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- Published on Friday, 21 August 2015 01:40
Vuelta a España Jersey Betting
Who's going to win the other key Jerseys?
The Red Jersey of the Vuelta race leader is a pretty distinct jersey in cycling, going against the traditiional yellow as used in so many other races. But it's not the only jersey in the Vuelta that gets a change of colour, with the King of the Mountains leader's jersey a distinctive blue polka-dot. The Points leader's jersey is a more common green though.
These competitions are just as hard to predict, if not harder than the overall GC winner. In the GC at least you can probably narrrow it down to about 5 guys. The KOM jersey in the Vuelta could genuinely be won by about 25 guys, if someone decides to go for it early, builds a decent lead and then gets in the breaks of the day on some of the bigger scoring stages, they could take it.. The Points jersey isn't as bad, but there is going to be a battle between sprinters/puncheurs and GC riders as stages are awarded equal points, regardless of the type of finish.
Points Jersey
Points Jersey
The Points competition in the Vuelta is always keenly contested, even if it doesn’t get the same quality and quantity of sprinters as the Tour de France. It shares a similarity with the Tour’s jersey, in that it is green at least, unlike the KOM jersey which has blue polka dots and the leader’s jersey, which is red.
Where the Points Jersey in the Vuelta differs from the Tour though is in the way that points are awarded to the winners of stages. In the Tour they award more points to sprint stages than to mountain stages, but in the Vuelta the same amount of points are awarded to each stage winner, so you therefore get more of the GC contenders in the running for the points jersey. This was to the detriment of John Dekenkolb in 2012 when he won no fewer than five stages, yet only finished 4th in the points competition as he was nowhere to be seen once the road tilted upwards.
Sprinters can win it though, as Degenkolb demonstrated just one year later when he won it by 23 points from Valverde, with Contador, Froome and Rodriguez behind him. Mark Cavendish also won it in 2010. John Degenkolb is back to defend his title, but I'm not sure we'll be seeing a sprinter win it this year though.
The Contenders
Alejandro Valverde - With the nature of the course, with 9 summit finishes and plenty more climbs out of the road, I think the GC candidates will be fighting it out for the Green Jersey this year. And who better to be at the finish in regular sprint stages, uphill sprint stages and tough summit finishes other than Valverde. I think he has a massive chance of winning this prize again, he has an incredible record in the points competition in the Vuelta.
His record reads as follows: 2nd ('14), 1st ('13), 1st ('12), 2nd ('09), 3rd ('08), 3rd ('06) and 2nd ('03) - Every time he has completed a Vuelta he has finished in the top 3 in the Points competition. He is perfect for it and he is in superb form this year too on top of it. The only thing that could derail his challenge is fatigue after the Tour, he did go quite hard in support of Quintana in the last week. He had to be backed at the 5/2 though that Paddy Power opened with, I took 4pts of that, he is best price 7/4 now with Boyles and I think that is still worth taking, I'd have him closer to the evens he is with Hills and Skybet.
Chris Froome - Like Valverde, he should be there or thereabouts on all the summit finishes and should pick up lots of points on the mountainous days. He may even do well on some of the shorter hilly sprint finishes if they become a GC battle, but he will not be involved in anything resembling a flat sprint. The two times he has completed the Vuelta he has done well in this competition - 6th in 2012 and 4th in 2014. He should take at least one stage victory you'd think and will be in the top 5 on most mountain stages, unless the wheels really come off for him, which can happen. It won't be a primary target for Froome though, but like with the KOM jersey in the Tour, he could win it by accident just by winning stages. I thought he might be 5 or 6/1 so the 10/1 with Ladbrokes offers a little e/w value, but not a lot.
Peter Sagan - well here's a fly in the ointment, a puzzle to consider.. Sagan wasn't supposed to be doing the Vuelta, but then at the start of this week there were rumours he was going to start the Vuelta, and this was confirmed when the team selection was released (I got word before that but not a lot of value in that info!)
I hadn't seen that coming though and I don't think many people did, Sagan has spent the last two weeks it seems on holidays with his girlfriend, visiting friends and family and doing the odd criterium, in one of which he popped a wheelie after winning it and went back over on his ass. You can see why he wants to give it a go though, he was in superb form in the Tour and a lot of the stages will suit him. You could possibly see him finally taking a Grand Tour stage win for the first time since the 2013 TDF!
The big question though with regards the betting is whether he will actually even finish the race. If he goes for the Jersey and decides to stay until the end of the race he has a big chance of winning the competition. He has said though that he thinks the Vuelta would be good training for the World's in Richmond, a race in which he has a good chance of a big result this year. Will he want to do the full Vuelta or will he look to get a few hard weeks training in and then pull out in the last week? It's very possible I think so it's a minefield betting on him to win it with that in mind. I think that is why he is available at between 12/1 and 16/1, if they really thought he would stay the two weeks, he'd be half that price.
Joaquim Rodriguez - With the course the way it is, with lots of tough uphill finishes, you'd have thought Purito would be one to watch in this race from the Green and the KOM jersey point of view, but I'm not that excited about backing him at just 7/1, he's as short as 5/1. He looked pretty average to me at times in the Tour and was no match for the stronger guys on most of the tougher stages. He looked tired at times in the last week of the Tour and I'm not sure he will have got his zip and his spark back so soon after, he didn't have much spark or zip in the Tour. He has finished 5th, 4th, 2nd and 3rd in the competition in the last four years though, but I think it will be 2nd to 5th at best for him again this year.
Nairo Quintana - If Froome and Valverde are possibly going to be in the mix because of stage wins and high finishes, then surely Quintana will be too if he wants to win this race. The little man will not score many points outside of the big stages though so I can't seen him winning this competition, even at 10/1. I'd rather back him for the KOM e/w.
Dan Martin - Dan Martin could score points on the lumpy stages, but I don't think it will be enough to win the competition, but if he can place high up in a lot of the shorter, punchy climb stages and maybe win a stage and finish well in some of the big mountain stages, he might just come close to the top 3, but even the 66/1 isn't really tempting me.
John Degenkolb - So that's the GC candidates covered, and Sagan, what about the sprinters? As I said above, the race seems to favour the GC/climber types as sprint stages get the same amount of points as mountain stages, and there are definitely more opportunities for the GC men/climbers than the sprinters. Having said that, Degenkolb did win the jersey last year from Valverde and Froome, so it can be done. Degenkolb hasn't raced since finishing 8th on the Champs Élysées, after taking seven top 10 places. He was very unlucky on the stage to Cambrai when Tony Martin's breakaway denied him the stage win but the few sprints that are on offer here should be right up his street.
He has a pretty decent record in the Vuelta - in the last two editions he has entered he has won four stages in each, in 2014 and 2012. Despite winning the four stages in 2012 he only finished in 4th place in the Points competition, behind the three Spanish climbers, with Valverde taking it off Rodriguez on the very last stage, winning by just 6 points. Degenkolb was 50pts off of Valverde despite winning 4 stages to his 2. And that's the problem he might face this year too - he might win several stages in the race, but his inconsistency in the rest of the race may well cost him again.
Another complication with Degenkolb is whether he will finish the race too, or will he rest up for the World's, he should go well in Richmond also. All depends on whether he is still in with a chance or not I guess, but as most of the tough hill stages are in the first two weeks he could be too far behind to want to continue. If he is in with a shout though, the 14/1 on him might look like a pretty decent each-way bet.
Nacer Bouhanni – Nacer was one of my picks for the Tour at 25/1 and I was very disappointed to see him crash out so early out of the race, as he decided he couldn’t carry on any further after yet another crash on stage 5. He never really got a chance to prove himself, but he seems to have come out of his recovery in fine form, winning his first race back at the end of August, the Circuito de Getxo in Spain, beating Lobato and Rojas. He has also just won two stages in a row in the Tour de L'Ain last week.
On paper he is probably the best flat sprinter here, there’s no Cavendish, Kittel or Greipel to worry about, so he should be right up there in all of the sprint stages. The only problem is that there is not a lot of them, so he will basically have to finish in the top 3, if not win, every sprint stage that's available. He is far more likely though to make it to Madrid in with a shout than any of the other sprinters, so the 16/1 with Corals might be an alright dabble each-way.
Aru is too short for me at 16/1 (way too short at 12/1) as I think it could be all or nothing with him sometimes and his inconsistency could cost him. Same for Landa at 40/1. Matteo Pelucchi might be an interesting character though, he has been riding well recently, taking two stages in the Tour of Poland, one after the other, beating the likes of Kittel and Nizzolo.
Kristian Sbaragli for MTN Qhuebeka might go well in some stages but won't be consistent enough to trouble the favourites here. Kris Boekcmans and Tosh Van Der Sande for Lotto-Soudal could go well on some stages, but again, no chance in this competition. Dani Moreno might be let off the leash if Rodriguez isn't 100% and he could go well but he's too short at just 33/1. I can't really see any other riders coming close to winning the jersey though.
This looks like it's there for the taking for Valverde again, I think he will be a big factor in the outcome of this race and will be involved in a large amount of stage finishes. His consistency and experience should see him take the prize, possibly as a consolation prize for helping Quintana winning the overall. John Degenkolb and Nacer Bouhanni can come close, Peter Sagan may not finish..
Recommendations:
4pts win on Alejandro Valverde at 5/2 with Paddy Power. (take the 7/4 with Boyles or look to get around 2/1 on Betfair)
0.5pts each-way on John Degenkolb at 14/1 with Corals
KOM Jersey
King of the Mountains Betting Preview
The KOM competition in the Vuelta is similar to the KOM in the Tour de France in that the leader wears a polka-dot jersey, but it differs in that it's blue polka-dots and not red! It hasn't always been that way though - ever since it was first introduced in 1935 it was actually a green jersey the leader wore, until it was changed to an orange jersey in 2006 and then in 2010 it became a blue polka-dot jersey. Spaniards have won the jersey on 47 times out of 68, with José Luis Laguia winning it a record 5 times.
There are also differences in the categories, in that the Vuelta has four categories compared to five in the Tour, Cat 1,2, 3 and Especiale climbs, but when a stage finishes on the top of an Esp climb more point are awarded. More points again for the Cima Alberto Fernández for the highest point in the race, this year on the Alto Ermita de Alba on stage 16. The full points breakdown are to the right.
There are 16 Cat 3 climbs, 9 Cat 2 climbs, 17 Cat 1 climbs, 2 Especiale climbs and the one Cima Alberta climb. Luis Leon Sanchez was a bit of a surprise winner last year on 58pts from Contador and Valverde, it's unlikely he will win again this year given that he will probably be working for the three team leaders. The big stages to watch out for for the big points are stages 7, 9, 11, 14, 15, 16 and 20. It's possible that it could come down to the 20th stage with its four Cat 1 summits on the day, winning the first three in a break will give 30pts and could move someone in to an uncatchable lead even if they're caught on the final climb.
The Contenders
We have to start with Nairo Quintana as he should be right up there at the front on all the summit finishes, including the especiale climb on stage 16. He was clearly the best climber in the Tour once he got going, he should be coming in to this race in good shape and with good confidence after destroying the rest of the field once he got going on the climbs of the final week. Once Nairo kicks and kicks again there aren't many who can stay with him. #
He will be out for revenge in this race after blowing his chance of winning the TDF so early in the race, and he shouldn't fear any of these guys on the really steep, big climbs. He will have Valverde helping him out like in the Tour, attacking earlier in the climbs, teeing him up for the late attacks, but I think he will have learned a lesson at the Tour and may go earlier on some of these tough climbs.
He needs to have more confidence in himself and look to go for the jugular with a bit more venom, he looks almost docile and not very dominant on a bike, he needs to start throwing his weight around a bit more, all 58kgs of it! It all depends on how the race is going of course - in the Tour he was on the chase after a disastrous start and had to go on the attack late in the race. It meant that he got enough KOM points to finish runner-up to Froome, just 11pts behind him, but with Froome racking up points on a number of stages and winning on La Pierre St Martin, Froome won the jersey by accident more than design. Nairo needed a stage win to take the top points but was denied by Thibaut Pinot on Alpe d'Huez and by Nibali on La Toussuire, otherwise he'd have won the jersey.
I think he again has a big chance of taking the jersey, but it might all depend on him winning the key mountain stages, which I think he will have to do to win the race overall. Stages 14, 15 and 16 are going to be the key stages with three summit finishes in a row, including the Cima Alberto Fernandez on stage 16 which awards 20pts to the winner. I think Nairo will be targeting this stage, not solely for the KOM points but to possibly press home an advantage gained in the previous two stages, or maybe even to try to reduce a gap if things haven't gone to plan and he's behind. And in the nightmare scenario that he has had some incident or accident that has put him out of the GC running, then this prestigious stage with all those KOM points might become a big objective. 8/1 looks very big to me, I think he is a decent each-way bet, but I prefer the security of an extra place with Boyles who are 7/1 but are paying out on the top 4 in the KOM competition.
Chris Froome won the KOM jersey in the Tour, but as I said above, I doubt very much that was his intention setting out at the start of the race. He is not the kind to go actively seeking KOM points when a GC is at stake, they just sort of come to him because of his superiority in the hills. Add in a stage win on a summit finish and a couple of top 5 placings and he took the prize. Something that no doubt helped him during the Tour though was the lack of outside competition for the KOM prize - Purito tried a little but was ineffective, Rolland was never a contender really, he was just holding on for dear life to a top 10 placing. There was no Arredondo (looking after Mollema like I said he would be, can't believe people were backing him), Kruiswijk (very disappointing, can't believe I backed him!), Hesjedal, Majka, Valverde.. they never really got a blow in at all.
I am not backing Froome though for the jersey this time - I think he might be off the pace on some of these finishes and I'm not certain he'll win a stage either so no bet for me at just 10/1
Amets Txurruka is the 13/1 3rd favourite for this competition with Bet365, he's as short as 10/1 with PP. I have backed him several times for KOM competitions and he has always let me down, I can't see why he wouldn't do it again, especially at those short odds. Winner of the KOM in the Tour des Fjords, 2nd in Pais Vasco, 3rd in the Tour de Beauce, he has been chasing KOM points all year. They're not exactly the Vuelta though and this is a different league altogether, but it looks like his season revolves around this race. I fancied him last year, he came 21st in the KOM competition. the year before 6th, in 2010, 34th. So nothing special there either. I'm going to pass this time.
Fabio Aru or Landa could go well in the competition, as they plan to be agressive and active, but I'm not sure they will be targeting this. Aru will be all out for GC and stage wins, but the KOM could come on the back of that. Landa I think will be working and may get a chance to attack and mix things up, so could take points that way. But too much uncertainty for me at the moment.
Others? Rodolfo Torres is one I am interested in at a tasty price of 33/1. Torres rides for the Colombia team and is a top-class climber - he has won the KOM jersey in three different stage races already this year - in the Vuelta Asturias, the Giro del Trentino and the Tour de San Luis. He has vowed to be competitive and to go on the attack and he has ambitions to give the KOM a shot - "My goals will be to be combative day after day, giving my best, and possibly go for a stage win. The KOM jersey is something I would like, as that jersey means a lot for Colombians and for our team."
2nd in the Tour de San Luis this year, 8th in the Vuelta a Castilla y Leon, 12th in the Giro Trentino, 12th in the Vuelta Asturias, 7th in the Vuelta a Burgos, he has done extremely well in shorter stage races this year and looks to have shaped his recent preparation all towards the Vuelta, not racing since mid-June and then doing the Vuelta a Burgos, finishing 5th on the Queen stage to Lagunas de Neila. He's a long shot in terms of he will need to go on the attack and try to steal points mid stage, he may not be able to stay with the likes of Quintana and Aru on the summit finishes. But at 25/1 now with those ambitions and his ability he's worth a shot - knowing that he is planning to be agressive and try for the jersey means a lot.
AG2R have Domenico Pozzovivo who could be an outside shot at this prize. Pozzovivo may be looking to go for a good GC placing, but if not, he is also a possible candidate for the KOM jersey. A sprightly, bouncing climber, if anything happens to his GC chances early on he might swith his focus to the KOM Jersey instead. Also, it would be a great way to mark his comeback from that horrible injury at the Giro. 40/1 might interest some.
Others that could get involved? Madrazo, Arroyo or almost any of the other Caja Rural guys! Several others of the Colombia team like Duque, Quintero or Rubiano or Johan Esteban Chaves for Orica GreenEdge. Darwin Atapuma for BMC could be a dark horse for the prize too, he could be sent up the road to ease pressure on BMC to work on the hilly stages or if anything happens to TVG he could become their team leader.
This is a very hard market to work out as I said, it's going to be GC men versus the break away guys, so I think I'll back one of each! Quintana is my pick from the Favourites, I think he could win a few stages and will rack up big points. Torres is my outsider and might give us a run for our money in the breaks, PP and Corals are paying 4 places at 25/1..
Recommendations:
1pt each-way on Nairo Quintana at 7/1 with Boyles paying 4 places
1pts each-way on Rodolfo Torres at 33/1 with PP paying 4 places (take the 25/1 now)
