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Published on Thursday, 11 February 2016 17:06

Vuelta Ciclista Murcia

San Javier to Murcia

Saturday February 13th, 199.3kms

The Vuelta Ciclista a la Region de Murcia 'Costa Calida' (phew) is right up there with the longest race name on the calendar. It takes place in the region of Murcia in the south-east of Spain and is now in its 17th year, it was first run in 2000, but up until 2011 it was actually a stage race with 5 stages. 

In 2011, as the race started to suffer with financial difficulties it was shortened to just three stages (won by Contador, but was subsequently taken off him following his Clenbuterol ban). In 2012 it was shortened further again to just two stage, one a tough stage not too dissimilar to this year's race and the second was a 12km ITT. Nairo Quintana won stage one and did enough in the TT to hold on to his overall lead, but 2nd in that race was none other than Jonathan Tiernan-Locke when riding for Endura, with Woet Poels of Vacansoleil in 3rd.

2013 saw it become a one-day race as the race started to struggle to attract the big names with the big-money options of Qatar and Oman starting to lure teams to the middle-eastern races. It was won in 2013 by Daniel Navarro with Bauke Mollema and Valverde just behind him in a sprint from a group of just 10 riders. Nairo Quintana was 11th home, 3" later.

The race was won in superb fashion in 2015 by Rein Taaramäe when he attacked away from the peloton with over 50kms to go on the main climb of the day. He crested the climb with 47kms still to go, charged down the narrow descent and time trialled his way to the finish. He hit the nasty climb to the finish of the Alto Fortaleza del Sol with a short lead and Katusha chasing hard behind, but held on by just 10" from Bauke Mollema and Zdenek Stybar. 

When Valverde won in 2014 he had attacked away from a chasing group who were trying to catch Tiago Machado who had been away solo.. Valverde caught him and they rode together on the final climb until Valverde just sprinted away from him with 200m to go. 

They are always challenging routes which go inland to the Sierra Espuna mountains and generally have a tough climb in the middle and a later climb which usually decides the race. And this year is no different. 

The Route

It's a relatively long course at 199.3kms, the longest version of the race of the last four years. The first 25kms of the loop around San Javier are flat but as they start heading inland the road starts to climb. After 99kms they start on the first climb of the day, the Cat 3 Alto de Aledo, a 7.6km drag. They start a short 4km descent and then they are already on the main obstacle of the day the Cat 1 Alto Collado Bermejo, the Cima Marco Pantani. This climb takes them up to a height of 1201m, averaging 5.8% over its 7.5kms and once over the top there's still 80kms left to go, so probably too early to make a solo move, but a strong group will probably get away. 

They descend on a fast and tricky road for almost 20kms and pass through the sprint point at Alhama de Murcia with 60kms to go. Shortly after they turn left and start heading north-east towards the finish in Murcia. With 25kms to go they start on a little loop south of Murcia which takes them over the final obstacle of the day, the Cat 3 climb of the Alto Cresta Del Gallo, which averages 6.8% over 4.5kms. They crest it with just 13kms to go so if anyone makes a big move on this climb they could well stay away to the finish. After a twisty run to the finish in Murcia through a number of roundabouts, they go through the 1km to go marker after a sharp right hand turn, go over the bridge and up a 400m finishing straight. The road drags gently upwards from 3km to 1km to go, but the last kilometre is flat and straight. 

It's a very similar route to the 2013 version won by Navarro, where they also went over the Alto de Collado Bermejo, but with just 35kms to go and finished up the hill to the Castillo de Lorca.

Contenders and Favourites

It's likely that we will see only 70-80 riders still in contention as they crest the top of the Collada Bermejo, especially if the likes of Movistar want to thin things out and get in a bit of mountain training in the process. There should then be another whittling down on the final climb, as the 6.8% average gradient masks some steep sections in there that are sure to see some more go out the back. The race will be on in earnest at that point and we could see attacks galore or Movistar looking to blow it to pieces in order for Valverde to attack near the top. We could get a solo attacker go here and try to stay away to the finish or we could get a small group of maybe less than 20 come to the finish together.

You have to start with a rider who has won the race three times and also finished 3rd in 2013, Alejandro Valverde. It's now a course that suits his style perfectly - a tough Cat 1 climb in the middle of the race, a nasty little climb just 13kms from the finish and an uphill finish. Valverde rode three of the Mallorca races where he took a 5th, 6th and 73rd place, but hasn't raced in the last two weeks.  

Movistar have a strong team here with Fernandez, Izagirre, Sunderland and Herrada, but they also have Jose Joaquin Rojas too who could have a chance in a race with a finish like this if a reduced group comes to the line together. he could be their sprinter as the others watch for Valverde. He rode ok in the TDU, taking 9th place on the first stage, but disappointed a little after that, but he should be fitter at this point. 

Astana come here with a strong squad that includes LL Sanchez who finished 5th here last year. Sanchez is in the twilight of his career but has been riding well at the start of this season, taking second place in the Volta a la Comunitat Valenciana GC after a fine ride on the opening TT over 16kms which he finished 2nd behind Poels. He also finished 7th on the stage to Fredes won by Dan Martin, and 6th on the hilly stage 3, so the climbing legs look in good shape too. They also have Tanel Kangert here and Cataldo who could go well, but it looks like the team is riding for Sanchez. 

BMC have a really strong and interesting team here with a mixture of pure climbers and puncheurs. Atapuma, Van Garderen, Sanchez, Caruso, Bookwalter and Hermans look like they are here to drag Philippe Gilbert to the finish where he would be in with a chance of winning this race. Gilbert finished 5th on the Hatta Dam in the Dubai Tour to seal a 6th place finish on the GC and has had a week off now to fine tune ahead of this race. With a punchy climb coming just 13kms from the line, and a slightly uphill finish, the course finish looks perfect for Gilbert. 

Katusha have had a good week with Kristoff winning 3 stages in Qatar, but their team here looks lightweight to me. They have Zakarin, Silin and Porsev but I don't think it's hard enough for them to solo away on and I don't think they would win a sprint finish. 

Direct Energie are interesting.. Sylvain Chavanel won a race for the first time since the Chrono Des Nations in Oct 2014, when he took a stage of the Etoile de Besseges last week, winning a sprint finish after an attricious stage from Gallopin and Vichot. It saw him take the leader's jersey for two stages only to lose it to Coppel in the final TT. Winner of the first two stages though was Bryan Coquard, who won both sprints after tough, lumpy stages. If he can hang in there over the two big climbs of the day, he looks to be in great shape and could well be involved in the final sprint. 

Cofidis have Cousin, Edet, Maté, Navarro and Simon, but they don't look like they are good enough to win this though. Bora-Argon have Sam Bennett on the startlist, but I know for a fact he's not starting, he's on his way to Oman, but they do have Jan Barta and Ralf Matzka here who could go well. After that there's a bunch of Pro-Continental teams like Topsport Vlaanderen, Gazprom-RusVelo and Roompot, but I can't see many of them getting involved at the finish here when the likes of Movistar, Astana and BMC start to ramp it up in the last 90kms. 

It's likely though that this race will come down to a few scenarios. One - whether a break gets over the top of the main climb of the day with a big lead, as they could hold it all the way to the finish. Two - a smaller group get away on the final climb of the day and we have an elite sprint. Three - a solo rider or two get away on the final climb while the favourites watch each other and stall (someone like Ben Hermans, Jesus Herrada or Sylvain Chavanel). Or Four - we get a large peloton come to the line together and it's a sprint to the line. 

I think the fact that there are very few sprinters on the start line tells you that the final scenario is unlikely. Most likely scenario in my mind is either two or three - a late break wins it, or it's an elite group sprint. Valverde is a very likely winner in both circumstances, but Phil Gilbert, Coquard, Sanchez could also be involved.

Unfortunately the gutless, lazy bookies do not look like they are going to be pricing this race up, really disappointing seeing as we have some quality riders here. And especially as I have gone to to the effort of writing this! Anyway, I think Valverde is the likely winner but probably would have been 6/4, I probably would have gone for someone like Coquard e/w or Hermans for a late attack at a big price (probably 50/1+)

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