 14/1 with PP

 

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Stage 3 

Stage 3 - Al Sawadi Beach - Naseem Park

Thursday February 18th, 176.5kms

An eventful stage today, Eddie B was superb again, outsprinting Nibali and Van Avermaet at the finish, where only 9 riders fought out the finish, but they included Rui Costa, Pozzovivo, Brambilla, Rebellin and Bardet in 8th. Just 6" behind them was a little group with Sepulveda and Dumoulin. Dan Martin's race is over, he was caught out on the wrong side of a split in the cross winds with 20kms to go when BMC and Dimension Data blew things apart. Bob Jungels was unlucky to be caught on the wrong side of the split too and tried to bridge, burning a lot of energy that cost him 59" by the finish.

Pozzovivo looked strong on the climb, attacking inside the last kilometre and he took just Nibali, EBH and GVA with him, but died in the last 100m as the other three came past him. He looked good though for a possible blast on Green Mountain and I think he could well podium here overall, he's worth a small interest at 8/1. 

The start and finish of this race are only about 25kms apart on the coast but they go off on a 175km horse-shoe shaped route that takes them from Al Sawadi Beach south to Al Awabi and back to Naseem Garden. After heading west for 20kms to Al Muladdah where they turn south and start climbing. It's a gentle gradient that drags on for nearly 65kms but it shouldn't really trouble these guys too much and we are likely to see the stage ending in a bunch sprint. 

After they crest the climb after 85kms they descend for almost 90kms, so the end to the stage is sure to be extremely fast, but it looks like they might have a slight headwind on the way back to the coast, which will hinder any breaks attempts at trying to stay away. It's quite similar to the stage in 2014 to Naseem Garden that was won in a sprint by André Greipel which you can see below. Leigh Howard finished 2nd to him, Howard won that farcical race in Almeria on Sunday when they ended up racing over just 21kms, but I must say fair play to Skybet who refunded all bets on the race as a result.

So another sprint, another win for Kristoff? It's highly likely - and he's just 1/2 with PP to win but is as 'big' as 7/10 with Will Hill. Every guy he is up against at the top of the betting he has beaten comfortably already this season - Bennett, Guardini, Hofland, Jans and Hutarovich and with his Katusha train are sure to launch him to a winning position with 200m to go.

Bennett is a tempting 9/1 with Paddy Power, he is just 5/1 with Will Hill. Guardini is a very short 4/1 as a result then with PP though and that's way too short, He's twice that price with Bet365 at 8/1. Hofland ranges from 9/1 to 13/1 and again, like with Qatar I am going to hold off on backing him I think until I see him produce a decent result. He got a little bit closer in the final stage in Qatar taking 7th but he hasn't been good enough for me yet.

RoyJans has been riding well, taking a surprise 3rd on stage 2 in Qatar and following it up with another 3rd place on the final stage. He could well go very close again tomorrow and the 19/1 with Will Hill looks tempting as he has beaten a number of his rivals already this year. 

Boasson Hagen and Van Avermaet are riding so well that I wouldn't be surprised to see them involved in the sprint again, but the chances are there will be 4 or 5 guys at least better than them. Gerard Ciolek is a rider I want to keep an eye on though, riding for Stolting now, he was a class act in his day and could start getting involved in some of these sprints. 

Not a great day to be betting on, Kristoff will probably win but is no price, Bennett and Jans look tempting at 8/1 and 19/1 so I'm going to have a small interest on both of them

Recommendations:

0.5pts each-way on Sam Bennett at 9/1 with PP

0.5pts each-way on Roy Jans at 19/1 with Will Hill

 

Match Bets

Gerard Ciolek to beat Andre Looij at 10/11 - 2pts with Bet365

Hutarovich to beat Kump - 2pts at 4/6 with Bet365

Jans to beat Hofland - 1pt at 4/6 with Bet365

Sam Bennett to beat Guardini - 2pts at 4/6 with Will Hill

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Stage 4 

Stage 4 -Knowledge Oasis Muscat to Jabal Al Akhdhar (Green Mountain)

Friday February 19th, 177km

Kristoff was indeed too good for them today on what looked like a hard day in the saddle with thunderstorms and rain out on the course. Roy Jans did the business for us at 19/1 by taking 3rd in the sprint again behind a resurgent Moreno Hofland. Sam Bennett's Bora Argon team got lost again, they have a lot of work to do to sort out that train, they have had lots of attempts already this season and have blown every single one of them. The match bets were horrible, Jans manages to finish 3rd and still lose a match bet to Hofland!..

Dan Martin and Richie Porte both lost time again today, I wouldn't be surprised to see them both pack their bags ahead of tomorrow, unless Dan has been looking for time in order to have a crack at the stage tomorrow, when he might get more freedom. Richie Porte apparently is looking a little Porte-ly, maybe he has been preparing a-la-Ullrich ahead of the season, he's blaming jet-lag. 

And so on to stage 4 and the fabled Green Mountain stage! It's fabled as it's about the only stage that really arouses any sort of excitement or interest in all three races in the middle-east.

They set off from the 'Knowledge Oasis', a technology park near Muscat Airport and head south, climbing all the while as they pass through Fanja and Bidbid until they reach a height of around 600m before they reach the sprint at Al Rebkah after 82kms. They then ride along rolling, but mostly flat roads until the second intermediate sprint at Birkat Al Mouz after 163.5kms. Right after they pass through it they start on the climb to Jabal al Akhdar, or Green Mountain as it's known.

This is a proper hard climb - it starts hard and doesn't get much easier. It officially average 10.7% for the 7.5kms of the climb but the gradient rises at various gradients at different points on the climb.  

The very start of the climb is brutal, 300m at an average of 20%! It eases a little then so the average gradient of the first km of the climb is 11.4%. Then 12.8% for the next kilometre, 5.5%, 11.9%, 12.4%, 11.9% and 13% for the last kilometre. I say these figures based on the data on the chart above, but looking at it closer it doesn't look right to me - e.g. the section from 5km to 4km doesn't look just 5.5% to me and the section from 3km to 2km doesn't look 12.4%.. but regardless, the climb is hard and will blow the race to pieces. 

Last year, Tejay Van Garderen was very strong on the climb, attacking early and shaking off Rafal Majka and Alejandro Valverde, but he wasn't able to shake off Rafael Valls who came with him. TVG attacked him again with 300m to go but Valls clung to him and then attacked him at the 200m to go sign.. They crawled to the line and although Valls got a gap as TVG seemed to be cracking, TVG came back at him again in the last 100m but Valls held on. You can see just how tough the climb is in the video clip below. 

 

It's sure to be the decider of the race again as the next two stages probably won't see major time gains or losses so it should make or an exciting stage again. 

Vincenzo Nibali is now in the driving seat with regards to the GC chances here, he sits just 4" behind Boasson Hagen, who you'd think he'd be able to beat on this climb. The dangers to him will come from whose behind - Bardet, just 2" behind him; Costa and Pozzovivo just 6" behind and possibly even the likes of Fuglsang, Pauwels, Eddie BH, Dumoulin, Sepulveda, Kudus and Van Den Breock who are further behind could get involved. As it is though, he is 5/6 favourite now to win overall, and honestly, I'd rather lay him at that price than back him. He probably will do well. He may well win the stage (he's 5/4 to do so) but he has a host of guys queuing up behind him to take him on and I wouldn't be surprised if he cracked a little, he can't chase everything and there could be attacks coming from all directions for a while. 

Domenico Pozzovivo looked to me like a guy who is capable of winning this stage looking at his attack in the last kilometre of stage 2. He attacked and strung it out enough to have them all on the limit, but died a little near the finish and was passed by EBH, GVA and Nibali. So what do we make of the attack? He strung things out for sure, blew a few guys like Dumoulin out the back doors in the last 500m, but then he died and was passed by the three guys listed above. He looked sprightly and fast, the question is, can he maintain that sort of power and acceleration for a little bit longer than he did on that short climb on stage 2? If he can sit in, let Astana and Nibali and maybe Dimension Data for as long as possible work for EBH, I think he will need a double attack - an initial one to test the water, let some guys come back up to him and then go again in the last 500m or so. 

Who knows what will happen on this stage, Nibali could breeze it or he could blow up like on the Hatta Dam etc last year. Costa could spring a surprise and actually attack for the first time since his World's win in 2014, Fuglsang could attack while everyone watches Nibali; Richie Porte could have been sandbagging and playing games since the start of this race and sprint away to victory like on Willunga Hill. Davide Rebellin could wind up millions of cycling fans and come out of the 'he's in the shadows and we just about tolerate his presence' camp and enter the 'what the actual f***?' camp and win this stage?

Eduardo Speulveda could attack early and with gusto like he did in San Luis - if he manages to do that and win by the 54" he did on the big climb in San Luis, then he could even take the race lead.. A bit ambitious maybe, but it's not beyond the realms of possibility. He has not lived up to his potential at times but this could be a real 'arrival' moment for him to take this victory ahead of the likes of Nibali, Pozzovivo and Costa.

Edvald Boasson Hagen is 25/1 for this stage, and as much as I'd like to see him win here this week after his puncture heartache last week, I really can't see him staying with the best climbers here on such a hard climb. He has looked ridiculously strong in the last few weeks, but this is a different matter for a guy who's not a noted climber and is carrying 73kgs.

Dan Martin has finally admitted he has 'been feeling a bit shit' this week with a chest infection he has not been able to shake off, and said 'Who knows, maybe I'll wake up tomorrow and feel ok and give it a crack'.. I can't see him recovering that quick, he lost another minute today on a flat stage.. He did say though that the time he lost on stage 2 was unexpected, that they were caught out by a change in direction where it wasn't even a cross wind, but a tail wind - the pace upped, the peloton got strung out and someone let a wheel go and they were gone. 

Davide Rebellin is 25/1 also and as well as he has been riding, you can't see him win this. I wouldn't rule out a top ten at all though and he may even sneak a podium spot. Now Richie Porte was one that I wasn't even going to consider for tomorrow, he has been so bad this week.. But then he came out today with some quotes trying to excuse his poor form saying Oman was a pit-stop to Europe and he was picking his battles this year.. he finished it off by saying “It’s almost Zoncolan. It’s a hard solid climb. I’m not sure, but it’d be nice to have a bit of a show there.” prompting a bit of support and a slide in his odds to as low as 9/1 with Bet365. Sorry, but I can't have him. He has been so poor all week and he is looking out of shape, I can't see him lasting with the fitter guys here.

Tactics will play a big part here for as long as riders can hang in there - Nibali has Fuglsang to cover attacks, Bardet can attack earlier and let Pozzo sit in and wait to counter later on, Sepulveda could go long, Rebellin I think will follow wheels for as long as possible and try to pounce very late.. we may see a 'surprise' addition or two to the lead group late on too.. Van Den Broeck could pull a ride out of the bag, now he is part of the Katusha machine, Serge Pauwels has been riding really well, Patrick Konrad was 15th on this stage last year and riding well this year too, and if someone goes early and there's cat and mouse behind they might just make it

As it is though, Nibali may well be too classy for these guys, Porte could surprise and have been bullshitting all week waiting for a crack at this, but I think the two AG2R men hold the aces on this finish - Bardet can attack, if it works, great, if not, Pozzovivo is waiting to pounce once Nibali or Rebellin or someone like that chases him down. It should be a great finish to the stage, it's a shame we won't get to see it live. Pozzovivo at 4/1 is a tentative bet for me with a small each-way on Sepulveda in case he repeats his San Luis ride. 

Recommendations:

1pt win Domenico Pozzovivo at 4/1 with various

0.5pts each-way on Eduardo Sepulveda at 22/1 with Bet365 

 

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Stage 5 

Stage 5 - Yiti (Al Sifah) to Ministry of Tourism

Saturday February 20th, 119.5km

The fifth stage is a short one at 119.5kms but should be an exciting one as there are plenty of lumpy climbs along the way. It starts out from Yiti with a couple of lumpy bits to get over as they head along the coast, but the first two main climbs come after 33kms and 40kms with the Al Jissah climb which they already went over on stage 1 (1.4kms at 9%) and the Al Wadi Al Kabir (1.9kms at 6.3%). 

They roll along until the 73km mark where they then start on the Bousher Al Amerat climb which they do three times in total. It's a tough little climb that averages 6.8% for 3.2kms and hits 20% max gradients and we will probably see a whittling down of the group every time they go up it. They come over it for the second time from the opposite side, this side is a 3.4kms climb that averages 8.8%. They crest it for the third time with just 13.5kms to go so the final ascension will be crucial in deciding the stage winner. The last 5kms are pretty flat, so if it is a solo rider or a small group that gets away they will have to be going flat out to hold off the chasers on the run-in. 

In 2013 Froome won a similar stage to this and in 2014 Peter Sagan won it from Rigo Uran on a day they crested the climb four times in the last 60kms, with Nibali leading home the chasers just 2" back. This stage last year was the one that was cancelled when the riders complained about the conditions, with some teams suffering multiple punctures because of overheating tyres/rims in the 40 degree heat. It was the scene of the protest in the shade of the bridge when Eddie Merckx went around trying to bully them all in to racing, but Cancellara and Nibali were having none of it.. 

I think this is going to be a cracking stage - that closing 50kms is going to be wild as they tackle the Bousher Al Amerat from both sides. The race is still there to be won with Bardet only 15" behind Nibali and Dumoulin 40" back. Ok, 40" is a lot of time to make up but it's not impossible, anything can happen as we see often in racing - just ask Eddie Boasson Hagen or Luis Leon who crashed out of Algarve today. With bonus seconds available at the top of the final ascension with just 13kms to go, the organisers have devilishly added a twist which could see the likes of Bardet and Dumoulin try to attack early to get the bonus seconds and get away and try to stay away on the run to the finish. 

Easier said than done though, especially as Vincenzo is in superb shape and Fuglsang equally so - he was really strong again today on Green Mountain and this terrain tomorrow is more his sort of style. It wouldn't surprise me to see him attack in the closing stages as the others watch Nibali, as long as he doesn't win by 15" or more at the finish, Nibali still wins. Of course, Nibali could also win this, there aren't many in the peloton that are better than him at late attacks, particularly on descents and as we saw so far this week he is climbing better than anyone else as well. If he attacks late on, there may only be a handful of riders go with him - Bardet, Fuglsang, Dumoulin and maybe EBH and GVA, but it will probably have to be late in the climb after a pretty steady pace for them to be close enough to the top to hang in there. 

Eddie Boss is riding so well at the moment though that I think he could well manage it - Nibali doesn't need to attack after all and he has Fuglsang to chase attackers down if needs be, and after a tough day on GM, Bardet and the other climbers might be blunted a little. Eddie B finished 10th today, just 1'10" behind Nibali, a superb result - he was ahead of Sepulveda and Pozzovivo. He has been made favourite for the stage tomorrow at 5/2 with Bet365 but is as short as 15/8 with PP. If he gets to the finish with the likes of Nibali, Fuglsang, Dumoulin, Costa and Bardet, he should outsprint them all - we saw how fast he was on the finish of stage 1 when he shot past Dumoulin at the finish and how he sprinted away from the others on the 2nd stage to Quriyat. . 

Van Avermaet could well be there as well but he struggled today and lost 4'45" to Nibali - ok, we never expected him to be up there with the climbers, but it could be that he is one of the favourites group who could get left behind tomorrow. If not, then he has a chance as well of course, we have seen him sprint really well in the last month. Likewise with Tom Dumoulin who is around the same price at 8/1, he has been going so well this week that he should be in the mix. To climb to fourth today, just a handful of seconds behind Nibali was super impressive. He's a real fighter and is sure to be agressive tomorrow as he's only 16" behind a podium spot - win the stage by more than 6" and he moves in to 3rd place.

Brambilla and Rebellin could be up there as well and Brambilla could well attack away near the finish and solo to victory. Kristoff is 25/1 with Bet365, he's just 12/1 with Paddy Power and he is a curious one.. He can get over the Poggio and hills like that when he needs to so it's not like he's a Kittel who gets blown out of it on the smallest little ramps. 25/1 looks tempting, he might be worth just a small bet at that price just in case it's a select, but not too select group comes ot the finish.. no one will outsprint him if it is.

Rui Costa, Nathan Haas, Bob Jungels - they could all be involved and could all try attacks in what could be a chaotic finish - the stage is only 119kms after all and really, they will only be racing hard for the last 45kms. Mike Teunnisen rode very well on stage 3 to lead out Hofland and still finish 4th, he could possibly be able to stay with the punchier guys and would have a chance in a sprint. But I think we could see a semi-select group of maybe ten riders go to the finish together and Eddie B looks to be in prime position to cap a memorable trip to the middle-east with his second stage win.

Recommendations:

0.2pts win on Alexander Kristoff at 25/1 with Bet365

1.5pt win on Eddie Boasson Hagen at 5/2 with Bet365

0.5pts each-way on Tom Dumoulin at 11/1 with Paddy Power

 

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Stage 6 

Stage 6 - The Wave Muscat - Matrah 

Sunday February 21st, 130.5km

A perfect call on Eddie B today then, he was well able to handle the final climbs and easily won the group sprint at the finish. As it turned out, the final climb didn't make the selection many were expecting, and there were in fact 34 riders came to the finish together, a mixture of climbs and strong puncheurs like EBH and GVA and they fought out a small bunch sprint. GVA did great to take 2nd place again, I shouldn't have doubted him and should have plumped for him instead of Dumoulin who finished in 27th place.

So no selection by the climbers, Bardet tried but was reeled in by Nibali, Nibali didn't need to do anything agressive and his backers never got a run for their money, like I feared might happen. I am becoming more and more impressed by EBH, I've not seen him this strong at this point in the season ever. I missed the 50/1 earlier in the week on him for Paris-Roubaix, but I reinvested some of my winnings from today on him at 28/1 each-way.

The final stage of the race is relatively short at just 130kms, and first takes them north-west along the coast to Al Seeb before they double back and ultimately start heading in a general easterly direction. After 78kms they go over the climb of Al Hamriyah (800m at 9.8%) and then after 92kms they turn left again at Al Jissah where the first intermediate sprint of the day is located. Shortly after they climb Al Jissah with 35kms to go, and although it is relatively tough at 9% for 1.4kms, it should be far enough from the finish for sprint trains to drag their sprinters back in to the race for a sprint finish in the Matrah Corniche. The finish comes after four laps of a 7km circuit around the Matrah Corniche, with the last three kilometres flat and straight - it's almost certain to end in a sprint. 

Flat and straight, there can be only one winner then eh? Alexander Kristoff will take all the beating again and it's no surprise he is just 8/13 with Paddy Power. It looks like he only just missed out on being with the front group today, he finished in a small little group just 1'18" behind the winner, but well ahead of plenty of other groups. I haven't seen the final  kilometres footage yet, but I would guess that he only got dropped the the very end of the climb and he chased them the whole way down to the finish. Clearly the best sprinter in the race with the best leadout, he looks a shoe-in for tomorrow. 

Can anyone stop him? I honestly don't think so - Bennett's leadout needs to sort themselves out or he will struggle to even finish in the top 3 again. They just have not been good enough, and he has not been agressive or confident enough to ditch them and surf the wheels of the likes of Katusha. They are still working on trying to get it right though and in a long season of far more important races than the Tour of Oman, it's better to iron out the problems here and now. He's 11/1 with Paddy Power who have been taking him on every race.

Moreno Hofland had said ahead of stage three that he really fancied his chances, that he was starting to feel a lot stronger and the team were starting to get it right. He has a lot of strong guys around him and they did indeed get it right, putting him in with a chance of winning but Kristoff was just too fast. He seemed very frustrated by second though, I think that was him shouting "AH FUCK..... ARRRRR" after the line as you can just hear in the link to the video below. 

Kristoff the sultan of sprints https://t.co/YQB9yZFPGn

— Gregor Brown (@gregorbrown) February 18, 2016

His support was so strong that day that Mike Teunissen finished 4th on the stage and if he and Van Asbroeck can get it right again I think they can get closest to Kristoff again.

I'm tempted to go back in on Roy Jans again after he landed the each-way money at 19/1 the other day, he really is sprinting well. He was 3rd that day and with two 3rds in Qatar as well he will be keen to try to move a place or two better. A lot of the sprinters didn't really get in to it on stage 3 though, it could be different here and he might be squeezed out.

Jempy Drucker came pretty close on stage 3, taking 5th place just behind Jans and Teunissen. He has struggled in every sprint in Oman and Qatar up to this though so I'm not interested in him tomorrow at just 18/1. Edvald Boasson Hagen is also 18/1 and I'd rather be on him than Drucker at the same price but I think 5th to 10th for him. Meersman is 33/1, but looking at his results in the last three weeks I can't see him in the top 10.. there's a longer term plan for him. Yauheni Hutarovich was improving it seems in the last stage of the Tour of Qatar when he landed 4th place, but has been way off this week though, finishing 41st in stage 3 and I can't see him being involved again. 

Kristoff will win again, no doubt about that I think and will take another step towards victory in Milan-San-Remo in a month's time. Moreno Hofland can chase him home hopefully, and if Kristoff has a problem for some reason he could even take the win. No match bets available at the moment though at 8.30pm, Paddy Power are still the only bookie with any odds whatsoever, no odds yet for Andalucia.  

 

Recommendations:

1pt each-way on Moreno Hofland at 8/1 with PP  

 

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