2015 World TTT Championships

Details: Published on Saturday, 19 September 2015 21:36

2015 World TTT Championship

Sunday 20th September, 38.8kms

The 2015 World Championships kick off in Richmond, Virginia in the US this Sunday, and over eight days will bring us a feast of cycling, culminating in the Elite Men’s Road Race next Sunday afternoon. It’s only the second time that the US has hosted the World Championships, the last time was in Colorado Springs in 1986, when Moreno Argentin took home the gold medal.

The proceedings kick off with the Elite Men’s and Women’s Team Time Trials, held over the same course and distance of 38.8kms. The team time trial only returned to the World Championships in 2012 after a break since 1994 and it's unique in the World Championships in that riders don't compete for a country as they do in all the other disciplines, but ride for their trade teams instead.

bmc worlds winners

BMC are of course the reigning champions after they roared around the course at nearly 54kmph last year to win the Gold medal by a considerable margin of 32 seconds from Orica GreenEdge and Omega Pharma Quick Step 4" further back in 3rd. BMC and Etixx are no strangers to a bit of rivalry at team time trial, but recently it has BMC who have been doing the better of the two, winning TTTs in the Vuelta, the Dauphiné and the TDF. A little surprisingly to me, it is EQS who were marginally shading favouritism at 7/4 to BMCs 2/1 when PP first opened their market during the week. Etixx-QS, or rather Omega Pharma Quick Step as they were at the time, won the title in 2013 and 2012 and are sure to be going all out to try to take their title back from BMC.

The Route

Looking at the profile below, you'd think this was a very hilly course as it seems to have several nasty looking lumps on it - but if you look a little closer at the profile, the highest points on the course are only 50m..! So, little bumps then rather than hills. Lots of straight lines on this course will suit the power horses, there are lots of opportunities to really go full gas. They start north-west of the city and gradually work their way to the south-east of the city, passing the finish line area before doubling back up to the finish line.

At 38.8kms it's almost 20kms less than the TTT last year in Spain, so it will be interesting to see how close the gaps will be this year. Last year there was only 6" between 2nd, 3rd and 4th place, so it was incredibly tight. It's technical in places, but generally quite an easy course to ride so it's unlikely there will be any shocks. The first time check at the 10km point will be an important one as the opening section is quite flat and straight - we'll be able to see pretty quickly who's on a good day or not. Shortly after the course dips down to roll along by the river for 5kms or so before rising back up the hill as they head towards the second time check after 17.8kms.

After that they loop around the southern most point of the course before turning left and then left again and starting on the leg home, passing the final time check at the 31.8km point of the course. It then dips back down towards the river again before the final climb up to the finish on East Broad St.

Course Map

2015 WC TTT MAP

Course Profile

Contenders and Favourites

BMC are the reigning champions and the most dominant TTT squad of 2015. The squad that comes here to defend its title is almost the exact same one as won the title in 2014. Rohan Dennis is now amongst the best time triallists in the world, right up there with Martin and Dumoulin. He has had a good season too, winning the the TT and the overall at the USA Pro Challenge (and took another stage and two 2nd places), won the prologue at the TDF and took the title at the TDU at the start of the year, and has won TTTs with BMC at the Dauphiné and the TDF. He will be a key part of this squad and is one of the favourites in my mind to take the individual TT title on Wednesday (I've backed him at 6/1).

BMC are also probably delighted to welcome back one of the top triallists in the world in Taylor Phinney. It was a dream comeback for Taylor in the US in August, coming 3rd in the first stage of the Tour of Utah and then winning the first stage of the USA Pro Challenge. Before his accident he was one of the best riders in the world against the clock and after a training spin in the TOB which he jacked in before the end, citing fatigue, I'd think he'll be fired up to put in a big ride in this TTT. He won't win the ITT or the RR, but how cool would that be for him to come back from that horrible injury and end the year as a world champion! He has said today that he is approaching his best level and that is a big boost for BMC.

Add in the massive powerhouses of Daniel Oss, Manuel Quinziato, Silvan Dillier and the rising superstar Stefan Keung and they have a serious chance of retaining their title. They have to go without Tejay Van Garderen and Peter Velits from the team that won last year, TVG crashed in the Vuelta and Velits just didn't show good enough form in the Vuelta to warrant selection, according to Marco Pinotti. I was surprised to see them installed as 2/1 favourites with PP when they came out with odds last week, I'd have had them favourite and not Etixx-QS who they had at 7/4. it didn't last long though and it looks like lots of other guys thought the same, because in less than a day they had cut them to 11/8 favourites with Etixx-QS now out to 7/2!

Etixx-Quick Step are second favourites now after opening as favourites, they are now around 5/2-11/4 and they should probably be the team most likely to challenge BMC for the gold medal. Tony Martin would probably beat half of these teams on his own, and he is joned by some serious firepower here. Nikki Terpstra, Rigo Uran, Michal Kwiatkowski and Yves Lampaert are very powerful riders and have lots of TTT experience between them. Terpstra, Martin, Kwiatkowski and Boonen were on the team that finished third last year, With Uran and Lampaert replacing Vermote and Pieter Serry, arguably making it a stronger team than last year's. Uran is a very good TT'er and is in good shape at the moment as was evident in his superb victory in Quebec just a few weeks back. I think they will go close but think BMC will have the edge over them once again.

Runners-up last year, Orica Green-Edge are a powerful TTT squad, but in my mind not as strong as they were a year or so ago when they finished runner up (for the second year running) to BMC. Durbridge, Bewley, Hepburn and Tuft are four really strong riders but Matthews will not be killing himself with the Road Race high on his agenda and Mouris is probably the weaklink. All six of them were on the team that finished on the same time as Trek in second place in the TTT at the Tour of Alberta two weeks ago over a course half the length of this WC TTT. You can never rule out OGE to pull off a big ride and they will have their supporters at 5/1 with PP who are paying on the first 3.

Giant Alpecin have a superb triallists in Dumoulin as we know, and Ludviggson is also a very strong man against the clock. Along with Nikias Arndt, Chad Haga, Georg Preidler and Ramon Sinkledam they have a pretty strong unit as well. I'm not sure how Dumoulin will go, he had a brutal end to his Vuelta and the physical as well as emotional effects are sure to be affecting him for quite a while. He also has one eye on the ITT, and although I don't think it's his style to hold back, I can't see him being at 100%. It was almost the same squad that lined up when they were Giant-Shimano last year, with Kittel being replaced this year by Sinkledam, but they were well off the pace last year in 8th place, I think it's doubtful they will break in to the top 3 this year

Movistar have one of the strongest teams here on paper with three national champions in Alex Dowsett, Adriano Malori and Jonathan Castroviejo amongst their squad. They are joined by Andrey Amador, Ion Izagirre and Jasha Sutterlin and they'll be hoping to go a little better than the 6th place they finished last year. They had Erviti instead of Castroviejo last year and they will definitely be a stronger team with Castroviejo. They could do as well as 4th or 5th, possibly sneak on to the podium.

Team Sky don't have Chris Froome or Bradley Wiggins any more and the team they have taken looks pretty lightweight to me. Vasil Kiryienka is a top quality time triallist, but he looked tired at the Vuelta and really disappointed in the TT, missing out on the podium, despite being one of the favourites. Ian Stannard is a strong rouleur, but always seems to blow up early in TTTs, he was the first dropped after only a few kilometres in the Giro. Viviani is a good sprinter and track rider, but average time triallist, and Danny Pate, Luke Rowe and Salvatore Puccio are all average at best against the clock. No chance of a top 3 I think.

Tinkoff-Saxo have a really strong team here though and could be a dark horse for the podium too and the 25/1 they are with Corals offer some value, they are 14/1 with PP and 12/1 with Bet365. Chris Juul Jensen is a machine and could become one of the top TTers in the world in the years to come, he will power along at the front for big turns. Maciej Bodnar landed a touch for us at 8/1 for a top 3 in the Vuelta TT and almost won at 66/1, leading until Dumoulin destroyed his time at the death. Peter Sagan, Michael Valgren and Manuele Boaro and Mick Rogers are all strong, experienced guys who should go well on a course like this. They came very close to winning the opening prologue of the Vuelta, losing by 1" to BMC, although that was only over 7.9kms and Bodnar and Sagan were the only two guys on that team. In the Giro TTT they also came close to winning, losing out to OGE by just 7" over 17.6kms - that team had Boara, Juul-Jensen and Rogers. Bet365 are only 9/4 for them to finish in the top 3, but Corals 25/1 pays a return of 5.25/1 on them for a top 3 if you back them each-way.

Astana - Some strong second-tier triallists in LL Sanchez, Andriy Grivko, Lars Boom, Lutsenko, Taaramae and Kangert. There are some strong TTers in that squad but below the level of the top four teams here I think. The 50/1 on them seems about right, I doubt they will even make the podium, but you can never know with Astana..

Lotto-JumboNL - 66/1 with Bet365, 20/1 with Corals, it shows again how much of a difference shopping around can make - if you fancy them to come in the top 3 but not win, Bet365 are offering 8/1 for a top 3, backing them with Corals pays out 4/1. Tjallingi, Van Emden, Leezer, Kelderman, Gesink and Vanmarcke - all very strong guys, but as a unit maybe lacking a little something. They were down in 9th in the Tour TTT with Gesink, Vanmarcke, Van Emden and Leezer in the team, I can't see them suddenly becoming challengers with the addition of Tjallingi and Kelderman. They did finish 4th in the Giro prologue, but only Tjallingi from that team is riding here. 6th to 10th for me.

Lotto Soudal - Bak, Benoot, Gallopin, Henderson, Roelandts, Wellens - a bunch of guys who will have their eyes on the road race more than this TTT I think and I can't see them troubling the leaderboard at all.

Lampre - have put in some surprisingly good TTTs in recent months, but looking at the team they'd have preferred this to have been a far hillier course than it is - Plaza, Costa, Pibernik, Cattaneo, Polanc - all pretty average TTers. Even the inclusion of the Portuguese national TT champion Nelson Oliveira will be enough to drag them in to the top 6 I think. They should be too strong for FDJ in their matchbet though at 8/11.

Trek Factory Racing will be missing their linchpin Fabian Cancellara and they look fairly average without him. Jesse Sergeant would probably be the best time triallist in their team, but after that they are pretty ordinary. They'll be lucky to break in to the top 10 and 150/1 is about right.

Cannondale Garmin and IAM are both around 150/1, neither of them will trouble the podium, but I'd marginally favour IAM in any matchbets they might be pitched together in. Katusha, AG2R, FDJ and all the rest are only here to make up the numbers, there will be no shocks in this event.

So I think it's going to be tight - Etixx-QS could put in a big performance and could push BMC all the way for the win, with OGE and Tinkoff Saxo fighting it out for the 3rd place. I think BMC will just have the edge though and at the prices I am backing Tinkoff-Saxo at 25/1 to round out the podium. Oh and a tip for the U23 ITT on Monday - Ryan Mullen is too big at 11/4 with Bet365, he was 10/3 when they opened and I hit that, 11/4 is still a good price - he is only 6/4 with PP. i'll try to write a short preview for that by Monday as part of the ITT preview I'm planning to write.

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