Details

Published on Wednesday, 30 September 2015 17:06

Il Lombardia 2015

Sunday October 4th, 245kms

The Race of the Falling Leaves once again travels between Bergamo and Como, but this year does it in the opposite direction to the 2015 route. In 2014 they travelled from Como to Bergamo and as a result had to crest the Madonna del Ghisallo after only 50kms of the race. This year it goes in reverse and the Ghisallo comes at a more crucial point of the race with just 65kms to go.

"The Ghisallo is to this race as the Poggio is to the Sanremo, or as the forest of Arenberg is to Paris-Roubaix. These locations will never go out of fashion, as long as there are crowds of enthusiasts who will take a train, a car or a bike to travel across Europe and wait for hours for riders to pass by. This year, for its 109th edition, the race will start in Bergamo and finish in Como: 245 kilometres climbing up and down Ghisallo, Muro di Sormano, Civiglio, with one of the toughest descents in cycling, and San Fermo della Battaglia, to pay tribute to Garibaldi’s soldiers who gave their lives for the Unification of Italy. The last 70 km will be really demanding.." 

Luca Gialanella, La Gazzetta dello Sport

Il Lombardia, formerly known as the Giro di Lombardia, is an interesting Classic in that the route is always changing. You have Milan-San Remo which varies the route but always goes from Milan to San Remo, via the Poggio every time. Paris-Roubaix, Liege-Bastogne-Liege more or less the same. But Il Lombardia changes direction, going east to west, west to east but generally tends to go between cities like Bergamo, Lecco, Milano or this year, Como, but the Madonna Del Ghisallo and the Muro Di Surmano are its Poggio, Arenberg Forest or Oude Kwaremont. 

Dan Martin was the brilliant winner of the race last year, catching everyone by surprise, attacking on the flatter section with 500m to go, shooting down the right hand side of the road when Gilbert, Valverde, Costa and co. all just looked at each other, waiting for someone else to take up the chase. In the end they were sprinting for 2nd place as Martin was not going to be caught. It was a superbly exciting finish to the race with attacks galore, Tim Wellens looking for a while like he had a race-winning gap, but Gilbert closed it down. Costa, Albasini, Barguil, Aru, Valverde - all were involved and rode well on the day, but Martin was smarter than them all.  

Joaquim Rodriguez is bidding for a third win, looking to join Damiano Cunego, the only three-time winner of the modern era - only Binda and Coppi have won it more times. Dan Martin has a great record at Lombardia - in his first time riding in it in 2009 he finished 8th. He has also finished 2nd to Oliver Zaugg in 2011, 16th in 2012, 4th in 2013 (but that doesn't tell the story of his crash in the last 200m..) and won of course last year. 

The Madonna del Ghisallo is a shrine to cyclists - the chapel at the top is a monument to champions past and fallen cyclists, with an eternal flame burning in their memory. From the bike of Fabio Casartelli who died tragically in the 1995 Tour de France after hitting his head on a concrete bollard, to Fausto Coppi's old Bianchi, it's a place that should be on most cyclist's bucket lists. The museum beside the chapel has the pink jersey of the Giro winner from every year since 1931 to 2014 in a fantastic display. 

The Route

The race sets off from Bergamo, southbound. The route initially leads through the Bergamo plain (over the first 40 km), and then up along the Val Cavallina, all the way to Casazza, for the first climb of this race: Colle Gallo (763 m, right), a climb they crossed last year in the latter part of the race. A fast-running descent leads back from Val Seriana to Bergamo; but before they reach Bergamo they turn right and start heading north-west when the route goes back on flat roads and eventually arrives in Brianza.

The course passes briefly across Colle Brianza (533 m) and descends into Pescate, then heads for Valmadrera and Oggiono. Finally, it rolls past Pusiano and Asso, and drops down into Onno, heading for Bellagio, where the Ghisallo (754 m) climb begins. The climb averages 6.2% for 8.6kms, and has a maximum 14% gradient, on a wide road, with several hairpins. (below) The average is a bit deceptive though as it very steep for the first 3.5kms, then flattens out and even descends for 3kms, before kicking up for the last 1300m at 9.4% average. 

The descent runs quickly on long, straight stretches up to Maglio, where the Colma di Sormano climb (1124 m, right) begins abruptly. After a few kilometres with a moderate gradient, a few hundred metres past Sormano, the route turns left to tackle the Muro di Sormano (2 km at a 15.8% gradient). The road is tight and very steep, and it runs partly through the woods, with very narrow hairpins and sharp gradients exceeding 25% and reaching almost 30% after about 1,000 metres.

After clearing the Colma, the road descends down into Nesso (initially on apparently flat ground, followed by a very technical descent with several hairpins on narrowed roadway). Here, the route takes the lake-shore road that leads to Como. A harsh climb up to Civiglio follows (4.2kms at 9.7%) and the roadway is markedly narrowed at the top of the climb; the route then runs through Como again, and heads for the final section of the race.

The final climb isn't too long or too hard, but coming at 237kms it is really going to hurt and should be the scene of the race winning move or final selection. The climb has a gradient of nearly 7% over just 2.7kms, on narrow roads and rough surfaces, with several hairpins that lead all the way up to the summit, which comes with just 5kms to go to the finish. The descent runs along a wide and well-paved road, with two well-lit tunnels and two wide roundabouts, and it ends 1,000 m before the finish. One last, wide left-hand bend can be found 600m before the finish. The home straight is on 7m wide asphalt road. The distance of 245kms is 9kms less than last year's race and 3kms less than the average distance for the last 3 years. 

Something that could have a major bearing on the race though is the weather forecast - it looks like it's going to be a very wet day in the saddle with rain and thunderstomrs forecast for Sunday, for the whole region. Winds should be low, around 5-6mph, but the forecast says at the moment that there will be heavy rains on Friday, with flash floods possible in Northern Italy, and that rain and thunderstorms will persist in to the weekend. Last year the weather was excellent, in 2013 it was very wet, making it a treachourous course, one that claimed Dan Martin when he slipped up on the final bend as he was heading for a sprint with Majka for 3rd place, a sprint he'd probably have won . They were so far ahead of the chasers though that he managed to remount, sort his chain out and still finish 4th. Gutting for those who were on him each-way though!

Contenders and Favourites

The trouble with trying to figure out how this race might go is that the finish is completely different to last year's or other recent runnings of the Lombardia. At the same time, it's pretty straightforward - this is a bloody hard course that gets harder towards the latter part. The first 170kms are relatively easy, but they still contain the Colle Gallo, which is 7kms at 6% and the Colle Brianza, which will start to tire some out ahead of the main action of the day. With 73kms to go, the race gets really serious. First up is the legendary and iconic Madonna del Ghisallo which will start to thin things out, I expect the likes of Astana, Movistar and BMC to be pushing it in order to get rid of some of the hangers-on and we may only have 60-70 guys left at the top of it. 

It's only 6kms to the bottom of the Colma di Surmano, which starts easy enough but turns in to a brute of a climb near the top, with the last two kilometres averaging 15.8% and hitting max slopes of 25-27%. We should see the next wave of thinning out here and we might only have 40-50 guys in the front group once over the top of the Surmano. In 2013 there were only about 40 guys left in the front group after they went over the Surmano and headed towards the Ghisallo. From the top of the Surmano there's just 50kms to go, 13kms of which are descending the very tricky descent. There's 20kms of flat roads after the descent where some might be able to get back on, so it will be important for the likes of Astana and Movistar to keep the pace really high to stop others from rejoining the lead group. In 2013 they climbed the Villa Vergano with 10kms to go, and at that point the race distance had taken its toll and the race blew to pieces on the final climb. By the time Rodriguez made his race-winning move there were only 6 left in the front group, including Martin and Majka. 

Alejandro Valverde is the short-priced favourite for this race and given his recent record there you can see why - 2nd two years running to Dan Martin and Joaquim Rodriguez. He should really have won last year, but Martin jumped him and no one would take up the chase and start the sprint, and Valverde was never going to do that. He has had a great year this year too and sprinted to 5th place in the World's just last weekend 

This sort of course is perfect for him though, tough climbs to thin things out and then a relatively easy final climb with just over a kilometre of flat to the finish line and a possible sprint finish. Movistar have a strong squad here of climbers and rouleurs to go to work in the last 60kms, Izagirre and Visconti can do the climbing bits, or attack off the front to make the others chase, and the likes of Amador, Sutterlin and Soler can go to the front on that 20km flat stretch after the Surmano. If Valverde isn't involved for some reason (but I fully expect him to be) they also have Visconti and Rojas who could get involved in the sprint finish.

Joint favourite in places, but generally second favourite is Vincenzo Nibali and he looks like a man posessed at the moment, he is riding really well. After his ejection from the Vuelta he took a little break from racing and came back to finish in the top 5 in five of his last six races, including two wins, a 2nd and a 3rd. He disappointed a little for some in the World's, but I never thought it was a course for him, I can't understand why he was backed off the boards. With the Astana squad in top shape at the moment, winning again in Milan Torino on Wednesday with Diego Rosa (beating Contador's record time up the Superga no less), they will probably try to dominate the race. Does this course suit him? Well, I think there is no question but we will see Astana look to blow it apart over the closing 60kms - they have a strong team here and I can see them go to the front on the Ghisallo and look to cause splits, because I think yes, the course does suit him.

On the Surmano, the road is so steep and narrow that if you are not in the front group and the race starts to split with guys not able to hold the wheel you can very quickly find your self out of contention as the leaders ride away from you. If the pressure is kept up on the flat part we will see a group of less than 50 tacking the final two climbs - but I expect Astana to have at least 4-5 riders in that 50 as they will have been near the front and staying out of trouble. Then it's up to Nibali to try something over the final two climbs. He might try something on the Civiglio, but I think this will be the final softening up spot for Astana and whoever else want to make a selection and the main protagonists will save themselves for a final battle on the San Fermo Della Battaglia.

The final climb suits Nibali well though, 3.3kms at 7.2% average, he will be able to put some power down and get away. Then it's a tricky, twisty descent down to the finish, the sort of descent that Niblai will gain time on, rather than lose it, especially if it's wet. Diego Rosa and Landa are in good form obviously and could try the earlier probes, possibly on the Civiglio or the lower slopes of the SFDB, or just look to cover the moves for Nibali.

Joaquim Rodriguez has a great record in this race too, winning it in 2013 in the rain with a late attack on the Villa Vergano, a very similar, if slightly steeper climb than the SFDB. That day was a real war of attrition in the rain and he only had five riders left with him when he made his move. Since 2011 his results have been excellent in Lombardia, reading 3rd, 1st, 1st, 8th and in 2012 he won on a similar finish to this one with the descent off the Galbiate and a 2.5km run on the flat to the finish. His form has been patchy this year and he DNF'ed in the World's last Sunday, so I'm not sure I want to be backing him at around 8/1 and definitely not the 4/1 he is with Coral. EDIT - 03/10/15, 14:58 - PURITO DOESN'T START, HE INJURED HIS KNEE IN TRAINING!

Thibaut Pinot is a surprise 4th favourite to me at just 14/1. Yes, he is in good form, having recently won the Tour du Gévaudan Languedoc-Roussillon, but can he really ride away from these guys on a 3km, 7% climb and solo to the finish, a finish that includes a very tricky descent in to town? He should be 50/1 to do that I think and not 14/1, especially if it's raining.

Dan Martin wasn't even on the price lists of a single bookie on Wednesday morning ahead of his reapparance at Milan-Torino, a bizarre situation considering he is the defending champion and had tweeted himself that he was looking forward to Sunday with a warm-up in Milan-Torino. He made his first appearance since crashing out of the Vuelta and he admitted himself he needed to 'blow away some cobwebs'. It's hard to get a good read on his reapparance, 15th on the face of it could be looked at as a very satifactory reapparance, or a disappointing return in mediocre company. He was left behind by Rosa, Majka and Co. though when the pace was upped, but he did finish very quick, suggesting he still had a lot in his legs but just paced himseld instead of burning himself out.

He has a fantastic record in this race, winning it in 2014, and it could be that he finds himself in a very small group again like last year once they are over the Civiglio and will fight it out over the final 8kms. Do we take a chance on him at just 16/1? It's a tough one. I overlooked him last year after backing him all year and he only went and won it. Fabio Aru? Another of the Astana heroes, he warmed up for this by crossing the line celebrating Rosa's win in M-T, cruising in to an impressive 3rd place himself. Can he ride away from these guys though on that run in? I don't think so.

Tim Wellens will have his supporters again, and maybe he will repeat his success of the GP Montreal or the tough 7th stage of the Eneco Tour. He was right there in the mix last year and finished 3rd in the sprint behind Martin. He was very active in the last 4kms, attacking hard and getting a decent gap at one stage with just over 3kms to go and got up well for 4th place. The only other time he has ever done Il Lombardia though in 2012 he was 10 minutes off the pace in 50th place. All things considered though it was a disappointing season for him until mid August, I think more was expected of him this season. He was left out of the Belgian World's squad for the road race on a course that that looked like it suited him, so could be out to try to make a point here. 20/1 though is a bit tight for me for a guy who hadn't managed a top 3 in four months up until the Eneco. 

Rui Costa could go well in this race - he was right up there last year and always goes well in the latter part of the season, as the rainbow stripes on his sleeves attest to. 9th in the World's this year, 3rd in Montreal, 3rd in this race last year, 2nd in the sprint behind Valverde I think he will like this finish this year too. He should be still in the mix coming to the last climb and it is the kind of climb that could see him attack. If he gets away on his own, or even with a small group, he's such a good descender he has a big chance of winning, especially if it's wet.. He is a great tactician and has a good sprint from a reduced group - if he gets a gap and the likes of Valverde and Rodriguez look at each other and wait for someone else to chase he could be gone. 

Philippe Gilbert leads the line at BMC, especially now that Van Avermaet decided to call an end to his season this week. Gilbert was very strong in this race last year and probably should have done better, but he saw Martin attack on his right hand side and did nothing about it, he just let him go, which was a big mistake. Since returning from his crash in the Tour de Suisse he has finished in the top 10 in eleven races, including two wins and a fine 2nd in Clasica San Sebastian. Winner of this race in 2009 and 2010, 8th in 2011, 7th in 2014, he has what it takes to get a decent result here, especially given how it finishes with the descent and the possible sprint finish. I think he will top 10 it again Sunday, he may even podium.

And they are the main protagonists according to the betting, but given the competitive field here there are a whole host of guys who could win it. Michal Kwiatkowski didn't get close enough to podium in the World's and wants to bounce back this week, but I fear for him on the steep slopes of the Surmano. Romain Bardet could attack over the top of the Civiglio like he did in the Dauphine's stage he won, and could solo to the finish, but it's a big ask. Adam Yates has been riding brilliantly since the start of August, winning San Sebastian, two 3rds and 2nd overall in Alberta, 2nd in Montreal behind Wellens, he could be a real dark horse in this race at a decent looking price of 50/1 with Corals. He should be able to cope with the Surmano ok and may just be able to slip away on the final climb. As long as he doesn't crash like he did in San Sebastian last year he might have a chance of winning this. 

Diego Ulissi could go well but he might be working in support of Costa, but one rider I think might go well at a decent price is Alexis Vuillermoz of AG2R. 33/1 winner for us of the stage in the Tour on the Mur de Bretagne, he has had a really good season, one that doesn't seem to be letting up. Winner of the Olympic trial race in Rio over a lumpy course, winner of the 2nd stage of the Tour du Gévaudan Languedoc-Roussillon, which included two ascents of the Cat 1 Montée Jalabert in the last 46kms. He could be an unmarked assassin in this race and may be left slip away while the others look at each other on the final climb. He was in the attack in Milan-Torino and finished in 15th place, but said on his Facebook page that he was too offensive and went too early, but being on the attack gave him great pleasure. At 66/1 with Paddy Power paying 4 places it is worth a go I think. 

Woet Poels, Dumoulin, Gesink, Kelderman, they could all go well but might find the repeated, hard climbing a bit too much. One other rider that could go well at a big price is Michael Albasini, he rode very well last year to finish 6th, but his record in his previous four attempts at the race is four DNFs. Simon Gerrans is also coming in to a bit of form having returned from injury and said just this week that he was aiming for a big ride in Lombardia, that he has never felt as fresh at this time of the year because of his long injury lay-offs this year. 6th in the World's (sprinting against, rather than with his team-mate Matthews, I told you there was a split in that camp...), we know he can climb when he's on a good day, as his win in Liege-Bastogne-Liege shows. Although this could be a far harder day, at 100/1 he might be worth a very small investment - if he comes to that finish with a small bunch he'll be hard to beat.

Tom Jelte Slagter is another rider who could go a lot better than his 100/1 price tag suggests, he was flying in Canada, winning two stages in Alberta and finishing 4th in Quebec and 10th in Montreal. He was left out of the Dutch squad for the World's which was a big disappointment for him, he might be looking to make a point here. 

Overall though, I think a break will go, but it won't make it and we will see a favouriites battle over the last two climbs. Valverde looks the most likely winner, but I think Nibali could be a huge danger given the strength of the Astana squad and how well Nibali himself is going at the moment. Rodriguez, Martin and Gilbert could all go well, but I'm plumping for a few bigger priced outsiders instead.  

Recommendations:

2pts win on Vincenzo Nibali at 6.4/1 on Betfair 

0.4pts each-way on Rui Costa at 25/1 with PP paying 4 places

0.3pts each-way on Adam Yates at 50/1 with Corals

0.35pts each-way on Alexis Vuillermoz at 66/1 with PP paying 4 places

0.25pts each-way on Tom-Jelte Slagter at 100/1 with PP

0.2pts each-way on Simon Gerrans at 100/1 with Corals 

Match Bets

Slagter to beat Kelderman - 2pts at evens with Bet365

Vuillermoz to beat Henao - 1.8pts at 5/6 with Bet365

Costa to beat Mollema, Valverde to beat Moreno, Gallopin to beat Kwiatkowski - 2pts on the treble at 1.68/1

If you have enjoyed my previews this season, why not help me raise money for Qhubeka by making a donation by clicking on the image below! Let's try to buy some bikes for kids!